Euro/ Usd ....
Price boeke out of this triangle overnighgt !
--------------------------------------------------
Price is now touching a 618% Line .............
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9494&stc=1&d=1195575898
I don't know guys. I have a very bad felling about this afternoon. As time goes on, the Eur/Jpy is becoming more and more clear. This consoldating thats been going on the week or so feel an aweful like a wave 2. This decision the afternoon could easily be the start of WAVE 3 Down! If Im right, its a running flat VERY BEARISH! Im looking at a possible crash in the Euro as well.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9504&stc=1&d=1195585034
Heads up guys,
Anybody see what I see?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9508&stc=1&d=1195588336
3 or C
Hey guys,
Does anyone have long term opinion of the Eur/GBP. Reason being is I sense a muti-week top any day now in the Eur/GBP. We have a three-wave structure where wave v of 5 of either 3 or C looks complete. The question is, is it a 3 or C? A break below .7125 is the signal this third wave may be complete.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9529&stc=1&d=1195603897
Hey Serhito,
Thanks for your response regarding the Eur/Gbp. I was thinking the same thing but that wave 1 looks like a 3 waver to me. If anyone else has any other counts for the Eur/Gbp, I love to hear it as well.
Now for your question. Contrary to popular beilief (outside as well as inside this forum), I think the jig may be up for the dollar pairs. The Euro has completed 5 wave patterns on several degrees. At the very least, a substantial retracement is very close. The Pound looks almost done as well. (ending diagonal c of ii of 3 down). The Aussie looks like its going to fall as well as early as tonight, perhaps early morning with a running flat as wave 2. Im counting the the Yen pairs the same way as the Aussie, especially the Eur/Jpy. Although running flats are quite rare, we need to be ready for anything especially in times where fear seams to be engulfing the markets.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9533&stc=1&d=1195608946
Serhito,
At the very least, we need a C wave down to complete the last 5 wave sequece.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9534&stc=1&d=1195609154
Serhito,
I think I read your question wrong. You wanted my count for the channel. Well, it is a tricky one but here's a possibility based on my very bearish bias ever though Im not betting the house on it.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9535&stc=1&d=1195609865
A break below 109.12 which is sooo near means we're on a crash. The stock markets are crashing already. And Eur/Yen is following.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9507&stc=1&d=1195587001
Italm,
I think if you zoom out a little further, you get a better picture.
It's 1 or A.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9530&stc=1&d=1195605015
....and shorter term...
and i am opened to any criticism
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9531&stc=1&d=1195605317
Now i need your help.
AUDUSD. What would you consider that channel to be ? Just part of a correction, but how would you label it ?
Thanks
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9532&stc=1&d=1195605629
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-27 17:05 编辑 ]
先来学习一下RSI和均线系统在短时间图里的配合.我是M30,H1,H4,D图都看的,但开仓比较偏爱M30和M5配合.RSI感觉最低也要在M30图了.
这是日内或持仓不超过一周的做外汇的思路.
1.主思路是顺势操作,回调进场.
顺H4的势,突破或反向到均线的阻力或支撑建仓.
2.具体操作时利用RSI的特点和均线的特点配合,过滤不良信号.
3.RSI的特点是:
a.高低点的动量.有提前预示性,随着价格的变化而产生不同的形态以显示头部或底部.
b.一轮上升或下跌中高低值的指示作用.
c.背离
4.均线的特点:
a.显示趋势发展的形态.
b.阻力与支撑作用,短中长期的各自不同层次的阻力与支撑
下图为英镑30分钟图.
http://blog.macd.cn/attachments/2008/04/965692_200804271407091DMg1.jpg
http://blog.macd.cn/attachments/2008/04/965692_200804271407091DMg1.jpg
这张图最重要的地方是RSI在下跌势中的表现,多次的碰触和下穿20线.然后回抽.几次回抽时的高值与价格回测均线的情况都是判断趋势是否继续的标准.
当较大背离第一次出现时往往是价格探测更高一级均线的时候.
记住一个标准:
A、顶部形态形成的时间较底部图形短，且震荡较大
B、底部形态的价格幅度较小，形成的时间则较长。所以在图中RSI出现背离不用太着急做什么动作.因为底部是需要时间的.价格会来回测试一个价格区的,当这种情况出现时,就要做好可能会反转的准备了.可以考虑平仓了.那么是不是要开反向单呢,最好结合H4的趋势来定.如果想试探下轻仓单的话,最好是等价格回到中期均线并得到支撑再下单,同时从那里开始的收盘价(图中8)以及RSI的第一个接触80附近的收盘价为标准来观察后面的情况.后面的情况是价格回探了图8的位置,下影到了开始反复试探的位置,RSI标准背离形态,价格之后急升,过了8的位置并升破RSI第一个到80的点,那么下面就要观察从这开始的RSI的首先到达的高点值和价格收盘价,我习惯用75-80标准来判断.下图是后面的走势:http://blog.macd.cn/attachments/2008/04/965692_200804271451371W0TY.jpg
http://blog.macd.cn/attachments/2008/04/965692_200804271451371W0TY.jpgRSI到达的第一高(图中第二个红线)为判断.图中价格上冲后留了一个大长上影,并跌破了红线处,RSI明显背离.很明显要平仓了.后面的情况怎么发展就要看RSI从这个高处跌下后第一个到达的低值,并以它结合均线形态和阻力支撑来判断后势.总之,RSI不可以单独剥离出来看,同时要和均线配合来看比较好.当价格回测均线得到阻力或支撑后,还要看是否有新低或新高.如果没有,那就必须仔细观察并做坏的打算了.下图有个RSI的头部形态,结合均线看可以很好判断后势:
http://blog.macd.cn/attachments/2008/04/965692_200804271552431NVbp.jpg http://blog.macd.cn/attachments/2008/04/965692_200804271552431NVbp.jpg这张图很好的说明了价格反向后,可以把以前的空单平了或减仓,判断的依据是H4图的走势和本图的长期均线,但不是价格反向就一定要开反手单的.只做顺势单比较好.突破是在价格在后面破1的位置的操作.做反是在1的回测黄线或黑线的操作.
