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发表于 2007-2-25 17:08
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资料来源：http://www.aaii.com/stockscreens/performance.cfm
其中以詹姆斯·P·O·奥肖内西( O'Shaughnessy - Tiny Titans)的小泰坦尼克策略最佳,九年(1998~2006)获利达29.29倍,其次为马丁·茨威格(Martin Zweig Picks)的策略,九年(1998~2006)获利达21倍,而欧奈尔的策略同期仅获得10.55倍的收益,他的第三修正版(CANSLIM)策略表现更差----同期仅获得5.32倍的收益
詹姆斯·P·O·奥肖内西( O'Shaughnessy - Tiny Titans)的小泰坦尼克策略介绍：
Reasonable Runaways
Here you'll find details to screen for Reasonable Runaways stocks including variants for both
This was James O'Shaughnessy's most profitable strategy in What Works on Wall Street until he
Let’s use the thematic stock screening approach to pick Reasonable Runaways stocks.
Investing Universe
Market Capitalization
The original strategy looks for market cap >150M but it actually works with any Market Capita
In his latest book "Predicting the Markets of tomorrow" (*), O'Shaughnessy proposes Reasonabl
(*) In this book, O'Shaughnessy makes the case for Value stocks for the next 10-20 years and
Primary Theme
Reasonable Runaways is a Value strategy. O'Shaughnessy tested many value criteria: Price/Sale
His findings showed that low Price/Sales was the most consistent: Sales are more difficult to
Primary criterion: Price/Sales < 1
Now, other value criteria work as well: Price/Earnings <20, Price/Book < 1... This is good to
Secondary Theme
In the 2005 edition of What Works on Wall Street, O'Shaughnessy improved his Cornerstone Grow
He requires recent price momentum, that is 3 months and 6 months relative strength higher tha
Ranking and Holding Period
O'Shaughnessy popularized the 12 months Relative Strength as a Ranking parameter in mechanica
As for holding period, the stocks are held for 1 year which is the maximum reasonable for str
Reasonable Runaways Stock Screens
Here is a summary of Reasonable Runaways screening's parameters.
Screening Theme Reasonable Runaways
Investing Universe Any
Primary Theme Price/Sales < 1
Secondary Theme(s) 3 months Relative Strength > 50
6 months Relative Strength > 50
Ranking 12 months Relative Strength
Number Of Holdings 10 - 50
Holding Period 1 year
If you have MSN Deluxe Screener installed (Free), you can click on the following links to get
Notes:
MVP Value was proposed during the crazy 2000 bull market, so the Price/Sales < 6 may seem unr
Despite its tag as a "value investing strategy" (by construction, the Average Price/Sales of the portfolio will be < 1), Reasonable Runaways is quite volatile. This is due to the addition of Momentum.
If you're afraid of high volatility, remember that the strategy works with any Market Cap and you can stick to large cap (Market Cap>10B for instance). Such strategy still handsomely beats the market.
詹姆斯·P·O·奥肖内西( O'Shaughnessy - Tiny Titans)的小泰坦尼克策略改进版：
Tools / SIPRO Backtester / O'Shaughnessy Tiny Titan screen, and gradual LowPS+ like improvements on: October 28, 2006, 12:44:56 AM
Tiny Titans with constraint Price>1...and because I had problems with some acceptance of my input,
I sorted on %Rank-Rel Strength 52 week, instead of Rel Strength 52 week. Should be OK...
Note also that the Tiny Titan formula never talks about Price>1. But that seems OK, also.
