I'm back http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
Let's get down to analysis, here's a daily GJ chart, after the big fall to 192.40, we can see price has retraced all the way back up to 78.6% where we also had the daily 50ema and the upper TL of the Daily downtrend channel, 205 was also a strong S/R on my chart. Now looking at the daily QQE, this past friday we got the 1st candle closed below the Daily Gann hilo, it indicates to me that there is more downside coming soon, even a new low is possible.
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/4595/gjgz7.gif
Couple of Inside Bars (candles) on the Weekly chart. The Weekly is in an obvious downtrend, so a break of the bottom of the Inside Bars looks to be a higher probability trade.
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=102711&stc=1&d=1208138280
How they (Weekly IBs) look on the Daily chart.
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=102713&stc=1&d=1208138446
4 hour chart with Weekly IBs.
Yes, I did take that easy trade long at 201.73.
Price Action + Patience + High Time Frames = http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/moneyeyes.gif
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=102716&stc=1&d=1208139312
Price drops down and kisses last week's low (Weekly IB bottom).
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=102781&stc=1&d=1208165734
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/1764/gjng0.gif
Longs still seem in play, price is trading above daily 50ema, new monthly momentum was bullish, so we might see 211-213 at last and if that breaks then 216 which is the 50% fib on my weekly chart and a weekly TL http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/2885/gjhj8.gif
Karmo is back http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/cool.gif
Time for some simple and effective analysis
We all know that price has been in a downward channel since late 2007 and that channel was broken a month ago but on the daily chart price never came back and re-tested it. We also had a bear flag (small bullish channel) formed and this past week it was broken to the downside (see the chart). Price has also closed below the lower BB (bollinger band) , all of these indicate strong bearish movement.
Now my TP for shorts is the 78.6 or 88.6 fibo of the big move up we had from 192.xx to 209 , we also have a confluence of that downward channel that was broken a month ago and never re-tested, so that area should act as support.
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/3052/gjjy2.gif
WARNING! the beast may do anything so be careful
At the beginning of the week we might have a small retracement up towards the 38.2 or the famous 50 before it resumes downwards.
http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/2746/gjuj9.gif
Now let's go to the Daily QQE and the gann, price has closed below the gann and the QQE has crossed down, I'd assume we will have a daily 5sma retrace before resuming, and that should coincide with the 38.2 or 50 fib level, we'll know for sure once the market open so keep your eyes open http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
http://img164.imageshack.us/img164/5110/70062857vv7.png
http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/933/gjis4.gif
We can see that 203.60 area was a good support, it should be a good resistance now that it has been broken, plus it is between the 38.2 and the 50 fib which I expect price to retrace to, as jarroo says "Confluence!" http://www.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/winking.gif
Getting through that gann hi/lo is usually a tough one.
Attached Imageshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=111385&stc=1&d=1210577355
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=115612&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1211772267
AttachmentDate AddedSizeViewshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gj.gif Yesterday 11:24pm 24.2 KB 5 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbpjp888.gif May 12, 2008 3:29am 12.5 KB 196 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbpjpy44444.gif Apr 14, 2008 5:35am 20.2 KB 543 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbpjpy44444.gif Apr 13, 2008 10:15pm 20.0 KB 552 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbpjpydailyy.gif Apr 13, 2008 10:00pm 15.3 KB 557 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbpjpyweekly.gif Apr 13, 2008 9:58pm 12.1 KB 551 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif monthly1u23.gif Mar 27, 2008 10:11am 24.9 KB 792 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbuusd44houtchart.gif Mar 27, 2008 6:42am 17.9 KB 815 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbusddaailychart.gif Mar 27, 2008 6:42am 20.2 KB 814 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif gbusddaailyyy.gif Mar 27, 2008 5:05am 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FX Instructor Live Forex Trading...
FX Instructor Live Forex Trading Room Results | 11/20/2007
Its not necessarily every day that we get into a trade, nor do we need to enter a trade ev Its not necessarily every day that we get into a trade, nor do we need to enter a trade every day. We also have our share of losses. But for us, as long as we don't have any formed confirmations based on technicals, we don't enter into at trade. We spend the entire day here in the Live Trading Room analyzing the trades and different currencies using different tools to determine which phase of the price movement we are in.
