一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-地狱级炒手 - 〖期货技术交流〗 - MACD俱乐部_专业的技术分析交流

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:20

Stock to Watch — EDGAR Online (EDGR)EDGR moved to a new high on over five times average volume. This stock was at an all-time low fairly recently (August 2004), but has rallied back from the writing about the new Google Finance:
“The one feature I wish Google would layer its awesome search engine on top of is the SEC EDGAR database. It is an incredibly valuable database, it is in the public domain, and Google would do a service to investors by opening this up in a more intuitive, user friendly and free manner. If they do that, Google Finance could get very interesting.”
I share this wish. If Google does start spidering EDGAR and serves the data attractively, EDGR would die a quick death.
EDGAR Online, Inc. provides financial and business information of global companies contained in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The company extracts, processes, and categorizes raw information filed over the Security and Exchange Commission’s Electronic Data Gathering Analysis and Retrieval filing system, and presents it in a user-friendly format. EDGAR was co-founded by Susan Strausberg and Marc Strausberg in 1995. The company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
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Stock to Watch — ResMed (RMD)ResMed moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume. I’m a snorer (some say a schnorrer) so my wife has a keen interest in this company’s products.
ResMed, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of equipment for the diagnosis and treatment of sleep-disordered breathing and other respiratory disorders, including obstructive sleep apnea. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Poway, California.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:22

Stock to Watch — PW Eagle (PWEI)You may remember I wrote about PWEI while reviewing Top Ten Best Performing Stocks of 2005. Yesterday it moved to a new high above round number $25 after going sideways for several months. The volume wasn’t spectacular but it’s still one to keep an eye on. (PWEI has a 6.8MM share float so anything is possible.)
PW Eagle, Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe and fittings, and polyethylene (PE) pipe and tubing products primarily in the United States. The company was formed in 1984 and was formerly known as Eagle Plastics, Inc. and Eagle Pacific Industries, Inc. It changed its name to PW Eagle, Inc. in 2000. PW Eagle is headquartered in Eugene, Oregon.
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Stock to Watch — Clarcor (CLC)Clarcor moved to a new high on over four times average volume.
CLARCOR, Inc. provides filtration products worldwide. It has three segments: Engine/Mobile Filtration, Industrial/Environmental Filtration, and Packaging. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.
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Notable New Highs — March 17, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200603/20060317nnh.png
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March 17, 2006
Stock to Watch — Insteel Industries (IIIN)Insteel has had a huge run since breaking above $20 back in January. Yesterday it reversed viciously on about 10 times average volume, and formed a “shooting star” on the weekly chart. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock is doomed, but it’s probably going to go sideways or down for awhile. In other words, its awesome, nearly vertical ascent is likely over. (Note that this puppy has only a 7MM share float.)
Insteel Industries, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, Insteel Wire Products Company, engages in the manufacture and marketing of concrete reinforcing products and industrial wire products for construction and industrial applications primarily in the United States. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Mount Airy, North Carolina.
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Notable New Highs — March 16, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200603/20060316nnh.png
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March 16, 2006
It’s Hard for Abstract Nouns to SurrenderWhy Grammar is the First Casualty of War, by Terry Jones
Jones badly confuses the Bahamas and Bermuda, but the spirit of his essay is right.
Words have become devalued, some have changed their meaning, and the philologists can only shake their heads. The first casualty of war is grammar.
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ETF to Watch — Materials SPDR (XLB)The Materials SPDR moved to a new all-time high on over four times average volume. Here are the XLB’s component stocks. Note that Weyerhaeuser, which I featured the other day, and IP, which was discussed in the comments of the WY post, are both prominent members of the XLB.
I bought this back when it was called the Basic Industries SPDR (thus the “B” in the ticker symbol), and have no plans to sell it for at least 30 years. ;-)
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Notable New Highs — March 15, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200603/20060315nnh.png
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March 15, 2006
Launched: July 1992, Circulation: 251,295Bloomberg Markets Magazine Among Top 5 Business Publications for Investment Professionals (Press Release)
In overall rankings including all publications measured in the Erdos & Morgan Professional Investment Community Study of 2005-2006, Bloomberg Markets magazine scored an average issue audience of 34.1%, which ranked 5th in delivering the professional investment community audience behind only The Wall Street Journal (42.7%), The Economist (41.4%), Financial Times (37%) and BusinessWeek (35%).
I used to read this magazine when it was delivered (for free?) to our office in London, but haven’t read it since moving to Beijing. (I have seen it on newsstands in Hongkong, but have never bought it.)
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:23

March 15, 2006
Jamba JuicedServices Acquisition to Buy Jamba Juice
Services Acquisition (SVI) lit up everyone’s screen yesterday, doing around 275 times average volume. It stayed front and center today doing around 40 times average volume. Day traders live for this kind of action.
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Stock to Watch — Novavax (NVAX)Novavax moved to a new high out of a lovely “ascending triangle” on 3.6 times average volume. Don’t confuse fellow Notable New High Avanex (AVNX) with Novavax. (Novavax is a flu / bird flu play.)
Novavax, Inc. engages in the research, development, and commercialization of products for women’s health and infectious diseases. The company was formed in 1987 and is headquartered in Malvern, Pennsylvania.
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Stock to Watch — Weyerhaeuser (WY)Weyerhaeuser moved above round-number $70 to a new high on above 1.5 times average volume. You can see from this monthly chart that the stock has been trading between $40 and $70 for the last decade. Maybe it’s finally time for old WY to move up and out.
Weyerhaeuser Company engages in the growing and harvesting of timber, as well as in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of forest products principally in the United States and Canada. Weyerhaeuser, formerly known as Weyerhaeuser Timber Company, was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Federal Way, Washington.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:24

March 14, 2006
Paying a Dollar for 30 CentsNewspaper naysayers win (for now), by Herb Greenberg
In a moment of uncharacteristic humility, Herbie writes:
The only bright spot, for now, for media-stock believers is that I have been known to throw in the towel at exactly the wrong time, which means my newfound pessimism on the group may be the best sign yet that the bottom has finally arrived.
The bottom isn’t even close to being in. As Sarah Ellison reports in today’s WSJ, “… print advertising that moves online generates only about 20 cents to 33 cents for each dollar lost in print.”
Not surprisingly, McClatchy was front and center on my Notable New Lows list.
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March 11, 2006
Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund at All-Time HighYou may recall in the “Have the Homebuilder Stocks Peaked?” chat I held last August that I posted a chart of the IYR pointing out all the times “technicians” had called “The Top.” I said that “maybe calling a top here will prove to be premature once again.”
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Stock to Watch — International Securities Exchange (ISE)Both the ISE and the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) moved to new highs on about twice average volume. I don’t know much about these new exchanges, but I do follow the ISE’s Sentiment Index very closely, and have found it to be an excellent “dumb money” indicator.
International Securities Exchange, Inc. operates as an electronic securities exchange for equity and index options. It provides a trading platform in listed equity options; and related services that are designed to improve the market for equity options. The company was co-founded by William A. Porter and Martin Averbuch in 1997 and is headquartered in New York City.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:26

March 4, 2006
ETF to Watch — PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)This ETF launched only last December but it’s already trading actively enough to make my Watchlist. (I follow about 40 actively traded ETFs very closely.) I may even put some money into this one after doing a bit more research.
PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio
The PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio is based on the Palisades Water Index™. The Index seeks to identify a group of companies that focus on the provision of potable water, the treatment of water and the technology and service that are directly related to water consumption. The modified equal weighted portfolio is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly.
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RIMM Shot Nearly Impossible to CatchAssuming you were watching the scanner after-hours and caught the RIMM settlement news, only the fastest fingers could have caught the stock much below $80. At 17:45:01 the bid went from $71.70 to $76.51; at 17:45:10 the bid was $79.86; and after 17:45:12 it never once traded below $80.
Who says the market ain’t efficient? ;-)
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Long and Short Interest RatesHere’s a monthly chart overlaying the 10-year Treasury Note Yield and the 13-week Treasury Bill Yield since 1990. These two rates haven’t inverted yet (the last time they did was in August 2000). Short-term rates falling as fast and as low as they did between 2001 and 2003 created a global boom. I think the Fed cut rates too low and kept them there for too long, but what do I know?
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Stock to Watch — Seacor (CKH)Seacor moved to a new high on twice its average volume. You can see that price has broken out of an “ascending triangle,” so this is one to watch.
SEACOR Holdings, Inc. engages in the ownership, operation, investigation, marketing, and remarketing of equipment, primarily in the offshore oil and gas and marine transportation industries. As of December 31, 2004, the company operated a fleet of 212 vessels, 127 helicopters, and 1,000 dry cargo and 20 chemical tank barges. SEACOR was incorporated in 1989. It was formerly known as SEACOR SMIT, Inc. and changed its name to SEACOR Holdings, Inc. in 2004. The company is based in Houston, Texas.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:29

Stock to Watch — Garmin (GRMN)Garmin moved to a new high on about average volume. These guys seem to have a lock on the consumer GPS market based on my unscientific surveys of stores. The stock has clearly been a great investment for those who bought early and hung on.
Garmin, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of navigation, communications, and information products, which are enabled by global positioning system (GPS) technology worldwide. The company is based in George Town, Cayman Islands.
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March 2, 2006
Stock to Watch — NeuroMetrix (NURO)NURO moved to a new high on about twice average volume. I have three words for you, Benjamin: Carpal Tunnel Syndrome.
NeuroMetrix, Inc., a medical device company, engages in the design, development, and sale of proprietary products used to diagnose neuropathies. Neuropathies are diseases of the peripheral nerves and parts of the spine that frequently are caused by or are associated with diabetes, low back pain, and carpal tunnel syndrome, as well as other clinical disorders. The company was founded by Shai N. Gozani in 1996 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
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Stock to Watch — Copart (CPRT)CPRT moved to a new high on about twice average volume. Pulling back and looking at the monthly chart, you can see that it has broken out of a large “symmetrical triangle.” Keep an eye on it to see how it acts at its old all-time high.
Copart, Inc. provides salvage vehicle sale services in the United States. It offers vehicle suppliers, primarily insurance companies, with a range of services to process and sell salvage vehicles over the Internet through its virtual bidding Internet auction-style sales technology. Copart was founded by Willis J. Johnson in 1982 and is headquartered in Fairfield, California.
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Stock to Watch — Copart (CPRT)CPRT moved to a new high on about twice average volume. Pulling back and looking at the monthly chart, you can see that it has broken out of a large “symmetrical triangle.” Keep an eye on it to see how it acts at its old all-time high.
Copart, Inc. provides salvage vehicle sale services in the United States. It offers vehicle suppliers, primarily insurance companies, with a range of services to process and sell salvage vehicles over the Internet through its virtual bidding Internet auction-style sales technology. Copart was founded by Willis J. Johnson in 1982 and is headquartered in Fairfield, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060224cprtm.png
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Stock to Watch — Ctrip.com (CTRP)Ctrip.com moved to a new high on over eight times average volume after reporting earnings. I feel kind of dumb for not buying this stock early on: I’ve never booked tickets through Ctrip but everyone else I know in China has.
Ctrip.com International, Ltd. principally engages in the provision of travel related services, including hotel reservation, air-ticketing, packaged tour services, and Internet-related advertising and other related services, in the People’s Republic of China. The company was co-founded by James Jianzhang Liang, Neil Nanpeng Shen, and Min Fan in 1999. Ctrip.com is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
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Stock to Watch — SonoSite (SONO)SONO moved to a new high on twice its average volume. Again you can see a decisive close above round-number “resistance” ($40).
I am a huge fan of handheld ultrasound gizmos, having come up with the idea myself years ago.
SonoSite, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of hand-carried ultrasound imaging systems for use in clinical applications and settings. SonoSite was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Bothell, Washington.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060222sonod.png
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:30

Stock to Watch — Titanium Metals (TIE)TIE moved above round-number $40 to a new high on about 1.5 times average volume. Regular readers will recall that I picked a top in TIE last December, which wasn’t a terrible call but it generated an ungodly amount of hate mail.
Folks should watch closely here to see if it moves onward and upward or reverses and forms the dreaded “double top.”
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Stock to Watch — Sovran Storage (SSS)SSS moved to a new high on about twice average volume. I noticed Public Storage (PSA) and the Vanguard REIT Index fund (which is the major way I have exposure to REITs) at new highs too. Sovran has a tiny float (16.5MM shares) and trades only 50,000 shares a day on average, so it’s super-thin. But I like the move above round-number $50, so I decided to feature it.
Sovran Self Storage, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It acquires, owns, and manages self-storage facilities throughout the United States. As of March 1, 2005, it owned and/or managed 272 properties under the name of ‘Uncle Bob’s Self-Storage’ in 21 states. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
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Trident Microsystems, whichtime saved
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http://maoxian.com/images/newlogoleft.gif [*]Archive |[*]Older Stuff |[*]Twitter |[*]E-mail |[*]Feed http://maoxian.com/images/200608/feedicon12x12orange.gif

