美波浪理论大师：A股正处调整浪 观望为宜

ejgoipeop

美波浪理论大师：A股正处调整浪 观望为宜

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.shudaoyoufang.com) 作者：ejgoipeop 浏览：8396 回复：1

周三两市双双低开，早盘股指窄幅震荡，午后两市跌逾1%，随即国企改革概念股集体爆发，带动股指翻红。截至收盘，沪指涨0.21%报4026.04点，深成指涨0.76%报13416.54点。创业板指涨0.50%。

　　Marketwatch专栏作家Barbara Kollmeyer今日撰文指出，今日她有幸采访到了艾略特波浪理论的投资大师Steven Hochberg。他认为，美股与A股所处的浪型结构迥然不同，美股处于上升的第五浪的修正子浪中，A股处于调整浪中的B浪反弹，面临即将转向下跌趋势的拐点，去杠杆的过程仍未结束，投资者应采取保守稳健的投资策略，持币观望为上策，静待市场给出调整完毕，再起涨势的信号。

　　Kollmeyer写道，艾略特波浪理论是投资界最着名的理论之一，常常用来预测市场走势。

　　一个完整的运动包括五个浪，而且一个浪级的一组五浪完成下一个更高浪级的某一个基本浪；一旦某个级别的第5浪完成，就应当在这个运动中出现一个比先前任何一个调整浪都要剧烈的调整浪，某级别的调整浪一般由三个子浪ABC组成。

　　一般来说，第4浪不应该延伸到第2浪的水平，第2或4浪很少会抵消第1或3浪上涨。
[图片1.jpg ]

艾略特波浪理论的基本结构

　　要注意的是，三个基本浪，浪1、浪3和浪5的长度很少相同，三个浪中的一个浪通常比其他两个浪长得多，非常重要的是第3浪往往不会比第1浪和第5浪都短。

　　Elliott Wave International的首席市场分析师Steven Hochberg今日通过波浪理论为我们指点迷津，美股与A股分别处于哪个浪型结构，投资者该如何应对。

　　他接受采访时表示，艾略特波浪理论是R.N.Elliott在1930年代在美国发明的，该理论是建立在大众心理学之上，他发现大众心理能影响股市走势，特定的心理与气氛会塑造不同的K线走势，当市场情绪乐观高涨之时，就会走出上升浪结构，而市场悲观消极的时候就会走出调整浪。

　　利用艾略特的理论来看这些走势图形，预示了后期走势，全球不同市场处于不同的浪型结构中，比如美股处于上升的第五浪的修正子浪中，而目前的中国股市完全处于另一种状态中。

　　他表示，艾略特波浪理论适用于任何一个投资市场，因为参与者都会受到情绪影响及操控。

　　中国股市在2007年10月构筑历史大顶，与美股类似，顶部构筑完成后便展开了熊市下跌。上证指数从高点回落幅度超70%，随后就展开了大级别的ABC上升浪，也就是2009年出现的熊市中的反弹，就是下降趋势中的大反弹。
[图片2.jpg ]

　　Hochberg解释道，ABC是艾略特波浪理论里的一个术语，意指反向趋势。

　　而今2014年下旬至今，A股出现了快速上涨，但这轮上涨已经结束，在6月创下了阶段性高点，然后在短短18个交易日内深幅回调了35%，下跌速度虽不如美国股市1987年崩盘般迅猛，但是幅度已经相当接近，目前中国股市处于即将转向下跌趋势的拐点，近期创下的低点极有可能在未来数月被击破。

　　对于投资者而言，目前是一个两难的抉择，一方面，中国政府正在努力救市，维稳市场，正如1929年美国政府出手救市相同，2008年更是出台过禁止做空金融股的禁令，但是一旦下跌趋势形成，任何人为的措施都很难改变市场原有的运行节奏。

　　Hochberg指出，目前A股处于调整浪中的B浪反弹，去杠杆的过程仍未结束，投资者应采取保守稳健的投资策略，持币观望为上策，静待市场给出调整完毕，再起涨势的信号。
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