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发表于 2010-3-5 22:58
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［补补课］#*29*#
杯柄形
杯柄形是一种持续上升的形态，它跟随上通道的突围而形成一段整理的时间。杯柄形是一种持续上升的形态，它跟随上通道的突围而形成一段整理的时间。 杯柄形态可分为两部份: 杯及杯柄。杯柄形态可分为两部份:杯及杯柄。 当某时段价格上涨，一个杯形随之而形成，它的外观好像一个碗或者圆底，亦像是一个呈U字的形态。当某时段价格上涨，一个杯形随之而形成，它的外观好像一个碗或者圆底，亦像是一个呈U字的形态。 因为与V形相比，U形比较平坦，故此杯形可以确定是一种在底部具有强烈支持的整理形态。因为与V形相比，U形比较平坦，故此杯形可以确定是一种在底部具有强烈支持的整理形态。
当杯形形成後，短期的成交，便是杯柄的进化期。当杯形形成后，短期的成交，便是杯柄的进化期。 由杯柄范围随後突围，并提供一个较强烈的上升趋势讯号。由杯柄范围随后突围，并提供一个较强烈的上升趋势讯号。 通常杯柄的回调越短暂，越形成上升趋势及加强突围。通常杯柄的回调越短暂，越形成上升趋势及加强突围。 当突围出现时，成交量明显是上升的。当突围出现时，成交量明显是上升的。
以上为例，在遇到A点的阻力位前，价格正在上升。以上为例，在遇到A点的阻力位前，价格正在上升。 不到六个月，杯的形态已形成，而且相遇阻力位B点。不到六个月，杯的形态已形成，而且相遇阻力位B点。 价格随後徘徊在同一个交易价格约一个月，然後穿破阻力位，确认了杯柄形。价格随后徘徊在同一个交易价格约一个月，然后穿破阻力位，确认了杯柄形。 成交量也提供了一个明确的指标，确认这图形的准确性。成交量也提供了一个明确的指标，确认这图形的准确性。 因成交量在破位前后增加，代表出现大量买家。因成交量在破位前后增加，代表出现大量买家。
Cup with Handle（带柄杯子形态）
Cup with Handle（带柄杯子形态），又写作cup-and-handle。The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks.
1988年欧奈尔在《如何在市场中获利》一书首次对这一形态的分析。CWH（Cup with Handle）被定义为牛市中的持续形态，是一种突破前巩固阶段的技术形态。
As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.
大幅度上涨后形成了一个看似碗型的U型，这是杯。在U型的右侧形成一个交易带，这是柄。随后，柄的突破是一个持续原有上涨的信号。
Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
要点一：原趋势要处于发展期，不能处于成熟期。如果处于成熟期，那么趋势继续发展的可能性减小，持续形态也就不可能了。
Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
要点二：U型是重要的形态标志，不能是V型。因为只有柔和的U型才能证明底部有效的支撑能力。两个杯沿如果相等将是一个完美的形态，但这并不多见。
Cup Depth(the distance from the bottom to the right peak). : Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.
要点三：遵从道氏理论，杯的深度应该小于前期涨幅的1/3。如果处于一个活跃的，过度反映的市场那么会深达1/2。只有在极端的情况下，才会触及2/3位。
Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
要点四：右杯沿形成后的杯柄，有时是向下倾斜的旗型或者是三角形，有时只是一个短暂的回调。杯柄代表了形态最后的确认，振荡的范围不会超过杯高的1/3。确认的规模越小，之后的突破的能量就越大。有时杯柄的形成是出于谨慎的需要，为突破阻力而做的准备。
Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.
要点五：持续期从一到六个月不等，有时在周线上出现会更长些。杯柄的形成需要一个或几个星期，比较理想的时间是1-4周。
Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
要点六：突破杯柄的阻力位时需要成交放大的配合
Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
要点七：目标位的测量依据是杯高的1:1投射
As with most chart patterns, it is more important to capture the essence of the pattern than the particulars. The cup is a bowl-shaped consolidation and the handle is a short pullback followed by a breakout with expanding volume. A cup retracement of 62% may not fit the pattern requirements, but a particular stock's pattern may still capture the essence of the Cup with Handle.
对于形态分析来说，把握其实质意义比仅仅识别图形的特色更为重要。 |
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发表于 2010-3-5 22:56
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