February 18, 2006
Baby T Turns One

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Actually this picture was taken a week or so after his first birthday. I’m slowly uploading all the pictures from his studio session (it’s taking awhile because they are 4256 x 2848), and will share the less embarrassing ones. The Chinese like to dress babies up in various silly outfits for these photo shoots, which Daddy argued about but was overruled by She Who Must Be Obeyed.
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Your Head Is As Empty As a PepperEmpire of signs, by Jonathan Watts
China is a writing system as much as it is a country. This is a place united by a set of ideograms and not an awful lot more. In terms of ethnicity, geography, religion and income levels, there are huge differences among the population, and there are countless different spoken languages. But what people have in common is their citizenship and - if they are educated - an ability to read and write thousands of ideograms.
The bit about the cow’s vagina, or “niubi” … I’ve never heard or used “niubi” in isolation, but I commonly hear and use “chui niubi,” which means “talk big” or perhaps in some cases could be translated as “talk shit.”
On second thought I have heard “ta hen niubi,” which I would translate as “he’s a boaster,” or “he’s a bullshitter.” In any event, this isn’t a term used by educated people or in polite conversation.
–via Bill Bishop –
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Obscurantist Apparatchiks Losing Their GripMalaysia’s big sister shakes up Islam rule , by Jane Perlez
I’m reading a bit more about Malaysia since I plan to put some money there this year. Zainah Anwar, American-educated and very attractive (sexist you say?), fights for women’s rights in the Islamic state.
I’ve always found the phrase “progressive Muslim society” something of an oxymoron, because as I understand it (bear in mind I know almost nothing about Islam), women are considered the lowest of the low in society, ranked beneath both slaves and infidels. Nevertheless, the head of the Central Bank in Malaysia is a woman… odd, I don’t get it.
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Stock to Watch — Sovran Storage (SSS)SSS moved to a new high on about twice average volume. I noticed Public Storage (PSA) and the Vanguard REIT Index fund (which is the major way I have exposure to REITs) at new highs too. Sovran has a tiny float (16.5MM shares) and trades only 50,000 shares a day on average, so it’s super-thin. But I like the move above round-number $50, so I decided to feature it.
Sovran Self Storage, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). It acquires, owns, and manages self-storage facilities throughout the United States. As of March 1, 2005, it owned and/or managed 272 properties under the name of ‘Uncle Bob’s Self-Storage’ in 21 states. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
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Trident Microsystems, which I featured last December when it broke out, continues to continue. It’s up nearly 50% since I added it to my Watchlist at stocktickr, making it one of the top ten best performing picks there. (I still have a few invites left, so if you want to join stocktickr, be my guest.)
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Notable New Highs — February 17, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060217nnh.png
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February 17, 2006
The Clueless, Gullible Dinosaurs at Time WarnerTwilight of the Blogs, by Daniel Gross
Big, unwieldy media conglomerates—the types whose large-circulation magazines always publish trend stories six months too late, like Time Warner—are enthralled with this hot new niche … Time Warner is poised to introduce Office Pirates. The bloggy site is run by Mark Golin, the brains behind Maxim’s U.S. edition. A spokeswomen for Dodge, the “exclusive automotive sponsor of the site,” is calling it a “daily blend of funny videos, strange news and downloads, rolled up in an office-themed wrapper.” Apparently, Time Warner executives are not aware that there’s a place online where you can go to see pictures of large-breasted women and read dirty jokes, without having to look at Dodge ads—it’s called the Internet.
I almost never read Gross’s column at Slate, but I’m an avid reader of his blog. ;-)
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Notable New Highs — February 16, 2006I’d like to thank Charles Kirk for linking to these lists. Being linked to from The Kirk Report is the stock-market-blogosphere equivalent of being slashdotted.
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Stock to Watch — Danaher (DHR)DHR moved to a new high on nearly two times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for over a year so this is a pretty exciting breakout, and one I will definitely add to stocktickr. (Invitations to join stocktickr here.)
Danaher Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of industrial and consumer products. It operates in three segments: Professional Instrumentation, Industrial Technologies, and Tools and Components. The company was organized in 1969. It was formerly known as DMG, Inc. and changed its name to Diversified Mortgage Investors, Inc. in 1978. Further, the company changed its name to Danaher Corporation in 1984. Danaher is headquartered in Washington, D.C.
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The new highs list is full of interesting breakouts… it looks like the market is very strong.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:31

February 16, 2006
Looking at the Crash in Natural Gas PricesThe March 2006 natural gas futures contract hit $15.55 last December and closed at $7.15 yesterday. It has only taken about eight weeks for price to drop 54% — impressive!
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Those of us with a sharp memory for prices recall a recent collapse of similar magnitude: the S&P 500 Index topped at 1552 in March 2000 and then fell just over 50% to 768 in October 2002.
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Notable New Highs — February 15, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060215nnh.png
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Stock to Watch — Roper Industries (ROP)ROP closed at a new high on over three times average volume. I’ll add it to my Watchlist at stocktickr. I’ve once again been given 50 invitations to stocktickr, so if you’d like to join, be my guest.
Roper Industries, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of energy systems and controls, scientific and industrial imaging products and software, industrial technology products, and instrumentation products and services. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Duluth, Georgia
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Several stocks I recently featured — JAKK, DVA, HTLD, FTEK — have continued to climb quite nicely.
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February 15, 2006
2005 Annual Report for Longleaf Partners Funds2005 Annual Report for Longleaf Partners Funds
Selected excerpts from the Letter to Shareholders:
Beginning in the summer and continuing through year-end, we bought new positions both in the U.S.and abroad. These investments came our way thanks to a combination of out-of-favor industries, strong earnings met by stagnant stock prices, and disappointments at specific companies … For the first time in over three years the Partners Fund faces the possibility of having more names that we would like to own than cash to buy them … We enter 2006 with a great deal of confidence in each Fund’s portfolio. Although short-term stock prices are unpredictable, the foundation for longer-term performance is the best it has been in over three years.
(I review the portfolio holdings of all their funds quite closely.)
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Stock to Watch — J.B. Hunt (JBHT)JBHT closed at a new high on nearly twice average volume. Heartland Express, which I featured the other day, also moved up nicely.
Some investors fondly recall when “Old Economy” stocks, like the truckers, were completely out of favor during the Bubble Years and could be bought for a song. You gotta buy ‘em when they ain’t.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides transportation services in the continental United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Lowell, Arkansas.
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Notable New Highs — February 14, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060214nnh.png
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Elmore Leonard’s Ten Rules of WritingElmore Leonard’s Ten Rules of Writing
[*]Never open a book with weather.[*]Avoid prologues.[*]Never use a verb other than “said” to carry dialogue.[*]Never use an adverb to modify the verb “said.”[*]Keep your exclamation points under control.[*]Never use the words “suddenly” or “all hell broke loose.”[*]Use regional dialect, patois, sparingly.[*]Avoid detailed descriptions of characters.[*]Don’t go into great detail describing places and things.[*]Try to leave out the part that readers tend to skip.[*]If it sounds like writing, I rewrite it.I would add: be careful about how you format your text (and count to ten). ;-)
His tip never to use “suddenly” or “all hell broke loose” reminded me of my freshman year of college where the great Sid Wertimer (who died last February) warned us that anyone who wrote or used the word “skyrocket” in his class would get an ‘F.’
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February 14, 2006
Taking the Long View — Exxon Mobil (XOM)I was looking at the quarterly charts of a lot of energy stocks and noticed that the swing lows to draw a nice channel were exactly 20 years apart for XOM. Pretty neat.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060213xomq.png
Can you spot the Crash of 1987 on this chart? Too easy! How about the Asian Currency Crisis? The LTCM Debacle? The 9/11 Terrorist Attack? The Great Bear Market of 2000-2002? My point is that if XOM’s price faltered at any of those times (and it often didn’t), it was a buy.
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Stock to Watch — JAKKS Pacific (JAKK)I noticed JAKK on the new highs list, moving up on nearly twice average volume. Taking a longer view, you can see that a massive “symmetrical triangle” has formed on the chart over the last half decade or so. Clearly there are sellers at $25 and $30 waiting above, but if price can get through those levels things could get exciting.
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of toys and related products. The company was co-founded by Jack Friedman and Stephen G. Berman in 1995 and is headquartered in Malibu, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060213jakkm.png
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Notable New Highs — February 13, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060213nnh.png
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:31

February 14, 2006
Trend Followers Short Google for NowThe trend on GOOG’s daily chart “officially” shifted down on January 31 when the company reported “poor” earnings and the stock price broke violently below $400. Since then opportunistic traders have been looking for low-risk spots to get short.
I haven’t read the “hit job” (as Kedrosky called it) on GOOG in this week’s Barron’s yet, but I have a feeling they had a negative piece in the making for months and were just waiting for an opportunity to publish it.
I can see GOOG earning $15 by the end of this decade. Casting an eye over their numbers still makes me smile, just as using any other seach engine (or email service) makes me frown.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060213goog200a.png
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February 13, 2006
A Profound Problem of Self-RegulationProcrastination: Ten Things To Know, by Hara Marano
These are the bits that rang true to me:
Procrastinators actively look for distractions, particularly ones that don’t take a lot of commitment on their part. Checking e-mail [or blogging] is almost perfect for this purpose. They distract themselves as a way of regulating their emotions such as fear of failure …. Procrastination has a high cost to others as well as oneself; it shifts the burden of responsibilities onto others, who become resentful [just ask my wife]. Procrastination destroys teamwork in the workplace and private relationships …. ‘Telling someone who procrastinates to buy a weekly planner is like telling someone with chronic depression to just cheer up.’
I have a beautiful day planner for 2006. It’s mid-February and I haven’t opened it yet. ;-)
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February 11, 2006
Suspending the Stocks to Watch Lists for NowI put the AdSense ad for the Stocks to Watch page in a “channel” (I’ve been using AdSense for years but just started using “channels” - doh!), and discovered that next to nobody looks at them. Frankly I think the lists are invaluable, but there you have it. Until I can automate posting the lists and make them sortable, I’m going to stop putting them up because it’s a pain to take screenshots.
In the meantime I will post one list a day to the main blog: Notable New Highs. I hand pick the most relevant stocks that are making new highs for this list.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060210nnh.png
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Southwestern Energy (SWN) — The End of a Great Run?I noticed that Southwestern Energy (SWN) made a double top last month and is quickly approaching the bottom of its “change of trend” zone. For a little perspective this stock was under $3 a share back in 2003, so it has had an enormous run these last several years.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060210swnd.png
Readers may remember that we talked about SWN during one of our chats last summer. I said at the time: “it looks a bit stretched to me,” from which point the stock promptly doubled again. ;-) (SWN split 2 for 1 in November 2005 if you’re confused about the prices on the chart in the chat transcript.)
In any event, it looks like the stock has stopped going up for now, and I’d keep a close eye on it to see if it breaks down out of its “change of trend” zone.
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February 10, 2006
Junior? EngineerAn important rule I have when buying toys for Baby T is that I will enjoy playing with them as much as he does. On my last trip to Hong Kong I got him Gigo’s Junior Engineer set. He has gotten hours of enjoyment from this toy set and I’ve gotten days of pleasure building things.
This set has 79 pieces and comes with a pamphlet showing designs for beginner, intermediate and advanced builders. Perfect for developing shape and colour recognition, hand-eye coordination, symmetry and spatial sense, fine motor skills and creativity.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/gigo.jpg
The best toy store in Hong Kong is Little Beetles, which is located on the ninth floor of Times Square.
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Stock to Watch — Life Time Fitness (LTM)I noticed LTM on the new highs list. It broke out on over 6.5 times average volume so I’m going to add it to my Watchlist at stocktickr. (I’ve run out of invites to join, sorry.)
While watching Desperate Housewives (yes, I was desperate to watch something), I noticed that Susan and her mother went for a spa treatment together, and I thought, huh, spas are now a thing for the masses. Is there an angle to play this? Spas and Resorts going mainstream is part of the “vanishing middle class” play.
Life Time Fitness, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, building, and operation of sports and athletic, fitness, family recreation, and resort/spa centers, principally in suburban locations of metropolitan areas. The company was founded by Bahram Akradi. It was incorporated in 1990 under the name FCA, Ltd. and changed its name to Life Time Fitness, Inc. in 1998. Life Time Fitness is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060209ltmw.png
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Vintage Chinese Propaganda PostersI’ve written about Maopost.com before and revealed some sample prices for their posters. I just discovered that they have a section called “Poster of the Month.” (More like Poster of the Quarter, but that’s OK because the guy who runs the site is French.) Anyway, the posters are pretty fascinating to review if you have an interest in Chinese history and culture.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/daqing.jpg
This poster is part of the “Learn from Daqing” campaign. Daqing was China’s first major oilfield (opened in 1963). I think about Daqing quite often while stuck in Beijing’s bumper-to-bumper traffic. ;-)
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February 9, 2006
Trouble Using FeedBurner Plug-inI just tried to install Steve Smith’s WordPress FeedBurner Plug-in, but it doesn’t work. FeedBurner gives me a 404 error when I update my feed URI with the randomly generated URI the plug-in creates.
It says on this Quick Start for WordPress page: “Make sure you are using WordPress’ permalinks structure,” which I’m not, so maybe that’s the problem.
Can anyone explain to me an easy way to redirect all my feed traffic through FeedBurner even though I’m using a custom permalinks structure?
This is the key:
index.php MUST NOT be a part of your permalinks structure, edit it so that it is not present, or else you will get errors.
But if index.php is not part of my permalinks structure, I won’t be able to do the nifty Post Title = Permalinks thing. There was some important reason why I included index.php in the permalink structure, but I forget what it is. Darn.
OK, I found it. WordPress Tip on Permalink Options
My suggestion is to use a simple structure containing the post-slug as your Permalink URI. I use:
Structure: /index.php/archive/%postname%/
Note that there is an index.php embedded. This is fine with search engines and humans too. And it will work great. It doesn’t require mod_rewrite functionality or change to htaccess. Something as simple as this will work in all configurations.
I have no idea what “mod_rewrite functionality or change to htaccess” is, but it sounds scary as hell so that’s why I followed this guy’s suggestion and just left the index.php in there.

