一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-地狱级炒手 - 〖期货技术交流〗 - MACD俱乐部_专业的技术分析交流

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:33

12/20/2005 10:23:00 PM | 0 comments »
Here are some interesting charts i'm watching.

PNRA may bounce off this trendline. http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/pnra.jpg
The next two stocks are in deep corrections. Sometimes the last few days are panic induced so you may be able to get a bargain. The best thing is to not be greedy and try and get the exact bottom. Wait for it to settle down.

MCX selling may be getting out of hand here. I will watch this over the next few days, although I can't see many scenarios where I will buy this tomorrow. Maybe Thursday though.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/mcx.jpgQDEL is an example of one that is playable. Made the hammer and then had a higher high today. There are still sellers which can be seen by the long upper shadow today.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/qdel.1.jpg
NBIX:This has been consolidating and is forming a little triangle. There is a lot of resistance in the upper 63's so be careful. This may end up being a short if the next attack on 64 fails.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/nbix.3.jpgGILD: Another one that could go either way. Looks like it bounced off the trendline but there is still plenty of overhead resistance. Worth watching though.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/gild.1.jpgANF could breakout soon. It is also forming a nice triangle and a larger cup and handle base.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/anf.0.jpg
Good Luck,

DT

Energy Rebound? Posted by downtowntrader | 12/20/2005 10:12:00 PM | 0 comments »

I think we will see a rebound in energy / oil service stocks here. Let's start with oih who had a bullish engulfing pattern after touching the trendline.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/oih.jpgThis is a former high flyer who has been consolidating. This is not a sure thing, but I will be watching it here as it is near support.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/abp.jpgThis is a good looking chart. I like GRP and there is a logical stop area..
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/grp.0.jpgINT also looks decent here. Right at support and with a sector that may turn up soon.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/int.0.jpg
I've been early before, and may be early again, but I think these charts are worth watching the next few days.

DT

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:34

Update Posted by downtowntrader | 12/26/2005 10:06:00 PM | 1 comments »

Here are a couple of charts to look at. I am still on vacation, so I am not looking

couple of charts to look at. I am still on vacation, so I am not looking at entering anything new, however these are stocks I hold positions in.

PETS: Pets debuted on the IBD 100 at #11 this weekend.

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/pets.jpgBOOM is forming a nice pennant here.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/boom.4.jpgANF closed above an ascending triangle which is bullish. However, I will be careful as there is resistance above.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/anf.2.jpgGood Luck,

DT

Vacation Posted by downtowntrader | 12/22/2005 09:06:00 PM | 0 comments »

I will be on vacation tomorrow and most of next week, so I will not be posting much. There were some decent moves today but overall the market didn't seem as strong as you would think with the averages up. Here is an hourly chart of QDEL with fibonacci fans. Watch for a break of the 50% fib fan to go long.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/qdel.2.jpg
Good Luck and Happy Holidays,

DT

Let's talk triangles Posted by downtowntrader | 12/21/2005 10:14:00 PM | 0 comments »

One of my favorite patterns in a market that has been consolidating is the triangle. It seems like there are a lot of triangles showing in charts so we may be getting ready to make a move here. If you see a bunch of triangles failing, in other words false breakouts, heed the warning and trim back on positions. That usually means the markets will turn sour and that is how it warns us. Failed breakouts are because too many people are anxious to lock in their profits. Here are a few triangles, some have already moved out of the base and others are still testing the trendline.

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/cmed.1.jpg
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/nbix.5.jpg
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/anf.1.jpg
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/boom.3.jpg
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/yhoo.jpg
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/ffiv.jpgMotorola is not in a triangle like base, but this may be classified as a pennant. Watch for a close out of the channel. Indicators are looking good as they were deeply oversold.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2875/1447/320/mot.0.jpg
Good Luck

DT

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:51

Stock Chart SMH Posted by downtowntrader | 2/17/2009 01:04:00 AM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis SMH

Semiconductor HOLDRs (ETF)(Public, NYSE:SMH)

I wrote on the semiconductors a few weeks ago, and how they were looking strong to me. I've kept my eye on the group since then, and they continue to look better as a sector than most of the general markets. The Nasdaq has been outperforming the Dow and S&P500 and part of that credit is due to the semiconductors. The problem is that the financials seem hell bent on dragging everything down with them. If the general markets end up rallying from this consolidation, then I feel that semi's will be one of the leading groups.

Many semiconductor stocks have similar charts showing possible double bottoms. In looking at the chart for SMH, it is showing more of a triangle like consolidation. The 20 and 50 day moving averages are starting to curve higher and have supported the last two dips. SMH is an interesting position here as a solid move over 19 should lead to a breakout that challenges the declining 200 day sma more than 20% away. This is a pretty good reward based on the risk needed to take this trade.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SZpTpU2jhWI/AAAAAAAAB2Y/PdXnJbwAbtE/s400/smh.JPGRight now it looks like the markets are set to gap lower tomorrow morning so it may wipe this trade out altogether. However, if it holds the current levels after the upcoming weakness, then I will be more optimistic of a pending breakout.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis AFAM Posted by downtowntrader | 2/10/2009 10:18:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AFAM

Almost Family, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:AFAM)

Lately it seems that any stock is fair game for a total melt down, regardless of its performance through the recent market downturn. AFAM swam up current through most of 2008, clearing a flag type consolidation in early November to hit all time highs. It then settled into a triangle that appeared to be setting up for a continuation move higher. However, AFAM instead broke down through the triangle and surged under the past two consolidations. This put all buyers for the prior 5 months underwater. This probably came as quite a shock to most shareholders, as AFAM appeared immune to the bear market. Many of those traders may be looking to get out close to breakeven on any bounces into the prior base.

AFAM just had a bounce into the lower part of the prior base which also coincides with its 200-Day moving average. It appears to be quickly failing at this level, and could be setting up for new lows. Slow Stochastics seems to be confirming this as it is crossing back down early, before reaching overbought levels. While AFAM may not head lower in a straight line, it does appear that the $35 area poses some stiff resistance and could reject future bounces. This area would probably offer some decent shorting opportunities with a tight stop loss area.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SZJDwu9kIpI/AAAAAAAAB2Q/gDwYmLd2EzA/s400/afam.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart GERN Posted by downtowntrader | 2/03/2009 09:52:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GERN

Geron Corporation(Public, NASDAQ:GERN)

While the general markets seem to be at a stalemate, several individual stocks are acting well. Stocks like AMZN, APOL, and ASEI have been trending well and it appears that at least some money is finding its way back into the market.

One group that has been trading well recently are Stem cell related stocks. GERN is a stock in this sector that has seen an increase in trading activity recently when they announced the first embryonic stem cell trial in the US. It gapped strongly on the heels of the announcement and has refused to give up much of price gain in subsequent trading. It appears to be forming a bull flag which is among the most powerful chart patterns. Stocks often consolidate these breakouts in tight flags and often resume the initial move after resting. The measured move for bull flag breakouts is the length of the flag pole, which translates to about 3 points in this chart. I typically watch for the 9 day ema to catch up to price and often it will rally from there. While it's not guaranteed, it is one of the patterns I look for. Another alternative, is a more prolonged consolidation, that becomes more of a triangle or rectangle base. In either case, GERN is one that merits a close watch.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SYkDEbqADqI/AAAAAAAAB2I/xytStpg8-ks/s400/gern.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

Recent Trading Articles Posted by downtowntrader | 1/29/2009 11:01:00 AM | 3 comments »

I haven't had a chance to post links to the recent articles I have written on Investopedia.com. Here is a list of the most recent:

Electronics Stores outperforming Retail SectorSemiconductors poised to pop
Continued Weakness in Credit CardsTechnicals start to show signs of a shift in the financialsIs Fibonacci pointing to a bounceAre the refiners under accumulationHigh Volume Breakouts Signal a move higherMoney Flowing into Biotech StocksNetwork Companies on the ReboundREITS Testing an Important Benchmark
I usually post these soon after they are published on my twitter page, so if you're interested you can follow me on twitter here.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart PHLX $SOX Posted by downtowntrader | 1/27/2009 08:08:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis Phlx Semiconductor Index

I wrote an article recently for Investopedia regarding some semiconductor stocks that were looking bullish to me. The Semi's continue to look decent to me, and it's always a good thing when they lead the Nasdaq and thus the markets higher. I decided to post an analysis of the $SOX index to illustrate what I'm seeing.