Keep :[SI Price]>1
Keep :[SI Market Cap Q1]>25
Keep :[SI Market Cap Q1]<250
Keep :[SI Price/Sales]>0
Keep :[SI Price/Sales]<1
Sort Descending [SI % Rank-Rel Strength 52 week]
;Top :10
End
Job 126117
CAGR 37
GSD 32
Cycles 113
Ups/downs 62
Turnover 43
Avg.held 25
cagr/gsd 1.13
Next I made sure it was recently 80% of the recent high:
Keep :[SI Price]>1
Keep :[SI Market Cap Q1]>25
Keep :[SI Market Cap Q1]<250
Keep :[SI Price as % of 52 Week High]>80
Keep :[SI Price/Sales]>0
Keep :[SI Price/Sales]<1
Sort Descending [SI % Rank-Rel Strength 52 week]
;Top :10
End
Job 126116
CAGR 46
GSD 26
Cycles 113
Ups/downs 67
Turnover 52
Avg.held 25
cagr/gsd 1.75
adding:
Keep :[SI % Rank-Rel Strength 4 week]>85
(not much improved)
Job 126115
CAGR 49
GSD 28
Cycles 113
Ups/downs 68
Turnover 86
Avg.held 25
cagr/gsd 1.71
Tiny Titans very much like LowPS+ (for 25...only averaged 21)
Keep :[SI % Rank-Rel Strength 4 week]>85
Keep :[SI Price]>1
Keep :[SI Market Cap Q1]>25
Keep :[SI Market Cap Q1]<250
Keep :[SI Volume--Average Daily 10d]>10
Keep :[SI Price as % of 52 Week High]>89
Keep :[SI Price/Sales]>0
Keep :[SI Price/Sales]<1
Sort Descending [SI % Rank-Rel Strength 52 week]
;Top :10
End
Job 126114
CAGR 54
GSD 27
Cycles 113
Ups/downs 73
Turnover 89
Avg.held 21
cagr/gsd 1.98
Tiny Titans very much like LowPS+ (for 10)
Job 126304
CAGR 69
GSD 36
Cycles 113
Ups/downs 72
Turnover 89
Avg.held 10
cagr/gsd 1.92
for 15:
CAGR 60
GSD 32
Cycles 113
Ups/downs 71
Turnover 89
Avg.held 14
cagr/gsd 1.85
(my) Conclusion: LowPS+ similar criteria may improve the simpler O'Shaughnessy
马丁·茨威格(Martin Zweig Picks)的策略介绍：
Martin Zweig Stock Filter
In the realm of stock investment strategies, the two main schools are value and growth. Value investment strategies tend to seek out neglected or undervalued firms and growth investing looks for companies exhibiting sustainable or increasing growth in sales or earnings. But it is rare to find a purely growth-oriented or purely value-oriented stock selection strategy anymore; most screens only lean toward one style or the other. Martin Zweig, who was named stock picker of the year two years running in the 1990s by the Hulbert Financial Digest and is chairman of the Zweig Funds, leans toward the growth methodology. In his book "Martin Zweig's Winning on Wall Street" (Warner Books, 1997), he outlines his strategy for identifying companies with strong growth in earnings and sales, a reasonable price-earnings ratio given the company's growth rate, buying by insiders (or at least an absence of heavy insider selling), and relatively strong price action. The Zweig screen is based on his approach.
Arming Yourself
Zweig divides stock-picking into two categories-the shotgun approach and the rifle approach. The shotgun method, which Zweig advocates, entails screening publicly available data on a number of stocks using predetermined criteria. This more mechanical approach allows individuals to follow a large number of stocks at one time, spending a limited amount of time on any one company.
In contrast, the rifle approach involves the in-depth analysis of a select number of companies. The analysis may cover accounting methods used, trends in the company and industry, and a variety of economic variables impacting the company. Zweig points out, however, that this approach is unrealistic for the average individual investor because it requires full-time analysis of the market.
Strong Growth
One of the cornerstones of Zweig's stock-picking strategy revolves around what he terms as "reasonable gains in sales and earnings." To this end, he examines both absolute levels as well as growth from a variety of angles.
Earnings Stability
Zweig begins his search by examining quarterly earnings and sales. Here he requires positive growth in earnings per share between the most recent fiscal quarter and the same quarter the prior year. Same-quarter growth is a better benchmark than sequential-quarter growth because seasonal patterns are less likely to be an influence. Zweig also examines the same-quarter growth in earnings per share going back several quarters. He warns of stocks with negative or "skimpy" growth rates on a same-quarter basis.
The first filter specifies that the same-quarter growth rate in fully diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for each of the last four fiscal quarters is greater than zero.