I took the “index.php” out of the permalink structure and it caused no problems. So the custom permalink structure “/archive/%postname%/” works great.
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Stock to Watch — Parlux Fragrances (PARL)I notice PARL on the new highs list, breaking out on nearly nine times average volume. This is the kind of super-low-float (6MM) stock that can move dramatically higher (as it has) and lower (as it might now that I’ve noticed it). Nevertheless, I’ll add it to my Watchlist at stocktickr. I have a small handful of invites left (five to be exact), so if you’d like to join stocktickr, be my guest.
Parlux Fragrances, Inc. engages in the creation, design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of fragrances and beauty related products. The company holds licenses to manufacture, distribute, and sell fragrances and grooming items of Perry Ellis, Paris Hilton, Ocean Pacific, XOXO, Fred Hayman Beverly Hills ‘273 Indigo’, and Jockey. Parlux was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060208parlw.png
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ETF to Watch — SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB)New ETFs Launched by State Street, by Tom Lydon
State Street Global Advisors, or SSgA, just added three sector SPDRs to its lineup. The Biotech SPDR (XBI), Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) and Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) are trading on the American Stock Exchange.
American Stock Exchange Press Release
The SPDR Homebuilders ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the performance of an index derived from the homebuilding segment of a U.S. total market composite index. The Fund uses a passive management strategy designed to track the total return performance of the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index (the “Homebuilders Index” or the “Index”). The Homebuilders Index represents the homebuilding sub-industry portion of the S&P Total Market Index.
I don’t really see the need for another Biotech or Semiconductor ETF, but the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) interests me. I’ll keep an eye on all of them to see how liquid they become. With ETF launches, clearly the first mover has the advantage. Just compare the liquidity of the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) with the iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU).
I don’t have a chart of the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, but I do have one for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange’s Housing Index (HGX). There might be a “head and shoulders top” shaping up, so the XHB will be a handy way to get short once price breaks below the “neckline.”
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060208hgxw.png
– via TraderMike –
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:32

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:37

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:38

Stock to Watch — BTU International (BTUI)BTUI, one of the Ten Best Performing Stocks of 2005, moved to a new high on higher-than-usual volume. It has moved sideways for awhile, so I’ll add it to my Watchlist at stocktickr. My number of invitations to stocktickr has mysteriously been replenished once again, so if you’d like to join, be my guest.
BTU International, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale, and service of thermal processing systems for electronics and materials manufacturing industries. The company was formed in 1950 and is headquartered in North Billerica, Massachusetts.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060207btuid.png
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DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)Deutsche Bank Launches First Commodity-Index-Linked Fund Traded on a US Securities Exchange
DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) returns are expected to track the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index (DBLCI). The DBLCI is a rules-based index, comprised of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gold, Aluminum, Corn and Wheat. The DBLCI is calculated based on six liquid futures contracts on the commodities comprising the Index. DBC also will generate interest on cash invested in the tracking fund.
Interesting that it’s based on only six contracts. It’s nice to have a commodity index-based ETF available, and I’ll be watching to see how liquid it is. Launching this ETF after the run commodities have made in recent years reminds me that “
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060207dbc15.png
You can download the prospectus here (111 pages). Table of Index Weights
Looking through their promotional brochure I see that they’re pretty shameless about touting the DBLCI’s recent performance, though they’re quick to add “past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance.” If they were honest, they would print the table of closing levels for the Index all the way back to 1989 right up front.
For example, the closing level in 1990 was 162.39 and in 2001 was 176.01 for a whopping return of about 8% (I’m doing it in my head) over all those years… and that’s not even considering the fees and taxes that the fund would have generated over that time.
Uncle Morty taught me the value of always reading the fine print. When someone’s trying to sell you something, take your time, ask a ton of questions, and always think: who’s making money here and how are they making it?
When my Mom bought her first fund long ago she asked the saleswoman: “How do you get paid?” The saleswoman answered: “Don’t you worry about how I get paid.” (I still get furious when I think about this exchange.) If it had been a salesman he probably would have said: “Don’t you worry your pretty little head about how I get paid.” The lesson is you should always worry your pretty little head about how (and how much) the other guy gets paid.
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Cat:[*]would like to join.

DaVita, Inc. provides dialysis services in the United States for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure, also known as end stage renal disease (ESRD). The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related medical services primarily in dialysis centers and in contracted hospitals across the United States. DaVita is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060206dvad.png
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February 6, 2006
Stuck in China Technology Development (CTDC)?I noticed that CTDC was halted shortly after the close last Friday. This stock is up about 350% year-to-date.
NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq Stock Market said on Friday it halted trading in shares of China Technology Development Group Corp. at 4:09 p.m. Eastern Time, for “additional information requested” from the company.
Nasdaq said the stock, which last traded at $9.64, will remain halted until the company satisfies its request.
© Reuters 2006
I was wondering if intraday trend-followers would be stuck in this stock. It turns out that Dummies would have been quickly stopped out in the morning, and trend followers would also be out: those playing off the 5-minute chart would have exited in the morning and folks watching the 15-minute chart would have sold out in the last hour. This is what is known as “dodging a bullet.”
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc15d.png
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc5f.png
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc15f.png
(TraderMike wrote an excellent post recapping several of his day trades from last week.)
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:39

Stock to Watch — BTU International (BTUI)BTUI, one of the BTU International, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale, and service of thermal processing systems for electronics and materials manufacturing industries. The company was formed in 1950 and is headquartered in North Billerica, Massachusetts.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060207btuid.png
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DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)Deutsche Bank Launches First Commodity-Index-Linked Fund Traded on a US Securities Exchange
DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) returns are expected to track the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index (DBLCI). The DBLCI is a rules-based index, comprised of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gold, Aluminum, Corn and Wheat. The DBLCI is calculated based on six liquid futures contracts on the commodities comprising the Index. DBC also will generate interest on cash invested in the tracking fund.
Interesting that it’s based on only six contracts. It’s nice to have a commodity index-based ETF available, and I’ll be watching to see how liquid it is. Launching this ETF after the run commodities have made in recent years reminds me
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060207dbc15.png
You performance.” If they were honest, they would print the table of closing levels for the Index all the way back to 1989 right up front.
For example, the closing level in 1990 was 162.39 and in 2001 was 176.01 for a whopping return of about 8% (I’m doing it in my head) over all those years… and that’s not even considering the fees and taxes that the fund would have generated over that time.
Uncle Morty taught me the value of always reading the fine print. When someone’s trying to sell you something, take your time, ask a ton of questions, and always think: who’s making money here and how are they making it?
When my Mom bought her first fund long ago she asked the saleswoman: “How do you get paid?” The saleswoman answered: “Don’t you worry about how I get paid.” (I still get furious when I think about this exchange.) If it had been a salesman he probably would have said: “Don’t you worry your pretty little head about how I get paid.” The lesson is you should always worry your pretty little head about how (and how much) the other guy gets paid.
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Cat:[*]Energies[*]Metals[*]Agriculture[*]ETFs | Time: 9:31 am (utc+8) Comments (15)

Stock to Watch — DaVita (DVA)DaVita moved to a new high on about 7.5 times average volume. I’ve added this stock to my Watchlist at stocktickr; I still have DaVita, Inc. provides dialysis services in the United States for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure, also known as end stage renal disease (ESRD). The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related medical services primarily in dialysis centers and in contracted hospitals across the United States. DaVita is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060206dvad.png
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February 6, 2006
Stuck in China Technology Development (CTDC)?I noticed that CTDC was halted shortly after the close last Friday. This stock is up about 350% year-to-date.
NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq Stock Market said on Friday it halted trading in shares of China Technology Development Group Corp. at 4:09 p.m. Eastern Time, for “additional information requested” from the company.
Nasdaq said the stock, which last traded at $9.64, will remain halted until the company satisfies its request.
© Reuters 2006
I was wondering if intraday trend-followers would be stuck in this stock. It turns out that Dummies would have been quickly stopped out in the morning, and trend followers would also be out: those playing off the 5-minute chart would have exited in the morning and folks watching the 15-minute chart would have sold out in the last hour. This is what is known as “dodging a bullet.”
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc15d.png
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc5f.png
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc15f.png
(TraderMike wrote an excellent post recapping several of his day trades from last week.)
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:40

Stock to Watch — BTU International (BTUI)BTUI, one of , Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale, and service of thermal processing systems for electronics and materials manufacturing industries. The company was formed in 1950 and is headquartered in North Billerica, Massachusetts.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060207btuid.png
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DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)Deutsche Bank Launches First Commodity-Index-Linked Fund Traded on a US Securities Exchange
DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) returns are expected to track the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index (DBLCI). The DBLCI is a rules-based index, comprised of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gold, Aluminum, Corn and Wheat. The DBLCI is calculated based on six liquid futures contracts on the commodities comprising the Index. DBC also will generate interest on cash invested in the tracking fund.
Interesting that it’s based on only six contracts. It’s nice to have a commodity index-based ETF available, and I’ll be watching to see how liquid it is. Launching this ETF after the run commodities have made in recent years reminds me
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060207dbc15.png
You can you would like to join.

DaVita, Inc. provides dialysis services in the United States for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure, also known as end stage renal disease (ESRD). The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related medical services primarily in dialysis centers and in contracted hospitals across the United States. DaVita is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060206dvad.png
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February 6, 2006
Stuck in China Technology Development (CTDC)?I noticed that CTDC was halted shortly after the close last Friday. This stock is up about 350% year-to-date.
NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq Stock Market said on Friday it halted trading in shares of China Technology Development Group Corp. at 4:09 p.m. Eastern Time, for “additional information requested” from the company.
Nasdaq said the stock, which last traded at $9.64, will remain halted until the company satisfies its request.
© Reuters 2006
I was wondering ifintraday trend-followers would be stuck in this stock. It turns out that Dummies would have been quickly stopped out in the morning, and trend followers would also be out: those playing off the 5-minute chart would have exited in the morning and folks watching the 15-minute chart would have sold out in the last hour. This is what is known as “dodging a bullet.”
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc15d.png
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc5f.png
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ctdc15f.png