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2007-12-33789 / 2240272008-4-27 00:40
by frankwu
784651/224212345678910›››|
Just to provide an alternate view from italm's audusd count. I am hoping to see the pair go up in a 3 wave corrective rally before going down for leg C or 3 of the correction. The rally could possibly reach at least .9080-.9100
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9536&stc=1&d=1195610040 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9537&stc=1&d=1195610050
My target of 108.30 earlier was hit, and I still see this pair heading south after a retracement to around 109.4
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9549&stc=1&d=1195660865
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-28 06:18 编辑 ]
An update of my Pound chart shows we have broken the lower trend line of the ending diagonal. We should come back to touch it, but I'm watching to see if we cross back into the diagonal or we go down from there.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9538&stc=1&d=1195610215
Hey Sehito,
Sometimes ending diagonals can be a little tricky. The clearer they are the better our entry. What is important with the diagonal is recognizing it when you see it. I recognized it because I counted is as a C wave. We all know ythey happens as terminal patterns meaning C waves and waves 5. So already, when I feel a terminal pattern is approaching, when they do happen, they are easy to spot.
As far as entering such a trade. When you see one, the clearer they are, the better your entry. What I usually do is enter right below what I think is the wave 4. My entry was off for the Pound but that didn't matter much. The pattern as well as the count was intact therefore, I didn't place a stop. (This is the only exception I won't place a stop). I will manually close the trade once the pattern is proven incorrect.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9548&stc=1&d=1195647304
Guys I'm suggesting another count for Usd/Yen, wave 5 is an ending diagonal, but 108.86 must not broken as that would make wave iii the shortest, the low a while ago was 108.89 and prices are retracing so it is still valid.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9539&stc=1&d=1195623907
I think the correction in cable hasn't finished yet. But as italm has shown we need a break of the wedge first. Althought I'm thinking it might go higher first.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9542&stc=1&d=1195630648
Euro looks ready for the final push higher in wave 5 of 5.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9544&stc=1&d=1195633440
I Already jumped in because of the diagonal. I'm sticking with it for now. I don't expect the Euro to make a new high.
Right now, Im also looking for a significant retreat in the Yen pairs. The Usd/Jpy has completed a 5 wave sequence which I'm labeling a I of 3 down so I expect a II of 3 in the next week or so. Also, as I suspected, the Cad/Jpy has done the bare minimum for the expanded flat I thought might happen. I have lowered my stop to 110.50. I expect a retreat back to 116 area to begin shortly.
I believe the Yen strength will take a little breather and the Dollar strength should take over from here as will be confirmed with the Usd Jpy.
Heres an updated count of the Cad/Jpy.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9551&stc=1&d=1195669440
Heads up guys,
Since that wave 4 triangle in the Euro, I count 5 minuscule waves to complete wave v of V of 5 and momentum seems to be turning down. Can the Energizer Bunny's batteries finally be dying out? Unless wave v (yellow) is an extended one, then it would be a i of v. Who knows? A break below 1.4775 (wave iv yellow) is the initial signal the party may be over.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9559&stc=1&d=1195717753
Here's my take on the Usd/Jpy from a large degree.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9552&stc=1&d=1195670734
Hi Guys,
For the euro i'm seeing a possibility of a running flat/triangle developing, a dip towards 4770 might present a buying opportunity
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9560&stc=1&d=1195718794
Good thing you asked me italm, realised my earlier projection was a bit off, its 5056 now
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9561&stc=1&d=1195723632
Usd/Yen
Here is the chart ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Maybe we can close the gap ?
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Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9556&stc=1&d=1195697298
Here is the Euro/Usd ................
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Now moving Toward an " End of a Wave 5 " ? .......
( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9557&stc=1&d=1195698716
Here is the UsdYen Update
-Price broke through 108.72
as illustrated in the earlier post , just above ........
No , we did not close the gap , but
Now price has rallied into a " Wave 4 " top and has been
steadily declining all a day today even with the slow Us Holiday
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Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9564&stc=1&d=1195791623
Here is the Gbp/Usd
Price was sitting on a 618% retracement line all day !
- Then we got a large white candle at the " End of Wave C "
Eventually , you know how people get excited about 618 %
price just blasted through all that resistance !...............
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Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9565&stc=1&d=1195796902
Gbp/Usd
Some say , UP ! ............... Some Say , DOWN !
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How come no one is saying Consolidation ?
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Price is now fooling around with this 50 % retracement line .
( See chart below )
Will price break through it ?
- Maybe even close the overhead gap ?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9566&stc=1&d=1195800786
This is a wave count for the Gbp/Usd ...........( Medium -Term )
We could be moving toward the " End of Wave B "
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Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9570&stc=1&d=1195803254
From the top of anyone's head, what is this formation we're seeing in most yen crosses. Is this a bullish or bearish wedge or some diagonal?
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