Stock to Watch — OMI Corp. (OMM)OMI moved to a new high on exactly twice average volume. You can see from the weekly chart that the stock has gone nowhere for a year and a half, so a breakout here is worth watching.
OMI Corporation operates as a seaborne transporter of crude oil and refined petroleum products in the international shipping markets. As of December 31, 2005, OMI’s fleet comprised 33 product carriers and 13 Suezmax tankers. The company offers its services to commercial and government-owned oil companies, and oil trading companies. OMI was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060620ommw.png
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June 18, 2006
I’m Thrilled: Sentiment at Worst Levels Since March 2003Last Friday the ISE Sentiment Index recorded a level of bearishness not seen since March 2003. This combined with the spiking VIX is very bullish. I’ve featured the MidCap SPDR (MDY) below since it has formed such a nice looking hammer on the weekly chart, after completing a typical ABC correction.
It’s not a bad time to be bullish, I think, and these are the kind of stocks I’ve been putting money in of late. You gotta buy ‘em (great businesses) when they ain’t (at bargain prices).
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060616sentiment.png
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Stock to Watch — Memry (MRY)Memry moved to a new high on over six times average volume — but keep in mind that this stock is very thinly traded. There’s a massive ascending triangle on the chart stretching back to 2002, so this breakout bears watching.
Memry Corporation engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of products and components primarily for the medical device industry. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Bethel, Connecticut.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060616mryw.png
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Stock to Watch — Enersys (ENS)Enersys moved to a new high on over twice average volume after going sideways for awhile — definitely one to keep an eye on.
EnerSys engages in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of lead-acid industrial batteries worldwide. It offers reserve power batteries and motive power batteries. EnerSys was founded in 1999. It was formerly known as Yuasa, Inc. and changed its name to EnerSys in 2001. The company is headquartered in Reading, Pennsylvania.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060614ensw.png
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Following the Hourly Trend in GoldIt’s a good idea to watch the charts on multiple time frames at the same time: put the weekly, daily, and hourly charts all on a single screen. If you use a trend-following system you can see the trend shift first on the hourly, then on the daily, and eventually on the weekly.
Here’s a look at the hourly Gold Trust (GLD) which shows that the trend flipped down in the middle of May. The trend on the daily flipped down on June 6, and the weekly trend is still up.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060613gld60.png
Related: WAG: Gold at $450 in October 2006
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Hammer Time and Heavy VolumeA “formed in just about every major stock index today, almost all on unusual volume. The QQQQ traded 280,562,157 shares which is over 2.5 times average volume. The bulls have drawn a line in the sand.
To quote the great Walter Sobchak:
I’m talking about drawing a line in the sand, Dude. Across this line you do not pass.
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June 8, 2006
Oil Services Top is Significant and Has Broad ImplicationsAmong the 249 ETFs I follow (well, the computer follows), the Oil Services marked the top not just of Toll Brothers but the whole Homebuilders group.
So the failed trade in the OIH may mark the top not just of the Oil Services sector but the broad market as well. I think we’ve seen the highs for 2006, folks. (Famous last words?)
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Indeed. And why would anyone want to work at this dying behemoth:
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Stock to Watch — Live Nation (LYV)Like Mastercard, this is another recently issued stock that has held up very well in a deadly market.
Live Nation is a leading live event, venue and digital distribution company focused on creating superior experiences for artists, performers, corporations and fans. Live Nation owns, operates and/or has booking rights for 153 venues worldwide and produced more than 29,500 events in 2005. Live Nation is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060606lyvd.png
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Stock to Watch — Mastercard (MA)Mastercard has held up remarkably well after listing into this MasterCard Incorporated operates as a payment solutions company. It provides transaction processing and related services to customers principally in support of their credit, deposit access, electronic cash and automated teller machine payment card programs, and travelers’ cheque programs. The company manages a family of payment card brands, including MasterCard, MasterCard Electronic, Maestro, and Cirrus, which it licenses to these financial institutions. As of December 31, 2005, MasterCard Incorporated served approximately 25,000 financial institutions worldwide. The company was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
“Payment solutions.” Gag! Lord, please spare me from more “solutions.”
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June 2, 2006
Stock to Watch — TXU (TXU)TXU moved to a new high after going sideways for a while, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
TXU Corp. operates as a holding company that manages a portfolio of competitive and regulated energy businesses in Texas. As of December 31, 2005, TXU provided electricity and related services to 2.3 million retail electricity customers in Texas, and the company owned or leased approximately 18,300 megawatts of generation, including 2,300 megawatts of nuclear and 5,837 megawatts of lignite/coal-fired generation capacity. TXU Corp. was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060601txuw.png
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Notable New Highs — June 1, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060601nnh.png
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June 1, 2006
Five Big TrendsTurn short-term fear into long-term profit, by Jim Jubak
I never read Jim Jubak, but I was over at MSN for some reason and ran across this article that I thought was pretty good. These are the five trends that form the backbone his long-term investing strategy:
[*]The developing world is growing richer[*]Demand for commodities will continue to exceed supply[*]We’ve seen the low in the inflation cycle[*]The world is getting older fast[*]The dollar will continue to slideOne trend he doesn’t mention directly that’s worth knowing about is the number of rich Chinese traveling abroad. This is huge. In the past week I’ve had lunch with three different people (all young, all nouveau riche professionals) who surprised me by saying they went abroad for the May Day holiday — to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Related: The Chinese Impact on World Tourism
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Bulls Rejoice: The Little Guy is Piling into PutsThe ISE Sentiment Index finally shows more puts being bought than calls. The last time the number of puts purchased exceeded the number of calls was back on October 1, 2004. You’ll recall that there was quite a bit of nervousness leading up to the US Presidential election. (The American public in its infinite wisdom reelected Zhlubya — an act of mass stupidity which still appalls and disgusts me, but I digress.)
Anyway, when the ISE put/call ratio goes over one it’s time to put some cash to work. You gotta buy ‘em when they ain’t.
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The Drawbacks of Unfettered DiscussionMob rule on China’s Internet: The keyboard as weapon, by Howard French
There is a growing phenomenon the Chinese call Internet hunting, in which morality lessons are administered by online throngs and where anonymous Web users come together to investigate others and mete out punishment for offenses real and imagined.
People teamed up to uncover a student’s address and telephone number, both of which were then posted online. Soon, people eager to denounce him showed up at his university and at his parents’ house, forcing him to drop out of school and barricade himself with his family in their home.