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:41

Stock to Watch — Fuel-Tech N.V. (FTEK)I noticed Fuel-Tech on the new highs list. It broke out on over six times average volume after going sideways for a fair amount of time. FTEK is very thinly traded (average daily volume is just 100,000 shares) and has a very small float (15MM shares), so keep that in mind.
This is just the kind of breakout I like to add to my watchlist at stocktickr. I have quite a few invitations if you’d like to join stocktickr.
Fuel-Tech N.V., through its subsidiary, Fuel Tech, Inc., engages in the development, commercialization, and application of technologies for air pollution control, process optimization, and engineering services. It primarily focuses on the worldwide marketing and sale of nitrogen oxide (NOx) reduction and FUEL CHEM processes. Fuel-Tech was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ftekd.png
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ETF to Watch — iShares MSCI Malaysia (EWM)I think Malaysia’s stock market was one of the worst performers in 2005. (I believe Venezuela was worse, but there’s no ETF for that market that I know of.) I’m thinking of buying the EWM for my IRA this year. We already have quite a bit of emerging markets exposure, and I know nothing about Malaysia, but I like the look of this big ascending triangle. A fool and his IRA contribution are soon parted, I guess. ;-)
(Remember that the contribution limit for Roth and traditional IRAs has been raised to $4,000 for tax-year 2005, $4,500 if you’re 50 or older.)
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060203ewmm.png
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February 3, 2006
Stock to Watch — CB Richard Ellis (CBG)I noticed CBG on the new highs list. I’m familiar with the company because I read their MarketView reports for China (Beijing specifically). Anyone interested in following the real estate market in China (and many other places) will find their free reports useful. The company’s stock has gone more or less straight up since coming public back in June 2004.
CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc. offers commercial real estate services worldwide. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060202cbgw.png
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Further Consolidation of Real-time Market Data ProvidersMaybe this is why I can’t log on to Qcharts today?
Lycos Sells Quote.com to Interactive Data Corporation for $30 Million (Press Release)
“On February 1, 2006, Interactive Data entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Quote.com and related assets from Lycos, Inc. for $30.0 million in cash …. Upon completion of the transaction, the assets of Quote.com will be operated as part of Interactive Data’s eSignal division.”
So IDC paid about $2070 per customer (Qcharts has around 14,500 subscribers), which is quite a bit less than what they paid for each FutureSource subscriber back in 2004.
IDC must have a 75% share of the real-time non-professional market data market after this acquisition. I always thought Schwab should buy Quote.com and integrate Qcharts with CyberTrader.
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February 2, 2006
Sentiment Index — Too Much Optimism Out ThereI’ve written before about how my Sentiment Index is useful for identifying times of excessive optimism as well as pessimism. Remember that my indicator is based on a media survey and has nothing to do with the mechanics of the market.
I thought it would be useful to mention that the reading for the week ending December 30, 2005 was one of the lowest I’ve recorded in the last several years. Low readings mean that the mood is excessively optimistic, which is bearish. I’m not calling a top or anything; I’m just saying it might pay to be a bit more cautious.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200602/20060201spyw.png
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Stock to Watch — Witness Systems (WITS)Witness Systems broke out on nearly seven times average volume. This stock traded around $45 back in February 2000, so there are still sellers above (folks who got stuck and have hung on, and on, and on), but it’s still one to keep an eye on.
Witness Systems, Inc. provides contact center software worldwide. Its solutions comprise voice over Internet protocol telephony, customer interaction recording, performance analysis, compliance, and e-learning management applications. Witness Systems was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Roswell, Georgia.
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Travel in Chinese, Hosted by Mark RowswellI just happened to catch a show called Travel in Chinese, which is hosted by Mark Rowswell. It’s on CCTV International, Monday through Saturday at 3:15, 9:15, and 15:15 (Beijing time). Mark’s Chinese is excellent — nearly as good as my own ;-).
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February 1, 2006
Canada Versus GermanyI noticed that both the German and Canadian ETFs are trading at 52-week highs, so I thought it would be instructive to compare the two monthly charts. Canada bottomed in October 2002 and is now trading at all-time highs. Germany bottomed in March 2003 (after testing its October 2002 reversal) and is still a ways below its all-time high.
Germany topped in February of 2000 and Canada in August of that year. The way I measure it, there were two key peaks in sentiment back in 2000: one in March and the other in October. I was foolish enough to put more money in various tech stocks back in October 2000, which was horrific timing on my part and one of the reasons I developed my own Index of Investor Sentiment.
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Stock to Watch — Vista Gold (VGZ)The New Highs list is once again full of metals stocks. Vista Gold broke out on over five times average volume. (It’s very thinly traded so be careful.) VGZ has been trading between $3 and $6 for several years… $6 is “resistance,” but it’s still one to keep an eye on.
Vista Gold Corp. engages in the evaluation and acquisition of gold projects with defined gold resources. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:42

Google’s After-Hours ActionHere’s a 3-minute chart of Google’s after-hours trading. I don’t know how accurate the data is (looks like there might be a lot of bad ticks recorded), but it’s showing a trading range from $440 to $350, closing at $379.01. There are an awful lot of folks “stuck” now, since GOOG has continuously traded above $400 since last November.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200601/20060131goog3ah.png
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January 31, 2006
Stock to Watch — Heartland Express (HTLD)I noticed Heartland Express (HTLD) on the New Highs list. The stock broke out on about 2.5 times average volume, and it looks good to me. The rails and truckers have been doing well… they are part of the “global trade super logistics” play.
Heartland Express, Inc. operates as a short-to-medium-haul, truckload carrier of general commodities in the United States. The company provides nationwide transportation service to shippers, using late-model equipment and a combined fleet of company-owned and owner-operator tractors. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Coralville, Iowa.
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January 30, 2006
Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 30, 2006Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting in this week’s issue. My comments are in italics.
“New York state hosts the most lobbyists, 3,842, or 18 for every elected legislator…. Only in Maine and New Hampshire do legislators outnumber lobbyists …. Some 43% of first-time buyers put zero money down on their home purchases last year; by contrast, two years earlier, 28% bought a house with no down payment.” – Alan Abelson
“It’s no mystery why hedge funds are sometimes tax-inefficient. Many of them trade heavily and often, holding stocks for hours or days, instead of years. That means hedge funds generate a lot of short-term capital gains, which are taxed by Uncle Sam at 35% — and often they don’t generate as much in long-term capital gains, taxed at 15% …. Prospective investors should always ask a hedge fund, ‘How did the fund do on an after-tax basis?’ But most never do.” – Erin Arvedlund [Ed. – Most investors in mutual funds don’t ask about after-tax returns either.]
“Under the SEC rule, hedge fund advisers are subject to examinations and must have a compliance program, including a chief compliance officer …. Managers who ‘lock up’ invested assets for two years of more don’t have to register …. Some offshore funds, unwilling to register, are returning money to U.S. investors …. For 2005, hedge funds had net inflows of $47 billion, compared with $73.6 billion in 2004 and $70.6 billion in 2003.” – Lawrence Strauss
“Ford has two big pluses going for it — the engineering departments of Mazda and Volvo, its Swedish unit.” – Jay Palmer [Ed. – Where are the home-grown American designers and engineers?. Sheesh. ]
“Stanford now has the third-largest endowment of any North American university — over $12.2 billion — trailing only Harvard and Yale …. Silver jumped over 11% on the week to a 19-year high of $9.76 an ounce after reports that a Barclays silver ETF might be approved. Platinum hit an all-time high of $1,060 an ounce.” – Robin Blumenthal
“Federal-funds futures have priced in a 100% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates Tuesday by 25 basis points for the 14th straight time, to 4½%. Perhaps more importantly, futures indicated about a 70% to 71% probability that the target overnight-lending rate will reach 4¾% in March.” – Jennifer Ablan
“World 2005-06 sugar consumption should surpass output by 1.5 million to 2.0 million tons after Brazil’s disappointing center-south harvest …. Analysts and trade houses made supply-demand forecasts for the season based on sugar prices at 10.5 cents, not 18 or 19 cents …. if the market slides abruptly , some physical buyers could renege on forward purchases, as Russian and Chinese buyers have done in the past.” – Susan Buchanan
“U.K. institutions are moving heavily into long-dated government securities in response to new regulations that force them to invest in high-grade bonds to better cover their future benefits payments. Last Tuesday’s sale of 50-year inflation-index-linked gilts produced a real yield of just 0.46%, the lowest ever for an auction.” – Vito Racanelli
“Japanese shares are at a five-year high and are 100%-plus above the lows of April 2003.” – Leslie Norton
“The Russell 2000 small-cap index is up 8.8% for the month and is at an all-time high. The S&P Small Cap 600 and the NYSE Composite likewise hit all-time highs …. short interest in tech is the lightest of any sector of the S&P 500 …. assets in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund amounted to 18% of the assets in all Rydex funds, and the two Rydex energy funds together account for more than 35% of all firm assets.” – Michael Santoli
“Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, the two leading bond-rating agencies have a duopoly with a combined market share of almost 80% …. Moody’s was spun off from Dun & Bradstreet in 2000 …. Standard & Poor’s is McGraw-Hill’s crown jewel, accounting for almost 70% of total profits …. McGraw-Hill could follow the successful Moody’s model and spin off S&P to shareholders …. McGraw-Hill is one of the two top producers of elementary and high-school textbooks, along with Pearson, the British publisher …. Since 2000, S&P’s operating profits have risen to $1 billion from under $400 million. In comparison, profits in the education unit are up a more modest 35%, to $410 million, while information and media earnings have collapsed to $60 million from more than $200 million …. S&P now gets 37% of its ratings revenue abroad …. Moody’s has a lush operating profit margin of 55%, above S&P’s 42%.” – Andrew Bary
“Henry Schein today holds 32% of the $5.8 billion dental market in North America, virtually even with Patterson …. Schein is the single largest supplier of flu vaccines, with about 50% of the market.” – Neil Martin
“Plum Creek Timber is the nation’s second-biggest manager of forestland, with just under 8.5 million acres …. timber assets are seen as a hedge against traditional stock and bond investments …. The company’s plan to sell nearly half of the million acres it owns in Maine’s North Woods and Moosehead Lake region has set off enormous controversy. Opponents refer to the company as Scum Creek and Plum Creep …. Though the bulk of Plum Creek’s revenues come from timber sales, land sales also make a sizable contribution. About 55% of cash flow comes from timber sales, 35% from land sales and the rest from manufacturing wood products …. One sign of timber’s current cachet is the decision by International Paper to sell its 6.8 million-acre portfolio — what some are calling the biggest transfer of land since the Louisiana Purchase.” – Sandra Ward
“Last year saw 187 initial public offerings, totaling $33.7 billion. While the dollar volume was down 22% from $43.4 billion in 2004, the number of deals was off only 8% …. three sectors attracted the greatest number of offerings: technology, with 34 deals; finance, 26 deals; and 35 health-care deals … Refco, 2005’s eighth-largest IPO, disappeared before the year’s end in bankruptcy …. Back in 2000, VC-backed deals accounted for almost 40% of the IPO dollar volume and 66% of the deals. In 2005, they comprised 10% of the volume and 22% of the deals — the lowest percentage of transactions in 16 years. ” – Jack Willoughby
“A third of Citigroup’s earnings come from emerging countries …. The top 10 homebuilders account for 22%-24% of the industry.” – John Neff
“Investments in oil infrastructure declined from their 1981 peak for 20 years. Supply does not respond quickly to rising demand, as investments are capital intense …. A few years ago it was a buyer’s market, and drillers accepted multiyear contracts at low prices. Today the drilling industry still has about 70% of its fleet contracted at rock-bottom rates. Most of these contracts are ending this year …. The total market value of all gold-mining shares is a little over $100 billion, about a third of Microsoft’s market value …. only 4% of the money in Fidelity’s sector funds is in precious metals, up from 1% at the bottom of 2002.” – Felix Zulauf
“In the next 15 years, there will be a dearth of great-quality arable land. We’ll have to use existing acreage. To feed the world’s population, productivity per acre will have to increase by about 40% …. Research in Motion has 75% of the market for wireless e-mail users. The company makes money on handsets, but not nearly as much as it makes on having a network and providing the service. There are over 60,000 BlackBerry enterprise servers.” – Art Samberg
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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The Problem of the “Empties”China trade unbalances shipping: Vessels sailing to Asia empty, by Thomas Fuller.
Of every 100 containers that crossed the Pacific Ocean from Asia to North America last year, 60 came back empty …. The containers that did come back full were often transported at a steep discount for lack of demand. On European routes, 41 percent came back to Asia empty last year …. There are ships that arrive full in China, from countries like Brazil and Australia and from the Middle East. But these carry commodities like iron ore and coal.
Furniture, toys and footwear were the top three items transported by container last year to the United States from China. In the other direction, waste paper and other paper products were by far the largest commodity shipped from the United States to China, followed by scrap metal and raw cotton.
But shipping imbalances between China and the West are as ancient as the silk looms that drew foreigners to the Middle Kingdom centuries ago. Europeans in the 17th and 18th centuries wanted Chinese silks, porcelains and teas, but few Chinese wanted to buy European wine or wool. The equation shifted to Europe’s advantage with the export of Indian opium to China in the 18th and 19th centuries.
‘With the exception of opium, the Chinese have rarely experienced a trade deficit in their economic history.’
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January 28, 2006
Old Dogs, New TricksIt’s going to take me some time to get up to speed with this system, so I appreciate your patience.
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Success!The switch to the new host went fairly well. Eventually I’ll get all of the archives and old images back up. Anybody who is thinking of hosting with Yahoo Small Business should know that their site will not be accessible from China. If I had known that in advance I would have avoided a lot of bother.
I’ll be installing WordPress in coming days and my trusty old friend Notepad will retire for good. I think the chairman at maoxian dot com email is working again (give it a shot to test it if you have something to say). Thanks again for your patience.
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Copper, Phelps Dodge, and the Elusive Liu QibingCopper hit a new high yesterday as did Phelps Dodge. I don’t think the Chinese have covered the disastrous trades put on by Liu Qibing… they just put up more margin to put off the inevitable, which is a predictably crazy reaction. Those who took this gimme trade continue to take-ee. I featured Phelps Dodge last November just as it broke out of a triangle, and it’s up a tad since then.
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Copper, Daily Chart

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Phelps Dodge, Daily Chart
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January 25, 2006
Switching Hosts Again - Expect Site to Disappear for a BitI’m switching hosts again today or tomorrow so don’t be surprised if you can’t get to the site for the next couple of days. I hope once this switch is complete I won’t have to fool with hosts for a good long time. Thanks for your patience!
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Exchanging Places - CME, ICE, BOTI noticed both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) on the New Highs list. I put up the chart for the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) to show how it has been dragging by comparison. The Merc has come a long way since I wrote my Never Bet Against the House post back in the summer of 2004.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:43

