书不尽言,言不尽意。语言是永远无法表达人的灵性
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江恩关于跟随趋势的原话
Commodity prices obey the law of supply and
demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time. You must follow mathematical rules which Ihave proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must prove to yourself thatthe rules have always worked in the past and they will work in the future. Whenyou have the proof follow the rules and you will make speculation a profitableprofession. Your success depends on knowing the right kind of rulesand following them. Fundamental Rules Higher and lower rules For commodities toshow up trend and continue to advance they must make higher bottoms and highertops. When the trend is down they must make lower tops and lower bottoms andcontinue on down to lower levels. After a long time period of time whencommodities break into new lows they indicate lower prices and after a longperiod of time when they advance above old highs or old tops they are in astronger position and indicate higher prices Follow the main trend Commodities are never too low to sell aslong as the trend is down. Never sell short just because the commodities arehigh or because you think it is too high. Buy and sell according to definiterules and not on hope, fear or guesswork. Never buy a commodity just because itis low. There is usually a good reason why it is low and it can go lower. Rules for buying and selling The first thing to remember before youstart to apply any rules is that you must use a stop-loss order to protect yourcapital because you can be wrong or the market may change its trend. Prove all things and hold fast to that which is good When you do buy at new high levels or sell atnew low levels you are going with the trend of the market and your chances formaking profits are much better than guesswork or buying or selling on hope orfear. Prolonged advances After commodities have had a prolongedadvance and wind up with a fast, active, runaway market in most cases they comedown very quickly and much faster or in a shorter period of time than when theygo up Sharp decline in a short period of time This usually follows a rapid advance andthe first sharp declines which may last from one month to as much as sevenweeks usually corrects an overbought position and leaves the market in positionfor a secondary advance. When you are able to catch the extremes atthe end of any greattime cycle you can make a large amount of money in one year’s timetrading in fast active markets How to protect profits Once you have made profits it is yourcapital and stop loss orders must be used to protect it. The most dangerousthing you can do is to let a trade start going against you and lose back yourprofits. There are many rules in my book how to makeprofits trading in commodities which are not in this course of instruction andby using all the rules you will make greater success. Hope will ruin you, because it is nothingmore than wishful thinking and provides no basis for action. Fear will oftensave you if you act quickly when you see that you are wrong. The fear of themarket is the beginning of wisdom One grain goes up while another grain down Many people remember this high and buy allthe way down instead of selling Closing prices are more important, thelonger the time period in days, weeks, months or years when prices exceed oldhighs or break old lows, the greater the importance of the change in trendand the move up or down. Remember the general rule, when prices advanceto new high levels they generally react back to old tops, which is a safe placeto buy and when they decline below old lows, as a rule they rally back to theold lows, which is a safe place to sell. Buy with a 3 stop loss order when 50%decline from the highest selling level When prices advance after being far below50% point and reach it for the first time, it is a selling level or place tosell short, protected with a stop loss order of not more than 3 above the 50%price level |