谁能分析一下，600550的势起来了没有。原来550涨了创新高就要调整几天，不知明天550走势怎样？又将下跌吗？
温家宝主持召开国家能源领导小组第二次会议
研究部署当前能源工作 审议《可再生能源中长期发展规划》
北京４月２０日电中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理、国家能源领导小组组长温家宝20日主持
召开国家能源领导小组第二次会议，听取《2005年能源工作和2006年主要任务》的汇报，
审议《可再生能源中长期发展规划》。
温家宝在讲话中指出，能源问题关系我国经济发展、社会稳定和国家安全，必须坚持开发与节约并重、
把节约放在首位的方针，采取更加有力的措施全面推动能源节约，大力发展可再生能源，增加能源供给，
调节能源需求，调整能源结构，努力开创能源工作新局面。
中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、国家能源领导小组副组长曾培炎出席会议。
会议认为，去年以来，我国能源发展和改革工作取得了新进展。能源供需紧张状况有所缓解，节能降耗
工作积极推进，能源工业改革继续深入，能源对外合作力度加大，能源法制建设和规划工作得到加强。
但是，当前能源形势依然比较严峻，我国能源供求矛盾将长期存在，确保能源安全，构筑稳定、经济、
清洁的能源供给体系，以能源的可持续发展支持经济社会的可持续发展，是我国现代化建设中一项长期的
重大战略任务。要充分认识做好新的发展阶段能源工作的极端重要性，把能源工作摆在更加突出的位置，
下更大力气抓实抓好。
会议提出，今年重点做好以下几项工作：
（一）大力抓好能源节约。要切实把节约能源放在更加突出的位置。关键是要加快推进经济结构调整和
经济增长方式转变，突出抓好重点耗能行业和企业的节能工作。深化能源体制改革，抓紧制定和完善鼓励
节能的财税、信贷、技术、价格等政策。要增加节能资金投入，重点用于节能技术开发推广和节能技术
改造。将节能降耗指标纳入经济社会发展统计、评价、考核体系，定期公布各地区和主要行业的单位国内
生产总值能源消耗情况。
（二）着力提高能源产业技术水平。要推进能源科技进步，切实增强能源创新
能力建设。积极推广先进适用能源技术，加快热电联产、煤炭先进开采、能源综合利用等技术的开发应用。
依托国家重点建设工程，坚持技术引进与消化吸收相结合，围绕关键核心技术组织研究开发，提高重大
能源技术装备自主研制和集成创新能力。
（三）加强能源立法和规划工作。要进一步完善能源法律法规
体系。抓紧制定“十一五”能源总体规划，修订完善有关专项规划和专题规划，发挥规划对能源节约和发展
的引导作用。
会议指出，可再生能源是重要的战略替代能源，对增加能源供应，改善能源结构，保障能源安全，保护
环境有重要作用，是建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会和实现可持续发展的重要战略措施。要更加重视
水能、风能、太阳能、生物质能、地热能等可再生能源的开发利用。加快发展水电、太阳能热利用、沼气
等技术成熟的可再生能源，尽快使优良资源得到合理开发利用；积极推进资源潜力巨大，
技术基本成熟的风力发电、生物质发电、太阳能发电、生物质液化等可再生能源技术的发展，以规模化建设
带动产业化发展。要采取行之有效的保障措施，包括营造市场需求、消除市场障碍、财政税收扶持、推动技术
进步、培育产业体系、加强法制建设等，加快可再生能源发展，不断提高优质清洁能源在能源结构中的比例。
会议对进一步做好能源工作提出了要求。一要统一思想，提高认识，坚持用科学发展观统领各项能源工作。
二要把握大局，统筹兼顾，正确处理当前与长远、局部与全局的关系。三要密切协作，形成合力，
共同推动能源工作。四要深化改革，勇于创新，提高能源管理水平。五要狠抓落实，注重实效。
国家能源领导小组全体成员参加了会议，有关部门、能源协会和企业负责人列席了会议。（完）
[ 本帖最后由 the_top 于 2006-4-20 19:52 编辑 ]
测试,怎么我状态是离线,奇怪?