The first section of the chart shows a relative strength ratio between the $SOX and the S&P500. Notice that it has been rising for over a month and has been finding support along the trend line shown. The next section simply shows a positive crossover from below 20 on the slow stochastics indicator. While I don't use this as a trading signal, it does show that the stock is only just reversing from an oversold reading and could still have plenty of momentum behind it. Its also showing a positive divergence in that the stock is well above where it was on the last stochastics reading below 20.

In analysing the price action, it looks to me like the semiconductors broke the downtrend in mid December and began to trade sideways in a consolidation. It has been attempting to build a base for the past three months which resembles a reverse head and shoulders. I drew an internal trend line which shows a price level of importance as price has been repeatedly trading in this area. Think of it like you would of the mid area of a regression channel. The semiconductors are in the middle of their bands and have yet to confirm a move out of the lateral trading range. I would favor an upside breakout, but in my eyes the breakout levels to either side are very clear. While all eyes are on the financials, I am looking to the semiconductors as one of my leading indicators on whether the markets will rally from here.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SX-w29lxVyI/AAAAAAAAB2A/s2MFD7X-q6A/s400/sox.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

Plan your attack Posted by downtowntrader | 1/26/2009 08:45:00 AM | 0 comments »

I have written in the past of how important it is to plan for a few different scenarios in regards to your trading. Regardless of your bias, it is important to plan for contingencies so that you are not caught unprepared with an adverse reaction in the markets. Regardless of how many indicators lineup for your intended trade, the markets will do whatever they feel like it, and as a trader you must remain nonobjective and prepared for anything. I found three great links this weekend highlighting a few different ways traders plan for trading this environment.

Great example of a trader having a plan of attack for trading the current environment.

Great example of a trader having a plan of attack regardless of whether markets go up or down this week.
Great example of a trader having a plan of attack for daytrading this environment.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart SGR Posted by downtowntrader | 1/22/2009 11:43:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis SGR

The Shaw Group Inc.(Public, NYSE:SGR)

I wrote an article on high volume breakouts for Investopedia about 10 days ago, and one of the stocks I highlighted was SGR. I decided to follow up with an analysis because the stock has held up well since the article through some market weakness, and continues to consolidate the move I discussed.

SGR was able to clear a nice double bottom early this year and has managed to hold above the neckline for several sessions. It had a nice high volume up day about two weeks ago, and has only retraced about 50% into that candle. These are bullish characteristics, and SGR may be headed for a test of its declining 200 sma ($39.81 not pictured). The 20 and 50 day sma's are now starting to slope upwards, and should support SGR on pullbacks. The nice thing about this chart is that it has a few clear stop loss area's (such as below 1/08 candle) for which to easily measure risk. While I wouldn't be too optimistic of SGR clearing the 200 day sma on its first try, just reaching that area is good for over 40%. Lets see if the markets cooperate.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SXlLJEBkkvI/AAAAAAAAB1k/3bV5R6SSVc0/s400/sgr.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:51

Inauguration Selloff Posted by downtowntrader | 1/21/2009 10:23:00 AM | 0 comments »

It seems the news out of Europe regarding the potential nationalizing of some banks spooked the markets well ahead of the Presidential Inauguration. Financials were destroyed with several stocks losing over 15%. The Direxion Financial Bear 3X shares (NYSE:FAZ) ETF was up a staggering 40%. It all culminated in the worst Inauguration decline in history for the Dow. So where do we go from here?

It seems a foregone conclusion that the markets will test the November lows, and it's probably the most likely near term pattern. I highly doubt the markets would break that level severely without some sort of consolidation or rally attempt prior to the test. While it's true that oversold markets can remain oversold, they don't typically break major support in that state. The plunge lower often traps the last sellers and quickly reverses. However, if the markets attempt to rally for a few days, work off their oversold tensions, and then rollover, it could get ugly.

Some of the financial stocks caught some bears off guard today with a gap higher and early strength. They key to any rally at this point is the financials. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) for instance, erased yesterdays losses and actually traded higher than yesterdays high. As of 11:00am it was back under the previous days highs, but well above the lows. I'll be watching them as well as GS as my market tells today.

Good Trading,

Joey

What Next? Posted by downtowntrader | 1/14/2009 09:55:00 PM | 0 comments »

The markets were very weak today, with most of the major indexes down over 3%. The indexes are only 7 days from recent highs, and yet some are already close to their December lows. I would say that things are starting to get oversold quite quickly, and that the markets should get a bounce back fairly soon. The question is, do we rally from here into the inauguration? Continue falling into the inauguration and rally afterwards? Do we test the November lows before a bounce? Do we bounce weakly and setup for breaking the November lows? Do we completely crash?

There are so many possibilities right now, and in my opinion, it's too dangerous to be leaning too hard to either side. The danger of a snap back rally is quite high, yet, the markets could really slide for a few more days as well. For the most part, I have been going home flat since early January. The only swing trades I have made recently are a few shorts and long oil. If you choose to hold overnight, think about reducing position size with a larger stop, as it looks like the VIX is bouncing and that could lead to more frequent gaps.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart QQQQ Posted by downtowntrader | 1/12/2009 11:30:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis QQQQ

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF)(Public, NASDAQ:QQQQ)

I decided to analyze the Q's tonight, because the markets are at a critical juncture right now. I mentioned in a previous post how I felt the markets were becoming overbought, after rallying for the better part of a month following the November lows. The markets have since been pulling back and are at or close to some levels of support. I have highlighted several areas of interest on the chart below showing how I see the price action. Overall, QQQQ has been trading in a descending broadening wedge, which is neither bullish nor bearish. It is simply a consolidation pattern.

The Q's fell out of a small bearish rising wedge a few weeks ago which led to a small pullback and was then followed by new highs. It can also be classified as trading within a trading channel (shown in red). Price never made it to the upper range of the channel on the last high, and was followed by a break of the channel. The break occured with a bearish cross on slow stochastics, and MACD is also close to confirming the move lower. These are all bearish signs, showing current weakness in the Q's.

However, the Q's are also approaching some support levels and most of the recent price action has been on muted volume. The key will be how the Q's handle these levels in the coming days and whether they will hold as support. There are plenty of catalysts right now with earnings season kicking off, the presidential inauguration approaching, and options expiration this week as well, so it will be interesting to see which way things go.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SWwZq4eGWBI/AAAAAAAAB1E/nuReQS1X3lg/s400/qqqq.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

We lost 500K jobs, yippee! Posted by downtowntrader | 1/09/2009 09:32:00 AM | 0 comments »

This morning the jobs report came in at -524K jobs and it seems like some were relieved it wasn't higher. While it is good news that it wasn't 600 or 800K, the fact is that the economy has lost a lot of jobs over the past few months. Some were expecting a rally if the number was low enough, but I think the markets are ripe for a deeper pullback. I don't think a we are headed for a low retest yet, but several indicators are telling me things are overheated. We could see a move back to the 50 ma on the Nasdaq and Russell, were the markets should find support. This doesn't mean I will buy there, but it's a logical place for support. In short, it's probably not a good time to be pressing the action, but I'm leaning a little short on financials and miners. I'm still open to a bullish scenario unfolding into the inauguration or even beyond, but I would prefer lower prices before positioning myself more aggressively.

