hi all another counting.....
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Unfortunately, my stop on the Assuie Kiwi was hit. An ending diagonal pattern is still valid as long as price stays below 1.2062. Otherwise, wave III would be the shortest wave and thats a no no. We also broke above the upper trend line of the diagonal and thats never a good thing. We need a break below 1.1933 to confirm wave B over. I will re access at 8 pm where I'm looking for a reversal candlestick along with perhaps a 5 wave decline on a micro chart. If not, my stance will be neutral cause we cant go much higher for the diagonal to still be valid.
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Here is the larger picture once again. Keep in mind wave B has already surpassed wave V but has since retreated.
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It will be interesting to note what happens with the pound now as price has hit the upper trendline of the diagonal (if it is a diagonal) and come off its highs.
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The Aussie may be leaving clues of tonight's price action. What do you guys think of this count?
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Something to keep an eye on going forward is the CADJPY. It looks like the thing will be completing a 5th wave (and probably one of fairly large degree) sometime this week or next.
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The USDJPY is closing in on the reversal point that I have focused on recently...the 115.50 area. I like it short here a lot. Wave c is unfolding in wave 7 right now (corrective). Wave c = a at 115.56. With the volatility expected today, I recommend keeping an eye on the USDJPY.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-25 12:41 编辑 ]
Because the rise is kind of ugly I am considering this other possibility, that if we get an impulse down it's a wave c of a bigger wave 4 correction. I hope this won't happen though, but well with FOMC, Core PCE and Non Farm till this week ends anything can still happen.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9001&stc=1&d=1193848595
I rather keep it simple, 3 waves down from 0.9271, even though the current rally doesn't look nice, but well I would blame that to the pre FOMC sentiment. Crude oil has just surged and gold followed so kind of hard to pick a top for Aussie just yet. I'm looking at minimally 0.9350 which is the 61.8% of wave 3 before some top is formed on Aussie.
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Seems like Usd/Yen will be poking higher to 116.15 where the 61.8 retracement is before the big wave down. Cad/Yen and Aus/Yen has satisfied minimum price for wave 5, the rest should be completing maybe today or before NFP tomorrow.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-25 12:44 编辑 ]
Ok, I am going italm on everyone here and showing the 1 minute chart. Given that this clear 5 happened just pips away from where a = c, the USDJPY could be at the beginning of wave 3 lower within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93....this would mean a break of 111.59. We all know how this thing moves. Once it gets going, it is hard to get into it, which is why getting in as close to the top as possible is vital to making money in the Yen.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9002&stc=1&d=1193850989
1 min charts??? Noooo heh heh heh.
My opinion on the euro we'll probably see a 4th wave correction soon. The 2.618 expansion of the upmove from 1.4374 is about 1.4495 so a pullback may be coming soon.
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I see a pull back too starting very shortly. Plus we just hit a very important psychological barrier 1.4500
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I suspect a number of pairs have turned. But the best looking ones (in my eyes anyways) are the Aud/JPY and the Cad/JPY. The pairs come of thier all time highs and both display the completion of 5 waves of larger degree so new highs would bring them into 7 wavers.
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Here is my count for the Euro. So far, my expanded ending diagonal is holding up and is my preferred count. It could also be the start of wave 4 but that would make make I a 3 waver.
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GBP/JPY, has just completed a 3 waver down. A new low would confirm 5 waves.
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The Pound did make a new high completing possible putting us into wave 5. I dont know what form wave 5 will take but a drop below wave 4 (2.0753) is the intial signal we have a top may be in place.
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Here's another possibility to watch for. The reason I prefer the first count is because of the law of altenation. Wave II and wave IV of smaller degree (yellow) are both abc corrections.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9035&stc=1&d=1193937687
Hey guys,
You might want to be ready for a possible iii of 3 on the yen pairs this evening. All the Yen pairs are showing similar patterns to which I choose to label this way. If anybody has any different labeling, please show it as this is one of those times we Ellioticians should all stick together. We see things the rest of the world don't and thus should stick together, especially in unsettling times like these. Theres no reason why any of us should miss any moves. Im just one guy with one possible count. We are many and thus should use this blog as a tool to display many possible counts. If anybody thinks Im wrong with my count, Id be more that willing to discuss it thereby keeping us all within the realm of possibilities. (If trading doesn't work out for me, Im thinking of becoming a speech writer)
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I of 3 appears to be complete for the GBP/Jpy. Looking for a pullback back to the 239 area.
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Heres an update on the GBP/JPY. If my count is right, wave iii of 3 is about to commence.
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btw I agree with buying yen
I will post a few charts that show why I'm ambivalent towards USD.
Here's Dollar index. I've had this view for a few weeks but I've seen a couple of pro elliotticians agree so I'm more inclined to embarass myself
Any comments welcome.
Spin
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Cad
I know this is freaky, I apologise for those that I successfully confuse with this, but this is what I see...
p.s.
You can switch the blue 1 and 2 with A and B, but considering, amongst many many other things, all the foreign holders of dollars that are trying to get out...
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Aud
Same comment regarding the blue 1 and 2.
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Here is a monthly view of the Aussie. I prefer to count the rally from .4775 (back on 01) as a-b-c. c = a at .9998. Could a couple hundred point correction happen now...of course and it has probably started...but use that as an opportunity to buy the Aussie....and my favorite buy...the AUDCADAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9050&stc=1&d=1193977424
Wave 2 is unfolding as an expanded flat. A push through 115.14 completes the pattern. Fibo resistance at 115.19 and 115.36. I have not put the labels here but I am sure that all can see what I am referring to.
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Awesome opportunity right now in the USDCAD...bullish against .9413. I see 5 waves up from the low near .9400 which has been followed by a 3 wave decline which is either wave a or a full a-b-c.
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Eur/Usd............
Here are Euro charts from earlier this morning ,
this market moved very fast today
and plummeted into this " Wave A" Low ...
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Usd/Yen............
Looking like an End of a Wave 4
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