While Internet wars can crop up anywhere, these cases have set off alarms in China, where this sort of crowd behavior has led to violence in the past. Many here draw disturbing parallels to the Cultural Revolution, whose 40th anniversary was in May. During that episode of Chinese history, mobs of students taunted and beat their professors and mass denunciations and show trials became common for a decade.
(Technorati is blocked from China — you can’t get there from here.)
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Stock to Watch — Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)PAA moved to a new high on over three times average volume.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation of crude oil; gathering, marketing, terminalling, and storage of crude oil; and marketing and storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other natural gas related petroleum products in North America. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060531paaw.png
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Notable New Highs — May 31, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060531nnh.png
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May 31, 2006
Stock to Watch — Smith & Wesson (SWB)SWB moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume (on an otherwise very ugly day). I refuse to make a crack about a jump in handgun sales coinciding with a market top.
Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Smith & Wesson Corp., manufactures handguns, law enforcement products, and firearm safety/security products. It also provides shooter protection, knives, apparel, footwear, and other accessory lines. The company was founded by Horace Smith and Daniel B. Wesson in 1852. Smith & Wesson is based in Springfield, Massachusetts.
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Notable New Highs — May 30, 2006Back to a shortened Notable New Highs list. The New Lows are much more interesting: Homebuilders and Newspapers fill the list.
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May 30, 2006
The Derek Trucks Band — SonglinesI really enjoy Songlines, the new album from The Derek Trucks Band. (Anyone who names an album after a Bruce Chatwin book is OK with me.)
The roots and the fruits of The Derek Trucks Band are manifest in the breadth and scope of Songlines, which premieres several brand-new DTB compositions including the Hammond organ-driven “I’ll Find My Way,” the spiritually yearning “This Sky,” and the hypnotic instrumental “Mahjoun,” while acknowledging a wide range of influences — including American avant-garde jazz (Rahsaan Roland Kirk’s “Volunteered Slavery”), traditional acoustic slide blues (”Crow Jane”), 700-year-old Pakistani Qawwali music (Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan’s “Sahib Teri Bandi/Maki Madni”), and Jamaican reggae (Toots Hibbert’s “Sailing On”).
Here’s the lead track: Volunteered Slavery (2.5MB mp3) Let me know what you think.
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Stock to Watch — Liquidity Services (LQDT)LQDT moved to a new high on over six times average volume. This is a low float, thinly-traded, recently-issued stock, so keep that in mind.
Liquidity Services, Inc. provides solutions to market and sell surplus assets and wholesale goods. It operates an online auction marketplace for wholesale, surplus, and salvage assets. The company’s online auction marketplaces include www.liquidation.com, www.govliquidation.com, and www.uksurplus.com. It also operates a wholesale industry portal, www.goWholesale.com that connects advertisers with buyers seeking products for resale and related business services. The company was founded in 1999 and was formerly known as Liquidation.com, Inc. Liquidity Services is headquartered in Washington, D.C.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060526lqdtd.png
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Stock to Watch — PepsiCo (PEP)Money is clearly moving into the Consumer Staples area. Pepsi moved to a new high after going sideways for a good long while, so it’s one to watch.
PepsiCo, Inc. operates as a global snack and beverage company. It manufactures, markets, and sells a variety of salty, convenient, sweet, and grain-based snacks; carbonated and noncarbonated beverages; and foods worldwide. The company operates in four divisions: Frito-Lay North America, PepsiCo Beverages North America, PepsiCo International, and Quaker Foods North America. PepsiCo was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060525pepw.png
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Stock to Watch — Spansion (SPSN)Spansion moved to a new high above round-number $18 resistance. You can see how $16 acted as resistance and then support once broken above.
Spansion, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of flash memory products and systems in the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and the People’s Republic of China. The company was founded as Fujitsu AMD Semiconductor Limited in 1993 and later changed its name to Spansion, Inc. in 2004. Spansion is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060524spsnd.png
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Stock to Watch — Spansion (SPSN)Spansion moved to a new high above round-number $18 resistance. You can see how $16 acted as resistance and then support once broken above.
Spansion, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of flash memory products and systems in the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and the People’s Republic of China. The company was founded as Fujitsu AMD Semiconductor Limited in 1993 and later changed its name to Spansion, Inc. in 2004. Spansion is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060524spsnd.png
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Stock to Watch — Clean Harbors (CLHB)Clean Harbors moved to a new high on over twice average volume. You can see from the weekly chart below that price has moved out of the range it has been stuck in for the last half-year or so.
Clean Harbors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental and hazardous waste management services in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. As of December 31, 2005, Clean Harbors operated 48 hazardous waste management properties, including 5 incineration, 9 landfills, 7 wastewater treatment plants, and 20 transportation, storage, and disposal facilities, as well as 7 PCB management facilities. The company was founded by Alan S. McKim in 1980 and is based in Braintree, Massachusetts.
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Stock to Watch — Limited Brands (LTD)As commenter Andrew recently pointed out, a look at LTD’s long-term chart reveals that the stock is now trading at an all-time high. Price has jumped about 12% since moving above round-number $25 resistance last month.
Limited Brands, Inc. operates in specialty retail business in the United States. The company sells women’s intimate apparel, personal care and beauty products, and women’s and men’s apparel. It has three segments: Victoria’s Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Apparel. The company was founded by Leslie H. Wexner in 1963 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060522ltdm.png
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May 21, 2006
WAG: Gold at $450 in October 2006In the chart below, I’ve shifted last December’s peak in Natural Gas to correspond with Gold’s recent peak.
Assuming that Gold has topped and will crash in awe should look forward to price returning to $450 in the next five months.
(WAG is a highly technical term which stands for Wild-Ass Guess)
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060519nggcw.png
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Stock to Watch — Medical Properties Trust (MPW)MPW moved to a new high on exactly three times average volume.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company acquires and develops healthcare facilities, and leases the facilities to healthcare operating companies. It also makes mortgage loans to healthcare operators secured by their real estate assets. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Birmingham, Alabama.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060519mpww.png
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My favorite proxy for the Mainland property market is R&F Properties… when its trend reverses I’ll know the top is in.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/200605182777d.png
Related:
Stock to Watch — Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies (AERTA)AERTA moved to a new high on about four times average volume.
Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of composite building materials for exterior applications in building and remodeling homes, and for certain other industrial or commercial building purposes. Its product lines include exterior door and window components, exterior housing trims, and commercial and residential decking planks and accessories, such as balusters and handrails. The company serves door and window manufacturers, decking customers, and building product distributors. Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies was founded in 1998 and is based in Springdale, Arkansas.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060518aertaw.png
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Jiangxi Copper and the Importance of the New Highs ListJiangxi Copper is listed in both Shanghai and Hongkong and has put in a huge move this year. I wanted to point out with this chart (of its H-share… I follow H-shares closer than A-shares) that anyone watching the new 52-week high list started to get excited about the stock many weeks before it actually broke out. You have to keep an eagle eye on the new highs list!
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Aside: Goldman Sachs called Jiangxi Copper “ on March 2, 2006 (they also watch the new highs list closely).
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Stock to Watch — Brady (BRC)Brady moved to a new high above round-number $40 on over five times average volume. The rest of the market was a bloodbath. ;-)
Brady Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of identification solutions and specialty materials worldwide. The company was founded in 1914 by William H. Brady and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
If you’re wondering what “identification solutions” are, they’re better known as tags and markers.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060517brcw.png
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Stock to Watch — FactSet Research Systems (FDS)FactSet moved to a new high on over four times average volume. This stock has done very well over the last decade.
FactSet Research Systems, Inc. supplies economic and financial data and analytics to the investment community worldwide. The company’s applications provide users access to company analysis, multicompany comparisons, industry analysis, company screening, portfolio analysis, predictive risk measurements, alpha and backtesting, portfolio optimization, and real-time news and quotes. The company was founded in 1978 by Howard E. Wille and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
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Stock to Watch — Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)BKD moved to a new high above round-number $40 on nearly eight times average volume. Be aware that this is a very thinly traded, low-float stock.
Brookdale Senior Living, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates senior living facilities in the United States. Its senior living facilities offer residents a supportive home-like setting and assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs), as well as provide licensed skilled nursing services in certain facilities. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060515bkdd.png
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Zhejiang Expressway’s Sideways ShuffleI first wrote about my love for China’s toll road stocks Expressway was under HK$3 a share then and peaked in early 2004 above HK$6. Since then the stock price has gone sideways and most investors who pay attention to relative performance sold it long ago.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/200605120576w.png
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Trading with the Trend: US Dollar IndexThe daily trend on the US Dollar Index flipped down on April 5th and entered a steeper downtrend following the April 17th gap down.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060511dxd.png
Knowing that the daily trend is down, it pays to drop to a smaller time frame to find spots to get short. Every countertrend rally on the hourly chart sets up a trade when the hourly downtrend resumes.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060511dx60.png
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ETF to Watch — iShares Silver Trust (SLV)The new silver ETF began trading on April 28, and it’s already very actively traded quickly making my must-watch list.
The objective ofvalue of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust’s expenses and liabilities.
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Stock to Watch — Jones Soda (JSDA)Jones Soda moved to a new high (on a remarkably weak day for the broad market) on over four times average volume. A company that names an energy drink “WhoopAss” clearly understands how to market to kids.
Jones Soda Co. engages in the development, production, marketing, and distribution of beverages primarily in the United States and Canada. Its primary product lines include Jones Soda Co., a premium soda; Jones Naturals, a noncarbonated juice and tea drink; Jones Organics, a ready-to-drink organic tea; and Jones Energy and WhoopAss, citrus energy drinks. The company sells and distributes its products through a network of independent distributors and national retail accounts, as well as through licensing and distribution arrangements. Jones Soda Co. was founded by Peter M. van Stolk in 1986. The company is based in Seattle, Washington.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060511jsdad.png
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Stock to Watch — Birch Mountain Resources (BMD)Birch Mountain moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume. The stock has gone sideways for awhile so the breakout bears watching. (BMD is an Albertan Oil Sands play.)
Birch Mountain Resources, Ltd. engages in the exploration of industrial minerals in Canada. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060510bmdw.png
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Ernst & Young’s “Global Nonperforming Loan Report 2006”
Looking at the daily stock price charts for Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank, I’d say the Chinese banking system must be hunky-dorry.
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How to Lose Several Hundred Million DollarsFade this trend:
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China Settles Most Losing Copper Bets, Traders Say
China covered the losing bets by delivering copper into warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange and by settling in cash … Copper in South Korean warehouses monitored by the LME, the most probable destination for Chinese shipments, has increased 16-fold in the past eight months to more than 100,000 tons.
Related:
Copper, Phelps Dodge, and the Elusive Liu Qibing
The Squeeze Goes On (Sung to the Tune of The Beat Goes On)
Checking Up on the Liu Qibing Squeeze
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Stock to Watch — Washington Group (WGII)WGII moved to a new high on over 2.5 times average volume. The stock has gone sideways for a while so this is a decent looking breakout.
Washington Group International, Inc. offers integrated engineering, construction, and solutions worldwide. The company was founded in 1947. It was formerly known as Kasler Holding Company and changed its name to Washington Construction Group, Inc. in April 1996. Further, it changed its name to Morrison Knudsen Corporation in September 1996 and to Washington Group International, Inc. in 2000. Washington Group is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060509wgiiw.png
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Notable New Highs — May 9, 2006Gooooold, yesh yesh yesh yesh. I’ve pointed this out again and again.
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May 9, 2006
Game Theory Assumes Mistakes Will Not Be MadeThe poker machine, by Tim Harford
What von Neumann showed in his ground-breaking 1944 book, A Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (written with economist Oskar Morgenstern), was that you should bluff only with your worst hands, rather than with something half-decent.
The reasoning is simple enough. A modest hand may beat another modest hand, so it’s worth limping along to a low-stakes showdown. A bad hand will only win anything if the opponent folds, so bad hands should be played aggressively or not at all; indeed, when the best players are caught running a huge bluff they are often holding the most atrocious cards. Von Neumann’s model also highlights the other benefit of bluffing: it forces the opponent to match your bids frequently, and so wins more money with strong hands.
Chris Ferguson was exposed to both poker and game theory at an early age. His family were avid games players, and his father was a maths professor who taught game theory at UCLA.
“If you want to play poker to make money, you’re doing it for the wrong reasons,” says Ferguson. “You have to love the game, and you have to like to work hard.”
This holds true for trading as well: If you’re in it to make money, you’re doing it for the wrong reason. You have to love the game, and you have to like to work hard.
Play Poker with SparBot
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Let the Winds of a Civilized Internet BlowStudents put China’s spin on Web, by Howard French
Hu, one of 500 students at her university’s newly bolstered, student-run Internet monitoring group, is a cog in a different kind of machine, an ostensibly voluntary one that the Chinese government is mobilizing to help it manage the monumental task of censoring the Web.