Sales Growth
Since sales drive earnings, Zweig is also interested in companies that maintain their sales as well as those that are experiencing increasing sales growth. To identify such companies, he first requires that a company have positive growth in sales as compared to the same quarter the prior year.
Beyond positive growth in same-quarter sales, Zweig also likes companies that are able to increase this same-quarter growth rate. To capture this element, this screen compares the same-quarter growth rate in sales for the last fiscal quarter to the same-quarter growth rate in sales for the previous quarter. Those companies that have been able to increase this growth rate pass this criterion.
Earnings Persistence
Zweig also looks for companies with persistent, rising earnings on an annual basis. Here, the screen requires that a company's earnings per share for the last four quarters (trailing 12 months) be greater than or equal to the earnings per share for the last fiscal year as well as requiring year-to-year increases in earnings per share for each of the last two fiscal years. Zweig is also impressed with stocks that exhibit "strong" longer-term growth rates. To isolate companies that meet this requirement, the screen specifies a three-year annualized growth rate in diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of at least 15%.
Sales Growth vs. Earnings Growth
Zweig makes a point of discussing the relationship between sales growth and earnings growth. He points out that one cannot draw any negative conclusions when earnings do not grow as fast as sales without further study. He points to competition and price cutting as potential culprits, but the expenses required to introduce a new product may also serve as an explanation.
On the other hand, he is leery of situations where earnings growth far outstrips that of sales. While it may be possible in the short term for a company to improve earnings through cost cutting, ultimately increases in sales are what drive long-term earnings growth. If you see a company with a long-term growth rate in earnings that is substantially greater than the growth rate in sales, this is a red flag warning to study the sustainable nature of the growth. In the interim, however, it is possible for a company to increase its earnings at a rate higher than that of sales due to operating efficiencies, financial leverage, etc. For this reason, a screen that would require sales growth to outpace earnings growth could punish good companies. Therefore, the screen instead implements the same sales growth requirement as for earnings-the compounded growth rate in sales for the last three-year period must be at least 15%. This way, the screen seeks out companies that are growing at a healthy clip for both earnings and sales. It is then up to you to perform further analysis to decide whether the favorable growth conditions will persist in the future.
Earnings Momentum
The next element Zweig looks for is increasing momentum in earnings growth, both over the short term and longer term. Zweig compares the growth rate in earnings between the last fiscal quarter and the same quarter one year prior, to the growth in earnings between the sum total of the prior three fiscal quarters and the same three quarters one year ago. Zweig did make an exception here, not wanting to exclude companies that had experienced strong growth in earnings per share for the last quarter, especially if they might be able to continue that growth going forward. For that reason, he also accepts companies whose same quarter growth rate for the most recent quarter is at least 30%.
Zweig also compares the growth in same-quarter earnings for the last fiscal quarter to the longer-term growth, hoping to find companies where the quarterly growth rate was higher. For this element, this screen required that the same quarter growth rate in earnings per share be greater than the three-year earnings per share growth rate. The criteria that make up the screen will return companies that are benefiting from the current business cycle and market environment. As economic and market conditions change over time, the industries that make up the bulk of the passing companies will probably change as well.
Price-Earnings Ratio
The other key element of Zweig's stock selection is the price-earnings ratio. Zweig avoids living on the edge梙e believes that a price-earnings ratio can be too high or too low. On the low end, he feels that there are two types of companies-those that are experiencing financial difficulties and those companies in neglected industries. The risks of investing in financially troubled firms, in Zweig's opinion, are too great to justify the investment in them, since the risk of these firms going under overshadows any potential "value" in these stocks.
Neglected stocks, on the other hand, are ignored by the market because of bad news surrounding the company itself or the industry in which it operates. In some cases, this overly negative view subsides and the stock goes on to enjoy above-average price appreciation. Studies have shown that these stocks tend to outperform higher price-earnings ratio stocks in the long run. However, due to the nature of the screen, it is doubtful that it will return any neglected companies in the final results. Zweig notes that if you do run across a company with a very low price-earnings ratio, given the growth requirements of the screen, you should immediately examine the balance sheet for any potential problems.
