- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-3-23 17:50
|
显示全部楼层
Markets Rally Following a Week of Choppy Selling
Good day! I hope that you had a wonderful weekend! After a tumultuous week of trading, the market ended the week last week on a positive note. On Friday, June 6th the market had taken a rather sharp turn. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) had repeated a daily pattern that the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) had first formed on May 19th with a nice double top. Of course, it was not too nice if you were a bull since the pattern swiftly led to another week of downside. The indices had completed the pattern's typical follow through on Thursday, however, and this left the door open for a bit of a recovery into the weekend.
On Friday the Dow gained 165.77 points, or 1.4%, and closed at 12,307 with 28 of its 30 components green on the day. For the week overall, the Dow climbed 102 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 20.16 points, or 1.5%, last Friday and closed at 1,360, leaving it right about where it had been a week earlier. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 50.15 points, or 2.1%, on Friday and closed at 2,454. Although this was the strongest of the three on Friday, it had been beaten down throughout the week on heavy tech selling. Keep in mind that the Nasdaq had been holding up better than the overall market over the past month, but this relative strength came with a price: It also meant that it had the greatest room to move on the downside. The result was a loss on the week of 0.8%.
Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)
The economic data on Friday was rather interesting because the news was not terribly promising, and yet, combined with the market's larger daily support, the indices were still able to take it in a positive light. Ahead of the open the consumer price index was released, revealing a rise of 0.6% in May. This was more than the 0.5% anticipated, although the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% as expected. The modest gains in core inflation helped ease concerns that the Fed would soon begin to hike rates, which have become widely anticipated to take place several times by year end.
The indices opened higher following the CPI data. The opening price levels were mid-range within the price action of the previous two days and into the 5 minute 200 simple period moving average resistance in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Almost immediately this gap began to close, but volume declined at the same time as the price action, suggesting that there was no panic to the selling. This made it very easy for the buyers to regain control when the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment survey came out ahead of 10:00 ET.
Once again, the morning data was dismal on the surface because consumer sentiment slipped further in June to a 28-year low of 56.7, but at the same time this eased concerns of inflation for the year to come. One-year inflation expectations dropped from 5.2% in May to 5.1% in June. The market established its strongest move of the session following this news.
S&P 500 ($SPX)
The market rally that followed the consumer sentiment news took the indices into the gap zone from last Wednesday morning. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. closed this gap first. The Nasdaq had more room to move before that level hit, which I feel contributed to its ability to put in a stronger showing on Friday than the other two. By 10:30 ET each of the three indices had come into Wednesday's gap zone for price resistance and the move was now very extended on a 15 minute time frame. This allowed the indices to roll over throughout the remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon.
Since the upside in the morning was stronger than average and the support levels that were hitting were on larger intraday and daily time frames, this meant that the market would have a more difficult time correcting quickly in terms of price. The result was a pullback into 10:45 ET followed by congestion along the 5 minute 20 sma as the momentum shifted with a triangle formation along the highs. Within the triangle itself was an Avalanche into 11:30 ET and finally a breakdown into 12:30 ET where the momentum was able to increase somewhat on the smaller time frames. The larger bias held, however, and the indices rolled back over to favor the bulls with the onset of the pivotal 14:00 ET correction period. The indices closed at afternoon highs.
Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)
The breakdown last week completed a two-wave pullback in both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average coming off the mid-May highs. When trend moves are comparable they tend to come in wave of two or three. This has me expecting more upside this week as a reaction to the support zones which hit on Wednesday and Thursday and held into the weekend. The 20 day simple moving average is resistance if the market chops slowly up off the support, but we could easily see the market push back into the congestion from two weeks ago. This should be a pretty decent market this week for daytraders since we will likely see some nice back and forth action as the indices try to push back up into that zone.
posted by Toni Hansen @ 1:20 AM 0 Comments  
Economic Reports and Earnings Events This Week
Economic Reports and Events This Week
Monday, June 16, 2008
8:30a.m. Jun NY Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected -1.5. Previous: -3.23.