Good Trading,

Joey

Investopedia Articles Posted by downtowntrader | 1/06/2009 11:05:00 PM | 1 comments »

I should be writing articles for Investopedia.com almost nightly for the near future so I will try and post links as I get them. Below are the articles I've written to date beginning with the older ones.

[*]Location and Candlesticks[*]Trading a partial retrace[*]Buying Fear[*]Multiple Timeframes can Multiply Returns[*]Retail Sector Hits Resistance[*]4 Base and Break Stocks[*]Don't step in the Bear trap[*]Is there anything going up in this market[*]Stock Health Slides for Medical Appliance Companies[*]Have Construction Stocks hit bottom[*]Are Indicator Divergences Signaling a bounce in tech stocks[*]Bullish Flag Formation Signaling a move higher[*]Are Gold Stocks Pulling BackEnjoy,

Joey

Quick Update Posted by downtowntrader | 1/05/2009 11:09:00 PM | 0 comments »

I guess today can only be called a consolidation day. No follow through to either side although bulls have to feel good about not giving up too much ground. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

I will be writing more articles from Investopedia.com and I will try and post links to each here on the blog. Here is an article on Bull Flags.

Also, I saw on Trade-Ideas twitter page that they are upgrading Oddsmaker to 30 days worth of backtesting vs 15. This is a very nice development as it now lets you backtest a full month. They also added some additional parameters for testing exits several days after entry. This opens up several swing trading opportunities in a product that I have been using strictly for intraday strategies. Kudos to the Trade-Ideas team for adding these changes.

Good Trading,

Joey

Happy New Years! Posted by downtowntrader | 1/04/2009 09:47:00 PM | 4 comments »

Happy New Years to everyone! 2008 was an interesting year to say the least and while there were certainly plenty of opportunities it was also a very difficult environment at times. I ended up having my best year to date and one of the keys was acknowledging what the markets were telling me and altering my approach as an adjustment. For instance it was quite apparent early in the year that volatility was coming back and that it was important to account for that with my position sizing. Also, the second half of the year often saw daily gaps in the indexes of over 1% in either direction, and made for a difficult swing trading environment.

I didn't change my setups for the most part, I just focused on using the ones that were still working. Also, towards the last quarter of the year, I dramatically shortened my holding periods to intraday only and small position overnight trades. Even the overnight trades were typically bought late in the afternoon and sold the next day. This allowed me to keep my exposure to a minimum and still be exposed to the increased volatility.

This year promises to be pretty interesting as well, as there is no doubt that the markets are not past the volatility and fear that has been prevalent. The markets kicked off the New Year with a bang on the opening day, and there is optimism that it will carry over. While I am neutral on the near term, the markets are starting to get overbought. While it doesn't "feel" like the recent rally has been that strong, I was surprised to see that most of the indexes are up 20% from the November lows to Fridays close. Also, T2108 (Wordens Indicator measuring Stocks above their 40 day MA) is shockingly over 80%. This really caught me by surprise as it wasn't that long ago (October) that I wrote about this indicator hitting the 1% level. Here is a chart showing T2108.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SWF5t8-qTKI/AAAAAAAAB08/2_67Nyz_tlM/s400/t2108.JPG

Notice how it rarely stays over 80% for long. While this isn't necessarily a predictor for a market correction, it does provide a pretty reliable indication that the markets are getting a little unsustainable. What could and often does happen is that the markets continue to rise a little more on decreased participation until it eventually corrects. In this case, it could very well signal the resumption of the overall down trend.

This really is an interesting time, as there is conflicting evidence on the longer timeframes. While the markets have shown fear levels and other technical watermarks that have coincided with previous Bear market bottoms, there is also the threat (and evidence) that this Bear market has only just begun. While I won't pretend to know what is ultimately coming, I feel quite certain that we will have at least one sharp pullback in the next month. We may rally into the Obama inauguration, or we may sell off tomorrow, but I don't think that the fear that has been prevalent over the past year can be washed away with a one month rally. Maybe it can, but I won't gamble with it which is why I trail my stops.

Good Luck and Trading in 2009,

Joey

Christmas Vacation Posted by downtowntrader | 12/22/2008 09:00:00 PM | 0 comments »

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SVBISxbgSmI/AAAAAAAAB00/Zy0VnnDhGgA/s200/christmas_vacation.jpg
I will taking a break from blogging through the end of the year. I may post intermittently, but will more then likely just be posting thoughts on twitter. I wish everyone a Happy and Safe Holiday season.

Joey

Attack of the Trading Robot Posted by downtowntrader | 12/18/2008 08:51:00 PM | 0 comments »

The folks at Trade-Ideas have recently released an onslaught of videos showing their trading robot (jointly developed by stocktickr.com) in action, and it's sparked some interest in automated trading. The videos are great, and they do a good job of showing what is possible with the use of a trading robot. Dave Mabe of stocktickr.com has also been writing recently on automated trading and has some great posts on his blog. As many of my regular readers know, I've been running the bot for a few months now. Recently, I've received a few emails asking several questions including;

[*]Are the results real?[*]Does it ever blow up and have a really bad day?[*]Is your automated system profitable too?[*]How long did it take to develop your system?[*]Could you just use trade-ideas and trade the alerts manually?[*]Do you intervene with your system?[*]Can you use the canned alerts that come with Trade-Ideas?
First of all, I have no doubt the results posted by Trade-Ideas are real. If you take the time to properly develop, back test, and then forward test a system, there is no reason it wouldn't perform consistently moving forward.

So how do you develop, back test, and forward test a system? The first step is finding a suitable alert and filter combination from the Trade-Ideas suite. The way I handle this is to think of a market behavior I want to take advantage of, and then recreate it with the alerts available to me. I then back test it using oddsmaker, which will let me know if it is a profitable idea over the past 14 sessions. I use the back testing feature to act as a filter on whether a system is worth pursuing. However, I've never felt comfortable relying on strictly back testing, so I then I forward test it by running it with the paper trading feature of Interactive Brokers. I closely examine slippage, stop performance, influence by time of day etc., during the forward testing period. Another often overlooked, but important part of forward testing is watching how the system trades through different market environments.

Does it blowup. I've never had the robot blow up using real money. I've had pretty spectacular blowups while forward testing, but luckily by combining back testing with forward testing, many issues are avoided.

Is it profitable? Yes. As mentioned above, if a system can graduate from the forward testing phase, it means it is profitable.

How long did it take? Developing the system doesn't take too long once you have created a few. If you have a good idea, creating and back testing it can all be done pretty quickly. I like to forward test for at least one month and preferably two or three months.