On the other end of the spectrum, Zweig gets nervous about stocks with very high price-earnings ratios. These stocks run the risk of facing the wrath of the market should they fail to meet expectations. The higher the price-earnings ratio, the higher the expectation for that company, and the more painful the fall should it fail to meet them. Ideally, he selects stocks whose price-earnings ratios are near or slightly above the "market" average. He avoids stating an absolute ceiling, citing the fact that they rise and fall over time. The price-earnings ratios constraints for the screen consist of a minimum level of 5.0 (to avoid potentially troubled firms) and a maximum level of one and a half times the median price-earnings ratio of the entire universe of stocks.
Relative Price Strength
In his book, Zweig spends a good amount of time discussing price action and relative price strength of individual companies. As a minimum, Zweig compares the movement of the market and that of the individual stock. He is in search of companies that have outperformed the overall market. A stock may be rising in price, but if it fails to gain at the same rate as the overall market, you are still losing out. For that reason, Zweig eliminates those companies that are underperforming the market as a whole, especially when the market is performing well. He theorizes that if a company is as good as it appears, it should perform at least as well as the overall market. The screen eliminates those companies whose price strength relative to the S&P 500 over the last 26 weeks has been below zero.
Remaining Criteria
To round out the screen, supplemental criteria were applied to further ensure the integrity of the companies we ultimately want to examine. The first of these eliminates those companies traded as American Depositary Receipts, or ADRs-foreign listed companies that are traded on U.S. exchanges. The screen also excludes companies categorized as part of the miscellaneous financial services and real estate operations industries, which usually consist of closed-end mutual funds and real-estate investment trusts. Lastly, the screen addresses the difficulty that can arise when attempting to invest in stocks that are lacking liquidity - they have relatively low daily trading volume. While Zweig believes that the average investor will not run into liquidity problems, it is a good idea to establish a minimum level of daily trading volume. The screen requires companies to have an average monthly trading volume (based on the last three months) that falls in the top 75%.
Qualifying Factors
As always, the results of any stock screen are more of a starting point than a finish line. With the database winnowed down, it is time to examine each of these stocks using some other factors that Zweig feels are relevant.
Debt Levels
Zweig makes a point of mentioning that you should not pay too much for a company that has a high level of debt. Companies that carry higher levels of debt also carry with them higher risk levels, mainly due to the higher fixed costs associated with interest expense. Since the level of debt a company can safely carry tends to depend heavily on the industry in which it operates, it is best to compare an individual company's level of debt to that of its industry.
Price Action
You won't find Zweig buying companies that are making new lows. He states very plainly that he is on the lookout for companies whose stock prices are on the rise, especially when those increases are spurred by an unexpected earnings announcement. Those companies that pass the screen would represent a "watch list" of companies. Zweig watches for these companies to announce their quarterly results and then follows a two-step process. First, he confirms, based on the new quarterly or annual data, that the company would still be included on the watch list. If that is the case, the second step would be to check the price performance on the announcement day. The price behavior following an earnings release can serve as a barometer that measures the market's reaction to the news. If prices fall following an earnings announcement, chances are the market's expectations were not met. Studies have shown that, in cases such as these, the negative impact on the stock's price could last for up to a year. It is for this reason that Zweig chooses not to "fight the tape." He overlooks those companies whose prices fall "significantly" on the day the latest quarterly results are announced. Likewise, an announcement that is better than what the market was expecting could have a positive impact on the stock price for a long time.
Insider Activity
In general, Zweig is more concerned with heavy insider selling than a lack of insider buying. Zweig uses insider buying and selling activity over the last three months as potential buy and sell signals-three insider buys indicates a potential buy signal and three insider sells, a potential sell signal. He also prefers his signals to be unanimous, meaning at least three insider buys and no sells for a buy signal and at least three insider sells with no buys for a sell signal. Web sites such as MSN MoneyCentral track insider activity over the last three months (moneycentral.msn.com).
