艾略特波浪理论——市场行为的关键

ejgoipeop

艾略特波浪理论——市场行为的关键

来自：MACD论坛(bbs.shudaoyoufang.com) 作者：ejgoipeop 浏览：8892 回复：1

　1、标准五浪：五浪形态的三个永恒之处：浪2永远运动得超过浪1的起点；浪3永远不是最短的一浪；浪4永远不会进入浪1的价格领地。

　　2、5+3模式：驱动5浪+调整3浪，驱动浪用1、2、3、4、5表示，调整浪用a、b、c表示，其中子浪又可以分为作用浪1、3、5+a、c ，反作用浪2、4+b

　　3、浪的变体：浪有很多变体，并不总是标准的波浪结构。驱动浪的延长、衰竭；调整浪的变体：倾斜三角形、锯齿三角形、平台形等。总之，市场上很多情况下都是以浪的变体形式存在，需要靠数浪的技术来明察秋毫。

　　4、浪中浪，子浪：浪的分解。

　　5、斐波拉契数列：黄金 分割，宇宙万物中冥冥中的规律，有点迷信却又被自然界所证实，黄金矩形、黄金螺线等等。黄金分割对波浪理论的应用在于浪的长度、高低点，与相邻或者特定浪之间形成黄金分割比例的关系，如下跌过程中会在黄金分给比例点位形成支撑，上涨过程中会在黄金分割点位形成阻力，但是这个有一定的概率，不是绝对的，不能以此作为依据，只能预测一种可能性，而不是预测确定性。黄金分割的比例：0.809、0.618、0.5、0.382、0.236，以及在上述数字上分别加上整数1、2、3等。

　　6、斐波拉契数列所形成的时间序列，或者时间窗口黄金比例。也就是黄金分割在时间上的应用，比如上涨周期所包含的天数（或者小时数）会形成黄金分割比例。

　　7、波浪通道：上升趋势通道、下降趋势通道，是一个平行的通道，上下界限相对明显。

　　8、贝纳理论：连续的8、9、10周期排列形成的时间窗口，与黄金分割有相似之处，可以被黄金分割所包含。

　　9、千年浪、甚超级循环浪、超级循环浪、循环浪。波浪理论在时间方面的扩大应用，包含一切可以计算的无穷大的时间浪。

　　10、波浪理论的无限扩大：可以扩大至普通商品市场、期货 市场，甚至是人类所以经济、文化等活动，都是按照一浪一浪的发展。这个有点悬，对股市分析意义不大，只是了解波浪理论的这个宗旨就行。

　　11、与波浪理论有关联的其他股市理论：道氏理论——主要是讲趋势的，《股市趋势技术分析》就是由道氏理论发展而来；循环分析法——周期性时间循环理论，与被波浪所有交叉；消息——消息不回改变波浪的本来运行规律，只是在短时间内会打乱波浪的运动，然后又会回到波浪规律之中。随机行走理论——认为市场是随机的没有任何规律因此也不需要去分析和预测，这个理论否定的一切分析，不可取；技术分析——也就是《股市趋势技术分析》，这个比波浪理论更具体，更围观，图形更明确，更具有可操作性。但是要注意，该书的作者也说了，趋势技术分析也是一种概率，这话说的实在。经济分析——可以理解为大环境的基本面分析，波浪理论自认为包含一切，当然也觉得波浪已经包含了经济的周期波动。

　　总结：波浪理论是艾略特在1930年代对照过去几十年道琼斯工业指数的走势图总结、分析而得出，后由普莱切特在1970年代经其著作《艾略特波浪理论——市场行为的关键》完善，因此本质上波浪理论就是一种事后总结性质的，它不可能准确的预测未来，它只是用来分析预测未来走势的可能性。波浪理论总体内容不是很复杂，没有复杂的体系，精髓就是5+3浪，但是要运用它却也不容易。它的难点在于准确数浪，以及正确界定并划分波浪的变体。就是这个变体理论，让波浪理论变得圆滑，能够自圆其说，却又给现实分析带来较大的难度。
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