Here is a chart created by stocktickr.com that shows the results for one of the strategies I have developed for the robot. It shows the cumulative R's for the system from the forward testing stage to the current date. This is a long only, momentum based strategy. What I like best about this system, is that despite the long bias, it has been very consistent at avoiding draw downs. It has taken very few trades during the recent obliteration of the markets (needing almost three months to net 10R's), but it hasn't lost money and I have other short systems that take better advantage of weak markets. I think the chart shows that even in this environment, positive results can be achieved with proper development of an automated system.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SUsOIFcl_lI/AAAAAAAAB0s/JbaIO1cyZSc/s400/results.JPG
Could you trade the alerts manually? Yes, in theory you could. In practice, not so much. Looking past the often discussed benefits of trading an automated system vs. a discretionary one, I find that the robot can trade systems that would be near impossible to trade manually. One of the advantages of using a robot is that it can act at lightning speeds and dissect huge amounts of data. It can enter several orders at a time and eliminates human errors on placing those orders. And I can attest to how fast the bot reacts to an alert and gets the order in well before you could manually.

Do you intervene with the system? While I have and won't rule out intervening, I don't do it that often. I've found that while you can step in and save some money at times, in the end it evens out with the times you exit early. However, since the systems have been extensively tested, I do have a feel for what market environments cause under performance, and I have no qualms with stepping in and flattening out.

Can you use the alerts that come bundled with Trade-Ideas? Yes you could, but I wouldn't recommend it. From my experience, most of the prepackaged alerts are a little noisy and would need a large amount of trading capital to use. However, they do have an extensive list for which you can base your ideas on.

Another benefit to trading a robot like this is for traders that have a non trading job or that have to be away from their trading screens, yet desire the safety of ending flat each day. You can create strategies for any part of the trading session and trade part time. I have systems that trade only the first 15 minutes and others that won't take a trade until 10:00am EST. The beauty is that you can create something that works around your schedule and can be as active as you want it to be.

If you're interested in learning more about Trade-Ideas, feel free to contact info@trade-ideas.com . Tell them I sent you and ask about a 7 day demo.

You can also find out more about the robot I use and stocktickr here.

Joey

Post Fed Rally Posted by downtowntrader | 12/16/2008 10:33:00 PM | 0 comments »

The markets reacted well to the Feds aggressive actions, extending on early gains. While I've been bullish for a while now, I can't help reminding myself that we are in a bear market and every rally is guilty until proven innocent. While there is certainly the possibility for more upside, the markets have also risen enough to meet the standards for a typical retracement. Most of the indexes are testing their declining 50 day moving averages as well as retracing 61.8% of the last leg down. However, there are some positive factors as well. First of all most of the indexes closed above their 50's after consolidating bullishly under the moving averages for a few sessions. Second, most of the indexes have had shorter moving average such as the 10 day cross over the 20 day. While this is not a magical clue that we are headed higher, it does reveal that the vicious downtrend from the past few months has slowed considerably. Third is the fact that all of this has occurred in the face of pretty bad economic data. While the markets tend to look forward, there is nothing in the current data suggesting an economic turnaround, so the fact that the markets are shrugging it off is bullish.

We are at an important crossroads, because there is the real potential for a large move to either direction right now. While a large bet in either direction can pay off handsomely, it could also be a disaster if you get caught in a reversal. There are plenty of landmines coming up such as options expiration and the pending auto bailout, so don't marry any position long or short.

Trade Carefully,

Joey

Stock Chart AAPL Posted by downtowntrader | 12/09/2008 11:49:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AAPL

Apple Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

AAPL has been tracing out an interesting pattern recently. It corrected this year along with the markets, and while the correction has been pretty steep, it is no worse then what the majority of stocks suffered through in this environment. It started to consolidate in a triangle in October and ended up breaking out of it lower in November. After a measured move lower, it now looks to be setting up for a potential double bottom. It recently reclaimed the 20 and 50 day moving averages, and could be close to attempting a break of the neckline shown in red.

While AAPL could break out as soon as tomorrow, I think a few days of tight trading would help to digest the recent runup. AAPL is oversold on stochastics and volume has been light, so a word of caution is definitely worth mentioning. I am basically neutral at this point, but I think the move will be large once it clears either side of this pattern.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/ST9LASpYv9I/AAAAAAAAB0k/f5TatqG4UQY/s400/aapl.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Market Thoughts Posted by downtowntrader | 12/07/2008 09:03:00 PM | 0 comments »

The markets reversed off their lows Friday confirming the 61.8% retrace of the last swing high as support.

Some of the swings I have seen recently in the leveraged ETFs are insane. SKF for instance had over a 70 point range in ONE day recently.

T2108, the Worden indicator for stocks trading over their 40 day MA's just pushed back over the oversold level of 20%.

It's been well under 20% for the better part of three months, which is the longest since the 1990 bottom and longer then the period surrounding the October 87 crash.

Financials had every opportunity to fall apart late last week, and instead led the markets higher.

The way MOS reversed off it's earnings and guidance and then followed up with a reversal Friday, leads me to believe it is bottoming. The rest of the sector continues to look weak, but then again, so has just about everything.

For those that haven't been paying attention to intermarket relationships, the markets are basically trading inverse to the dollar right now. When money seeks the safety of T-Bills, it isn't going into stocks. Keep an eye on TLT, which happens to be quite extended.

Gold however, has been notably absent from the flight to safety trade.

While I'm shocked at the reversals in Crude and Natural Gas, I've always suspected that market reversals would be magnified now with the sharp increase in hedge funds.

Good Trading,

Joey

Some strong stocks Posted by downtowntrader | 12/05/2008 09:03:00 AM | 0 comments »

Here is another article I wrote for Investopedia on stocks making 52 week highs, even while stuck in this terrible market.

Joey

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:53

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:54

Joey

Stock Chart QQQQ Posted by downtowntrader | 1/12/2009 11:30:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis QQQQ

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF)(Public, NASDAQ:QQQQ)

I decided to analyze the Q's tonight, because the markets are at a critical juncture right now. I mentioned in a previous post how I felt the markets were becoming overbought, after rallying for the better part of a month following the November lows. The markets have since been pulling back and are at or close to some levels of support. I have highlighted several areas of interest on the chart below showing how I see the price action. Overall, QQQQ has been trading in a descending broadening wedge, which is neither bullish nor bearish. It is simply a consolidation pattern.

The Q's fell out of a small bearish rising wedge a few weeks ago which led to a small pullback and was then followed by new highs. It can also be classified as trading within a trading channel (shown in red). Price never made it to the upper range of the channel on the last high, and was followed by a break of the channel. The break occured with a bearish cross on slow stochastics, and MACD is also close to confirming the move lower. These are all bearish signs, showing current weakness in the Q's.

However, the Q's are also approaching some support levels and most of the recent price action has been on muted volume. The key will be how the Q's handle these levels in the coming days and whether they will hold as support. There are plenty of catalysts right now with earnings season kicking off, the presidential inauguration approaching, and options expiration this week as well, so it will be interesting to see which way things go.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SWwZq4eGWBI/AAAAAAAAB1E/nuReQS1X3lg/s400/qqqq.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

We lost 500K jobs, yippee! Posted by downtowntrader | 1/09/2009 09:32:00 AM | 0 comments »

This morning the jobs report came in at -524K jobs and it seems like some were relieved it wasn't higher. While it is good news that it wasn't 600 or 800K, the fact is that the economy has lost a lot of jobs over the past few months. Some were expecting a rally if the number was low enough, but I think the markets are ripe for a deeper pullback. I don't think a we are headed for a low retest yet, but several indicators are telling me things are overheated. We could see a move back to the 50 ma on the Nasdaq and Russell, were the markets should find support. This doesn't mean I will buy there, but it's a logical place for support. In short, it's probably not a good time to be pressing the action, but I'm leaning a little short on financials and miners. I'm still open to a bullish scenario unfolding into the inauguration or even beyond, but I would prefer lower prices before positioning myself more aggressively.

