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原帖由 wei_mi 于 2007-1-1 21:17 发表
新年向朋友们问好，贴一图。
建议楼主用15分钟OSC(5,17)更细致。
Trading the Elliott Oscillator
A divergence between the Oscillator and prices indicates a trend reversal. When the market has set new lows but the Oscillator does not, you have probably found wave 1 in Elliott terminology.
When you spot this divergence you could do your first trade and buy the market. At this juncture risk is high, so watch the market closely. Always sell when the market reaches a new low, since this could be the beginning of a renewed sell off.
Next a correction will take place, which is wave 2. Neither the market will reach new lows in wave 2, nor will the Elliott Oscillator. If wave 2 is complex, the oscillator will pull back to zero. A simple wave 2 on the contrary will hardly affect the oscillator. When the oscillator reaches zero you could buy again to profit from the coming 3rd wave, on the condition that the pattern of supposedly wave 2 is corrective (when it shows a lot of overlap and not a 5 wave)
Then the market will build wave 3, normally the strongest price movement. Both the indicator and the market will reach new extremes. As soon as wave 3 has gone beyond wave 1, the market will accelerate sharply.
The oscillator does not provide for an exit point in this time frame or wave degree, so you have to look at the sub wave of this wave degree. If you detect a divergence between sub wave 3 and wave 5 of the main 3rd wave, you have found your exit.
After wave 3 again a correction will take place in wave 4. Notice that wave 4 will be complex if wave 2 was simple and vice versa. Normally (90% of all 4th waves) the oscillator will at least retrace to zero in wave 4.
As long as the oscillator does not retrace more than 138.2% of the wave three peak, the correction is considered to be wave 4. If it retraces more prepare yourself for a decline, since there is a strong probability that the price rise was a corrective three wave in a contra trend price movement.
When the Oscillator reaches zero you could enter the market again to profit from wave 5, on the condition that the pattern of wave 4 was corrective.
Most of the time the market will make new highs in the 5th wave, but the oscillator won't come near its top in wave 3. This divergence is a strong sell signal, on the condition that the pattern of the 5th wave is complete.
If both the oscillator and the market make new highs, you will have to relabel the 5th wave to wave 3!
In addition it could be of importance to monitor the crosspoints of the Elliott oscillator and the moving average line a an early warning of a trend reversal.
[ 本帖最后由 tonywood 于 2007-1-3 16:05 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2007-1-3 16:03
楼主
发表于 2007-1-5 01:30