Case in point, EUR/USD - for a couple of days now we have been looking for a Triangle Formation breakout on the H4 charts. We can see that the breakout took place to the upside - but the most important part, more so than the trade itself, is that we - and our members - are prepared. No matter which direction the breakout takes place in, we are ready with fixed targets, based on certain principles of Fibonacci Expansions which we use for targeting our Triangle setups.
Another tool we use is called a Headfake Line which we use to anticipate price movement. If our subscribers went Long, as some of them did, the price stopped precisely at the 127.2% Fib Expansion level - tell me the fibs don't work!
We firmly believe in Fibonaccis in the Live Trading Room, and use them with a lot of accuracy. Price really respects these levels!
Right now we are expecting some further upmoves on the EUR/USD, waiting for some retracements and pullbacks, and on a smaller timeframe we could identify what could be the extent of the pullback, and will possibly go Long again. Maybe the trade will come today, maybe tomorrow - thats really not the issue. The point is that we are prepared.
Another thing we had today was an interesting discussion of Fibonacci Fans, demonstrating the use right from the basics to the implementation, to the Rules of Thumb. And just as a perfect example, the GBP/JPY intraday gave us a trade today, during the late Asian session, and while we did not catch the trade, many of our subscribers have.
The trade was based on Bullish Divergence. Price giving lower lows, stochastics higher lows. Price did shoot up quite a bit - but see where it stopped! Your targets have to be fixed. Your exits are much more important than your entries. If you are not sure of your exits you might give back all the profit you earned with a good entry.
If we plot the Fibonacci Fans from a previous swing high across the entire moves, look at how the price found resistance accurately at the fan lines. This was a live demonstration of the effectiveness of Fibonacci Fans. So when you are in a trade, if you happen to get in, identify the setups, if your exits are fixed - you at least know where to take your profits and you can get out of the trade with a maximum amount of profits instead of giving them back.
Enjoy the video! (more) (less)
Added: 6 months ago
Views: 2,324
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04:43
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FX Instructor Live Forex Trading...
FX Instructor Live Forex Trading Room Results | 11/19/2007
This was the first day of the week, and as the market opens, we generally try to look for This was the first day of the week, and as the market opens, we generally try to look for gaps. Weekend opening gaps are quite effective, and there is a method to trade it. It usually succeeds quite well.
AUD/USD opened with a gap. The general theory is that when price opens with a gap, the market will come back to fill the gap most of the time. If the gap opens to the upside, we tend to target short trades. Subsequent to price filling the gap, it gives further clues on the expected further movement.
The gap begins to act as a sort of channel. As we can see on the AUD/USD intraday, price closed the gap, went beyond it, and came back to retest it, which gave us the indication that price would remain short for some time.
Similar situation on the NZD/USD. Price initially did come to fill up the gap, and gave us some retracements and pullbacks, but ended up coming back down like the AUD/USD.
Intraday, we've had a look at the fast-moving GBP/JPY. There was a Double-Top trade taken by some of our subscribers. Double-Top can be considered a sort of 1-2-3 Formation. For this type of chart pattern, we plot Fibonacci Expansions.
We were targeting FE 161.8, where the price stopped quite accurately. It was also in the New York session where the GBP/JPY gave further downward movement, though this was mostly because the Yen-based pairs are closely related to the Dow Jones.
Tomorrow as the market settles down we should be seeing more trades to make. Enjoy the video! (more) (less)
Added: 6 months ago
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02:51
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Secrets of MetaTrader Lesson 3: ...
Secrets of MetaTrader Lesson 3: Installing Indicators
This is lesson 3 in a series of video tutorials dedicated to the MetaTrader 4 forex tradin This is lesson 3 in a series of video tutorials dedicated to the MetaTrader 4 forex trading platform. In this series we explore the less commonly known features of the platform, and teach various tricks and tips to make your life as a trader easier.
This particular video discusses the process of installing new indicators by hand into MetaTrader 4, without having to search for the correct installation folder. This is a very handy technique for people who have more than one installation of MetaTrader 4 (ie: with different brokers).