Good Trading,

Good Trading,

Joey

Happy New Years! Posted by downtowntrader | 1/04/2009 09:47:00 PM | 4 comments »

Happy New Years to everyone! 2008 was an interesting year to say the least and while there were certainly plenty of opportunities it was also a very difficult environment at times. I ended up having my best year to date and one of the keys was acknowledging what the markets were telling me and altering my approach as an adjustment. For instance it was quite apparent early in the year that volatility was coming back and that it was important to account for that with my position sizing. Also, the second half of the year often saw daily gaps in the indexes of over 1% in either direction, and made for a difficult swing trading environment.

I didn't change my setups for the most part, I just focused on using the ones that were still working. Also, towards the last quarter of the year, I dramatically shortened my holding periods to intraday only and small position overnight trades. Even the overnight trades were typically bought late in the afternoon and sold the next day. This allowed me to keep my exposure to a minimum and still be exposed to the increased volatility.

This year promises to be pretty interesting as well, as there is no doubt that the markets are not past the volatility and fear that has been prevalent. The markets kicked off the New Year with a bang on the opening day, and there is optimism that it will carry over. While I am neutral on the near term, the markets are starting to get overbought. While it doesn't "feel" like the recent rally has been that strong, I was surprised to see that most of the indexes are up 20% from the November lows to Fridays close. Also, T2108 (Wordens Indicator measuring Stocks above their 40 day MA) is shockingly over 80%. This really caught me by surprise as it wasn't that long ago (October) that I wrote about this indicator hitting the 1% level. Here is a chart showing T2108.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SWF5t8-qTKI/AAAAAAAAB08/2_67Nyz_tlM/s400/t2108.JPG

Notice how it rarely stays over 80% for long. While this isn't necessarily a predictor for a market correction, it does provide a pretty reliable indication that the markets are getting a little unsustainable. What could and often does happen is that the markets continue to rise a little more on decreased participation until it eventually corrects. In this case, it could very well signal the resumption of the overall down trend.

This really is an interesting time, as there is conflicting evidence on the longer timeframes. While the markets have shown fear levels and other technical watermarks that have coincided with previous Bear market bottoms, there is also the threat (and evidence) that this Bear market has only just begun. While I won't pretend to know what is ultimately coming, I feel quite certain that we will have at least one sharp pullback in the next month. We may rally into the Obama inauguration, or we may sell off tomorrow, but I don't think that the fear that has been prevalent over the past year can be washed away with a one month rally. Maybe it can, but I won't gamble with it which is why I trail my stops.

Good Luck and Trading in 2009,

Joey

Christmas Vacation Posted by downtowntrader | 12/22/2008 09:00:00 PM | 0 comments »

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SVBISxbgSmI/AAAAAAAAB00/Zy0VnnDhGgA/s200/christmas_vacation.jpg
I will taking a break from blogging through the end of the year. I may post intermittently, but will more then likely just be posting thoughts on everyone a Happy and Safe Holiday season.

Joey

Attack of the Trading Robot Posted by downtowntrader | 12/18/2008 08:51:00 PM | 0 comments »

The folks at Trade-Ideas have recently released an has some great posts on his blog. As many of my regular readers know, I've been running the bot for a few months now. Recently, I've received a few emails asking several questions including;

[*]Are the results real?[*]Does it ever blow up and have a really bad day?[*]Is your automated system profitable too?[*]How long did it take to develop your system?[*]Could you just use trade-ideas and trade the alerts manually?[*]Do you intervene with your system?[*]Can you use the canned alerts that come with Trade-Ideas?
First of all, I have no doubt the results posted by Trade-Ideas are real. If you take the time to properly develop, back test, and then forward test a system, there is no reason it wouldn't perform consistently moving forward.

So how do you develop, back test, and forward test a system? The first step is finding a suitable alert and filter combination from the Trade-Ideas suite. The way I handle this is to think of a market behavior I want to take advantage of, and then recreate it with the alerts available to me. I then back test it using oddsmaker, which will let me know if it is a profitable idea over the past 14 sessions. I use the back testing feature to act as a filter on whether a system is worth pursuing. However, I've never felt comfortable relying on strictly back testing, so I then I forward test it by running it with the paper trading feature of Interactive Brokers. I closely examine slippage, stop performance, influence by time of day etc., during the forward testing period. Another often overlooked, but important part of forward testing is watching how the system trades through different market environments.

Does it blowup. I've never had the robot blow up using real money. I've had pretty spectacular blowups while forward testing, but luckily by combining back testing with forward testing, many issues are avoided.

Is it profitable? Yes. As mentioned above, if a system can graduate from the forward testing phase, it means it is profitable.

How long did it take? Developing the system doesn't take too long once you have created a few. If you have a good idea, creating and back testing it can all be done pretty quickly. I like to forward test for at least one month and preferably two or three months.

Here is a chart created bythe results for one of the strategies I have developed for the robot. It shows the cumulative R's for the system from the forward testing stage to the current date. This is a long only, momentum based strategy. What I like best about this system, is that despite the long bias, it has been very consistent at avoiding draw downs. It has taken very few trades during the recent obliteration of the markets (needing almost three months to net 10R's), but it hasn't lost money and I have other short systems that take better advantage of weak markets. I think the chart shows that even in this environment, positive results can be achieved with proper development of an automated system.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SUsOIFcl_lI/AAAAAAAAB0s/JbaIO1cyZSc/s400/results.JPG
Could you trade the alerts manually? Yes, in theory you could. In practice, not so much. Looking past the often discussed benefits of trading an automated system vs. a discretionary one, I find that the robot can trade systems that would be near impossible to trade manually. One of the advantages of using a robot is that it can act at lightning speeds and dissect huge amounts of data. It can enter several orders at a time and eliminates human errors on placing those orders. And I can attest to how fast the bot reacts to an alert and gets the order in well before you could manually.

Do you intervene with the system? While I have and won't rule out intervening, I don't do it that often. I've found that while you can step in and save some money at times, in the end it evens out with the times you exit early. However, since the systems have been extensively tested, I do have a feel for what market environments cause under performance, and I have no qualms with stepping in and flattening out.

Can you use the alerts that come bundled with Trade-Ideas? Yes you could, but I wouldn't recommend it. From my experience, most of the prepackaged alerts are a little noisy and would need a large amount of trading capital to use. However, they do have an extensive list for which you can base your ideas on.

Another benefit to trading a robot like this is for traders that have a non trading job or that have to be away from their trading screens, yet desire the safety of ending flat each day. You can create strategies for any part of the trading session and trade part time. I have systems that trade only the first 15 minutes and others that won't take a trade until 10:00am EST. The beauty is that you can create something that works around your schedule and can be as active as you want it to be.

If you're interested in learning more about Trade-Ideas, feel free to contact info@trade-ideas.com . Tell them I sent you and ask about a 7 day demo.

Joey

Post Fed Rally Posted by downtowntrader | 12/16/2008 10:33:00 PM | 0 comments »

The markets reacted well to the Feds aggressive actions, extending on early gains. While I've been bullish for a while now, I can't help reminding myself that we are in a bear market and every rally is guilty until proven innocent. While there is certainly the possibility for more upside, the markets have also risen enough to meet the standards for a typical retracement. Most of the indexes are testing their declining 50 day moving averages as well as retracing 61.8% of the last leg down. However, there are some positive factors as well. First of all most of the indexes closed above their 50's after consolidating bullishly under the moving averages for a few sessions. Second, most of the indexes have had shorter moving average such as the 10 day cross over the 20 day. While this is not a magical clue that we are headed higher, it does reveal that the vicious downtrend from the past few months has slowed considerably. Third is the fact that all of this has occurred in the face of pretty bad economic data. While the markets tend to look forward, there is nothing in the current data suggesting an economic turnaround, so the fact that the markets are shrugging it off is bullish.

