- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2002-9-8
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2007-5-24 19:53
|
亚洲时报：全民炒股，用钞票筑起新的长城
2007-05-23
提要：群众运动是中国的一种传统，如今中国出现了又一次自发的“群众运动”——“全民炒股”。当前，新股民和新资金的流入推动股市持续上涨，连连创下新高。分析界认为中国股市的涨势不可理解，散户则普遍认为股市有“中国特色”，即便存在泡沫政府也不会采取过于严厉的措施。然而，无论中国股市是否具有“中国特色”，价值法则最终都会发挥作用，分析师预计今年下半年沪深两市很可能会出现调整，股指跌幅有可能高达30%。
群众运动是中国传统的一部分，中国人倾向于进行群体行动。一旦条件成熟，就会在某个人或某个人群的带动下采取群体行动。上世纪60、70年代，中国的“全民皆兵”运动和文化大革命都属于这种情况。
炒股成“群众运动”
改革开放时代，“群众运动”看起来具备了更强的自发性。到80年代，中国曾出现“全民经商”时期。而今，中国出现了又一次群众运动：“全民炒股”。
随着上海和深圳股市的持续上涨，越来越多的中国国民加入了投机者大军。4月26日一天之内，中国就开设了约32.5万个新投资帐户，从而使帐户总数达到了9250万。这意味着，包括儿童和老人在内，平均每14个大陆居民之中就有一个股民。而这个数字还不包括通过投资基金参与股票交易的投资者。中国的13亿人口之中，农民约占80%。鉴于此，可以很有把握地说，几乎所有成年城镇居民都已成为股市投资者或投机者。
广州的一位王姓公务员说，在办公室的同事中，有9成是股民。“午餐时间，我们在办公室里谈论的都是股票。我在股市投了2万元。要是市场暴涨，我一天赚的钱就能超过一个月的工资。”
而上海的一名出租车司机则说，开出租车已经成了他的“兼职”工作，其“专职”工作则是“炒股”。这名司机告诉一家中国报纸，他和妻子做了分工：妻子每个交易日一早就前往一家证交所的交易厅，他则负责收听广播，并用电话告知妻子怎样操作。
深圳大学传播学院副教授马春辉是一名投资老手。最近，为了解大学生参与炒股的情况，他在学生中进行了调查。结果表明，年级越高的学生是股民的可能性越大。大一学生中约有10%是股民，而大四学生中股民的比例则猛增为80%。
另一项调查则显示，无论在政府部门、政府出资的机构还是在国有企业中，当今越来越多的职员上班后做的第一件事就是打开电脑，获取股市信息。
4月25日，沪深两市的成交量突破3000亿元，创下日成交量新高。4月底，中国第七大贷款机构中信银行在沪、港两地同时上市，发行总额为54亿美元的A股和H股股票。然而，仅在A股市场上，中信股票就冻结资金1.5万亿元人民币（约合1950亿美元）。
近期，中国的银行营业部常常人满为患，储户纷纷提取存款用于炒股。根据中国人民银行进行的一项调查，在2万名回复者之中，只有59.4%的人把银行存款当作最重要的金融资产，创该数字的新低；另一方面，30.7%的人认为投资股市值得，创下该数字的新高，比去年4季度的数值提高了11.7个百分点。
随着大量资金从存款帐户转向股市户头，中国储蓄存款的增长速度出现了大幅度下降。根据中国人民银行的数据，今年1季度人民币存款增长了1.9万亿元，比去年同期减少600亿元。
股市抗拒重力法则
新资本的持续流入是中国股市保持高涨的主要原因。上证综指和深证成指似乎在抗拒重力法则，连连创下新高。政府官员和专家警告说泡沫破裂的风险正在睁大，却为市场所忽视；而中央政府的宏观调控措施也没有产生效力。
4月29日，中国人民银行宣布再次提高商业银行的法定准备金率。消息宣布次日，香港恒生指数即下跌1%左右。然而上证综指却上涨2.7%，达到3841点，成交额达1886.56亿元；深圳成指上涨1.66%，成交额为926.36亿元。“五一”假期过后的5月8日，股市恢复交易，沪深两指数继续大幅攀升。其中，上证综指于3937点开盘，创下新高。
中国国歌的歌词创作于抗战期间，充满英雄气息，但一些恶作剧者却将其改成这样：“起来，不愿做贫困的人们！用我们的钞票，筑成我们新的长城。钱来，钱来……”。这段歌词已被放在互联网上，在股民之中颇为流行。
