Hey guys,
While I agree with the Pound pattern may not look over on a larger degree, some kind of correction is warranted it may be soon. There are 5 wave patterns complete at 3 different degrees. Im ready to short at 1.1080. Stop 1.11.50. Though I'm not ready to bet the house on my first position. May add once IV red is taken out which would confirm some kind of top. For now, need a drop below 1.1060 to confirm a top in place. If I were to venture an educated guess as to how low it would go, Id say 1.0800 to complete a IV of larger degree (near wave 4 yellow).
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My trigger was hit at 2.1080. Im keeping stops tight on this one. If prices breech 2.1016, Im out of there.
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K guys,
It appears Wave III of 3 down has begun on the Yen pairs. My proffered count puts us in a i of III of 3 so it may be time to load up soon. Wave i of III appears to be in a free fall. Ill wait for a pull back to add to my position.
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Heads up guys,
The Pound has made a new high to complete a 5 wave pattern and has been falling ever since. There may be an opportunity there. I will wait for wave IV (blue) to confirm a top though.
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Its time to get bullish the dollar...at least for now. For me a top has been confirmed. I plan to add to my position on a pullback.
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Heads up guys,
5 waves down have been confirmed on the GBP/USD.
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At first I thought that we might be looking at a wave 4 triangle for Usd/Yen, but when I count the down moves they appear to be all impulses, so I think they're coiled and this down move still has more to go, though it might get a little choppy from here.
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Heres an update on the Eur/Usd. It appears wave iv of smallest degree has been breech. Im not expecting new high therefore am looking for 5 waves down.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9257&stc=1&d=1194880705
Actually, my count has us in a b of 2 wave of an expanded flat. I posted it up several weeks ago but can't find the post. It appears to be over as wave c of b has traced out 5 waves as well. But only a breech of 1.0866 confirms this count. Thats the problem with extended 5th waves, wave iv is so far away.
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It appears we may be finally in wave IV. If this is so, a great opportunity presents itself in the Gbp/Jpy. Wave IV price projections brings may bring us back to the 230 area. I Will look for a turn there.
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Here is my preferred count for the Gbp/Usd. A large retracement may start soon.
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Well that is possible but I prefer my count due to the EXTREME dollar bearishness. When we have 95 % bears, a major turn is eminent. Ive also been advocating for a VERY long time that the dollar will turn along side the Yen, stocks, gold, and oil. So far, this looks to be the case. We still need the Euro to confirm this though. For those who need more than Elliot Wave as justification, try this on for size. As a rush of selling comes in to all these elements Ive mentioned in this post, people will run for safety which is CASH. Heres my Euro count updated. We still need a break below 1.4442 to confirm this count though. Thus far, we only have 3 waves from the top.
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Usdcad
Italm,
Here's my take on the weekly USDCAD.
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Usd/ Cad
Update : ..............Price appears moving toward the End of A Wave 3
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This is my Longer-term chart wavecount
for the US Dollar ( "aka" Usd/Chf )
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UPDATE TIME :
Here is what the the Usd/Cad did today !........
There been no break-out like this all year ........
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Make no mistake , this strong rally was caused by short-covering
from Friday 's price action .....( NO MORE SELLERS LEFT TO SELL TO !)
( AND The brokers , are are big part of this because they know where all the stops are )
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Oil Prices now has new problem , time to Slow Down production ...
SEE TODAYS RESULT CHART BELOW
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Hey Market,
I don't have access to the dollar index with my charting software cause well, I don't trade it. But from what I could see, all it is a reversal of the Eur/USD chart. My count puts us in a wave B of 2 of an expanded flat just like the USD/Cad and the Gbp/USD (see how that works). This wave B however is a triple zigzag (11 waves). If Im right, were about to start a large C wave down to below the extreme of wave A. I hope you this is what your looking for.