January 24, 2006
Reviewing the Stocks to Watch ListsHere are a few observations after reviewing the Stocks to Watch lists for January 23:
The power of Barron’s: Bill Alpert wrote an exposé piece titled “Smells Like Rotten Eggs” about SulphCo in this week’s issue. The stock opened at $17.80 in the pre-market and closed at $9.51 in the aftermarket.
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Tribune showed up on the New Lows list, along with LEE Enterprises and Media General. I wrote a short post about TRB management the other day. It’s a mystery to me why people are bullish about the newspaper stocks. Here are some recent comments from Jack Shafer (via Howard):
“PRWeek: How do you envision the future of the newspaper industry?
Shafer: I see it as a long, steady, and profitable decline. And this is a decline that started in 1920 when radio arrived… the newspaper industry has gotten used to having quasi-monopoly positions in most of the major markets, and now that they have competition, they are screaming like spanked little children about their losses.
PRWeek: Where do you see it hitting a plateau?
Shafer: I don’t know. I’m really bad at predictions. Every prediction I’ve ever made has turned out to be false. But if you go back and you look, people said that radio was dead when TV arrived. And people said that AM radio was dead when FM arrived. And people said not long ago that the broadcast networks were dead because cable had arrived, and videotapes. And the fact is that every one of these mediums repositions itself, and retools itself, and refuses to die.”
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Baidu finally fell below $60 which means that every single buyer of the stock is now underwater. Dreams still Don’t Come True on Blue Baidu.
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The New Highs list once again is packed with Oil Services stocks. I noticed one name on the list that wasn’t energy, but alternative energy instead: Suntech Power. This recent issue has been on a tear, in part because it combines two magic words: photovoltaics and China. ;-)
“Suntech Power Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, and sale of solar cells, solar modules, and photovoltaic systems in China. Its products are used in communication, broadcasting, transportation, maritime affairs, and military affairs. The company markets its products in Europe, America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Suntech Power was founded in 2001 and is based in Wuxi, China.”
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I urge all my readers who follow the US stock market to review my lists. They’re a unique, free resource, and your sense of the market will improve dramatically if you make it a daily habit to study the lists.
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January 23, 2006
The Inevitability of a New High in CrudeCrude is approaching the high of last August. Both the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Oil Services HOLDR (OIH) are trading at all-time highs so it’s only a matter of time before crude does too, right?
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Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 23, 2006Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting in this week’s issue. My comments are in italics.
“… after spot month natural gas futures hit an all-time high of $15.378 per million British thermal units on Dec. 13, prices tumbled by $6.45, or 43%, in the next month.” - Spencer Jakab
“In 2005, the U.S.-derived earnings of European companies are expected to have jumped 24%, to about $82 billion, after soaring 39% in 2004 …. the biggest beneficiary is Germany, whose corporate sector has earned $14.6 billion in the past two years, more than in the previous decade.” - Vito Racanelli
“Volume was remarkably heavy as the crush of January options traded their final week. More than 11.5 million options changed hands Thursday — a one-day record that was promptly surpassed Friday as 14 million options traded. It was the busiest expiration cycle in the U.S. option market’s 33-year history, and roughly 40% of all contracts outstanding expired this weekend.” - Kopin Tan
“Far from representing any tectonic shift in finance, covered-call funds represent a reprise of the late options-writing funds of the ‘Seventies and early ‘Eighties, many of which ultimately produced millions in investor losses …. Closed-end funds are offered at a premium to NAV at their IPOs; the premium represents the compensation to the underwriters, although few retail buyers understand this. Afterward, closed-ends frequently fall to discounts in the aftermarket …. More often than not, these premiums disappeared when the underwriters withdrew so-called price support techniques after the offering, leaving the small investors holding the bag.” - Jack Willoughby
“Traditionally, trading and research costs have been lumped together, making it difficult to glean how much was allocated to either expense. Hence, the term soft dollars …. ‘hard-dollar payments for research remain unpopular with U.S. institutional investors, who would much prefer to preserve a system in which research is provided by the sell-side in exchange for commission business.’” - Lawrence Strauss [ed. Why should the fund management company pay for research out of its own pocket when it can stick unwitting investors with the bill?]
“Most investors think that dividend payouts historically have accounted for just 5% to 20% of overall stock returns. In fact, around 65% has come from the compounding of reinvested dividends. Even without reinvestment, payouts accounted for 40% of total return.” - Shirley Lazo
“On the Tax Foundation’s index of business-tax climate, New York ranks 49th, meaning it’s more burdensome than all states but Hawaii …. New York state and its citizens have chosen a road to ruin. Those who want a different destination will have to take a different path — for example, to Kansas, Colorado or Virginia, which lead the Pacific Research Institute’s list of states providing the greatest economic freedom.” - Thomas Donlan [ed. This New Yorker’s “different path” led him to China.]
“Sony’s Bravia flat-screen LCD sets, which sell for $3,500 in the 40-inch style, are fast attaining the status among couch potatoes that Sony’s top-notch Trinitron sets enjoyed in the 1960s through the 1980s. Launched in August to rave reviews, Bravia is now the top-selling LCD brand in the U.S., well ahead of Samsung and Sharp [ed. I went to a local store to compare Sony’s Bravia with Sharp’s Aquos, and the Aquos is vastly better.] …. In a joint venture with Germany’s Bertelsmann, Sony has created the world’s second-largest music-recording outfit …. Sony distributes roughly half of all Hollywood color films ever made, giving it a huge library for release to home viewers on the emerging technology of high-definition DVD.” - Jay Palmer
“XM Satellite Radio, which began its service in 2001, about a year ahead of Sirius, now has six million subscribers, while Sirius has 3.3 million …. There now are more than 200 million listeners to conventional AM and FM radio …. XM’s automotive partners control about 60% of the U.S. auto market …. The vast bulk of Sirius radios are purchased by consumers at retailers like Best Buy and Circuit City, rather than as standard equipment in cars …. XM’s cost per acquiring a subscriber is roughly $100, versus about $200 for Sirius…. Both charge $12.95 a month or $142 a year for 125-plus channels of commercial-free music, news, talk and personalities …. Both recognized that there was a broad national audience for jazz, classical, blues and folk music — even if those genres couldn’t support commercial stations at the profit margins demanded by Clear Channel or CBS Radio …. Compare the duopoly in satellite radio with the looming free-for-all as satellite TV, cable TV and the Baby Bells fight for video and voice customers …. The music industry isn’t crazy about devices that allow subscribers to record off the air. XM and Sirius now pay less than $1 a month per subscriber in royalties to the music industry, far less than the estimated $4 to $6 a month that RealNetworks’ Rhapsody and other subscription services pay.” - Andrew Bary
“The structural-steel industry in the U.S. is now made up of three low-cost, profit-driven players. Nucor has 45% of the market. Chaparral has 30% and Steel Dynamics 15%. Imports make up the rest …. Water pipe installed in the U.S. over the past 100 years is beginning to fail. A large portion of America’s water pipes and valves will need to be replaced in the next 25 years.” - Meryl Witmer
“You have to emphasize international investments, largely in Asia. To give you an example, the market cap today of General Motors is $12 billion, Ford is $15 billion, Honda is $55 billion and Toyota is $172 billion. In 1970, IBM alone had a bigger market cap than the entire Japanese stock market. Over the next 10-20 years Asian markets, including Japan, could have 25% to possibly 50% of the world market cap, from 14% currently …. In the former Communist countries, property rights are improving dramatically because everything that can be stolen has already been stolen. The people who stole it want to have property rights so they can keep it …. In 1980, people were worried about consumer price inflation. No one dreamed the Dow, at the time around 900, would approach 12,000 or so, or that home prices would explode upward. However, consumer-price inflation gave way to asset-price inflation for the next 20-25 years. Now, if you look around the world, everybody believes asset inflation will continue. The Dow will continue going up, and home prices will keep rising. Nobody is concerned about consumer-price inflation.” - Marc Faber
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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January 20, 2006
Warren Buffett Explains How to Pan for GoldExcerpted from a recent talk Buffett had with students from the University of Kansas. (Read the whole thing… he talks about gold as a long-term investment, China as a place to invest, the importance of choosing a spouse and raising children, etc.)
“Back in the 1950s the Moody抯 and S&P manuals were a good source of information. This is panning for gold. Western Insurance Securities had EPS of $21.66 in 1949, EPS of $29.09 in 1950. The price range in 1950 was $3-13. I personally went to check out the company and found nothing wrong. I ran an ad in the Fort Scott Newspaper to find shares. . Now I抣l flip a few more pages to 1443. I was in gold territory! Here is National American Insurance. It had EPS of $29.02 and traded in a range of $27-28. This company was located a block and a half from where I was working at the time in Omaha. Again, I went to check it out and there was absolutely nothing wrong. Of course, a professor would say the markets are efficient so these stocks must have been priced right!
So the question is can you still do this today? . My broker at Citigroup told me to look through this Korean version of the Moody抯 guide. He said it would look just like 1951. He was right. I began flipping through the pages and found a lot of good companies trading at very low multiples. In 5-6 hours I put together a small portfolio of 20-25 stocks — about $100 million total. One example was DaeHan Flour Mills. It has a 25% market share in wheat flour in South Korea. Book value was 206,000 Won and the company had 201,000 Won in marketable securities and was trading at 2x earnings. The market is clearly not efficient all the time. There are certain opportunities that can make you fabulously rich.
You can increase your sources of investment ideas by widening your circle of competence. I抳e widened my circle over the years. I only needed to understand insurance in 1951. There were enough opportunities in that sector alone.”
– via VInvesting.com –
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Stock to Watch — Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX)Lionbridge Technologies (LIOX) moved sharply higher on nearly seven times average volume, but a look at the weekly chart shows that there are probably still sellers sitting above. (LIOX hit a high of $37.38 in September 1999 and a low of $0.45 in August 2001.) In any event, it’s
one to keep an eye on.
The Oil Services stocks continue to go higher and higher. You can still observe a lot just by watching.
“Lionbridge Technologies, Inc. provides globalization and testing services that enable clients to develop, release, manage, and maintain their enterprise content and technology applications worldwide. Lionbridge Technologies was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200601/20060119lioxw.png
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January 17, 2006
Top Ten Best Performing Stocks of 2005I was looking through the top ten best performing stocks of 2005 to see what they had in common.
[*]NutriSystem (NTRI) +1,163% | “weight management” | 25.3MM float[*]ViroPharma (VPHM) +469% | biotech | 65.4MM float[*]Titanium Metals (TIE) +424% | titanium | 13MM float[*]GMX Resources (GMXR) +416% | crude oil / natgas | 7.7MM float[*]PW Eagle (PWEI) +414% | PVC and PE pipe | 6.8MM float[*]Infosonics (IFO) +353% | wireless handsets | 1.4MM float[*]Cenveo (CVO) +324% | envelopes, forms, labels | 52MM float[*]Sonesta Int’l Hotels (NTRI) +315% | hotels | 2.9MM float[*]BTU International (BTUI) +313% | thermal processing systems | 5.8MM float[*]Myogen (MYOG) +273% | biotech | 25.9MM floatI was surprised by how many of them could have been identified early on by doing a “breakout to 52-week high on unusual volume” scan. When things that have been going sideways awhile finally bust-a-move, what follows can be impressive; it obviously pays to spend ten minutes a week running the scan and reviewing the charts. (I’m thinking about starting a newsletter called Bust-a-Move. ;-) )
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:43

January 16, 2006
Stock to Watch — Hydril (HYDL)Hydril broke above $70 on unusual volume last week. The stock has been going sideways for a good long time, so it may bust-a-move higher. (I’ve added HYDL to my list at stocktickr. I have three invitations to join stocktickr; if you’d like one, just email me.) The invites didn’t last long!
“Hydril Company engages in engineering, manufacturing, and marketing premium connection and pressure control products that are used for oil and gas drilling and production worldwide. Hydril was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200601/20060113hydlw.png