We are at an important crossroads, because there is the real potential for a large move to either direction right now. While a large bet in either direction can pay off handsomely, it could also be a disaster if you get caught in a reversal. There are plenty of landmines coming up such as options expiration and the pending auto bailout, so don't marry any position long or short.

Trade Carefully,

Joey

Stock Chart AAPL Posted by downtowntrader | 12/09/2008 11:49:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AAPL

Apple Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

AAPL has been tracing out an interesting pattern recently. It corrected this year along with the markets, and while the correction has been pretty steep, it is no worse then what the majority of stocks suffered through in this environment. It started to consolidate in a triangle in October and ended up breaking out of it lower in November. After a measured move lower, it now looks to be setting up for a potential double bottom. It recently reclaimed the 20 and 50 day moving averages, and could be close to attempting a break of the neckline shown in red.

While AAPL could break out as soon as tomorrow, I think a few days of tight trading would help to digest the recent runup. AAPL is oversold on stochastics and volume has been light, so a word of caution is definitely worth mentioning. I am basically neutral at this point, but I think the move will be large once it clears either side of this pattern.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/ST9LASpYv9I/AAAAAAAAB0k/f5TatqG4UQY/s400/aapl.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:56

Bear Trap in Oil Stocks? Posted by downtowntrader | 12/03/2008 10:34:00 AM | 0 comments »

I wrote an article for Investopedia on a possible bear trap developing in oil stocks. Oil stocks have been weak since I wrote it, but the bear trap isn't failed yet either. It could go either way, so if you trade any of these names, do it carefully.

Joey

Stock Chart DUG Posted by downtowntrader | 11/30/2008 06:46:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DUG

ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (ETF)(Public, NYSE:DUG)

It appears to me that a Bear trap is being set in Oil stock. Many stocks recently broke down from valid chart patterns and rebounded back into those patterns. I wrote an article for Investopedia this weekend highlighting a few stocks setting up for a possible short squeeze, so as soon as it's published I will link it up.

However, I did want to post on a pattern I am seeing in the ProShares Ultrashort Oil and Gas ETF (NYSE:DUG). While Oil stocks have been absolutely crushed over the past few months, it appears that they may be ready to bounce soon. While fundamentals don't suggest a true bottom in the oil sector, the charts are at least signaling the potential for a sharp bounce higher.

DUG has traced out a very choppy Head and Shoulders top over the past three months. While it doesn't fit the typical top, DUG did hit all time highs in this pattern. It also has setup so that the neckline coincides almost perfectly with the 200 day sma for the chart. It broke the neckline at $34.50 a few sessions ago, and it looks like it would be pretty stiff resistance on a bounce back higher. Of course, being an inverse ETF, it appears the DUG is portending higher prices for oil stocks in the near term. While DUG has only been around a couple of years, it should be interesting to see what happens if DUG trades to new all time lows.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/STMnBzK5UMI/AAAAAAAAB0U/HGnstYH2Ec0/s400/dug.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Double Bottom in FLR Posted by downtowntrader | 11/27/2008 10:10:00 PM | 4 comments »

I wrote an article for Investopedia regarding a double bottom in some construction / machinery stocks. I mentioned CAT,DE,FLR and CNH. I should be writing a lot more of these in the near future, so if anyone has ideas they would like me to look at, drop me a comment.

Joey

Videos of Trading Robot Posted by downtowntrader | 11/26/2008 09:42:00 AM | 2 comments »

Dave at Stocktickr posted a link to some videos the Trade-Ideas team created showing the trading bot I use in action. I think it does a pretty good job of showing how the bot works and gives you a glimpse into the possibilities one could create with a little work. Also, both Stocktickr and Trade-Ideas are great companies to deal with and they won't leave you out to dry like many of the other companies out there. Great Job on developing this together guys!

Joey

MACD Divergence Article Posted by downtowntrader | 11/25/2008 03:35:00 PM | 0 comments »

For those interested here is an article I wrote over the weekend regarding MACD divergences in some tech stocks for Investopedia.com.

Interesting Week Posted by downtowntrader | 11/23/2008 11:07:00 PM | 0 comments »

This should be an interesting holiday week. Citibank is at the forefront with all weekend meetings going on to decide what to do to protect them. We also have Obama announcing his financial team tomorrow and also announcing some details to a stimulus package geared towards creating jobs. I think this is a good approach by the president elect as it tackles the issue of deteriorating infrastructure and the increasing unemployment rate. I just don't know how any of this is possible without a tax increase, other then cutting back on war spending dramatically.

Another interesting cross current this week will be foot traffic at the retail outlets. Everyone will be analyzing who is shopping where and how much people are spending to attempt and gauge how bad the holiday shopping season will really be.

And don't forget the automakers begging for money.

In short, there is a plethora of market moving news this week, in spite of the shortened week, so tread carefully out there.

Good Trading,

Joey

Nice Reversal today Posted by downtowntrader | 11/13/2008 10:56:00 PM | 2 comments »

The markets had a heck of a reversal today after dipping to new lows. This has the classic signs of a bear trap, as the markets looked like they were breaking down and then reversed to trap anyone shorting into the thrust lower. Some of the most powerful moves come from these failed patterns, so it will be interesting to see what transpires over the next few days.

I'm going to be in New York tomorrow through early next week, so there will be no posts or charts. While all the signals are here for a strong push higher, you never know what the markets have in store. A lot of people think today was the low, and the markets have a funny way of proving the majority wrong. Manage your risk and be ready for anything the markets throw at you.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart ALXN Posted by downtowntrader | 11/09/2008 11:03:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis ALXN

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ALXN)

Drug stocks have been outperforming recently, and many look like they may be ready to surge higher. ALXN is one that has held up very well throughout the recent turmoil in the markets. It is very close to confirming a double bottom off it's 200 day sma which would yield a target of $50 on a breakout. It would need to get over $43 in order to confirm the double bottom, but it could also in theory be bought here as it is bouncing off the 20 day sma. There are actually a few different ways to play this chart, but the bottom line is that it is bullish looking on all timeframes in my opinion.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SRezb8kiZ9I/AAAAAAAAB0M/2HRB2Z6414s/s400/alxn.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Obama Wins? Posted by downtowntrader | 11/04/2008 10:32:00 PM | 0 comments »

It sure looks like Obama will win tonight, but of course that shouldn't really surprise anyone. The bookies had it heavily in his favor, which makes it damn near a lock. The markets are getting a little ahead of themselves and are close to if not already tagging their upper bollinger bands. I am expecting a pullback in the next day or two and thus took a lot off the table today. Maybe the markets gap up tomorrow (futures are modestly higher) and run higher, but the risks are starting to outweigh the rewards in the short term. On the other hand, it looks like the dollar is finally ready to take a breather and this should really give a boost to commodities. Miners have been bouncing for a few days in anticipation of this and I think we will probably see gold and silver get a bounce. Oil has started to look interesting too, but some of the service stocks may not follow suit with an Obama victory.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart GXDX Posted by downtowntrader | 11/02/2008 09:04:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GXDX

Genoptix, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GXDX)