While the larger Civilized Internet campaign all but requires companies to step forward and demonstrate their vigilance against what the government deems harmful information, the new censorship drive on college campuses shows greater subtlety and some might say greater deviousness, too.
It is here that the government is facing perhaps its most serious challenge: how to orient and maintain control of young people’s thoughts in a world of increasingly free and diverse information. And the answer relies heavily on stealth.
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Cat:[*]China[*]Internet/Media | Time: 9:13 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
Stock to Watch — SunOpta (STKL)SunOpta moved to a new high on over five times average volume. This small-cap stock has put in a huge move this year. Food, water, energy, and health care are all investment themes you should be thinking about.
SunOpta, Inc. primarily operates in the natural and organic food sectors of the food industry in the United States and Canada. Formerly known as Stake Technology, Ltd., the company was incorporated in 1973. It changed its name to SunOpta, Inc. in 2003 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.
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Financials Set to Outperform?The Financial SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank HOLDR (RKH) were both prominently on my new highs list. These two ETFs have been doing about as well as the S&P 500 since the bottom of the bear market (October 2002) — no better, no worse. I’m watching for a breakout in relative performance as money rotates into the financials.
(If you don’t understand what “relative performance” is, read this chat transcript.)
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Hijacking an Entire BrandNext step in pirating: Faking a company, by David Lague
Counterfeiters set up what amounted to a parallel NEC brand with links to a network of more than 50 electronics factories in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In the name of NEC, the pirates copied NEC products, and went as far as developing their own range of consumer electronic products - everything from home entertainment centers to MP3 players. They also coordinated manufacturing and distribution, collecting all the proceeds.
Counterfeiters carried NEC business cards, commissioned product research and development in the company’s name and signed production and supply orders. They also required factories to pay royalties for “licensed” products and issued official-looking warranty and service documents.
Some of the factories that were raided had erected bogus NEC signs and shipped their products packaged in authentic looking boxes and display cases. NEC said about 50 products were counterfeited, including home entertainment systems, MP3 players, batteries, microphones and DVD players.
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Cat:[*]China | Time: 9:01 am (utc+8) Comments (2)
ETF to Watch — Euro Currency Trust (FXE)I noticed the Euro Currency Trust on my new highs list. This ETF is very thinly traded so I don’t pay attention to it, but if you wanted exposure to the Euro this seems like a pretty slick way to get it.
Euro Currency Trust, a currency-based exchange-traded product, trades on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of the Trust are called “EuroCurrency SharesSM” and trade under the ticker symbol FXE. EuroCurrency Shares will track the price of the euro.
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Original Press Release: Rydex Investments Launches New Euro Currency Exchange Traded Product on New York Stock Exchange
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 8:31 am (utc+8) Comments (2)
Stock to Watch — Belden CDT (BDC)BDC moved to a new high on over five times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for while now so this breakout looks good.
Belden CDT, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of high-speed electronic cables, connectivity products, and related items worldwide. The company was founded by Joseph C. Belden in 1902 and is based in St. Louis, Missouri.
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ETF to Watch — MSCI Mexico (EWW)I’ve been keeping an eye on Mexico because it has been going sideways for a good many weeks. It finally moved up and out of the range on about twice average volume. Anyone who reviews my ETF Performance Tables knows that Mexico has been one of the best performing stock markets in the world the last couple of years.
The iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Mexican market, as measured by the MSCI Mexico Index.
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April 27, 2006
Stock to Watch — CSG Systems (CSGS)CSGS moved to a new high out of a nicely rounded “bowl-shaped” consolidation on over twice average volume.
CSG Systems International, Inc. provides outsourced billing, customer care, and print and mail solutions and services for the converged broadband and direct broadcast satellite markets in North America. CSG Systems was founded by Neal C. Hansen and Dr. George Haddix in 1994. The company is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.
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Notable New Highs — April 26, 2006Goooooold, yesh yesh yesh yesh. Including Vista Gold which the Chairman featured when it broke above $5.25… it’s over $9 now.
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April 26, 2006
Stock to Watch — Chubb (CB)Chubb moved to a new high on over twice average volume. You can see the stock has gone sideways for the last half year, so this breakout looks good.
The Chubb Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance to businesses and individuals worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Insurance, Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The company was founded in 1882 and is based in Warren, New Jersey.
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Notable New Highs — April 25, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200604/20060425nnh.png
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Popular Sentiment Growing Ever More ComplacentI was interested to read that “the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Survey showed bears outnumbering bulls by a 41% to 34% margin.” I think it’s unusual to have more bears than bulls (by any margin) in the AAII survey.
My own sentiment index, which is based on a media survey, is showing a very different picture.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 10:26 am (utc+8) Comments (13)
Stock to Watch — BankcorpSouth (BXS)BXS moved to a new high on over 3.5 times average volume. The stock has been going sideways for a good long time so this breakout looks good.
BancorpSouth, Inc. operates as the holding company for BancorpSouth Bank, which provides commercial banking and financial services in the United States. As of March 23, 2006, the bank operated 271 banking and mortgage locations in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. BancorpSouth was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Tupelo, Mississippi.
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April 25, 2006
Notable New Highs — April 24, 2006Lots of metals and practically every major European market.
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April 24, 2006
Stephen Roach’s “Newfound Optimism” and a Perfectly Picked TopI thought it would be fun to point out that Stephen Roach turned bullish on bonds precisely at the top.
The Optimism of a Pessimist, by Stephen Roach
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Measuring and Interpreting Economic Data in a Global EconomyBubble, schmubble - foil or trouble?, by Patrick Smith
Two economists, Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard University and Federico Sturzenegger of Harvard and the Universidad Torcuato di Tella in Buenos Aires, say that current account statistics mismeasure a country’s financial position because they are based on the geographic origin of goods - an outmoded concept.
In a globalized economy, exports from China, for example, may well add to the profits of a U.S. company like Motorola, which sends management know-how and technology to China - assets that are unaccounted for in the numbers. Borrowing the term dark matter from physics, the two economists call this the hidden wealth of U.S. companies with such assets abroad.
“When we apply our methodology,” the authors wrote in a much-circulated paper, “we find that the U.S. has run no current account deficits over the last two decades and that global imbalances are relatively small and very stable.”
Correct. And it makes you wonder why Stephen Roach still has a job.
Here’s an excerpt from a chat last summer:
CMaoxian: Stephen “the Ultimate Post-Bubble Payback” Roach!