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Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 16, 2006Barron’s costs $50 in Hongkong (HKD), which is about $6.40 (USD). Funniest line in this week’s issue: some fund manager said “we’re relative value — not deep contrarian.” Did that make anyone else laugh out loud or do I have a unique sense of humor? Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting:
“The price of aluminum is up 35% in the past six months.” - James Atwood
“Samsung thinks demand for flash chips will triple this year.” - Leslie Norton
“Europe depends on Russia for a quarter of its natural gas imports …. Gazprom shares rose about 160% in rubles in 2005.” - Anna Raff
“A unit of Hong-Kong based Integrated Display Technology, which has shares traded on the Singapore and Hong Kong stock exchanges, Oregon Scientific is the U.S. leader in the high-tech home weather business.” - Jay Palmer
“To date, Apple has sold some 42 million iPods, 32 million in 2005. Apple has also sold 850 million songs on iTunes, which sounds like a big number but represents just 20 per iPod. Apple now has an 83% share of the market for portable music players.” - Eric Savitz
“Natural gas has plunged 22% this year and is down 46% in a month …. Coming into the year, the American Association of Individual Investors weekly poll showed only 29% bulls. In the same week, the Investors Intelligence survey of investment-newsletter writers showed 55.7% bulls and the Market Vane gauge of adviser sentiment toward stocks was at a lofty 70%.” - Michael Santoli
“The last of the 103 operating nuclear reactors built in the U.S. was the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Watts Bar reactor, opened in June 1996. The nuclear plants are in 31 states. Vermont — the Green Mountain State — turns out to be the poster state for the industry, getting 73.7% of its electric power from nuclear energy. It’s followed by South Carolina (54.5%), Connecticut (54.4%), New Jersey (51.9%), New Hampshire(43%) and New York (29%).” - Jim McTague
“While the Vanguard Retirement Target 2035 (VTTHX) — geared to investors in their mid-30s — has a 76% allocation to stocks and 24% bonds, the AllianceBernstein study, in contrast, recommends a 100% stock allocation for a 35-year-old. That falls to 93% at age 45, 79% at 55, 65% at 65 and 45% at 75. Meanwhile, T. Rowe Price Retirement 2035 (TRRJX) has 93% allocated to stocks, with the rest in bonds.” - Lawrence Strauss
“The difficulty with legacy costs is really the unintended consequence of two great technological achievements: Long life and high productivity. Industrial companies can produce the same or more output with fewer workers and those workers, once pensioned off, live longer to collect more benefits …. Since 1990, the percentage of companies offering defined-benefit plans has fallen from 83% to 45%.” - Thomas Donlan
“The largest U.S. exports are agriculture and entertainment.” - Mario Gabelli
“The consumer has only about 14% of his income dedicated to fixed payments.” - John Neff
“About 45% of Treasuries are owned by non-U.S. investors. The largest buyers by far in the last year have been investors based in the U.K. One reason could be U.K. pension accounting, which requires that long-term pension liabilities be matched with long-term pension assets. The other possibility is that petrodollars are being recycled. A lot of the OPEC nations have investment offices in London. This also may help explain a conundrum — why energy prices went up, yet bond yields went down. Some of these nations have been parking their money in Treasuries, and now may be thinking about other places to put it …. Emerging economies use two to three times as much energy per unit of GDP as the developed economies. If energy prices stay high or move higher, these economies will see more dislocation from it than we will.” - Abby Cohen
“U.S. investors should accelerate their exposure to non-dollar stocks, because the dollar as a currency is doomed …. The U.S., in terms of its wealth and strong currency policy, probably is at an apex. That’s not to say its prospects decline, but they decline relative to faster-growing economies, namely Asian economies …. Some would suggest that Japanese monetary policy — zero interest rates — and the Japanese carry trade that allowed people to borrow at zero and reinvest elsewhere at higher rates was the nexus for lower yields on a global basis …. Munis are the only bond-asset group that foreign investors haven’t bought. They won’t touch them because the tax-free advantages don’t make sense to them. So yields on munis, especially on the long side, have not gone down like Treasuries. You buy what others haven’t bought. It is the Buffett philosophy applied to municipal bonds.” - Bill Gross
“China is the second-largest user of oil in the world, and India is expanding rapidly …. China gets 90% of its oil from the Middle East …. The surprise for 2006 is the dollar will resume its downtrend …. I’m still recommending Asian assets, including currencies …. That is precisely the nature of a bubble. It is concentrated in a relatively narrow sector. The 2000 bubble in the stock market was concentrated in TMT . There wasn’t a bubble in U.S. Steel or copper stocks or oil. The apologists for the housing-market bubble in the U.S. always point out that it is concentrated in a few markets, but that has always been the case. I don’t buy that if the bubble in California, Florida and Texas deflates, it won’t have an impact on the economy …. The U.S. still accounts for over 50% of world stock-market capitalization. Japan is maybe 10%, and the rest of Asia, including China, India and Vietnam, is maybe 4%. It doesn’t take a genius to see why global managers are overweight Asia, for instance, and underweight the U.S. All the Middle Eastern markets went up in the order of 100% last year. Russia was up about 80%. Even Latin American markets went up 50% to 80%. In Asia, many markets are lower than they were in 1990 …. Capital spending in China is almost as high as in the U.S. China has a high savings rate and invests in new plants and equipment, infrastructure and so forth. China has a capital-spending bubble, whereas the U.S. has an asset bubble. The Chinese will buy some goods from the U.S., but mostly they buy from Europe. Aside from Ralph Lauren, Asians buy luxury goods from Europe …. China’s yearly per-capita consumption of oil is 1.7 barrels. U.S. per capita consumption is 27 barrels. Korea’s and Japan’s are 17 barrels. The U.S. has 740 vehicles per 1,000 people. In China there are three, and in India there’s one. Demand is going up, and prices will be much, much higher than they are today …. The notion of a savings glut is economic sophism. The cause of the savings glut is the growing U.S. trade and current-account deficits that feed liquidity into the world, leading to surpluses in Asia. Bernanke calls it a savings glut. It’s really a liquidity glut coming from the U.S. as a result of easy-money policies.” - Marc Faber
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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January 11, 2006
Away Until Next MondayI have to go to Hongkong today on “bidness,” but I’ll be back by next Monday. If you need to find me (and buy me dinner), I’ll be at the Four Seasons.
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Stocks to Watch — Apple Computer (AAPL)Here’s a monthly chart of Apple showing the (split-adjusted) prices at key times over the last decade. Folks who paid the “wrong” price at the peak of the bubble are doing just fine now assuming they hung in there. And those who bought during the depths of the bear market are
making a fortune.
“Apple Computer, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of personal computers and related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions worldwide. It also offers a line of portable digital music players, accessories, and services. Apple Computer
was co-founded by Steven P. Jobs in 1976. The company is headquartered in Cupertino, California.”
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January 10, 2006
Stocks to Watch - for Tuesday, January 10As a new feature I think I’ll post some quick observations from the Stocks to Watch lists every day:
[*]Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) - Possible double top at $45?[*]Lots of strength in the Homebuilders - KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL), and look at old Centex (CTX), rapidly approaching a new high.[*]LightPath (LPTH) looks like a day trader’s delight: 3.4MM share float and nearly 500 times average volume - zing![*]Notable Highs list has some nice looking breakouts, namely Corning (GLW) and Lexar Media (LEXR). Nice to see Trident Microsystems (TRID) (which I featured when
it broke out last month) making new highs.[*]Herbie Greenberg gnashes his teeth as both Hansen (HANS) and OmniVision (OVTI) hit new highs. Reality Check needs an Ego Check.[*]Notable Lows list is super-duper short. Hmmmm.time saved
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Stock to Watch — Focus Media (FMCN)Focus Media is a business I’m all too familiar with since they place around Beijing (and the
rest of China for that matter) these flat-panel screens showing ads. Any place you are captive (elevators, lobbies, checkout lines) you run into these awful things. The good news
is that I’ve figured out how to disable the screens in the lobbies of both my apartment building and my office. I’m looking forward to the day an enraged citizenry takes my lead
and starts smashing these execrable devices en masse.
“Focus Media Holding Limited, a holding company, operates an out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual flat-panel displays in the People’s Republic of China. The company’s flat-panel audiovisual displays are placed in elevators and lobbies of commercial office buildings, retail chain stores, beauty parlours, banks, pharmacies, hotels, and airports. As of June 30, 2005, it had 35,710 display units. Focus Media Holding was founded by Jason Nanchun Jiang in 2003 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.”
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January 9, 2006
Stock to Watch: bebe stores (BEBE)bebe stores (BEBE) made the Notable New Lows list last Friday. BEBE was a great favorite of momentum traders not long ago, but then the trend reversed and the stock has just collapsed. Specialty retail is a tough business and one that I’ve never liked. (A pair of fancy jeans is only $198 at bebe.)
“bebe stores, inc. engages in the design, development, and production of women抯 apparel and accessories. As of July 2, 2005, the company operated 214 stores, including 166 bebe stores, 31 BEBE SPORT stores, and 17 bebe outlet stores. These stores are located in the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Canada. In addition, the company operates an online store at www.bebe.com. The company was founded by Manny Mashouf in 1976 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.”
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Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 9, 2006Does anyone else find the term “price point” annoying? Just say price! An annoying redundancy I recently read was “mathematical odds.” What other kinds of odds are there? Just say odds! Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting in this week’s issue of Barron’s:
“The Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index gained 17.5% during 2005. Commodity-index-fund managers have about $70 billion to invest, up from $10 billion just five years ago.” — Susan Schwendener
“Rydex has $13.7 billion in assets in its 51 funds, while ProFund oversees $7.7 billion in its 95 funds (with 54 available to individual investors).” — Suzanne McGee
“A record $170 billion poured into commercial-mortgage-backed securities in 2005, topping by more than 70% the previous record, set in ‘04.” — John Levy
“Apple was the best tech stock in 2005, rising 123% …. none of the Apple bulls consider the cellphone a serious competitor to the iPod …. Verizon Wireless has almost 50 million customers and the company expects music to become as standard a feature on cellphones as cameras.” — Bill Alpert
“The first currency exchange-traded fund — the Euro Currency Trust (ticker: FXE), which tracks the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar — began trading last month. In addition, EverBank (www.everbank.com) offers money-market accounts and certificates of deposit denominated in an array of currencies (including the Icelandic krona, which yields over 8%) and gold.” — Theresa Carey, Kathy Yakal
“One area Mutual Series sees value is forest products; its holdings there include Potlatch (PCH), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and International Paper (IP). Each owns extensive timberland, which Peter Langerman thinks is being dramatically undervalued by the stock market. Timber properties are both long-lived and renewable. They also provide steady, long-term returns generally uncorrelated with securities’ returns… smart investors like the Harvard Endowment Fund have been buying into timberland of late.” — Jonathan Laing
“Fama and French focus on small stocks, rather than large ones, and value, rather than growth. Both approaches, they assert, provide excess returns. (They define value stocks as those with a high book value-to-price ratio, a variation on low price-to-book.) …. Where DFA does invest energy is in aggressively seeking to buy positions by acquiring large blocks of shares at negotiated prices below the market …. ‘you can’t distinguish professional money managers from the universe of orangutans,’ says David Booth.” — Eric Savitz
“Wal-Mart waited years after DVDs became prevalent before offering them aggressively, having waited until they reached prices suitable for its mass customer base. Flat-screen TVs got there in around a year. Wal-Mart’s market share in consumer electronics is estimated to be less than 20%. Wal-Mart began selling product warranties for the first time Oct. 1 and is dramatically undercutting Best Buy and others by pricing them as much as two-thirds off the prevailing prices. Some 90% of typical warranty sales go to the bottom line, and this makes up an outsized portion of electronics retailers’ profits.” — Michael Santoli
“Of the 2,640 companies that venture capitalists initially backed that year , 1098, or 36%, still were private as of early November 2005. (A mere 33 were public, while the rest had been acquired or gone out of business.) …. Vonage Holdings — a provider of voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP — which has raised more than $400 million of equity financing and $250 million of debt. Vonage, based in Holmdel, N.J., is expected to file for an IPO that could raise as much as $600 million, which would value the company at $2 billion.” — Russ Garland and Brian Gormley
“Ninety percent of your focus has to be on buying the bonds at the right price point, the right time. And if you do that, the sell side will take care of itself. These are bonds; they are not stocks, they do mature. As their credit improves, their cost of finance goes down, they refinance …. I’ve been asked a number of times in recent weeks, with this blah scenario for bonds — and it is blah, although the returns go up over time — what could go wrong. And I think peace is what you have got to worry about. In addition, you have two more things you worry about these days, which are weather and water.” — Dan Fuss, interviewed by Randall Forsyth
“GM’s equity holders probably would be wiped out or badly hurt in a bankruptcy while bondholders could come out whole, recovering values well above current trading levels. Several GM bond issues were down 40% or more last year, nearly as much as the stock …. GM, unlike most companies, sold a lot of debt to retail investors and those issues, as well as three large convertible bonds, are traded like stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. (Details of GM’s Retail and Convertible Bonds) These bonds were sold at $25 each and now trade at a deep discount to their face value. General Motors Acceptance Corp., GM’s giant finance arm, also has sold several retail-targeted bonds. (ticker: GKM)” — Andrew Bary
“Indian casinos exploit the antiquated legal pretense that tribes are independent nations. Federal and state laws on Indian gambling are usually justified as promoting economic development on reservations. But the operations have become a wide-open industry, with more than 400 casinos operated by 226 tribes and bands in 28 states amassing revenues of about $20 billion a year. Overseeing this industry, attempting to keep it safe from corruption and the influence of organized crime, the National Indian Gaming Commission had 79 employees and a budget of $9.3 million at the last report, which covered the year 2003 …. If we had never imagined that most of the money spent to promote causes in Washington never gets counted officially, our eyes would be open now. Compare the four tribes’ $52 million payments to Abramoff and friends with the $7.1 million that all tribes recorded in 2004 as official contributions to Congressional candidates and campaign committees, and the $17 million that all tribes recorded as lobbying expenditures.” — Thomas Donlan
“… consumers racked up 17.5% more on their Visa cards during the holiday season than a year earlier …. At Circuit City, comparable-store sales of TV sets posted double digit growth, led by triple-digit growth in flat-panel TVs. Sales of liquid crystal display and plasma TV sets posted triple-digit sales growth at Best Buy, even as sales of tube TVs suffered double digit declines …. (Best Buy also reported double-digit growth in sales of MP3 players) …. this year, consumers clamored for high definition TVs …. 5.2 million LCD TVs were shipped in the third quarter globally, up 29.5% from the second quarter and 137% from a year earlier …. worldwide LCD-TV shipments probably totaled 19.6 million in 2005, versus 8.9 million in 2004 …. The reason TV sales have boomed is that prices are down 50% over the past 12 months …. 26-inch LCD TVs were priced at about $1,300 over Christmas …. Shares of Samsung Electronics rose 46% in 2005 and shot above $100 billion in market value this year, making it Asia’s fourth-largest company after Toyota Motor, PetroChina, and Mitsubishi UFJ Holdings…. Both Samsung and LG Philips started mass production on new, seventh-generation fabrication plants, which will produce panels 40 inches and larger, considered the sweet spot for TV home theaters. Sharp, the world’s largest manufacturer of LCD TVs, will start eighth-generation operations in October 2006, for 45-inch panels.” — Leslie Norton
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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January 6, 2006
Stock to Watch: True Religion Apparel (TRLG)True Religion Apparel (TRLG) made the Notable New Highs list yesterday, moving to a new high on nearly six times average volume. You can see that the stock has been going sideways for a good long while, so it might bust-a-move higher. If you put some patches and unique stitching on low-rider jeans, then people will pay $372 for a pair. (The Chairman shakes his head and chuckles.)
“True Religion Apparel, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, Guru Denim, Inc., engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of fashion jeans and other apparel. Its products include jeans, skirts, denim jackets, and tops. The company also operated a retail store in Manhattan Beach, California, as of December 5, 2005. The company is based in Los Angeles, California.”
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January 5, 2006
Looking Over the Stocks to Watch ListsI don’t want to toot my own horn, but reviewing my Stocks to Watch lists every day is worth your while. It takes about a minute or so to scan through the names on the list and when you’re done you have a very good sense of what’s going on in the market. Taking today’s lists as an example, let’s see what’s going on:
[*]Notable New Highs - I see Bema Gold (BGO), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Phelps Dodge (PD), DRDGOLD (DROOY), which makes me think the metals are still very strong. And then there’s Schwab (SCHW - recently moved to Nasdaq from the NYSE (good for them)), and
optionsXpress (OXPS), which makes me think the brokers are doing fine.[*]Usual Suspects - I see a ton of Oil Service stocks here, with the HOLDR (OIH) at the top of the list… along with Schlumberger (SLB), Nat’l Oilwell (NOV), Noble (NE), and Nabors (NBR) all at or near new highs. So I know Oil Service is still strong (this is no surprise to anyone who read the interview with Matt Simmons in this week’s Barron’s, which I briefly excerpted earlier this week).[*]Notable New Lows - Gee, that list looks super short… what can that mean?[*]Random Observations - There’s Google (GOOG) at $445 a share. I see a bunch of stuff moving up or breaking out on unusual volume: Pixar (PIXR),BMC Software (BMC), F5 Networks (FFIV), Peabody Energy (BTU) (featured yesterday), eResearch (ERES), HealthExtras (HLEX),
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS), TTM Technologies (TTMI), NVIDIA (NVDA), Dynamic Materials (BOOM), Zoran (ZRAN), Cummins (CMI)…. not exactly looking like a lot of weakness out there.I think you can see the value in taking two minutes out of your day to look over the lists. They’re free and always will be.
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:44