Regular readers of my blog know that I love stocks trading close to all time highs. While GXDX is a fairly recent IPO, it has found solid buying recently, despite the turmoil in the markets. It has found solid support at the 200 sma over the past month and appears to be headed towards a test of the high 30's. However, this doesn't mean I will rush out and buy it tomorrow morning. Often, when I find a chart like this one that looks like it is headed for a retest and possible breakout, I try and buy closer to it's 20sma, in hopes that it will use that average as support moving forward. This allows for a tighter stop loss, and improves the odds of a winning trade. There is always the chance of missing out on the trade, but chance are that it will retrace at least a portion of the 15-20% + move from the past few sessions. The ideal scenario would be a pull back to the 20sma and a solid reversal on intraday charts, or even the daily charts. Let's see if that opportunity presents itself over the next day or two. As a warning for readers, GXDX reports earnings on 11/6, or Thursday. This may make this a tricky trade, as it may not move till after the release.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SQ5cnNNohAI/AAAAAAAAB0A/gcJPnfGIriA/s400/gxdx.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart DLTR Posted by downtowntrader | 10/28/2008 10:16:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DLTR

Dollar Tree, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DLTR)

Wow, I actually found a chart that looks decent. DLTR, and the other dollar stores like NDN and FDO for that matter have held up fairly well throughout the recent crash. They all look like they want to challenge their recent highs and if the markets rally like I suspect they will, then they should accomplish the feat. DLTR looks like it has very good support at 31 and it appears that it cleared the channel it has been using to pullback. It looks like this is an obvious play in a recessionary environment as consumers look to save money, and maybe this is the gameplan for institutional money flowing into this group. While it is extended from the lows, I'm not sure how deep a pullback it will give, so I will probably look to intraday charts for a possible entry. I typically use 60 minute charts for possible entries on swing plays, so a pullback into the 20ma is a possible area for an entry.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SQfH_rvgx6I/AAAAAAAABz4/uKDpyFRbK1w/s400/dltr.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Busy Busy Busy Posted by downtowntrader | 10/22/2008 08:43:00 PM | 0 comments »

I've been swamped with some new responsibilities at work recently, which in combination with the recent market conditions has left little for me to blog about. While the intraday action has been quite good, swing trading is still quite dangerous. I've been basically picking my spots and daytrading QLD, while letting my trading robot take some trades. The markets are trading in triangles on the 60 minute charts and while it's not a forgone conclusion, they are looking like they will have downside breakouts. The markets are pretty oversold, and while they may plunge lower, I still think we are closer to making a low then beginning a new trend lower. However, now is not the time to be making silly bets or gambling, the best thing to do is wait for the intraday charts to line up with a bounce on the daily charts. We'll see how it plays out over the next few days.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart AFAM Posted by downtowntrader | 10/16/2008 08:50:00 PM | 3 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AFAM

Almost Family, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AFAM)

I wrote a post on AFAM a few weeks ago as a stock that has held up well through the recent carnage. Although I didn't buy it last time, I have kept it on my watchlist. While I have altered my lines a bit, I am still thinking of the price action as a consolidation rather than a top. While AFAM did move lower from my last post, it has still held up fairly well considering the market conditions, and could of cemented support in the low 30's today. While it may not be ready to assault it's all time highs in a few days, the price action remains constructive, and I would think that it will ultimately resume the uptrend. My preference would be for a couple of days of tight trading in order to build some fuel for a push above resistance. But, who knows, this is one of the very few stocks I have on a buy watch.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SPfhn3btZxI/AAAAAAAABTQ/BmvEusDJVb8/s400/afam.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Environmental Issues Posted by downtowntrader | 10/14/2008 08:56:00 PM | 0 comments »

The current trading environment is still not very friendly for swing trading, which is the major reason why you are not seeing as many charts as usual on my blog. There are tons of intraday opportunities, but there is still a lot of risk holding overnight or longer. While Friday / Monday held plenty of oversold snapback plays, we are back in a no man's land of sorts here, caught between the low as support, and all sorts of resistance above. Today's gap fade was about as easy a call as there is. After the strong move on Monday, it was very unlikely that the markets would continue rallying after the gap. If I was a betting man, I would guess that the markets begin trading in more of a range here, as volatility finally dies down a bit. Buyers will more then likely step in on any probe of the recent lows, and sellers will step in at about Dow 10,500+/-500. I am still in daytrading mode, and playing the ETF's for 2-3 day scalps, and probably won't stray from that until things improve on the daily charts. As soon as I see some low risk charts, I will resume posting them. Until then you are saddled with my boring commentary ;-)

Good Trading,

Joey

Mystery Chart Posted by downtowntrader | 10/09/2008 08:49:00 PM | 0 comments »

Let me go over some numbers before I reveal the two mystery charts below.

[*]The first chart has a two bar drop of 26%.[*]The second chart has a two bar drop of 33%.[*]The two bars in the first chart occurred under the 20 and 200SMA (red and pink).[*]The two bars in the second chart began above the 20 and 200SMA (red and pink).[*]The first chart shows panic selling well after a top (over 20% from the last high).[*]The second chart shows panic selling just after making a new high.The reason I highlight where these drops occurred is to show that panic selling can appear in both bull and bear markets. Usually, panic selling results in a major low once the selling subsides. The first chart is of a current issue after todays selling. The second chart is a historical one that went on to drop marginally lower before bouncing sharply. It did however, revisit the lows very soon thereafter before successfully marking a major bottom. What am I charting here? (see below)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SO6mn2zL3qI/AAAAAAAABTA/-6IVt0QzaeY/s400/chart.JPG
The first chart is a weekly chart showing the SP-500 over the past few months. The second chart is also a weekly view of the SP-500 showing the crash in October 1987. While most of the damage to the second chart happened on "Black Monday", the end results of both are very similar. In fact, tomorrow may push the first chart even lower. I hate to speculate on how this will look a week from now, but I would think that there will be a much stronger capitulation since this powerful push lower is occurring after months of selling, rather then catching people off guard.

Let's see how the week ends tomorrow, but it looks like we will be off to a negative start in the morning (Down 2% in overnight futures).

Joey

Free Falling Posted by downtowntrader | 10/08/2008 09:10:00 PM | 0 comments »

The markets continue to drop, and the more they drop, the more bullish I am feeling. Worden's T2108 indicator which tracks stocks trading above their 40 day sma is currently at 1.97. This means that only 1.97% of stocks are trading above their 40 day sma's. That is absurdly low, and we have to go back to the 1987 crash to find levels this low. Notice that this indicator making lows that weren't seen during the nasty bear market that followed the Internet Bubble. I don't want to make too much of one indicator, but this has been a reliable indicator for me in terms of warning me that the markets are oversold on an intermediate level. Under 20 is the level I look for and it has been under 20 for the better part of the last month. Under 10% is pretty rare, and it has only been under 5% in 1987 and now. Again, we are at historic lows for this indicator and while it doesn't signal an all clear for buying, I think shorting here is suicidal.

Below is a weekly chart for the T2108 indicator going back to 1986 when it started being tracked. I overlayed a line chart of the SP-500 as well. Notice how rare moves under 10 are and the moves in the SP-500 that generally follow.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SO1eRLzkh4I/AAAAAAAABS4/JrQN6ofpcgU/s400/t2108.JPG

It's too early to call a bottom here, but I'm fairly confident we are close to one.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart KRE Posted by downtowntrader | 10/06/2008 09:41:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis KRE

SPDR KBW Regional Banking (ETF) (Public, AMEX:KRE)

Wow, I finally have a chart to post. I've been looking for capitulation in the markets before putting some money to work on some swing trades, and today may of marked the low for the current leg down. Most charts are complete disasters right now, so there isn't much to get too enthusiastic about. Also, in the current environment, any negative news is absolutely crushing individual stocks. For both of these reasons, I feel more comfortable sticking with ETF's.