Suntech Power: The Future Is Bright
Suntech is a reasonably valued, low-cost manufacturer in an industry where pricing is paramount and valuations tend to be sky-high.
By Will Frankenhoff
April 17, 2006
As readers might have noticed from past articles such as "Can Oil Still Power Portfolios?," I'm a fervent believer in the prospects of the oil industry over the next few years. However, being bullish on oil doesn't mean I'm blind to the growing opportunities in alternative energy in general or, more specifically, in the realm of solar power.
I believe the combination of continued growth in world energy demand, the ever-increasing affordability of photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules, and growing government incentives for renewable energy sources should drive the global market for solar energy significantly higher over the coming months and years.
There are many ways to invest in the emergence of solar power as an economically feasible energy source, ranging from major oils with significant investments in solar, such as mighty BP (NYSE: BP), to conglomerates like Kyocera (NYSE: KYO) and wafer manufacturers like MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR). My favorite pure play in the sector, however, is a recent IPO -- Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP), a low-cost Chinese manufacturer of PV cells and modules.
Now, I recognize that I'm highlighting a company that could be perceived as a poster child for risk -- the very words "solar," "China," and "IPO" tend to have a chilling effect on investors sometimes -- but appearances can sometimes be deceiving. Don't get me wrong -- investing in Suntech isn't for the faint of heart, nor is it a place to put Grandma's savings. But for a patient, long-term investor, the risk/reward ratio certainly looks favorable.
Let's begin by taking a quick look at the solar market in general:
World energy demand
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, worldwide electricity demand is expected to jump from 14.3 billion megawatt (MW)-hours in 2002 to 26 billion MW-hours in 2025 -- an increase of 82%. According to Solarbuzz, an independent solar research firm, solar energy production presently accounts for less than 0.01% of this total -- a mere 5,000 MW. This statistic will have to change, given the tightness (and finite supply) of traditional sources of supply such as oil, natural gas, and coal.
Solar energy affordability
The inhibitor to wide-scale adoption of solar power has always been cost, yet this factor is slowly but surely changing. Over the past 15 years, solar energy (PV) prices have declined by an average 4% per year, driven by increased conversion efficiencies (the average solar module currently has an efficiency of 15%) and economies of scale. As a result, electricity can now be generated for $0.22-$0.40 per kilowatt/hour without government incentives. However, where government incentive programs exist, this cost drops down to around $0.10-$0.12 per kilowatt/hour. This compares to the average U.S. residential electricity price of $0.085 per kilowatt/hour.
Government incentives
Obviously, as illustrated above, government incentive programs will continue to be key factors in driving future adoption of solar power. A quick look at a few countries shows that incentives remain strong. In Spain, the government-subsidized PV projects to the tune of $230 million in 2004. In Germany, banks approved loans for more than 250 MW of PV systems by the end of 2003. In the U.S., the California Solar Initiative is an 11-year, $3.2 billion incentive program that aims to install 3,000 MW of solar power. And in China, the government is considering more favorable tax incentives on top of the 50% break awarded to investors in renewable energy.
PV market growth
The combination of these three drivers (as well as soaring prices for fossil fuels) bodes well for growth in the solar market. Indeed, the trend toward increased solar energy demand is already evident in the fact that the global PV market, as measured by annual PV system installations, jumped from 254 MW in 2000 to more than 1,450 MW in 2005 -- a compound annual growth rate in excess of 37%. This growth shows little sign of slowing, and Solarbuzz projects that PV annual installations in 2010 will total between 3,200 and 3,900 MW, generating industry revenues of approximately $18.6 billion-$23.1 billion. That's not a small chunk of change, especially when you compare it to worldwide industry revenue of just $6.4 billion in 2004. Suntech Power is well-positioned to grab a piece of that proverbial pie.