January 5, 2006
Stock to Watch: SiRF Technology (SIRF)SiRF Technology (SIRF) made the Notable New Highs list yesterday on a nice breakout. You can see that the price has been sitting in the $25-$30 range (nice round numbers!) for several months, and may finally be ready to bust-a-move. (Bust-a-move is a term both recognized and endorsed by the Association of Certified Market Technicians.)
“SiRF Technology Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, engages in the development and marketing of global positioning system (GPS) semiconductor solutions that provide location awareness capabilities in high-volume mobile consumer and commercial applications. The company was founded by Kanwar Chadha in 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.”
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January 2, 2006
Domain Name Server YNS1.YAHOO.COM Not Accessible from ChinaThe good news is I successfully switched servers at Yahoo so that I can use the WordPress blogging software. The bad news is I can’t view maoxian.com from China anymore (without using a proxy server) since the Great Firewall blocks access to that group of Yahoo servers. What this means is that I will soon be switching hosts, so the site may go away again, but I’ll warn you in advance of the move.
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2005 Returns for Selected Vanguard FundsHere are the total returns for calendar-year 2005 for selected Vanguard Funds:
[*]Prime Money Market Fund: 3.00%
[*]Short-Term Bond Index Fund: 1.30%[*]Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund: 1.74%[*]Long-Term Bond Index Fund: 5.31%[*]GNMA Fund: 3.32%[*]High-Yield Corporate Fund: 2.75%[*]Inflation-Protected Securities Fund: 2.59%[*]Total Bond Market Index Fund: 2.38%
[*]500 Index Fund: 4.77%[*]Convertible Securities Fund: 6.60%[*]Dividend Growth Fund: 4.23%[*]Total Stock Market Index Fund: 5.98%
[*]Extended Market Index Fund: 10.29%[*]Mid-Cap Index Fund: 13.93%[*]Small-Cap Index Fund: 7.36%
[*]Energy Fund: 44.60%[*]Health Care Fund: 15.41%[*]Precious Metals and Mining Fund: 43.79%[*]REIT Index Fund: 11.89%
[*]Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund: 32.05%[*]European Stock Index Fund: 9.69%[*]Pacific Stock Index Fund: 22.59%[*]Total International Stock Index Fund: 15.57%
Total returns for calendar-year 2004 for selected Vanguard Funds.
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Interesting Bits in Barron’s — Week of January 2, 2006Here are the (lightly edited) bits I found interesting in this week’s issue of Barron’s:
[ed. Jack Welch wrote a letter to the editor that included five! exclamation points.]
“India is attractive because it has a unique combination of many distressed bank loans but a healthy, growing economy and a well-defined legal system.” — Wilbur Ross
“High-profile bankruptcy filings in 2005: Anchor Glass Container, Calpine, Collins & Aikman, Delphi, Delta Air Lines, and Northwest Airlines.” — Tom Sullivan
“For the 13th time in 14 years, option trading volume grew in 2005 at a record pace… More than 1.5 billion options traded in the U.S., a 27% jump from 2004. These included nearly 1.37 billion stock options (up 26%), and about 135 million index options (up 38%).” — Kopin Tan
“2005 was a bang-up year for investors in private equity, natural resources, oil and gas and emerging-market stocks …. Online sales jumped 30% over 2004, accounting for more than 25% of all holiday-shopping dollars spent …. Two-year Treasury yields rose above 10-year yields, inverting the yield curve for the first time since 2000 (4.41% on the two-year Treasury, 4.39% on the 10-year).” — Robin Blumenthal and Vito Racanelli
“The spot price of uranium oxide was recently quoted at $36.25 a pound, up 300% in three years and up from about $7 in 2000 …. Annual demand for nuclear fuel is now equal to 180 million pounds of uranium, while only 108 million pounds of ore were produced in 2005 …. there are about 140 new reactors planned worldwide, many in Asia, versus the 440 existing today (including 104 U.S. reactors) .” — Spencer Jakab
“The Euro Dogs strategy calls for buying equal dollar amounts of the 15 stocks in the DJ Stoxx 50 with the highest dividend yields on January 1, and holding them for the year… Each year the portfolio is updated with the highest-yielding names. The updated 2006 Euro Dogs portfolio will be full of European telecom stocks, 2005’s worst performers.” — Vito Racanelli
“Asian markets rose nicely in 2005. The widely followed Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia ex-Japan index returned 20.5% through the third week of December, in U.S. dollars, and the MSCI Japan index was up 25% …. A 38% gain for the Nikkei was 21% for investors with dollar-denominated portfolios. Similarly, a 16% gain in Australian shares shriveled to under 9%, and a 42% advance in Indian stocks fell to 36%.” — Leslie Norton
“Barclays iShares and State Street’s streetTRACKS are the 800-pound gorillas of the ETF industry. And they’ve relished its big rise in assets, which jumped from just $2.3 billion in 1995 to roughly $400 billion worldwide at the end of November …. The two companies accounted for 69% of assets in such funds globally, as of Nov. 30. Barclays’ 146 funds had $187.49 billion in assets, while State Street’s 50 funds had $91.79 billion. Bank of New York is a distant third, but nonetheless has a respectable $30.24 billion in just six ETFs.” — Erin Arvedlund
“James McGregor’s book, One Billion Customers, argues that the Chinese system is almost incompatible with honesty.” — Kim-Ming Liu
“1,012 U.S.-based publicly traded companies declared $456 billion worth of stock-repurchase plans in 2005, a record.” — Shirley Lazo
“As that splendid poet Rupert Brooke observed, history repeats itself, historians repeat one another.” — Alan Abelson
“Prices for everything except fossil fuels are being held down by productivity increases, international competition and excess manufacturing capacity …. in 2005 the US set records in the number of homeowners, new homebuyers and the amount of principal owed on home mortgages.” — Thomas Donlan
“One out of every eight of the 1.1 million Koreans in America owns a business …. Koreans flock to Center Financial, Hanmi Financial, Nara Bancorp and Wilshire Bancorp. Ethnic Chinese favor Cathay General, East-West Bancorp and UCBH Holdings …. East-West and Wilshire draw more than 80% of their loan volume from mortgage and construction loans. For the rest of the seven, the share ratio is over 60%.” — Richard Phalon
“In the U.S., Pitney Bowes controls 80% of the mail-metering market; worldwide, its market share is near 65%, and it has only one major competitor, France’s Neopost.” — Neil Martin
“The U.S. currently spends $6 billion to $8 billion each month for troops in Iraq, with the actual figure depending on the size and frequency of military operations. Total spending for 2005 will be in the neighborhood of $80 billion.” — Jim McTague
“It is utterly obvious the North Sea oil peaked in 1999 …. Demand for oil is still accelerating. For the top 25 emerging markets, GDP change year-over-year is averaging up 5.5% for 25 countries. Argentina is 10.1%. Chile is 5.2%. China is 9.4%. Hong Kong, 8.2%. India, 8%. Indonesia, 5.3%. Malaysia is 5.3%. The Philippines is 4.1%. Singapore is 6%. Embedded in that is a continuation of an inexhaustible increase in the use of oil, particularly in the countries where they are barely using any oil. The wealthier they get, the faster they start using oil. The idea that $60 oil is really hurting the emerging economies is a myth. It doesn’t seem to be affecting them at all. The Energy Information Administration numbers that came out recently showed the U.S. crossed 22 million barrels a day of petroleum use, a brand new record. So it is not stopping the U.S., either. To everyone’s surprise, the economy grew by 4% in the third quarter, even with the hurricanes. That was when we had almost $65 oil …. When 85% of the things in Wal-Mart we buy come from China, the implications for trucks on the highway system is profound …. We are starting to bump into capacity limitations in the funniest places: tires on big trucks, rigs, people, refineries, pipelines, tankers, well-head capacity …. I’ve placed a $5,000 bet that oil prices will average $200 a barrel in 2010. I don’t have any idea where oil prices are headed but they could easily be above $200 a barrel. At $65 a barrel, or 10 cents a cup, we are still grossly underpricing oil, which is why it doesn’t have any impact on demand …. we have to take a page out of Whole Foods, one of the most successful food models ever, by having a stringer system of organic farms within 20 miles of their stores …. a handful of us pessimists were warning in 1999 through 2002 that we had a massive natural-gas crisis on our hands because we built almost 30% of our generation capacity for electricity and all growth from here on out on gas-powered power plants thinking we had an abundant amount of natural gas. Natural gas has peaked and we are in decline …. I don’t have the vaguest idea why the major oil companies could ever think we are going back to $25 oil other than their business model desperately needs that to happen to have their long-term strategy work. High oil prices are very bad news for big oil. The higher the price, the more proven reserves they’ve already booked they lose in these foreign concessions, because once their projects hit their payout targets, then the host government’s share rises. I think the major oil companies are lost in the wilderness right now.” — Matthew Simmons, interviewed by Sandra Ward
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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December 23, 2005
ETF to Watch: iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)EFA made the Notable New Highs list yesterday. Look at a list of year-to-date returns for equity markets outside the US (one of the back pages of the Economist magazine always provides a nice table) and you’ll be amazed by the numbers.
“The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.”
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December 22, 2005
Lehman Acquires RealTickLehman Acquires Townsend Analytics, by Alexa Jaworski.
“Like others that have gone this route in the past couple of years — Citigroup with its acquisition of Lava Trading, Bank of New York with Sonic Trading, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. with Neovest — Lehman is underscoring its commitment to the ‘broker-neutrality’ of the acquired technology while claiming a strategic advantage for itself.”
I’ve always thought that the best thing about RealTick is its HotTrend scanner.
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Stock to Watch: FedEx (FDX)FedEx made the Notable New Highs list yesterday. I’ve posted the quarterly chart below to give you a little longer-term perspective.
“FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services worldwide. The company operates in four segments: FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, FedEx Freight, and FedEx Kinko’s.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051221fdxq.png