国外股市“有涨必有跌”的传统投资理念在中国股市被漠视。大陆股市投资者和投机者似乎认为，他们所在的市场“有中国特色”，不同于香港、伦敦或纽约股市。
无疑，当今沪深两市是任何理性分析无法解释的。平安证券研究所所长高利表示：“我们难以理解今天的市场。”他说，该机构的分析常常与市场走势背道而驰。一些分析家倾向于用一个词描述当前的中国市场：“疯狂”。
由于人民币仍未实现完全可兑换，因此中国股市仍然是对外封闭的。A股市场的投资者主要限于大陆投资者。根据合格境外机构投资者（QFII）计划，中国允许国外基金投资于A股市场。然而，QFII的投资限额为100亿美元，与近3000亿元的日成交量相比规模很小，更何况QFII投资还受到了其他限制。
2006年中国的GDP为20.9万亿元，而目前沪深两市的总市值已超过16万亿元，相当于GDP的80%左右。这样，大陆市场就超过香港，成为世界第7大股市（香港证交所的市值超过15万亿港元或14.7万亿元人民币）。
然而，大陆居民仍然持有巨额银行存款。据中国人民银行统计，中国的居民储蓄总额为17.2万亿元，仍然高于沪深两市市值之和，这还不包括机构投资者的资金。虽然中国国民掌握着巨额资金，但除了两家股票交易所之外，他们基本上没有其他投资渠道。
散户主导中国股市
正如本文开头所说，中国人倾向于进行集体行动。因此，在股市保持高涨之时，一名中国人就会效仿其邻居或同事的做法，把钱投入股市。毕竟，那些通过买卖股票一夜致富的故事具有难以抗拒的诱惑力。因此，进入股市的人越来越多，他们带来的新资金推动股指不断上涨。
到3月底，机构投资者持有的股票总值为1.72万亿元人民币，占沪深两市总市值的23.3%，比2月份下降了5个百分点。可见，3月份有更多的散户投资者进入了市场。这表明了股市的又一个“中国特色”－－股市为散户所主导。
此外，中国投资者或投机者认为，因为国家经济保持高速增长，因此股市前景良好。他们会说，与海外市场相比，当前的市盈率确实太高，但却会随着上市公司宣布利润的强劲增长而下降。
据新华社报道，迄今已有1028家上市公司公布了1季度财务报告。其中941家公司能够计算利润增幅，它们的1季度利润平均同比增幅达100%以上。主要钢铁公司的平均净利润同比大幅增长216.6%，而石化、电力和煤炭行业的盈利同样出现大幅度增长。这941家上市公司的净利润总额达678.7亿元。
到3月底，沪、深两市A股的平均市盈率接近40倍。然而，如果上市公司盈利翻番，那么市盈率将降至20倍。出于对上市公司利润增势的乐观判断，一些分析师预测，今年全年沪深两市的市盈率将降至28倍，到2008年将进一步降至22.8倍。
就个股而言，一些股票的市盈率高达数千倍，这又如何能够成立呢？投机者表示，这些股票之所以具有购买价值，是因为据预计这些企业将被收购。
此外，中国的投资者和投机者具有一个共同信念，即如果市场确实存在泡沫，政府也不会采取严厉措施让其破灭，在奥运会临近之际就更是如此。因为现在股市已经关系到近1亿人的利益，政府会担心市场崩溃导致社会动荡。作为中国股市的支配性力量，散户投资者和投机者普遍抱有这样的信念，因此看起来上海和深圳股市将继续保持一段时间的牛市，但天知道牛市会持续多久。
然而，有一点是确定无疑的：无论中国股市是否具有中国特色，价值法则最终都会发挥作用。因此，一些中国分析师谨慎地预计，今年下半年沪深两市很可能会出现调整，股指的跌幅有可能高达30%。
英文原文：China's masses rise up and buy stocks
HONG KONG - Mass movements are part of Chinese tradition. Chinese people tend to act as a group and, whenever conditions are ripe, they rush to join with someone or some group taking the lead. Hence a "mass movement" can be easily formed. In the 1960s and 1970s, there were the "all people becoming citizen-soldiers" movement and the Cultural Revolution launched by Mao Zedong.