Conclusion
When following any stock screening strategy, it is important to remember that the process is only a first step. Martin Zweig's principles help to reveal a collection of companies exhibiting strong earnings and sales growth, reasonable price-earnings ratios relative to the overall stock universe, and strong relative price strength that can prove to be an interesting starting point.
This information is provided by AAII.
马丁.兹威格的选股策略 （中文）
第一部分：投资哲学
在股票投资策略中，主要有价值型与成长型两种类别。价值投资策略倾向于寻找被市场忽视或价值被低估的公司，成长型投资则主要关注那些收入或盈利展现出持续性或加速增长态势的公司。但我们在投资中很少发现以纯粹的价值或纯粹成长为导向的策略，多数时候只是更偏向于其中之一或者是二者兼而有之。
马丁.兹威格是兹威格基金管理者，20世纪90年代两度当选Hulbert Financial Digest最佳选股师，倾向于成长型投资策略。在《马丁?兹威格：战胜华尔街》（华纳公司，1997年）一书中，他策略性地描述了如何鉴别收入和盈利具有高成长的公司和在一定增长率的基础上有一个合理市盈率水平的公司，并根据内部人买入行为（或至少没有内部人大量卖出股票的迹象）以及股票价格的相对强势来决定买入股票。
全副武装你自己
兹威格将选股分为两类范畴—短枪式和步枪式.。短枪式是兹威格非常提倡的，在运用选股标准时必须采用公开的现有数据。这个较为机械的方法能帮助我们一次性筛选到大批股票，从而在每个公司的考察上花的时间更少。相反，步枪战略包括深入分析我们所选的公司。这个分析可能包括会计方法的应用，公司及所处行业未来发展趋势，以及大堆的不确定因素对公司的影响分析。然而，兹威格指出，这种方法对于普通投资者来说有些不切实际，因为它要求我们全职专注于整个市场动态。
高成长型
兹威格选股策略中的一个关键点是：反复强调他称之为的“销售和利润的合理增长性”。为此他将从多个角度检验绝对水平以及增长率。
盈利的稳定性
我们从考察季度盈利和销售水平开始兹威格的选股实战。这里兹威格要求最近一个财政季度每股盈利较上一年同期的同比增长率为正数。但季度的同比增长率较季度的环比增长率是个更好的基准，因为它不受季节周期性变化。兹威格也检验每股盈利过去几个季度的同期增长水平。对于季度同比增长为负或者停滞不前的股票他非常警惕。我们选股的第一步是挑出前四个连续财政季度分别的同比增长率均为正的公司。
销售增长率
销售直接驱动盈利，因此兹威格也对那些能够维持销售水平的公司与销售增长的公司感兴趣。为了选出这样的公司，他首先要求销售的季度同比增长率为正。除了销售的季度同比增长率为正外，兹威格还喜欢那些季度同比增长率递增的公司。为抓住这个要素，我们将比较近一个财政季度与上一个财政季度的同比增长率。那些增长率呈递增状态的公司将顺利通过我们的筛选。
第二部分：盈利的持续性
兹威格看好年度盈利持续性增长的公司。这里，我们除了要求近两年来每股盈利年度均递增外，还要求一个公司最近四个季度（过去12个月）来每股盈利与上一个财政年度相比基本持平或有增长。兹威格尤其欣赏那些展现出“强劲”的长期增长态势的股票。为选出这类股票，我们要求近三年来的每股盈利年均增长率至少为15%。
销售增长与盈利增长
兹威格在比较销售与盈利增长时有一个观点。他指出当盈利增长未能跟上销售增长的步伐时，不做进一步研究就不能得出负面结论。竞争和价格战也许是个因素，但投资开发新产品的高额费用有可能是个更好的解释。