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December 21, 2005
Stocks to Watch: General Motors (GM), Capital One Financial (COF)I featured GM as a Notable New Low back on November 10th, and here it is again making another low. I’m worried about GM’s pension obligations, and you should be too. (One of the areas that I studied closely in business school was pensions, which was extremely fortunate since one of the major problems on my CPA exam had to do with pension accounting, and I nailed it.)
“General Motors Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of cars and light trucks worldwide. It operates through Automotive, and Financing and Insurance Operations (FIO) segments.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051220gmw.png

Capital One made the Notable New Highs list. Everyone knows that the newly bankrupt are among the best credit risks, and people who haven’t read The Merchant of Venice are never extended a “customer courtesy.”
“Capital One Financial Corporation operates as a holding company, which provides various consumer financial products and services, primarily in the United States. The company, through its subsidiary, Capital One Bank, offers credit card products and accepts retail deposits, including certificates of deposit, money market accounts, and individual retirement accounts. Its other subsidiary, Capital One, F.S.B. offers consumer and commercial lending, and consumer deposit products.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051220cofw.png

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December 20, 2005
Describing My Internet Surfing BehaviorBloglines is down today which made me realize what a large chunk of time I spend there. I thought it would be interesting to describe how dull my internet surfing behavior is. This list is in the order of places I go.
[*]My Yahoo - this is my homepage and the first thing I see every day. I look at the Headlines from Reuters (Top Stories, Business, US Markets). I also look at Headlines from the New York Times, Washington Post, and BBC. I also check email at Yahoo which isn’t much since everyone now writes to me at:[*]Gmail - I have a personal email account for friends and family (which gets no spam) and a maoxian email account for acquaintances and spammers (Google catches almost all of the spam, thank god).[*]Google Adsense - I next look at my Adsense revenue to see if I broke the 50 cent mark for the day.[*]Sitemeter - I go here to see where my 12 daily visitors are coming from.[*]Bloglines - I review quite a few Headlines, Summaries, and Full Text posts from the various blogs that I follow. I only read a couple dozen blogs closely, but scanning their feeds can still take a lot of time, and if I find anything that looks interesting I post it to:[*]del.icio.us - A great online bookmark site; if I don’t have time to read something in full, or if I find something very cool, I’ll bookmark it here.
I never ever bookmark anything to my browser anymore. (Yahoo! recently bought del.icio.us, which was a brilliant move.)[*]Anonymouse - If there are any things I have to read at sites that are blocked in China (which includes all typepad and blogspot sites), I use Anonymouse.[*]Wall Street Journal ($ - no link) - I scan the Headlines (”Today’s Print Edition”) and usually end up reading two or three articles in full (usually China-related). I also look at the Asian edition for small reports that didn’t make the US edition.That’s it. Pretty boring, eh? Oh, and I never see any online ads because I use Firefox with the precious Adblock extension. When I’m forced to use Microsoft’s
Internet Explorer (in the coffeeshop for instance), I have to stop surfing after about three minutes because I’m being assaulted by ads that I can’t block — how revolting! If you haven’t switched to Firefox, you must be living on the moon.
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Stock to Watch: TheStreet.com (TSCM)TheStreet.com made my Notable New Highs list yesterday. I’ve posted the monthly chart below so you can see the price history since the company came public back in May 1999. There are a lot of amusing (horrifying) stories that Cramer tells about TSCM in his book, Confessions of a Street Addict. (I never visit TheStreet.com and wouldn’t dream of subscribing to RealMoney.)
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051219tscmm.png

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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-22 10:45

Sugar’s Sweet Run Near an EndThe huge move put in by sugar finally got a mention in Barron’s, so I assume the end is near. Trend followers have been long continuously since last June.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051216sbd.png

Sugar futures (March 2006), Daily Chart
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December 16, 2005
Third Ring Road at 5:30 PMThe other day I promised to take a picture of the traffic on Beijing’s Third Ring Road during rush hour, so here it is. Yes, it’s a crummy shot, and I agree that the traffic isn’t that bad, but today is Friday (when traffic is usually much worse) so I might try to take another picture tonight. The important point I’m trying to make is that a decade ago almost none of these cars were here. (Sales of privately owned family vehicles rose from just 640,000 in 2000 to 3.1 million in 2005.)
This is the eastern part of the Third Ring Road, and I’m looking northeast. (I have a corner office about 20 stories up). The tall building in the upper left of the photo is Jingguang Zhongxin, a very early skyscraper in Beijing. This part of the city used to be almost completely bare except for Jingguang Zhongxin and GuoMao (China World Trade Center), but now there are dozens of tall buildings here, filled with people, many of whom unfortunately choose to drive to work.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/traffic.jpg
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Stock to Watch — 24/7 Real Media (TFSM)24/7 Real Media made my Notable New Highs list yesterday, breaking out on over three times average volume.
“24/7 Real Media, Inc. and its subsidiaries offer a suite of media services, and software products and services for the online advertising needs of Web publishers and advertisers. It offers Web representation, search marketing services, advertisement serving and targeting, analytics, and audience management. The company operates in three segments: Media Solutions, Search Solutions, and Technology Solutions. 24/7 Real Media is headquartered in New York City.”
TFSM did a reverse five-for-one stock split in February 2004, so the reverse-split-adjusted high for the stock, hit back in April 1999, is around $350 a share, and the all-time low is $0.45 (that’s 9 cents a share without the reverse split), which was hit shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attack. Once again, if you bought during the mania you were wiped out, but if you bought at the gloomy depths you are making a fortune.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051215tfsmd.png

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December 15, 2005
Stocks to Watch — Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), Panera Bread (PNRA)Canadian Natural Resources and Panera Bread both made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company’s principal regions of crude oil and natural gas operations are in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea; and Offshore west Africa. As of December 31, 2004, the company’s oil and natural gas reserves include 1,066 MMbbls of crude oil and natural gas liquids and 2,690 Bcf of natural gas. The company was incorporated in 1973 as AEX Minerals Corporation, changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in 1975, and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.”
I plan to post some pictures of rush hour traffic on the Third Ring Road here in Beijing to drive home (pun intended) the point that everyone should be long-term bullish on energy stocks.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051214cnqw.png

“Panera Bread Company engages in the ownership and franchising of bakery-cafes in the United States. Its bakery-cafes sell fresh baked goods, made-to-order sandwiches and salads, soups, and cafe beverages, including various baked bagels, breads, muffins, scones, rolls, and sweet goods; made-to-order sandwiches on freshly baked breads; custom roasted coffees; and cafe beverages, such as hot or cold espresso and cappuccino drinks. The company’s bakery-cafes are principally located in suburban strip mall and regional mall locations. Its target customers include suburban dwellers and workers. As of October 4, 2005, Panera operated 265 company-owned bakery-cafes and 560 franchise-operated bakery-cafes. The company was organized in 1981 as Au Bon Pain Co., Inc. and changed its name to Panera Bread Company in 1999. Panera is based in Richmond Heights, Missouri.”
I have two words for you, Benjamin: Artisan Bread. Shortly after I sung the praises of Panera in a Chat about Retaurant Stocks last June, the stock price dropped 20% or so (it often happens that way, lol), but folks who stayed the course are happy.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051214pnraw.png

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December 14, 2005
Baby T’s Checkup at 11 MonthsWe took baby in for his regular checkup yesterday and the doctor was very pleased with his growth. T weighed in at 11.2 kilograms (24.69 pounds) and measured in at 77.5 centimeters (30.51 inches), which everyone present considered mighty good. He also has eight teeth (front top and bottom). His flexibility is excellent and although he is not yet walking, he enjoys “cruising,” which means walking around the room supporting himself on various objects (sofas, chairs, coffee tables, his father’s legs, etc.).
He is not yet talking, but he does say babababababa and ohyeahohyeahohyeah, and he will bark at his stuffed animal dogs — wooo woooo! The doctor believes that the current language environment filled with Shanghainese, Beijingese, English, and a sprinkling of Yiddish swear words probably confuses baby, so his language acquisition will be late. We’ll see. As long as he doesn’t end up barking in four languages, I’ll be happy.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/tbotteethsmall.jpg
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Stocks to Watch — Boeing (BA), Wendy’s (WEN)Boeing and Wendy’s both made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“The Boeing Company operates in the aerospace industry worldwide. The Commercial Airplanes segment develops, produces, and markets commercial jet aircraft, as well as provides related support services primarily to the commercial airline industry. This segment’s family of commercial jet aircraft includes the 717 and 737 narrow-body models, as well as the 747, 767,
777, and 787 wide-body models. The IDS segment involves in the research, development, production, modification, and support of military aircraft, helicopters and missiles, space systems, missile defense systems, satellites and satellite launching vehicles, rocket engines, and information and battle management systems. The Boeing Company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.”
We are long-term shareholders of Boeing. The most obvious time to have purchased Boeing in the past five years was following the September 11 terrorist attacks when the stock price fell briefly below $30 a share.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051213baw.png

“Wendy’s International, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the operation, development, and franchising of a system of quick service and fast casual restaurants. As of June 27, 2004, the company operated 6,535 Old Fashioned Hamburgers restaurants, 2,370 Tim Hortons restaurants, and 305 Baja Fresh Mexican Grill restaurants. Wendy’s International was founded in 1969 by Dave Thomas and is based in Dublin, Ohio.”
I’ve never seen a Wendy’s here in China so they have room to grow. Crappy fast food has universal appeal because there are stupid, lazy people everywhere.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051213wenw.png

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December 13, 2005
Stocks to Watch — Sify (SIFY), Rediff.com (REDF)Sify and Rediff.com both made my Notable New Highs list yesterday.
“Sify Limited operates as an integrated Internet, network, and electronic commerce services company in India. Its service offerings include corporate network and data services, Internet access services, and online portal and content offerings. The company, formerly known as Satyam Infoway Limited, was organized in 1995. Sify is headquartered in Chennai, India.”
SIFY did a 1 for 4 reverse-split at the depths of the bear market (September 2002) making its split-adjusted all-time high around $450 back in February 2000. So depending on what price you paid, you either love SIFY or (still) hate it.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051212sifyd.png

“Rediff.com India Limited provides online news, information, communication, entertainment, and shopping services focusing on India and the worldwide Indian community. The company was founded in 1996 by Ajit Balakrishnan under the name Rediff Communication Private Limited. It subsequently changed its name to Rediff.com India Limited in 2000. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India.”
Rediff.com’s price history isn’t as dramatic as Sify’s since they came public in June 2000. REDF fell from its high of $27.75 in June 2000 straight down to $0.21 in October 2002. So right now folks who paid the wrong price are looking forward to breaking even, whereas the buyers at the depths of the bear market are looking at gains of over 100 times their investment. The price you pay matters.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051212redfd.png

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December 12, 2005
Titanium Metals (TIE) - Possible Top?Titanium Metals (TIE) is frequently on the Notable New Highs list, but I thought last Friday’s action looked a little ominous and decided it deserves a closer look.
“Titanium Metals Corporation produces titanium melted and mill products. The company offers titanium sponge, melted, and mill products for aerospace, industrial, and other applications. The company is based in Denver, Colorado.”
On the weekly chart below, you can see the enormous run the stock has had since the beginning of 2003. Over the last eight weeks or so the price has doubled once again.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051209tiew.png

Looking at the daily chart below, you can see that last Friday an “outside reversal” bar formed with the volume over five-and-a-half times above average. This isn’t necessarily the end of the world, but it probably means that price will go sideways at best, and may even mean a top of some sort is in place. If you hold TIE, keep this in mind as you do your year-end portfolio rebalancing.
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051209tied.png

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December 9, 2005
Stocks to Watch — Shanda (SNDA), Powerwave Technologies (PWAV)Shanda is a Notable New Low and Powerwave is a Notable New High, both taken from my list of Stocks to Watch. Yesterday, the Notable New Highs list was packed with stocks from the oil services sector: SLB, RIG, BHI, NBR, BJS. This is no surprise to readers of my November 23 post.
Shanda has been showing up on the NNL list day after day, so I decided to feature it.
“Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited engages in the development and operation of online games in China. It offers a portfolio of online games, which users play over the Internet. The company’s content offerings primarily consist of online games, including massively multiplayer online role playing games (MMORPGs) and casual games. MMORPGs are action-adventure based, and draw upon martial arts and combat themes. Casual games are session-based, which can be played to a conclusion within a short period of time. Shanda Interactive Entertainment was founded in 1999 by Tianqiao Chen and Danian Chen. The company is based in Shanghai, China.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051208sndad.png

Powerwave broke out nicely on double its average volume. I’ve added it to my stocktickr list. (I don’t have time to explain what stocktickr is right now, but Trader Mike wrote a good post about it.)
“Powerwave Technologies, Inc. supplies wireless solutions for wireless communications networks worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Wireless Communications and Contract Manufacturing. The company is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.”
http://maoxian.com/images/200512/20051208pwavd.png

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