Suntech Power
As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, Suntech Power is a China-based manufacturer of PV cells and modules. The key to this story (aside from the generally positive trend in the overall solar market) is its position as a low-cost manufacturer -- a factor that enables it to post margins significantly better than its competitors'. This point is amply illustrated by Suntech's gross margin of 28% in the fourth quarter of 2005, compared with the 20% and 14% gross margins posted by competitors Sunpower (Nasdaq: SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR), respectively. Suntech also earned money in the quarter (to the tune of $10.6 million, or $0.09 per diluted share), while both Sunpower and Evergreen bled red ink.
This cost advantage will enable Suntech to better withstand the upward pressure on silicon prices currently affecting the industry. The company's expected ramp-up to around 205 MW of production capacity by the end of 2006 (compared with just 85 MW in 2005, according to Morgan Stanley) should further enhance its market position and profitability.
Additional drivers include the company's expected grant of reception of the Underwriter's Lab Certification this month (which will allow it to enter the U.S. market), the Chinese government's stated objective of having renewable energy supply make up 15% of its total energy needs by 2020 (up from 7% currently), and the possibility that Suntech will invest in an upstream silicon manufacturer to obtain a secure supply of material.
Sounds interesting, but what about the valuation?
Suntech Power went public just last December at $15 per share. Shares of this low-cost solar play have found a receptive audience, now trading at around $33.50 per share, or around 30 times forward earnings estimates of $1.14 per share.
Looks a bit pricey, no?
Well, as I said before, appearances can be deceiving. Consider this: Competitor Sunpower trades at around 54 times forward earnings, while Evergreen Solar sports a mind-numbing multiple of closer to 725 times fiscal 2007 earnings. Furthermore, at 30 times fiscal 2007 earnings, Suntech trades at a significant discount to its projected earnings growth rate of 84% -- a growth rate likely to be proved conservative because of the company's planned capacity expansion, its imminent approval to enter the U.S. market, and its pole position in China.
All in all, I think investors with healthy risk appetites who are looking for a bit of diversity in their energy portfolios should take a look at shares of Suntech Power. Just don't forget to wear your shades.
要点：Will Frankenhoff 评尚德－－尚德有充分的理由被认为是有价值的，作为一个低成本制造商，在一个价格极其重要而估值高到天上去的行业
550在确认定向增发价前不会有太大的涨幅,应该在22.00元以下,大家有什么看法?
原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-20 09:50 发表
又一批强势股回在短期的大跌中显现!
大盘短期调整刚刚拉开序幕,有色金属面临大幅调整将是下一批带领大盘调整的因素!在调整中会完成热点转化,新能源将成为新的热点.天威会继续震荡上行!
原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-20 08:38 发表
天威上涨的大局已压不住了!
继续上行!!!!
原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-19 10:50 发表
今天吹出了主升的号角!!!
2.28涨停拉开序幕,4.19吹出主升号角!前进途中....................
原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-20 20:18 发表
继续上行!!!!
理由不充分，大盘下跌大多数股票都要将或多或少的下跌，凭什么550就上涨。也许庄家正好借机洗盘。
原帖由 pingxianren666 于 2006-4-20 20:29 发表
理由不充分，大盘下跌大多数股票都要将或多或少的下跌，凭什么550就上涨。也许庄家正好借机洗盘。
呵呵,拭目以待!
我今天持仓没动，昨天出的加仓了3g个股，明天要高了我还会少量出点的。留着钱再也不动了，如果有回调就再买回来。毕竟大盘还很难说，高抛低吸保住利润，不断摊低底仓成本对我来说也是很重要的。
原帖由 qinjiayu 于 2006-4-18 20:30 发表
小雨，说说，什么趋势明了了？
我可是最近继续在用期货返流资金增仓的啊。:P
奇怪了,现在怎么没您的声音了?呵呵.......
