You are most welcome, I hope we all make green pips constantly http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
here's what I have on my 1H chart, a break of the upper TL and we will be heading to my Targets, check sig http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4773/gjtj2.gif
My current chart with fibs and trendlines..
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/457/gjwh2.gif
4H chart Trendline is still supporting as you can see..
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/4175/gjfa8.gif
Hi Karmostaji, first nice trade on the GPP/JPY, I wanted to swing trade the same peak but I already had some other trades open so I had to pass this one. I've observed the 4H and Daily charts for you and price is doing fine on both. I uploaded the charts. Your only fear should be if price forms a mini down trend which hits your stoploss....
Other than that, the overall trend here is up, price reached down to a low peak and has bounced back up..
7ayak allah!
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=45737&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189898910http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=45738&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189898910
Question Karmostaji,
I follow the other thread quite closely and have noticed that you have a fibo line at 232.61 (61.8). I have been able to learn how to draw the fibo lines and for some reason I do not have a line there. How did you determine where to draw your line from. I thought I had it figured out. Here is what my chart looks like. Any guidance you can give me would be great.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=45785&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189899016
yesterday my sell limit missed as it penetrate the line. but this morning cannot affort to not going long.. i'm aware to those resistance line i drawn...
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=46146&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189899459
Daily chart Here's the daily chart with the fibs, the first try to break the 50% level failed, we might be going for another try and if it successfully breaks, we will see 238.80 which is my 2nd TP.
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/1627/gjlk5.gif
4H chart based on the 4H, we retraced 50% of the bull run and then started heading back up, seems like we're testing the 23.6% again.. I'm expecting price to rise to 235.50
http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/8873/gjrk9.gif
Looking at my charts, we will have a big fall next week..
Weekly chart:
I don't remember what we call this last candle but it is a sign of a big fall
http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/9029/gjvr1.gif
Daily chart:
On the daily chart, we have completed 50% retracement as you can see
http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2357/gjog0.gif
4H chart:
We are in a nice downtrend channel, and if we take the fib from 244 to the low of 219, we have completed 61.8% retracement, so to me we should be heading downwards from here..
http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/8899/gjdh6.gif
Weekly analysis:
Weekly chart:
As I had predicted that last week would be a bear week and it indeed turned out to be so, now looking at the weekly fibonacci levels, GJ is looking to retest the 50%, 61.8% and even touching 76.4% which is 212.45 area, the weekly chart is still bullish unless we get a weekly bar closing below the lower TL, then things will change but in my prediction we will touch the 76.4% in the coming weeks
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/1134/gjmw1.gif
Daily chart:
As we have seen in the past weeks, GJ retraced 50% of the move down and it has started to resume it's bearish trend now. The last day of the week, the candle closed well below the 38.2% fibonacci level, the next level is the 23.6% which is also close to the weekly 50%
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/526/gjst9.gif
4H chart:
Looking at the Green fibs, we completed 61.8% retracement and price has started to resume it's bearish trend. I also added the orange fibs, all these fibonacci are good levels to keep an eye on, the beast will take a rest at some of these levels like it did at the 76.4% (orange)
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9167/gjwk0.gif
Weekly Analysis This past week was excellent, hopefully next week will be better and with bigger move since the Fed is going to have a little party with us lol http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
Ok, let's get to analyzing..
After learning about the great Moving Averages (50ema, 100sma, 200ema) from our MA master 'Hakuna Matata', I have drawn my weekly fibonacci levels differently this week (weekly chart) and I will explain to you why.
As we know, Moving Averages provide Support/Resistance levels, so now have a look at the chart and see how nicely price reacted (I'm amazed!). Now let's add some Fibo's to our cocktail, the 200ema acted as a support (it barely touched it, but I'll take it as support) on 17/07/05 , now if you draw a Fibonacci retracement from this low to the high of 251.07
http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/1646/gjij9.gif
Now look at that 100sma and 50% level, they were both close to each other and price bounced off that area perfectly. I said last week 212 is next on the cards for GJ but I'll change it to 212-214, since our 61.8% fibo is at 215 and 200ema is just below it, 212-214 should be achieavable in the coming weeks/months.