Isasia1: funnily enough he recently capitulated on his us bond short position
Isasia1: ‘position’
CMaoxian: YES AND I’M TERRIFIED THAT HE SWITCHED
Isasia1: and went long
CMaoxian: i’ve been trying to date his switch so i can post a chart marking the absolute top in the bonds
Isasia1: lol
See: Stephen Roach’s “Newfound Optimism” and a Perfectly Picked Top
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 10:26 am (utc+8) Comments (2)
Gasoline Price Approaching Inflation-Adjusted Record HighThe national average for self-serve regular unleaded gas was $2.91 a gallon on April 21, only 10 cents shy of the all-time high of $3.01 reached last September, in the aftermath of Gulf of Mexico storms that disrupted oil and gasoline production. As high as prices may seem, the average price last week is still 15 cents below the record inflation-adjusted high of $3.06 reached in March 1981.
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April 23, 2006
ETF Performance Table (Int’l) — Week Ending April 21, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200604/20060421etff.png
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ETF Performance Table — Week Ending April 21, 2006The Biotech HOLDR reversed after having been in an uptrend since April 2005.
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Buying Great Businesses at Reasonable PricesWeitz Funds March 31, 2005 Letters to Shareholders
Wally explains why he’s investing in “old media,” “faded growth stocks,” and financial services companies.
New investment ideas are, almost by definition, unpopular at the time we find them.
Our willingness, even eagerness, to average down when we believe in an investment is completely counter-intuitive to many investors. They are puzzled when we say, “Good news, our stocks are down.” Don’t get me wrong — we are after profits — but we really believe that buying good businesses when their stocks are depressed is the way to maximize profits in the long run. As long as the down-ticks are temporary, the lower the stocks go, the better. We will be out of step at times, and the past year has been one of those times, but we do not think we could have out-performed the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 over the past 23+ years if we had chased short-term performance.
We continue to believe that excessive credit creation and speculation in both real estate and securities markets will cause some anxious moments, at best, and possibly some serious financial distress for the stock market over the next few years. We are not cheering for trouble, but we think it is important to be prepared, just in case. So, we have continued to focus our portfolios on companies with strong balance sheets and managements that are flexible enough to deal with both favorable and hostile business environments.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 12:20 pm (utc+8) Comments (4)
April 22, 2006
Stock to Watch — Labor Ready (LRW)Labor Ready moved to a new high on nearly four times average volume, and it’s approaching its all-time high as well.
Labor Ready, Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiaries provide temporary employees for lifting, hauling, cleaning, assembling, digging, painting, and other types of manual or unskilled work. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 8:24 am (utc+8) Comments (4)
Notable New Highs — April 21, 2006Energies, energies, energies.
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Stock to Watch — Arkansas Best (ABFS)Arkansas Best moved to a new high on over 1.5 times average volume. Round-number $45 was “resistance” from a while back, so now that it has been taken out the stock is worth watching.
Arkansas Best Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in motor carrier transportation and intermodal transportation operations. Arkansas Best Corporation was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.
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Notable New Highs — June 23, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060623nnh.png
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June 23, 2006
Overeducated and UnderemployedRioting in China over label on college diplomas, by Joseph Kahn
Once a magic ticket into the government or business elite, college has become an expensive gamble for millions of cash-short families who find that even the most prestigious degrees cannot guarantee success in a market economy.
Is he writing about China or America?
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Eight New ProShares FundsProShares Launches Eight Innovative ETFs to Trade on the American Stock Exchange (Press Release)
Eight new ProShares ETFs began trading this past Wednesday:
[*]Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM)[*]Ultra MidCap400 ProShares (MVV)[*]Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)[*]Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO)[*]Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG)[*]Short MidCap400 ProShares (MYY)[*]Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ)[*]Short S&P500 ProShares (SH)Ultra ProShares are the only ETFs designed to double the daily performance of their underlying indexes (after fees and expenses). Use them to magnify the impact of your investment dollar.
Short ProShares are the only ETFs designed to go up when their underlying indexes go down (and vice versa). Use them to seek profit in a market downturn or hedge an investment.
They get major points for using the ticker symbol “DOG” for their Short Dow30 fund. None of these ETFs is actively traded yet, but I’ll keep an eye on them to see if they do.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 8:52 am (utc+8) Comments (7)
Stock to Watch — Celgene (CELG)CELG moved to a new high on nearly twice average volume. Since this stock bottomed under $3 in the summer of 2002, it has been a huge outperformer.
Celgene Corporation engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory-related diseases in the United States. Celgene Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Summit, New Jersey.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 7:44 am (utc+8) Comments (1)
Notable New Highs — June 22, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060622nnh.png
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June 22, 2006
Straying from BenchmarksThe mad genius of mutual funds, by Jon Birger
Ken Heebner’s an interesting guy (a rarity among mutual fund managers):
My big mistake was that I decided to try to keep clients happy by staying with the trend. I bought some of the stocks like Cisco. I thought the stocks were overvalued, but I bought them anyway to try to have better performance. What happened is that I would always be a nervous holder. The stocks would go down, and I’d sell them at a loss because I lacked conviction. I was better off never owning them at all.
And he understands the brave new world:
It’s my belief that for the first time the U.S. is relatively unimportant in the global demand picture. Indigenous demand has grown in countries all around the world. So if we slow down it will not have a material impact on the rest of the world’s growth rate.
– via Trader’s Narrative –
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Stock to Watch — The Knot (KNOT)KNOT moved to a new high on nearly four times average volume. This dot com went public on December 2, 1999 and traded as high as $21 that day. Yesterday it hit $20.65 so folks who paid the top tick over six long years ago are approaching breakeven. Those who paid $0.25 a share during the depths of the bear have made a fortune.
The company offers online and offline services to the wedding market in the United States. Its online services include providing ideas, up-to-date information, and resources to assist in the process of planning a wedding through its Web site www.theknot.com. The Knot was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in New York.
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Stock to Watch — OMI Corp. (OMM)OMI moved to a new high on exactly twice average volume. You can see from the weekly chart that the stock has gone nowhere for a year and a half, so a breakout here is worth watching.
OMI Corporation operates as a seaborne transporter of crude oil and refined petroleum products in the international shipping markets. As of December 31, 2005, OMI’s fleet comprised 33 product carriers and 13 Suezmax tankers. The company offers its services to commercial and government-owned oil companies, and oil trading companies. OMI was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
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Notable New Highs — June 20, 2006Good thing the Chairman pointed out Enersys when it broke out.
