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- 2006-3-3
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State of the Union, Oil Addiction and Action verses Words
By Peter Lynch
After hearing President Bush give the State of the Union speech the other night I came away thinking
that at least he has recognized that there is a problem. It may not sound like much, but it is a step
(a very small step) in the right direction. Unfortunately, these initial “words” must be followed by
significant “actions” and this is precisely where every U.S President since Richard Nixon has failed
miserably. In fact, since U.S. Presidents first started talking about “getting off oil” the amount of oil we
import has DOUBLED, not a particularly promising trend.
So now that we have taken our “first small step”, what America and the world needs now, is a plan.
A short term plan and a long term plan (50years) that lays out the problem and what we have to do go get the planet off of oil and other fossil fuels and on to various renewable sources of energy – solar,
wind, biomass etc.
Unfortunately, it is becoming quite apparent that the current administration does NOT have a plan and
is therefore taking a very shortsighted approach to “financing” our energy future. We are depleting our “energy capital” (oil, gas and coal) by utilizing them at a far greater rate every year, with very little
thought given to the long-term (50+ years) consequences.
The major problem in the current energy focus is that our current primary energy capital (fossil fuels) is
NOT replaceable; it is by its very nature “non-renewable”. As a result, our responsibility as managers of
our planets future and its energy portfolio is to create an “energy balance sheet” that has the proper
mix of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources to allow growth for all the world’s inhabitants over the
long term.
It should be obvious that we should not be using “limited” fossil fuel assets for jobs that can be done by “unlimited” renewable assets.
A simple but accurate example: fossil fuels should NOT be utilized for applications, such as home or
commercial building heating. Does it seem logical or a “good idea” to burn something at thousands of
degrees to produce heat at 75 degrees for your house? This task could be much more efficiently
accomplished with a simple solar panel that produces 160-degree heat, with zero emissions as an
additional benefit.
The main problems, as I see it, are: lack of leadership and lack of education.
1. Lack of Leadership - America’s failure, to assume a leadership position to organize the world’s
resources to address and solve this problem.
Obviously the world cannot address a problem of this magnitude without the assistance and cooperation of the world’s richest country and consumer of 25% of all the energy on the earth. What we need
is a well thought out Long Term Energy Plan and, in the short term, a new “Marshall Plan” for Energy.
To date the current U.S. administration has done virtually nothing to give the impression that they
consider this to be a serious crisis. Yes they do say a few “key” words every now and then, but to
date I have seen no commitment and no real action. There is a growing feeling that much of the rest
of the world sees a problem and the U.S. does not. This has to change and hopefully the current
administration or perhaps the next will awaken to the critical nature and magnitude of the problem we
are facing.
As one of the great men of the 20th century and one of our greatest Presidents said 99 years ago:
“We have become great because of the lavish use of our resources and we have just reason to be
proud of our growth. But the time has come to inquire seriously what will happen when our forests are gone, when the coal, the iron, the oil, and the gas are exhausted, when the soils shall have still further
impoverished and washed into the streams, polluting the rivers, denuding the fields, and obstructing
navigation…The natural resources I have enumerated can be divided into two sharply distinguished
classes accordingly as they are or are not capable of renewal…The minerals do not renew themselves.
Therefore in dealing with the coal, the oil, the iron, metals generally, all that we can do is try to see
that they are wisely used. The exhaustion is certain to come in time”. Theodore Roosevelt
If Theodore Roosevelt saw the handwriting on the wall in 1907 what is the problem with the current
administrations vision? To not tell the American people the full story and to not move forward with a
well thought out long term plan to effectively address this approaching crisis is a colossal failure of
leadership, which could result in a series of cascading economic problems worldwide.
2. Lack of education - I truly believe that people will “do the right thing”, IF they are apprised of the
true facts and costs of all the alternative courses of action.
However, the American public is not getting nearly enough accurate information on this crisis and the
media, in general, puts little, if any, focus on this subject. As a result, the public is very poorly
educated on this critical subject.
For example, current polls tell us that the three top concerns of the American people are:
Terrorism
Iraq
The Economy
I would agree that this is a fairly accurate picture of what Americans are concerned about and that
these are all valid concerns and pressing problems. But are they the KEY problem that Americans
should be focused on and concerned about?
1. Terrorism - Terrorism is rooted in the mid-east (where most of the OIL that is left remains). We are
there because of OIL and we spend hundreds of billions per year “protecting” our oil supply.
2. Iraq - Iraq is the third largest producer of OIL in the world. I realize that Saddam was a dictator, but
so are half of the rulers in the third world and we are not “liberating” their countries, because they have no OIL.
3. The Economy - The economy is growing at this time. But if you want to cause a major problem with
the US economy just cut off its supply of OIL. Everything in our economy is dependent on fossil fuels
and our supplies of oil are much more limited, much less secure and the margin of error today is razor
thin. This is a very dangerous position both economically and strategically for our country to be in.
Before a solution to a problem can be applied, I think it is very important to understand the “true
cause” of the problem. It is my opinion that the “true underlying cause” of all three of these problems is: the world’s current total dependence on fossil fuels. As a result, this dependence is really our number ONE problem and the most serious by far.
All of this is the result of us failing to properly understand how to balance our worldwide energy portfolio and how to properly structure our energy balance sheet to include assets that will grow (renewable
sources of energy) and not only assets that will decline (fossil fuels). We all have to recognize the fact
that there are major problems in the energy area and we must face them directly and move to solve
them.
These “natural” resources are finite in nature and by their very definition are NOT renewable. As a
result, we are presently trapped in an upward price spiral which cannot cease unless the basic laws of
supply and demand change (unlikely) or we shift our strategy and thinking to one of energy capital
preservation, rational energy utilization and developing renewable assets.
Our thinking in the U.S. is to use as much as we want, based upon the FALSE premise there will always be enough or we will just find more. There is little thought given to conservation or the welfare of
future generations. This is precisely the thinking that got us into this tenuous situation and it will
certainly NOT be the thinking that will get us out of this predicament.
“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them”.
Albert Einstein
As long as we insist on being dependent on a non-renewable energy sources we will continue to have
price increase after price increase. It is like building a house in a valley that floods every time it rains.
When it rains, the basement floods (big surprise), complaining about the flooding will do nothing to
solve the problem. It is a much better idea not to build your house in the valley, but to move to
higher ground. We must take immediate steps to preserve our energy capital and rapidly expand and
develop our energy assets from renewable sources such as solar energy, wind and biomass.
We must “wake up”, face reality and change the current path we are on. If we do not take
responsibility for our current situation, and move swiftly to a financially stable and environmentally
sustainable path we will suffer the consequences of our shortsighted and financially irresponsible actions.
“To each generation comes its allotted task; and no generation is to be excused to perform that task.” Theodore Roosevelt
I think it is abundantly clear what the current allotted task is the current generation and I am also sure
that it is equally clear that the problem will NOT be solved magically by mere “words” but that focus,
sacrifice and committed action will be required.
The ball is in our court and the whistle to start play has just sounded.
J. PETER LYNCH has worked, for 28 years as a Wall Street analyst, an independent equity analyst
and a private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in
following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is considered to be an
expert in this area. .
資深人士的專業觀點，他在呼籲美國政府和人民應該正視“可再生能源問題“
p.s: Bull Market 最新的報告中除了原料問題，提到了一個最不確定的因素就是政府行為力,以及
新技術對現有技術的衝擊，誰也不知道明天會有個什麼新玩意顛覆了一切 |
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发表于 2006-3-7 09:46