另一方面， 他对于那些盈利增长率远超销售增长的境况尤其敏感。也许一个公司短期内能通过压缩成本来提高盈利水平，但销售最终还是盈利长期增长的驱动因素。如果你发现一个公司盈利的长期增长率显著高于销售增长，那么这就是个红色信号，它警告我们该考察这个公司增长的持续性了。但一个公司由于运营效率的提高、财务杠杆的作用，从而使得盈利的增长率高于销售增长是可以接受的。鉴于这个原因，要求销售增长高于盈利增长的选股标准很可能将好公司排除在外。因此，我们取而代之的方法是，除了盈利增长外，其对应的销售收入近三年来年均增长率至少为15%。这样，我们就能挑出那些盈利及销售均呈健康增长的公司。现在就由你自己去进行下一步的分析了，看目前这个良好的增长态势未来能否维持。
盈利增长动能
下一步，兹威格要找出具备盈利增长动力的公司，包括长期和短期要素。兹威格比较最近一季度盈利的同比增长率与之前的三个季度较上年同期同比增长率之间的差距。兹威格给出了一个例外，并不将近一季度每股盈利突然大幅增长的公司排除在外，尤其这种增长水平有望维持的公司。因此，他也能接受那些最近一个季度同比增长率超过30%的公司。兹威格也将盈利的最近一个财政季度的同比增长率与长期增长率相比较，希望找出季度增长率较高的公司。因此，我们的选股要求季度每股盈利的季度同比增长率高于三年增长率。组成兹威格选股的标准试图将那些能从目前经济周期和市场环境中获利的公司挑选出来。随着经济以及市场环境的变化，这些公司所处的行业也会发生变化。
第三部分：市盈率
兹威格另一个选股要点是市盈率。他避免那些处于边缘的公司，即市盈率过高或过低的公司。市盈率过低的公司，他认为有两种类型——那些正经历财务危机和处于被忽略行业的公司。在兹威格看来，处于财务困境的公司风险太大，投资价值难以评判，因为这些公司的风险抹杀了这些股票的潜在投资价值。被忽略的股票，从另一角度来讲，是因为公司本身或所处行业的不利消息所致。在某些案例中，这种因负面因素遭市场过渡反应的公司往往有着超过平均水平的估价增长潜力。研究表明，长期里这些股票总是能战胜高市盈率的股票。然而，根据兹威格选股标准的性质来看，我们的结果是否能获取到被忽略的公司还存在很大疑问。兹威格认为，如果公司真的在给定选股的增长率要求的前提下市盈率非常低，你应该立刻去研究公司的资产负债表，看是否存在问题。市盈率过高是另一个极端，兹威格对这些公司非常紧张。这类股票如果没能达到市场对它们过高的期待，将面临被投资者愤怒抛弃的命运。市盈率越高，市场对公司的期待越高，一旦无法达到期待水平这些股票就跌得越惨。比较理想的是选择市盈率接近或略高于市场平均水平的公司。我们选股标准中市盈率的约束包括最低水平5.0（避免可能陷入困境的公司），最高不能超过整个股票市场的中值水平的1.5倍。
相对价格强度
在他的书中，兹威格花了大量时间讨论单个公司的股票价格走势和价格强度。兹威格最基本的方法是比较市场与个股的走势。他希望找出个股走势胜过大盘的股票。股票价格可能上涨，但假如上涨幅度落后于大盘，仍可认为其表现落后。因此，兹威格排除这些走势落后于整个市场的股票，尤其当市场整体表现良好的时候。他从中得出结论，如果一个公司果真那样好，那它的表现起码不应输于整个大盘。我们的选股排除近26周以来那些价格相对强势并超过标准普尔 500平均水平的公司。
其它条件
为充分说明兹威格的选股方法，我们还需对数据追加一些条件，以进一步保证我们最终考察公司的信息完整性。首先我们排除掉美国存储凭证（ADS），即在美国上市的外国公司。我们还需排除业务繁杂的金融服务及房地产行业的公司，这类公司通常包括封闭式的共有基金，以及房地产投资信托公司。最后，选股方法标准考虑了投资于缺乏流动性（日成交量相对较低）的股票时可能会遇到的困难。虽然兹威格认为一般来说投资者不会遭遇流动性问题，但我们最好还是规定一个日成交量的最低水平。兹威格选股标准运用百分比排名，即在一个给定数据库范畴内 ，将相应数据进行排列。这种方法要求公司平均月成交量（以最近三个月为基础）居整体前75%。
