Hong Kong: unemployment rate edged down further to 3.1% entering into 2014

高崎

Hong Kong: unemployment rate edged down further to 3.1% entering into 2014

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Hong Kong’s average seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined further to reach 3.1% for thethree month average ending in January (JP Morgan and consensus: 3.2%), the lowest point everreached since February 1998. Three-month average unemployed persons, after seasonal adjustments,declined 3,487 in January (vs. -2,415 in December). Seasonally adjusted, employed persons increased at1,311 in January (vs. +6,715 in December), with the sequential trend eased somewhat to 1.2%3m/3m saar (vs.+1.7% 3m/3m, saar by December). Meanwhile, three-month average labor force declined 4,148 in January (vs.+4,115 in December). According to the Census and Statistics Department (CSD), unemployment rates (in non-seasonally adjustedterm) fell in food and beverage service activities, and postal and courier activities sectors, while theunderemployment rate (1.4% for December) declined in construction, and cleaning and similar activitiessectors. The labor market remained tight entering into 2014, though the pace of employment growth slowed somewhatsince 2H13 (average employed persons increased 1,311 in January, compared to 2,716 in 2H13 and 9,139 in1H13). According to the latest Business Tendency Survey (BTS), expected changes in business situationeased somewhat entering into 1Q14, while the employment expectations remained positive across mostsectors except for the trade and wholesales (chart 3). This might suggest that the recent improvements inexternal demand led by the DM are yet to be reflected on the business sentiment and hiring expectations ofthe trade sector. Looking forward, we expect Hong Kong’s real GDP to expand in a moderate pace in thecoming quarters with full-year forecast at 3.2%oya for 2014 (vs. and estimation of 2.8%oya in 2013).