In the era of economic reform and opening up, "mass movements" appear to have become more spontaneous. In the 1980s, there was a time when "all people rushed to do commercial businesses". And now we are witnessing another mass movement: "all people speculating in stocks".
Indeed, as the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets keep rising, more and more Chinese citizens join the army of speculators. On April 26, some 325,000 new investor accounts were opened on the single day, pushing the total number to 92.5 million. This means one out of every 14 mainland Chinese （including children and the aged） is now a player. This does not even include those who trade in shares through investment funds.
Considering that 80% of the 1.3 billion Chinese are farmers, it may be safe to say that almost all urban adults are stock investors or speculators.
A civil servant in Guangzhou, Wang, said 90% of the staff in his office bought and sold shares. "During the lunch break, all we talk about in our office is stocks. I have invested 20,000 yuan. With a big surge in the market, I can make more money on a single day than my monthly salary."
A taxi driver in Shanghai said driving a cab has became his "part-time" job, as his "full-time" work is to "speculate in shares". The taxi driver told a Chinese newspaper that he and his wife have a division of labor in the trade. His wife goes to an outlet of a securities brokerage house early in the morning on each trading day. He listens to the radio and give instructions to his wife by telephone to place orders.
Ma Chunhui, an associate professor with Shenzhen University's College of Communications, is a veteran investor. Recently he had his students do a survey to find out whether university students were also speculating in stocks. The results showed that the more senior a student is, the more likely that he or she is a speculator. Ten percent of the first-year students speculated in stocks, and the percentage jumped to 80% for fourth-year students.
Another survey has found that nowadays either in government departments, in government-funded institutions or in state-owned enterprises, the first thing more and more staffers do when they arrive in the office is to switch on computer terminals to obtain market information.
On April 25, the trading volume on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses exceeded 300 billion yuan （US$38.9 billion）, setting a daily trading record. In late April, Citic Bank, China's seventh-largest lender, launched its A-share and H-share offerings in Shanghai and Hong Kong simultaneously to raise about $5.4 billion. But on the A-share part alone, mainland subscribers put in some 1.5 trillion yuan （$195 billion） to bid for the lender's shares.
These days, bank branches in China are often crowded with depositors who rush to withdraw their savings for stock speculation. A survey conducted by the People's Bank of China （PBoC）, the country's central bank, indicated that a record low of 59.4% of the 20,000 respondents regarded bank deposits as the most important financial asset. Meanwhile, an all-time high of 30.7% believed it pays to invest in the stock market, up 11.7 percentage points over the fourth quarter last year.
With large sums of money flowing from deposit accounts into stock-trading accounts, China's savings deposits are growing much more slowly. According to PBoC figures, the country's yuan savings deposits increased by 1.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter this year, with the growth down by 60 billion yuan on the same period last year.
The continuous inflow of large sums of fresh capital is the major force keeping the Chinese stock markets bullish. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Component Index of the smaller Shenzhen bourse appear to defy the law of gravity, shooting up to set new record highs. Warnings by government officials and experts about the growing risk of a bubble burst are ignored. Beijing's macroeconomic control measures are defied.
On April 29, the central bank announced another increase of the deposit reserve ratio for commercial banks. This prompted Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to drop about 1% on the second day in a response to the further belt-tightening measure. But the Shanghai Composite Index surged 2.7% to hit 3,841, with turnover reaching 188.656 billion yuan.
The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.66% with a turnover of 92.636 billion yuan. This Tuesday, when trading resumed after the May 1 Labor Day break, the two indexes continued to climb remarkably. with the Shanghai Composite Index opening higher at 3937, setting a new record high.
The traditional investment wisdom that "what goes up comes down" in overseas markets is scorned. Mainland Chinese stock investors and speculators seem to believe they have markets "with Chinese characteristics", different from those in Hong Kong, London or New York.