Remember now, we have lots of supports to break before getting there.. I don't trade based on weekly charts, I just have them in order to have an idea of where price might go next.
Daily chart:
That descending TL from the top has been acting as a support lately, but I believe it will be broken and next support area for GJ based on the daily chart is the 23.6% fibo level.
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/250/gjna5.gif
4H chart:
The price has been bouncing off the green 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% fibo levels, once price breaks the 38.2% + TL (close to my 2nd TP), 23.6% is next where we also have a weekly TL waiting for us there.
http://img460.imageshack.us/img460/1905/gjgw5.gif
For the past 2 weeks or so, price has been bouncing off the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% fib levels on the 4h chart, we also have a triangle, once it breaksout.. we will have a clear direction. 200ema (red line) has been a good resistance.
http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/7936/gjqc4.gif
GJ has broken to the upside as we know but we have a very strong resistance at 235.20-45, if this resistance is broken then 238 is definitely a target. A 50% retracement is possible first to 233.70 area where we also have 50ema.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=52304&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1191166256
Weekly analysis Daily chart is very bullish, so is the 4H, price completed it's daily 61.8% retracement from it's last fall to 219 area. Where will price go next? It could retrace back to the daily 50% fibo to see if it supports or not, or it could still go higher, the trendline is still supporting this upward trend, I wouldn't short this pair unless the TL gets broken and retracement for this last upward movement starts. I've also drawn a new fibo for this last daily swing (assuming this is the top, otherwise this fibo is invalid), you can see the 38.2% fibo (green) is very to close to the daily 50%, so it could retrace to that area and then bounce back up or it could retrace to it's favorite fibo level which is the 50%. This week should be interesting and lots of pips for us to grab. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/6210/4hhr5.gif
http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/8792/1hjg2.gif
It's been a while since I talked about my lovely fibs..
From the last move up on 4h chart, you can see the price retraced 50% and went back up to 23.6% and now it's back close to 50% again. I still believe there is one more push up left to 240.50 area before the major reversal most of us are waiting for.
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/2269/1hbe8.gif
It seems the majority are having the bear fever for this week and they could be correct, but I don't have that fever yet. On the daily chart, after the price reached the 61.8% which we have been waiting for, it was rejected and price has come back down to the 50% (235.20). If we draw a new fibo (green) from the last bull-run from the breakout we had 2 weeks ago, the 50% fibo is right on the daily one and price is current around there, but it could still dip to 61.8% (233.90) area before bouncing back up and most probably going to 243.50 area. Remember, if we get a sell-off or panic selling then everything I just said is useless, so just be careful and don't jump the gun, have patience and wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger, good luck.
http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/7804/gjsi4.gif
I hope everyone had a good weekend, and ready to grab more pips from the beast http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Daily chart:
Here's a simple looking daily chart with 2 trendlines and a fibo retracement, you can see we have been bouncing off those fibo levels and trendlines, price is close to the 50% level, which way are we going next? hmm It can go either way and a breakout should happen soon (this week maybe), so keep your eyes on the chart and don't miss out on the fun http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/big_grin.gif
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/2935/gjeb3.gif
4H chart:
Ok, let's look at the recent fall we had from 240 area to the 230 area, the price has retraced 50% and then back down to 23.6%, now we're back up close to 50%, what's next? The chart says it all, a breakout should be coming up soon this week.
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/4307/gjce0.gif
1H chart:
Breakout soon..
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/906/gjqc5.gif
GJ should be heading towards the bottom of this uptrend channel (235 area), and then possible resuming uptrend towards 238 area.. but we'll have to see if the lower trendline supports or not. I'm short from 236.60 with SL at +1 already.
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/9889/gjax8.gif
4H chart Price seems to be heading to the support area of 223.70 but before it gets there we could see some kind of small retracement first. If that support gets broken, then we should be seeing 222. I expect good support in the 222-223 area because we have a monthly trendline there also.
http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/4774/gjwh3.gif