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发表于 2012-12-7 16:16
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什么是真正的江恩振动法则？
有多少人曾经痴迷于研究江恩的波动率，而走进了死胡同绕不出来。其实这篇在1909出版的江恩访谈，只是概述了江恩角度线的基本原理，在江恩后期的著作中很少有提到波动率的说法。江恩理论核心的部分是时间周期的循环和时间价格均等性的发现，以及自然序列在市场中的自然法则应用。翻译的目的是希望提供这些背景知识给有兴趣的朋友分享这篇大师的经典之作。从而早日推开江恩理论的时间之门。
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威廉.D.江恩（1878年～1955年）是一名杰出的技术分析家。在如何使得投机成为一项有利可图的职业上，他也是一名多产的老师，一共撰写了七本书，并且开设了两门关于交易股票和期货的教程。但是，江恩最伟大的成就是他能够精确地预测股票和期货市场。江恩的预测方法基于所谓的“振动法则”（Law of Vibration）。
江恩的伟大发现（1908年8月8日）将近100年前，江恩做出了他最重要的发现。具体说，正如在江恩的一本名为《在期货和股票上为何亏损，以及如何赚钱》（1954年）的小册子中所记载：
“1908年5月12日，离开俄克拉荷马去往纽约市。8月8日，做出了用于预测股票和期货市场趋势的最伟大数学发现。从$300本金开始，赚到$25000。在另一账户里，从$130开始，在30天里赚到$12,000。”
1908年8月8日，江恩30岁。1954年写作《在期货和股票上为何亏损，以及如何赚钱》这本小册子时，他已经76岁了。江恩无疑在1908年8月8日做出了一项重要发现，因为他在46年后想起了准确的日期。1909年12月，在其重要发现之后16个月，他与《交易与投资文摘》杂志做了一次访谈。这次访谈的总体结论是，江恩已经发现了一种独一无二的，精确地预测股票和期货市场的方法。这种预测【方法】基于所谓的“振动法则”，在实际操作中，他获得了极大的成功。
GANN 对振动法则的解释：
The following is the part of the famous Ticker interview in which W.D. Gann gives his explanation of the Law of Vibration. 下面是著名的《交易与投资文摘》杂志对GANN的采访部分。W.D.GANN给出了他对振动法则的解释。
"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject.
过去十年中，我已经在投机市场投入了我全部的时间和精力。像许多人那样，我损失了数千美元，经历了市场经常出现的上下起伏。如果初学者没有足够的有关知识就进入市场，遇到这种情况是难免的。
"I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether lawyers, doctors, or scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it.
我很快认识到，所有成功的人，无论是律师、医生还是科学家，都花费了许多时间研究调查他们所追随的目标和职业，然后再试图从中赚钱。
"Being in the brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety per cent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end.
成为经纪人管理大型的账户后，我获得了一般人很少能够得到的机会，研究其他人在投机市场中成功和失败的原因。我发现百分之九十的交易者进入投机市场是没有掌握有关的知识，最后都是输掉为止。
"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession.
很快我就开始注意到，股票市场和期货市场的价格起伏中呈现周期性循环。根据这种现象我得出结论：自然法则是市场运动的基础。然后我决定，专注的研究自然法则，以便能够应用到投机市场中，以最大的精力投入到投机市场，这是个利润巨大的职业。
After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.
经过对相关学科的彻底研究和调查，我发现振动法则（law of vibration）使我能够精准地确定某些位置，在这些位置股票和商品期货的价格将在给定时间周期内上升和下降。通过研究振动法则我能够确定价格起伏的原因，能够得到大大领先华尔街的预测结果。大多数的投机者都验证了这样的事实，正是紧紧关注结果而忽略原因的做法导致了他们屡屡受损。
"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets, however, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible.
若要给出一个合适地定义我应用于市场的振动法则几乎是不可能的，然而外行们也许可以通过下面的描述把握一些原则。我认为，振动法则是无线电波、无线电话和照相技术所依据的基本法则，没有这个法则的存在，上述的发明是不可能的。
"In order to test out the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labor in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library of New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould. Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt, and all the other important Wall Street manipulators from that time to the present day.
为了验证上述观点的有效性，数年来我不仅辛勤工作，而且在纽约的阿斯托图书馆和伦敦的大英博物馆花费了九个月的日日夜夜，翻阅了从１８２０年开始的股 市记录。我无意中偶然发现了Jay Gould、Daniel Drew、Commodore Vanderbilt和华尔街其他著名操盘手从过去到现在的操作记录。
I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to and from the time of E. H. Harriman's securing control, and can say that of all the manipulations in the history of Wall Street, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law.
我曾经检验过Union Pacific公司从哈里曼（E．H．Harriman）牢固控盘那个时代的股票行情。可以说在华尔街的历史上，在所有的操盘手中哈里曼先生是最杰出的。数据显示，无论哈里曼先生是有意识还是无意识地，他都严格地按照自然法则操作。
"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks and there exists a periodic or cyclic law, which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity.
对市场历史以及大量相关统计资料的分析表明，股票价值的变化和波动显然是由确定的规则所控制的，因此存在周期性的或者说循环的法则，这些法则是所有价格变化的基础。观察表明，在交易市场中异常活跃的交易往往是在一段不活跃的时期之后出现。
Mr. Henry Hall, in his recent book devoted much space to 'Cycles of Prosperity and Depression’ which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.
亨利．霍尔先生在最近的著述中花了很大的篇幅描述“繁荣与萧条的循环”，他发现了繁荣与萧条以一定时间为间隔的周期重现。我所用的法则不仅定义了这些 长期循环或震荡，而且也定义了每个交易日、甚至股价以小时为单位的波动。通过了解每单个股票精确的波动率，我可以确定在什么价位市场会得到支持，在什么价位上市场会遇到最大的阻力。
"Those in close touch with the markets have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the Law of Vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline.
密切接触市场的人会注意到市场的潮涨潮落现象，也就是股价起伏。在某些时间，市场会变得很活跃，创出更高的成交量，在另一些时候，相同的股票可能会几 乎保持静止，只有很小的成交量，非常不活跃。我已经发现振动法则主宰和控制着这些情况的出现。我也发现某些阶段，振动法则主宰着股市上涨，而完全不同的规则主宰着股市下跌。
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发表于 2012-8-5 11:47