China's national anthem was written during the anti-Japanese war with heroic words like "Arise, ye who refuse to be slaves! With our very flesh and blood, let us build our new Great Wall （against the invaders）! ... March on, march on." Now some prankster has changed some words as: "Arise, ye who refuse to be poor! With our salary and savings, let's build our new Great Wall （against the bear）. Money comes, money comes ..." and put it on the Internet, which has become quite popular among stock speculators.
Indeed, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets nowadays defy any rational analysis. "It is hard for us to understand today's markets," said Gao Li, vice director of the Research Institute of Ping An Securities. Gao said the institute's analyses often go against the moving trends of the markets. Some analysts tend to use one word to describe the current Chinese markets: "madness".
As the yuan remains not fully convertible, the Chinese stock markets are still closed to overseas investors. The yuan-denominated A shares are still largely restricted to mainland investors. There is the so-called qualified foreign institutional investor （QFII） scheme that allows overseas funds to invest in A shares. But the quota for QFII is capped at $10 billion, which is very small even compared with the daily trading of nearly 300 billion yuan, not to mention other restrictions on QFII investment.
Currently, the capitalization of the two bourses exceeds 16 trillion yuan, accounting for about 80% of the country's gross domestic product （GDP）, which was 20.9 trillion yuan in 2006. This has enabled the mainland to replace Hong Kong as the world's seventh-largest stock market （the capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is more than HK$15 trillion or 14.7 trillion yuan）.
However, mainland residents still have huge savings in banks. According to PBoC statistics, China's household savings deposits totaled 17.2 trillion yuan, which is far more than the total capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. This does not even mention funds from institutional investors. While there is too much money in people's hands, there are basically no other channels for people to invest their money, except for the two bourses.
And as I said in the beginning, the Chinese tend to act collectively. So when the markets remain bullish, one follows his or her neighbors or colleagues to put money in. After all, stories of those who became rich overnight by buying and selling shares are too tempting to resist. As a result, more and more people enter the markets, bringing in fresh funds to push the indices up.
By the end of March, A shares held by institutional investors were worth 1.72 trillion yuan in total, accounting for 23.3% of the total capitalization of the two bourses. This was, however, 5 percentage points less than in February, indicating more retail investors had entered the market in March. This shows another "Chinese characteristic" of the markets - that they are dominated by retail investors.
Moreover, the Chinese investors or speculators believe the outlook of the markets is good because of the country's high-speed economic growth. Yes, they would say, the price/earnings （P/E） ratio at the moment may be too high compared with overseas markets, but this will come down when listed companies report strong growth in profits.
According to a Xinhua report, of the 1,028 listed companies that have so far filed quarterly fiscal statements, 941 have reported average profit increases of more than 100% in the first quarter from a year before. The average net profits of major steelmakers grew by 216.6% year on year, while companies in the petrochemical, power and coal sectors also recorded big jumps. The combined profits of 941 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges registered combined net profits of 67.87 billion yuan during the period.
By the end of March, the average price of A shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was nearly 40 times their average earnings. But if their profits double, the ratio would be reduced to 20. Optimistic about profit growth of listed companies, some analysts have estimated the average P/E ratio of the two bourses will drop to about 28 for the whole of this year and further down to 22.6 in 2008.
As for individual shares, the P/E ratio of some shares now is as high as several thousand. How to justify this? Speculators say such shares are worth buying because their companies are expected to be taken over.
Moreover, there is a general belief among Chinese investors and speculators alike that the government will refrain from taking harsh measures, especially in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics next year, to burst the bubble, if there is one. For the government fears a market crash would lead to social unrest, as now the interests of nearly 100 million people are involved.
With such sentiments prevailing among retail investors and speculators, the dominant force in the Chinese markets, it looks as if the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are likely to remain bullish for while. But for how long? Heaven knows.
But one thing is certain: the law of value will eventually play its role in a market, whether it is with Chinese characteristics or not. From this perspective, some Chinese analysts warily predict that the two bourses are likely to undergo an adjustment in the latter half of this year, when the indices may plunge as much as 30%.
来源：亚洲时报 |
|
|
[复制链接]
发表于 2007-5-24 17:34
|