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Stock to Watch — Memry (MRY)Memry moved to a new high on over six times average volume — but keep in mind that this stock is very thinly traded. There’s a massive ascending triangle on the chart stretching back to 2002, so this breakout bears watching.
Memry Corporation engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of products and components primarily for the medical device industry. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Bethel, Connecticut.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 9:09 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
Notable New Highs — June 16, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060616nnh.png
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June 16, 2006
Hammer Time and Heavy VolumeA “hammer” formed in just about every major stock index today, almost all on unusual volume. The QQQQ traded 280,562,157 shares which is over 2.5 times average volume. The bulls have drawn a line in the sand.
To quote the great Walter Sobchak:
I’m talking about drawing a line in the sand, Dude. Across this line you do not pass.
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June 8, 2006
Oil Services Top is Significant and Has Broad ImplicationsAmong the 249 ETFs I follow (well, the computer follows), the Oil Services HOLDR (OIH) was down the most. The trade that I suggested recently is very close to failing, which is a good thing because it makes me sure the highs hit in April (around $160) will mark a significant top, and that my Sentiment Survey, which reveals a remarkably complacent mood, has value. As I said in the comments section at the time:
Eyal: The “tip” will be most valuable if the trade fails, just like the failed trade in TOL which marked the top not just of Toll Brothers but the whole Homebuilders group.
So the failed trade in the OIH may mark the top not just of the Oil Services sector but the broad market as well. I think we’ve seen the highs for 2006, folks. (Famous last words?)
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 8:08 am (utc+8) Comments (11)
Notable New Highs — June 7, 2006The Notable New Highs list is available at Google Spreadsheets now, so if you’d like to mess with it just leave a comment and I’ll “invite” you (Gmail account holders only) to view it.
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Cat:[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 7:36 am (utc+8) Comments (23)
Indeed. And why would anyone want to work at this dying behemoth:
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Cat:[*]Internet/Media[*]Trading and Investing | Time: 9:18 am (utc+8) Comments (6)
Stock to Watch — Live Nation (LYV)Like Mastercard, this is another recently issued stock that has held up very well in a deadly market.
Live Nation is a leading live event, venue and digital distribution company focused on creating superior experiences for artists, performers, corporations and fans. Live Nation owns, operates and/or has booking rights for 153 venues worldwide and produced more than 29,500 events in 2005. Live Nation is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
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Payment solutions.” Gag! Lord, please spare me from more “solutions.”http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060605ma30.png
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June 2, 2006
Stock to Watch — TXU (TXU)TXU moved to a new high after going sideways for a while, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
TXU Corp. operates as a holding company that manages a portfolio of competitive and regulated energy businesses in Texas. As of December 31, 2005, TXU provided electricity and related services to 2.3 million retail electricity customers in Texas, and the company owned or leased approximately 18,300 megawatts of generation, including 2,300 megawatts of nuclear and 5,837 megawatts of lignite/coal-fired generation capacity. TXU Corp. was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
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Notable New Highs — June 1, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200606/20060601nnh.png
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June 1, 2006
Five Big TrendsTurn short-term fear into long-term profit, by Jim Jubak
I never read Jim Jubak, but I was over at MSN for some reason and ran across this article that I thought was pretty good. These are the five trends that form the backbone his long-term investing strategy:
[*]The developing world is growing richer[*]Demand for commodities will continue to exceed supply[*]We’ve seen the low in the inflation cycle[*]The world is getting older fast[*]The dollar will continue to slideOne trend he doesn’t mention directly that’s worth knowing about is the number of rich Chinese traveling abroad. This is huge. In the past week I’ve had lunch with three different people (all young, all nouveau riche professionals) who surprised me by saying they went abroad for the May Day holiday — to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Related: The Chinese Impact on World Tourism
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Bulls Rejoice: The Little Guy is Piling into PutsThe ISE Sentiment Index finally shows more puts being bought than calls. The last time the number of puts purchased exceeded the number of calls was back on October 1, 2004. You’ll recall that there was quite a bit of nervousness leading up to the US Presidential election. (The American public in its infinite wisdom reelected Zhlubya — an act of mass stupidity which still appalls and disgusts me, but I digress.)
Anyway, when the ISE put/call ratio goes over one it’s time to put some cash to work. You gotta buy ‘em when they ain’t.
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The Drawbacks of Unfettered DiscussionMob rule on China’s Internet: The keyboard as weapon, by Howard French
There is a growing phenomenon the Chinese call Internet hunting, in which morality lessons are administered by online throngs and where anonymous Web users come together to investigate others and mete out punishment for offenses real and imagined.
People teamed up to uncover a student’s address and telephone number, both of which were then posted online. Soon, people eager to denounce him showed up at his university and at his parents’ house, forcing him to drop out of school and barricade himself with his family in their home.
While Internet wars can crop up anywhere, these cases have set off alarms in China, where this sort of crowd behavior has led to violence in the past. Many here draw disturbing parallels to the Cultural Revolution, whose 40th anniversary was in May. During that episode of Chinese history, mobs of students taunted and beat their professors and mass denunciations and show trials became common for a decade.
(Technorati is blocked from China — you can’t get there from here.)
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Cat:[*]Personal[*]China[*]Internet/Media | Time: 8:06 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
Stock to Watch — Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)PAA moved to a new high on over three times average volume.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation of crude oil; gathering, marketing, terminalling, and storage of crude oil; and marketing and storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and other natural gas related petroleum products in North America. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
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Notable New Highs — May 31, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060531nnh.png
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May 31, 2006
Stock to Watch — Smith & Wesson (SWB)SWB moved to a new high on nearly three times average volume (on an otherwise very ugly day). I refuse to make a crack about a jump in handgun sales coinciding with a market top.
Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Smith & Wesson Corp., manufactures handguns, law enforcement products, and firearm safety/security products. It also provides shooter protection, knives, apparel, footwear, and other accessory lines. The company was founded by Horace Smith and Daniel B. Wesson in 1852. Smith & Wesson is based in Springfield, Massachusetts.
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Notable New Highs — May 30, 2006Back to a shortened Notable New Highs list. The New Lows are much more interesting: Homebuilders and Newspapers fill the list.
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May 30, 2006
The Derek Trucks Band — SonglinesI really enjoy Songlines, the new album from The Derek Trucks Band. (Anyone who names an album after a Bruce Chatwin book is OK with me.)