相关因素
通常，我们所选的股票多数正处于起跑点位置而并非终点。随着数据被筛选出来，我们还应该用其它兹威格认同的相关方法进一步检验这些股票。
债务水平
兹威格认为对那些负债水平过高的公司，投资者不应花太多精力去关注。高负债率即意味着高风险，因为它们与利息费用相关的固定成本太高。一个公司合理的负债率水平与公司所处行业高度相关，所以公司负债率最好与行业平均水平相比较。
价格表现
兹威格从不买那些价格创新低的股票。他非常坦白的说他只关心价格处于上扬状态的股票，尤其是那些受盈利意外增长公告的刺激而价格走高的股票。那些通过兹威格筛选的股票在他的高度关注范围内。一旦这些公司公布季报，他马上开始实施两个步骤。首先，在参考了新的季度或年度数据后，看这些公司是否仍然能保留在他的关注范围内。接下来，他便开始研究股票在公告日的价格走势。盈利公布后的价格表现可以作为衡量市场对新消息反映的测量仪。若消息公布后价格下跌，则说明盈利未达到市场预期。研究表明，果真出现这类状况，则此次对股价的打压形成的负面影响可能持续一年。鉴于这个原因，兹威格选择不去逆市而行，他将那些最近季报公布后股价显著下跌的公司排除在外。同样，若报告结果高于市场预期，则会在较长时期内对股价产生正面影响。
内部人行为
通常兹威格对于内部人大量卖出股票的信息比缺乏内部人买进更为关注。兹威格以最近三个月来内部人员买卖股票的行为作为潜在的买卖信号——三个内部人买进即意味着买入信号，反之则为卖出信号。他希望这个信号表现非常一致，即一个买入信号中至少有三个买进，没有卖出，或一个卖出信号至少三个卖出，没有买入现象。虽然股票投资者确实应跟踪内部人的买卖行为，但这类数据必须涵盖近六个月以来的情况。一些网络如MSN的货币中心会追踪近三个月来的内部人行为。
结论：
运用任何一个选股策略都只是我们投资的第一步，这一点我们必须铭记在心。马丁.兹威格的选股原则帮助我们揭示所选公司盈利及销售的高增长性，市盈率相对于整个市场水平的合理性，和值得关注的股价相对强势。
选股标准
* 最近一个财政季度(Q1)与去年同季度(Q5)之间每股盈利同比增长率为正
* 上一个财政季度（Q2）与去年同季度（Q6）之间每股盈利同比增长率为正
* 上上一个财政季度（Q3）与去年同季度（Q7）之间的每股盈利同比增长率为正
* 三季度之前一个财政季度（Q4）与去年同季度（Q8）之间的每股盈利同比增长率为正
* 最近一个财政季度(Q1)与去年同季度(Q5)之间销售收入同比增长率为正
* 最近一个财政季度(Q1)较去年同季度(Q5)的销售增长率高于上一财政季度（Q2）较去年同期（Q6）的增长率。
* 最近12个月的每股盈利不低于其上一财政年（Y1）水平
* 最近一个财政年(Y2)的每股盈利不低于其上一财政年（Y2）水平
* 最近一个财政年(Y2)每股盈利不低于其上一财政年（Y3）水平
* 最近三年来每股盈利连续年均增长率大于或等与15%
* 最近三年来销售收入的年均增长率大于或等与15%
* 近一个财政季度（Q1）的每股盈利较去年同期（Q5）的增长率高于上三个财政季度(Qs 2-4)的每股盈利较一年前同期三季度(Qs 6-8)的增长率；或近一个财政季度（Q1）的每股盈利较去年同期（Q5）的增长率大于等于30%
* 近一个财政季度（Q1）稀释后的每股盈利较去年同期（Q5）的增长率高于近三年来稀释后的每股盈利增长率。
* 市盈率高于5，但低于整个市场中值水平的1.5倍
* 近26周来价格相对强度为正
* 排除美国存托凭证
* 类属业务繁杂的金融服务和房地产行业的公司排除在外
* 最近三个月来平均交易量居市场前75%
[ 本帖最后由 lymanqun 于 2007-2-25 17:36 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2007-2-23 14:25