9:00a.m. Apr Treasury International Capital Flows: Previous: $80.4B.
1:00p.m. Jun NAHB Housing Market Index: Previous: 19.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
7:45a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Jun 14: Previous: +1.7%.
8:30a.m. 1Q Current Account Gap: Previous: -$172.9B.
8:30a.m. May Producer Price Index: Expected +0.1%. Previous: +0.2%.
8:30a.m. May PPI, Ex-Food & Energy: Expected +0.2%. Previous: +0.4%.
8:30a.m. May Housing Starts: Expected -5.5%. Previous: +8.2%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Jun 14:
9:15a.m. May Industrial Production: Expected +0.2%. Previous: -0.7%.
9:15a.m. May Capacity Utilization: Expected 79.7%. Previous: 79.7%.
5:00p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Jun 15: Previous: -45.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
There are no economic indicators scheduled for today.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Jun 14 Week: Expected -9K. Previous: +25K.
10:00a.m. May Conference Board Leading Indicators: Expected 0%. Previous: +0.1%.
10:00a.m. Jun Philadelphia Fed Business Index: Expected -11. Previous: -15.6.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For June 7: Previous: 0%.
Friday, June 20, 2008
There are no economic indicators scheduled for today.
Key Earnings Announcements This Week:
Monday, June 16, 2008
After: ADBE, LZB
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Before: BBY, FDS, GS
After: CLC
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Before: KMX, CMC, FDX, LNN, MS, SMTS
After: CWST, HWAY, IHS
Thursday, June 19, 2008Before: ATU, CCL, CC, GRB, SJM, MESA (?), PIR, PRGS
After: HRB (?), NINE (?), SMOD, PAY (?)
Friday, June 20, 2008
Before: WGO
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always double check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled.
posted by Toni Hansen @ 1:08 AM 0 Comments
Sunday, June 15, 2008Why was I expecting selling last week?
Question via email: How did you come to the conclusion that by the end of the week, there will be continued selling?
Answer: Hi! Good question! The analysis was based upon the daily time frame. The indices had just triggered a setup on that time frame and follow through was slated for 5 days, which, given that the trigger was the previous Friday, it put day 5 on Thursday. This is comparing the previous daily drop which began on 5/19 to the one which began on the 6/6.
posted by Toni Hansen @ 6:03 PM 0 Comments
Tuesday, June 10, 2008Trade Wrap 20080609
Hey gang,
I will not be in much this week intraday because my kids' brother whom I had in foster care with them is flying down with my mom for vacation for the next two weeks before all four of them head back to Iowa for July. I was only in for the afternoon on Monday with a trade in BRS from $47.02 short into $46.50 zone. I then posted the market support with the Dow at Friday's lows at 14:24 ET which was followed by the NQ support I had targeted in the morning column. The BRS short was my only trade for the day though. I will be around part of the day on Tuesday and Wed., but then gone all day on Thursday and Friday. I hope you have a wonderful trading week!
All my best,
Toni
posted by Toni Hansen @ 1:31 AM 0 Comments
Market Extends Losses Intraday
Good day! Although Monday's session ended mainly in positive territory, that fate was not well-established until the final hour of trade. The bears held the helm throughout a large portion of the session. Heading into the morning we had been expecting the potential for a bit of corrective action off Friday's afternoon lows, but followed by greater downside. The correction up off support was a little split though. The Nasdaq ($COMPX), which had extended gains to a much greater degree on a daily time frame, thus creating a bull trap type of pattern on Friday, had a harder time than the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI). Both of these indices hit highs three weeks to a month ago.
It is often said that one should short stocks or sectors showing the greatest relative weakness and buy those displaying the greatest relative strength. In truth, however, this is not always the best strategy. Often those securities which hold on the longest to a bias can have the strongest moves once they give way to the pressure already at play in the broader market. The greater the extension, the faster the rebound can be. Over the past two sessions, that has been the fate of the Nasdaq Composite.
Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)
Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. gapped slightly higher on Monday into the opening bell. The index futures had rallied on Sunday, accounting for the gains. The indices had then chopped around in Monday's premarket action, but the Nasdaq fell apart at the bell. Friday's selloff resumed on a large scale and the index plunged lower in the first 20 minutes of trade. The S&Ps and Dow also pulled back in the first 20 minutes off the highs of the opening bell, but the corrections were very minor. In the Dow it was more of a trading range, which broke higher with a strong move back into the previous 15 minute high from Friday around 10:15-10:30 ET.
S&P 500 ($SPX)
At the same time as the Dow ran into price resistance at earlier 15 minute highs, the S&Ps and Nasdaq also landed at the doorstep of resistance. The S&Ps remained stronger than the Nasdaq and pushed through the 5 minute 20 period simple moving average and into the 15 minute 20 sma. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq could not shake its own 5 minute 20 sma, which served as strong resistance near the zone of the opening prices. The market pulled back off these levels, but volume declined and the momentum was gradual in both the S&Ps and Dow. The downside continued to be stronger in the Nasdaq, which retested the morning lows at the same time as the stronger Dow hit its 5 minute 20 sma support.
Following this initial back and forth action in the indices, the market's momentum continued to shift. The upside slowed, while the downside picked up. This shift reached completion into the 13:00 ET correction period. At that point the S&Ps and Nasdaq were testing the 15 minute 20 sma resistance intraday on a third wave within the congestion. This is a typical point for a break from a range to give way and it did so quite well on Monday. Unfortunately I didn't make it back from a mid-day errand to catch the drop myself, but it was nearly textbook and brought with it some of the additional downside we had been expecting this week. In fact, it took it right smack into the first Nasdaq Emini (NQ) support zone that I gave yesterday of 1950 with a low at 1950.50... just two ticks off.
Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX)
The Nasdaq hit its larger support at the same time as the stronger Dow found support once again from Friday's lows. This came shortly after 14:00 ET around 14:15. The Nasdaq had a small 2B pattern on a 2 minute chart at that time with a lower low of just a tick or two on that time frame that helped form a small reversal pattern. This ended up being a rather decent move on a 5 minute time frame as well though and the Dow and Nasdaq both popped back into their 15 minute 20 sma levels. The S&Ps hit the 5 minute 20 sma at the same time and the market pulled back into 15:00 ET. News from Apple (AAPL) relating to its latest phone rocked the market a bit in the final two hours of trade. It had appeared that the market may attempt another push lower into the 15:30 ET correction period, but the boost in the tech stocks helped the indices close up off the lows.
The Dow gained 70.51 points on Monday and closed at 12,280. The S&P 500 gained 1.08 points and closed at 1,361.76. The Nasdaq Composite lost 15.10 points and closed at 2,459.
After two days of selling, the market was was shaping up for another bounce off support on a larger time frame. I had been hoping that we would see the 15 minute 20 sma hold as resistance past the closing bell since 2-day trend moves that hold this resistance level often offer strong intraday reversals on the third day of the trend. Despite the move lower in afterhours trade, the 60 minute time frames are starting to look like we will see a larger correction off support this week. There is room for another lower low first, however, with 2B potential on the Nasdaq. The larger weekly charts also remain bearish, which means that corrections off the 60 minute support levels can easily be very temporary. We will have to see how the momentum action plays out here though to get a better feel for the next wave of action to come. Slightly lower lows on a 60 minute chart with slower selling than the past two days will more likely pop the market sharply higher and this would not be as ideal for the bears unless it can then roll over at highs.
NQ (Nasdaq 100 Emini) support levels are 1950 and 1900. ES (S&P 500 EMini) support is at 1338. YM (mini-sized Dow Jones Ind. Average) support levels are 12000 and 11800.
posted by Toni Hansen @ 1:15 AM 1 Comments |
|
|
[复制链接]
Here is that "D" setup on CSIQ
The green circle is the entry with the red bar as the stop.