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Well Im not much of a Usd/CHF trader just because intreday does not look as clear to me as the other pairs. So heres what I see on the biggest chart I could find. As you can see, I think a retracement is coming there as well. But long term, Im VERY Bullisg the CHF. I don't see the Swissie taking as big a hit as the other dollar pairs but it is due for some kind of correction.
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k guys,
The yen pairs are not cooperating with typical price projection targets. This suggests the level of fear in the market. I suggest were still in wave 3 of one down and could be for some time in Eur/Jpy. we've already surpassed the typical wave 3 = to 1.618 with relative ease suggesting today's move may only be a wave iii of 3. The next target is 2.618 of wave one which is at 156.4. That is still a ways away before we see a significant wave iv of 1 retracement.
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I just noticed something that meirts attention in the Euro/Jpy. Thus far, wave 3 is equal to twice wave 1 to the pip. If wave 4 is beginning now, typical wave 4 target brings us back to 161.5 to 162.5 area.
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Hey spin,
That was not insulting at all. In fact this is what the forum is about. We should give constructive critism and challenge each other as long as while doing so, we remember what this forum is about: Elliot wave not economics 101 (although I see why you threw in your p.s and I agree with the most part of it).
Also, I like being challenged mainly because it forces me to go back and re-evaluate. I don't even have a position in the Cad nor have I ever taken one. I am Canadian and the thought of shorting my own Country's currency doesn't really sit well with me even though I know its WAY overbought.I don't know why. Maybe because there's Something unpatriotic about betting your own currency will fall. Who knows?
Now back to my count. Your are right, it was and still is totally biased based on what I see on the other dollar pairs. As I stated in my post, I did make that count weeks ago, but that was before that last leg down. I should have updated my count as well but I don't trade this pair. Yesterday was the first time I looked at a weekly since then. Here is my new primary count. Thank you Spin for allowing me to go back and re-evaluate. I'm expect a move back to 1.2900 area in a large C wave. Then It will be lights out for the dollar. Perhaps, one final push before a revolution to hard assets.
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Hey guys,
We are finally in a wave iv of 1 on the Yen pairs. We haven't quite made it back to the 38.2% retracement on the Eur/Jpy at least.I honestly don't think it will make there because I suspect there may be too many entry prices at that level so perhaps the market are being manipulated a little. (thats just the conspiracy theorist in me) The may be some sort of diagonal c wave playing out but we won't know until its over. A drop below 160.18 is the initial signal momentum is back down.
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The drop from 1.4002 is most likely a very large wave C within an A-B-C decline from the 1.60 area. A drop below .9055 would complete wave iii of 3 of C (which fits with how vicious this decline has been). Then we should see a larger correction back to the 1.0000 area.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9293&stc=1&d=1194961297
Usdjpy
To all,
Is that a correct count for the long term picture on the USDJPY ?
If yes, is the price move from e (when complete) to C equal to ,A to a ? Is it how you calculate the target ?
Thanks.
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Exactly. Here is the chart (monthly)
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Usd Yen
Looking like End of a wave 5 .........
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Usd/Cad
Here is the update from Yesterday's post ...............
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Give you my admiration!
Heads up guys,
Id start looking for a turn in the Yen pairs now for a final wave 5 down. The Cad/Jpy is looking clearest to me. Wave IV may be ending now at 38.2% of wave III with an abc correction where wave b is en expanded flat. If you decide to trade this, keep in mind it should be a wave 5 of 1 down. Look out for truncation as well. It is a 300 pip drop below wave 3 extreme so the potential for a short term trade is there with excellent risk/reward. Look at the other Yen pairs if you don' t lke this one. If this is a turning point, it may happen with the other pairs as well.
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Hey guys,
Check out the Gbp/Jpy. It may be about to start wave V down as well. As momentum is turning down there as well. This one is over 600 pips away from wave 3 extreme? Look out for a wave 5 truncation. Although given the fear in the market right now, an extended 5th wouldn't shock me.
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