The roots and the fruits of The Derek Trucks Band are manifest in the breadth and scope of Songlines, which premieres several brand-new DTB compositions including the Hammond organ-driven “I’ll Find My Way,” the spiritually yearning “This Sky,” and the hypnotic instrumental “Mahjoun,” while acknowledging a wide range of influences — including American avant-garde jazz (Rahsaan Roland Kirk’s “Volunteered Slavery”), traditional acoustic slide blues (”Crow Jane”), 700-year-old Pakistani Qawwali music (Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan’s “Sahib Teri Bandi/Maki Madni”), and Jamaican reggae (Toots Hibbert’s “Sailing On”).
Here’s the lead track: Volunteered Slavery (2.5MB mp3) Let me know what you think.
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Stock to Watch — Liquidity Services (LQDT)LQDT moved to a new high on over six times average volume. This is a low float, thinly-traded, recently-issued stock, so keep that in mind.
Liquidity Services, Inc. provides solutions to market and sell surplus assets and wholesale goods. It operates an online auction marketplace for wholesale, surplus, and salvage assets. The company’s online auction marketplaces include www.liquidation.com, www.govliquidation.com, and www.uksurplus.com. It also operates a wholesale industry portal, www.goWholesale.com that connects advertisers with buyers seeking products for resale and related business services. The company was founded in 1999 and was formerly known as Liquidation.com, Inc. Liquidity Services is headquartered in Washington, D.C.
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060526lqdtd.png
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Notable New Highs — May 26, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060526nnh.png
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May 26, 2006
A Bull Run in the DarkJames Areddy wrote a good article in today’s WSJ called “China’s Stock Rally Stirs
Investor Appetite for Data.”
Traditionally wary of independent prognosticators, the ruling Communist Party has discouraged stock-market predictions since trading began in China 16 years ago. As a result, brokerage analysts and mutual-fund managers peddle bland advice unlikely to cause ripples — or damage their reputations.
Interpreting market events is tough for China’s investors. Personal finance columns in the tightly controlled media are often unsigned views on single stocks, while on-the-air commentators duck the specifics on the big trends by referring instead to historic charts, public opinion polls and financial news from overseas.
“We don’t encourage predictions,” says Dai Biao, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Fuzzy warnings in the country’s Securities Law outline fines for anyone “fabricating and disseminating false information that affects securities trading.”
Regulators are set to allow investors to “day trade” and use borrowed money to buy stocks starting July 1.
Wall Street experts aren’t much use in China because few have licenses to dispense retail investment advice.
Increasingly seduced by this year’s gains, individual Chinese are once again crowding into smoky brokerage halls like the Shanghai Securities outlet. With plastic chairs set in front of massive electronic boards that flash red for rising stocks and green for falling ones, the brokerages are set up like off-track-betting parlors for horse races and don’t offer clients much research. Instead, investors, who applied for 200,000 new accounts in April, stand two and three deep at terminals that allow them to chart stock movement, swap advice and input trades themselves.
For individuals tempted to jump in now, people like 67-year-old Tao Liangui seem like the best diviners of trends. Mr. Tao sits most trading sessions near the busy new-client desk at an outlet of Shanghai Securities Ltd., and — for no fee — shows novice investors how to read stock charts and make smart picks.
Amateur analysts like Mr. Tao can be found in many such brokerage halls around China, which number in the thousands. His latest trading strategy isn’t scientific. Mr. Tao puts faith in a glossy calendar torn from an investment magazine last year that he keeps folded in his waist-belt. Certain dates are marked as “pivot points” for China’s markets, though the publisher left it up to investors to guess whether the expected market move is up or down. In the current trend, Mr. Tao figures the next one is a likely bullish move. “There will be a good month followed by three falling months,” he says.
His guess is as good as the next guy’s!
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Andy Xie, Master of RedundanciesIt’s painful to read anything by Morgan Stanley’s man in Hong Kong, Andy Xie, because his writing is so repetitive. He recently wrote a post called Fixing the Property Market, which clocked in at around 1,700 words. The amazing thing is he actually wrote between 600 and 800 words and repeated himself two to three times.
“When the central government expresses serious alarm, local governments try to comply with the spirit and letter of the central government instructions.”
Later:
“Local governments tend to comply with the letter and spirit of central government instructions when the central government focuses on an issue.”
Another:
One possibility would be to set capital gains tax at, say, 80% for sales within the first year of purchase and reduce this by ten percentage points for every extra year of ownership.
Later:
I think China would benefit from the introduction of an 80% capital gains tax for property sales within the first year of ownership, with decreases of ten percentage points for every extra year of ownership until the rate reaches zero.
You can see he doesn’t just repeat himself, he repeats idiotic ideas like an 80% capital gains tax.
He also writes sentences like this one:
“Considering the political gravity attached to the issue, policy development in the coming days should be sufficient to cool the housing market for the time being, in my view.”
Ack! Morgan Stanley must have full-time editors who can help.
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Can You Commit to Those Parameters?From The Economist Style Guide:
Since clichés usually appeal to people who do not have the energy to pick their own words, they are often found in the wooden prose of bureaucrats, academics, and businessmen.
“At this moment in time, with all due respect, let me take this window of opportunity to share with you a few clichés that some people may find particularly irritating. Basically, I would have to begin by kick-starting the economy, on a level playing-field, of course, and then, going forward, I would want to give 110% to the creation of a global footprint before cherry-picking the co-workers to empower the underprivileged, motivate the on-train team and craft an exciting public space, not forgetting that, if the infrastructure is not to find itself between a rock and a hard place, at the end of the day, we shall have to get networking and engage in some blue-sky thinking to push the envelope way beyond even our usual out-of-the-box metrics.”
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Stock to Watch — PepsiCo (PEP)Money is clearly moving into the Consumer Staples area. Pepsi moved to a new high after going sideways for a good long while, so it’s one to watch.
PepsiCo, Inc. operates as a global snack and beverage company. It manufactures, markets, and sells a variety of salty, convenient, sweet, and grain-based snacks; carbonated and noncarbonated beverages; and foods worldwide. The company operates in four divisions: Frito-Lay North America, PepsiCo Beverages North America, PepsiCo International, and Quaker Foods North America. PepsiCo was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
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Stock to Watch — Spansion (SPSN)Spansion moved to a new high above round-number $18 resistance. You can see how $16 acted as resistance and then support once broken above.
Spansion, Inc. engages in the design, development, and manufacture of flash memory products and systems in the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and the People’s Republic of China. The company was founded as Fujitsu AMD Semiconductor Limited in 1993 and later changed its name to Spansion, Inc. in 2004. Spansion is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
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Notable New Highs — May 24, 2006Only five Notables today….