原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-20 20:35 发表
奇怪了,现在怎么没您的声音了?呵呵.......
难道我一看多,没了争吵对象,就把天威卖了???这真是:论坛依旧在.人事物已非啊,呵呵..
原帖由 the_top 于 2006-4-20 19:49 发表
温家宝主持召开国家能源领导小组第二次会议
研究部署当前能源工作 审议《可再生能源中长期发展规划》
北京４月２０日电中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理、国家能源领导小组组长温家宝20日主持 ...
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
这是今天晚上新闻联播播出的吗？如果是，那么明天550涨停！
TOP转贴的这篇东东竟然没有人注意，太不应该了！
大盘明天要站上1400点，靠什么？靠天威！
温总理都吹号了，会没反应吗？
难道非要小胡同志发话吗？
关于550增发的价格和数量（探讨）
作个算术：
前提假设：550目前总股本33000万，集团持有17671万，假设增发x万股，其中集团认购0.28x万股，增发融资目标36000万元。
1）天威集团必须履行股改承诺，3年内持有超过51％的550的股份。
则应该满足这个不等式：(33000+x)×0.51< = 17671+0.28x, 推得： x<=3656万
也就是说，如果集团认购增发部分的比例是28％，则理论上说，只要增发数量不超过3656万股，则增发后集团的持股比例不小于51％。 这个也许就是550公告中增发数量不超过3500万的理论依据。 按照一般增发的特点，最后的增发数量就是3500万。
2）增发价格。鉴于目前天威集团的资金也非常紧张，所以假设，须筹集的36000万元全部由增发部分的72％的股份共2520万股提供，则每股的增发价格为，36000/2520＝14.3元，考虑到发行成本，增发价格可以定在15－16元。天威集团按照28％的比例，应该出资1.6-1.8个亿，资金困难怎么办，是不是可以考虑向上市公司注入一些资产来抵冲。（公告中间好象没说天威集团必须用现金来认购）
3）15－16元增发价格的K线意义。 记得550在0321公布年报的当天，同时公布了增发方案和Yingli的上市计划，当天股价收在14.91，第二天调整，第三天0323以坚决涨停突破15元的前期高点，之后股价就再也没有低于15元。这个中间，如果真有机构投资者和上市公司的博弈，明眼人应该能够看出些端倪。
所以，根据我的一番计算和推理，结论：
1）550增发数量3500万，增发价格15-16元；
2）天威集团可能通过注入资产来抵冲出资。
[ 本帖最后由 oliveguy 于 2006-4-20 21:24 编辑 ]
晕，天威集团肯定是注入资产，这还用计算？呵呵。
原帖由 kutn 于 2006-4-20 20:49 发表
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
这是今天晚上新闻联播播出的吗？如果是，那么明天550涨停！
TOP转贴的这篇东东竟然没有人注意，太不应该了！
大盘明天要站上1400点，靠 ...
放心，明天的几个证券报和财经网站都会把这个放在醒目的位置，个人也觉得550明天很有可能涨停，复制0321-0323的走势。
重要的是，现在布油06仍然在向上狂飙突破74美元。
[ 本帖最后由 oliveguy 于 2006-4-20 21:08 编辑 ]
原帖由 卡布里的月光 于 2006-4-20 21:01 发表
晕，天威集团肯定是注入资产，这还用计算？呵呵。
:):):):):)呵呵，职业习惯啊，什么东东都力求量化一下。
请教卡兄，偶分析的3500万@15元的增发方案，可能性有多大？
原帖由 oliveguy 于 2006-4-20 20:54 发表
关于550增发的价格和数量（探讨）
作个算术：
前提假设：550目前总股本33000万，集团持有17671万，假设增发x万股，其中集团认购0.28x万股
1）天威集团必须履行股改承诺，3年内持有超过51％的550的股份。 ...
谢谢你的功课！顶。