See more FX Instructor videos and articles at http://www.fxinstructor.com. (more) (less)
Added: 6 months ago
Views: 3,491
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04:19
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Secrets of MetaTrader Lesson 2: ...
Secrets of MetaTrader Lesson 2: Duplicating and Stacking
This is lesson 2 in a series of video tutorials dedicated to the MetaTrader 4 forex tradin This is lesson 2 in a series of video tutorials dedicated to the MetaTrader 4 forex trading platform. In this series we explore the less commonly known features of the platform, and teach various tricks and tips to make your life as a trader easier.
This particular video discusses the process of duplicating chart objects in MetaTrader 4, as well as stacking indicators one on top of another.
See more FX Instructor videos and articles at http://www.fxinstructor.com. (more) (less)
Added: 6 months ago
Views: 3,343
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04:05
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FX Instructor Live Forex Trading...
FX Instructor Live Forex Trading Room Results | 11/07/2007
Out of intraday trade setups today, we traded just one. The Yen pairs were going crazy in Out of intraday trade setups today, we traded just one. The Yen pairs were going crazy in the Asian session, and have been dropping like a stone. We managed to catch the GBP/JPY - and did not anticipate such a large move.
The Divergence was certainly there - a Bearish Divergence. We entered our Short trade based on our Fibonacci Fan levels, and price went far beyond the expected target levels. We did not ride the price all the way down, however. This trade was a good example in the room of the effectiveness of Fibonacci Fans in general, and how to use them.
We have been following up with a Bullish Flag formation on the GBP/USD daily charts . Price is expected to go up the distance of the flagpole, and is well into the process now.
We also used the Andrew's Pitchfork in an interesting and different way - one of our members sent us the idea to aligned the APF in a way which gives higher targets for the GBP/USD. The way this is going, we expect the pair to rally up considerably, to the upper line of our APF.
I would like to close with an interesting development on the AUD/JPY. We have been following up this pair for some time. Based on the 4h charts, we had been expecting a downtrend, and plotted our Fibonacci Fan lines on the 4h charts. Once price enters into a fan channel, we expect it to continue retracing to a certain fan level. After price entered the fan channel, it has given us a Bearish Gartley Pattern.
Gartley Patterns are very, very accurate. You don't come across them very often, but the success rate is quiet high. So we are looking at considerable downmoves on this pair. This is one situation which we had put up in our forum about a week back, when we started following this up. Lets see tomorrow if the price respects the Gartley or not!
Enjoy the video! (more) (less)
Added: 6 months ago
Views: 1,161
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03:39
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Yen carry trade, and the future of the US dollar | ACM Forex
03:55 From: ACMForex
Views: 1,076
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November 5th, 2007 - Daily Forex Market News from cmsfx.com
03:04 From: tinaq442
Views: 48
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Forex News Day Trading Signal - 10/11/07
05:43 From: forexbastardsdotcom
Views: 1,147
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Forex Trading, Trade The FX market, Online Seminar, Part 10
04:19 From: forexti
Views: 201
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December 12th, 2007 - Daily Forex Market News from cmsfx.com
04:15 From: cmsfx
Views: 32
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Daily Video Recap - November 1st, 2007
03:12 From: tinaq442
Views: 117
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November 13th, 2007 - Daily Forex Market News from cmsfx.com
03:31 From: cmsfx
Views: 31
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Yen Carry Trade
02:52 From: speculativebubble
Views: 3,754
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The End of the Yen Carry Trade: TFN 60 Second Buzz 08/22/07
04:06 From: TaipanFinancialNews
Views: 576
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Commodities Recap - Nov 9
04:44 From: etvmedia
Views: 16
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November 9th, 2007 - Daily Forex Market News from cmsfx.com
03:42 From: cmsfx
Views: 236
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FOREX Training | FOREX Trading - March 12, 2007
13:22 From: fxbootcamp
Views: 2,051
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FOREX Training Video | New York Session February 28, 2008
13:54 From: fxbootcamp
Views: 761
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November 6th, 2007 - Daily Forex Market News from cmsfx.com
02:46 From: cmsfx
Views: 36
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