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May 24, 2006
Larry Williams Arrested on Tax Evasion ChargesLarry Williams Arrested
Larry Williams was granted bail Tuesday by a Sydney court after being arrested on international tax evasion.
Australian Federal Police, responding to a request from U.S. authorities, arrested the prominent stock market trader Saturday after he flew into Sydney to begin a monthlong speaking tour in Australia and New Zealand.
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service has been seeking the 64-year-old Virgin Islands resident over allegations that he evaded $1.5 million in taxes on royalties from his books on the stock market and proceeds from international seminars between 1990 and 2001.
Williams was freed on $753,000 bail, ordered to surrender his passport and report to police three times per day.
Note that he allegedly evaded taxes on royalties from his books on the stock market and proceeds from international seminars, not trading income. Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? ;-)
- Thanks for the link, Tom -
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Stock to Watch — Clean Harbors (CLHB)Clean Harbors moved to a new high on over twice average volume. You can see from the weekly chart below that price has moved out of the range it has been stuck in for the last half-year or so.
Clean Harbors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental and hazardous waste management services in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. As of December 31, 2005, Clean Harbors operated 48 hazardous waste management properties, including 5 incineration, 9 landfills, 7 wastewater treatment plants, and 20 transportation, storage, and disposal facilities, as well as 7 PCB management facilities. The company was founded by Alan S. McKim in 1980 and is based in Braintree, Massachusetts.
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Stock to Watch — Limited Brands (LTD)As commenter Andrewat LTD’s long-term chart reveals that the stock is now trading at an all-time high. Price has jumped about 12% since moving above round-number $25 resistance last month.
Limited Brands, Inc. operates in specialty retail business in the United States. The company sells women’s intimate apparel, personal care and beauty products, and women’s and men’s apparel. It has three segments: Victoria’s Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Apparel. The company was founded by Leslie H. Wexner in 1963 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
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May 21, 2006
WAG: Gold at $450 in October 2006In the chart below, I’ve shifted last December’s peak in Natural Gas to correspond with Gold’s recent peak.
Assuming that Gold has topped and will crash in athen we should look forward to price returning to $450 in the next five months.
(WAG is a highly technical term which stands for Wild-Ass Guess)
http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060519nggcw.png
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Stock to Watch — Medical Properties Trust (MPW)MPW moved to a new high on exactly three times average volume.
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company acquires and develops healthcare facilities, and leases the facilities to healthcare operating companies. It also makes mortgage loans to healthcare operators secured by their real estate assets. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Birmingham, Alabama.
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Notable New Highs — May 19, 2006The depth of the damage in the market over the last two weeks is represented by the shortened Notable New Highs list.
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May 19, 2006
“Correcting” Property Market “Distortions”Property Stocks Fall on Price Curbs Plan, by Jianguo Jiang
The government will restrict land for expensive housing and offer easier credit for low-cost homes, aiming to “correct'’ distortions in the property market, state-run China Central Television reported last night. The government must do more to cool property prices and make it easier for people to afford low- to moderate-cost housing, CCTV reported. The government will use tax measures and will boost supervision to curb the amount of land used to develop luxury homes, according to the report.
China has restricted lending for property since April 2003 out of concern that prices and investment were rising too fast, raising the risk of a collapse that could drive up bad loans at banks and derail economic growth.
The central bank in March 2005 raised the down-payment ratio for home buyers in some areas and increased the minimum mortgage rate. The central government in June ordered cities to start imposing a 5 percent tax on the value of home sales.
The government may restrict overseas investment in real estate to help cool prices, analysts said. Overseas investors bought at least $500 million of completed income-producing property in China in the first quarter, compared with $1.2 billion in all of 2005, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.
My favorite proxy for the Mainland property market is R&F Properties… when its trend reverses I’ll know the top is in.
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Related:
Beijing Property — Haves and Have-Nots
Guangzhou R&F Properties, Ltd.
Andrew Browne in today’s WSJ, “China Seeks to Damp Real-Estate Prices With Taxes on Profits”
“The cabinet urged local governments to offer more price information. In the absence of transaction data, Chinese buyers often are at the mercy of developers with an interest in inflating prices.”
Before we bought our place I asked for all the data on sales from the past year for our development and was met with a wall of laughter everywhere I turned (including the local government).
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Male-Driven SpacesA Hideout of His Own, by Finn-Olaf Jones
Men are increasingly creating small private domains in and around their houses — in sheds, basements, attics and closets — as a way of retreating from everyday life.
A century ago, instead of retreating into a shed alone, a man may have belonged to some kind of fraternal order, as one in three American men did; 50 years ago he might have spent time socializing with other men at a barbershop, of which there were six times as many as there are today. It is the loss of these kinds of communal retreats that has left many men to their own devices when it comes to decompressing.
“Women can’t fully understand why men need to be alone and separate.”
Having a shed to escape to is one of the secrets of a happy marriage, ranking in importance right behind your wife having “low expectations.”
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Stock to Watch — Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies (AERTA)AERTA moved to a new high on about four times average volume.
Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of composite building materials for exterior applications in building and remodeling homes, and for certain other industrial or commercial building purposes. Its product lines include exterior door and window components, exterior housing trims, and commercial and residential decking planks and accessories, such as balusters and handrails. The company serves door and window manufacturers, decking customers, and building product distributors. Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies was founded in 1998 and is based in Springdale, Arkansas.
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Notable New Highs — May 18, 2006http://www.maoxian.com/images/200605/20060518nnh.png
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May 18, 2006
More from MungerPat Dorsey captures some great quotes from Charlie Munger, most notably this one:
“The harder you work on something, the more confidence you have in it. But you might be working on something you aren’t good at.”
I’ve got to remember to tell this to all the people who write to me about their desire to become full-time traders (or investors for that matter).
Related:
The Wisdom of Charlie Munger
Overcoming One’s Own Psychological Weaknesses
Sheep Guts
The Emptiness of Buying and Selling Paper
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Jiangxi Copper and the Importance of the New Highs ListJiangxi Copper is listed in both Shanghai and Hongkong and has put in a huge move this year. I wanted to point out with this chart (of its H-share… I follow H-shares closer than A-shares) that anyone watching the new 52-week high list started to get excited about the stock many weeks before it actually broke out. You have to keep an eagle eye on the new highs list!
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Aside: Goldman Sachs called Jiangxi Copper “undervalued” on March 2, 2006 (they also watch the new highs list closely).
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