Tonight's chart is KRE, which is an ETF covering Regional Banks. Many regional banks such as BB&T have been doing quite well, and have kept the most of the financial indexes from making new lows in spite of the disasters in LEH, WM, and WCB.

KRE has been making higher highs and lows over the past few months, and just recently challenged it's 200 day sma. I highlighted the interaction with the 200 sma on the chart below. Notice how the 200 day sma repealed it a couple times, before KRE was able to clear it. Once it cleared the average, it came back and confirmed it as support. The breakout stalled and it's now back for another retest of support. It has found buying in this area over the past week, and could be ready for a move to the upside. I much prefer to take a shot on something like this that has shown strength, then trying to cherry pick a bottom in a crashing individual stock.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SOrAgFcmDUI/AAAAAAAABSw/Le__KCbVFIQ/s400/kre.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Bear Trap being set? Posted by downtowntrader | 10/02/2008 08:58:00 PM | 0 comments »

The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 made new lows today, breaking under the lows set Monday. Todays volume was much lower then Mondays and we are setting up for a possible bear trap. It seems that most of the ingredients are here for an important bottom. Fear is through the roof. The fear based indicators such as VIX are spiking higher. The impending doom of our financial markets is being broadcast on every channel, and every Joe Schmoe on the street is debating how we got here and who is responsible. We've also had other clues as to where we are from a cycle standpoint as well. If you pay attention to how sectors are rotating you will notice that late cycle sectors like Agriculture stocks have been getting creamed. And has anyone noticed that the financials as a whole are not making lower lows inspite of the fact that the news couldn't be any worse.

Ideally, we would have another plunge followed by a snap reversal to trap the bears, but there are no guarantees that the market doesn't crash either. Maybe we are on the brink of financial armageddon. The truth is we won't know until it's in the rear view mirror, so the best we can do is wait patiently to pounce on the rebound. I am getting excited because I think we are gonna have a heck of a rally coming soon. We only get a few scenarios like this where everyone is caught leaning heavily to one side of the market, and when it reverses it catches most people off guard. The key as I've mentioned before is to not get too cute and try to get in early. And once we bounce, we can't assume we have the bottom either. Thats why we set our stops accordingly.

Good Trading,

Joey

Tough time to swing trade Posted by downtowntrader | 9/30/2008 09:15:00 PM | 0 comments »

The past week and a half has been a tricky time to swing trade (at least for my style) as we are getting huge reversal moves every other day. I place a lot of emphasis on average true range for my stops and targets and it seems like the increased volatility is whipping stuff around. This is an easy problem to solve as a trader, as I just take less trades, tighten my targets, and wait for the odds to stack up in my favor. However, as a blogger who likes to post charts of potential trades I may take, it has been really tough get behind any charts lately. While this may make for slow blogging, I don't want to mislead any readers into over trading right now. As a trader it's very important to be cognizant of what market conditions make it difficult to execute your edge and then have the discipline to not trade during these conditions. The current environment is actually pretty good for scalpers and certain types of daytrading, so those types of traders should be doing the opposite and trading as often as there edge allows. There are really only a few lessons traders need to learn to be successful at trading, and learning when to sit on your hands is one of them. Cash is a viable position and you don't have to be in every move. It took me a while to learn that lesson, but it has paid off during the recent whipsaws, both in my bottom line and my sanity.

Good Trading,

Joey

Holy Smokes Posted by downtowntrader | 9/29/2008 09:51:00 PM | 0 comments »

I've mentioned before how I like to prepare for a few different scenarios and today is a perfect example of why I do. I've been fully prepared for a rally, but I've kept the thought in the back of my mind that things could unravel quickly. Once I saw things were getting ugly, I quickly exited most of my long positions. Luckily, I was hedged enough that I didn't lose any money today despite being net long. However, looking back, I was upset at missing some fairly obvious trades in the afternoon while watching the unfolding events and debating what was happening with co-workers.

One of the key points I've tried to drive home throughout the life of my blog is that traders should always have a plan and honor their stops. Today is a perfect example of why you should have a stop in place on ALL trades. Hopefully most of you weren't hurt in todays nasty tape, as we will be presented with an incredible buying opportunity soon, and it would do no good if you have no capital. There is a chance we have another nasty day tomorrow as well, but as hard as it is to believe, we are probably very close to a bottom. My favorite indicator T2108 is well under 20% down to 8.84%. VIX was through the roof today as well, and there is a real sense of fear in the markets. The hard part of course is being patient enough to sit on your hands until things begin to turn.

Here are a few links I feel are worth reading tonight.

[*]Interesting discussion between Andy Swan and a reader[*]Trader Mike on worst percentage loss days in the markets[*]Looks like Trader X is back to posting[*]Adam with a very interesting way to play the current environment
Good Trading,

Joey

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 15:57

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 16:21

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A Dash of Insight Abnormal Returns Alpha Trends Between the Hedges Big Picture Bob's Advice for Stocks Brett Steenbarger Chart Swing Trader Chris Perruna Controlled Greed Daily Options Report The Disciplined Investor Downtown Trader Dr. Duru Exchanges Fallond's Marketocracy Blog Financial Armageddon HeadlineCharts In the Money Information Arbitrage Kirk Report MaoXian Move the Markets Phil's World Power Swings Random Roger's Big Picture

Blogrollwww.tradermike.net]Trader Mike
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www.maddmoney.blogspot.com]Mad Money Recap
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www.brettsteenbarger.com%2Fweblog.htm]Dr. Brett Steenbarger
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www.swing-trade-stocks.com%2Ftaz-trader-blog.html]Taz Trader Blog
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www.movethemarkets.com]Move the Markets
www.boogster.com%2Fblog]Boogster
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www.thestockbandit.net]The Stock Bandit
CalTrader
Alpha Trends
Adams Daily Options Report
www.wallstrip.com]Wallstrip
www.howardlindzon.com]Howard Lindzon
www.billakanodoodahs.com]Bill Rempel
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Phils Stock World
Fly on Wall Street
www.optionpundit.net]OptionPundit
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Trade While Working
Afraid To Trade blog
www.tradersnarrative.com]Traders Narrative
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www.yourtradingstock.com%2F]Your Trading Stock
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Grigsby and Co.
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www.feedthebull.com%2F]Feed the Bull
Filtering Wall Street
Value Blog Review
Stock Market for Beginners Blog
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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:02

Stock Chart AFAM Posted by downtowntrader | 9/28/2008 10:11:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AFAM

Almost Family, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AFAM)

As regular readers know, I am a big fan of stocks close to their all time highs. This is because when a stock hits a new all time high, the only shareholders in pain are shorts. There are no long holders waiting to get out at breakeven, because they are all profitable. AFAM is pretty close to their all time highs, and whats impressive is that they haven't suffered at all through the current bear market. They had a nice move higher from April through August, and have been consolidating over the past two months. It looks like it is tracing out a small W bottom within a larger bull flag. I would think that if the markets rally at this point, that strong stocks like AFAM will lead the charge higher.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SOA6zBWOFsI/AAAAAAAABSo/WSYSsg9jkZA/s400/afam.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Out of town and charts Posted by downtowntrader | 9/25/2008 08:52:00 PM | 0 comments »

I haven't been able to post any charts the past couple of days due to a sudden Business trip I had to take. I'm not sure it would of made a difference however, as it's been slim pickin's recently. The markets seem to be transfixed on every word that comes out on the "Bailout package" and therefore trading has been very choppy from one day to the next. I wrote last week of how I was thinking we might get a lower volume pullback and retest of the potential low, and stepping back and looking at the charts, that might be what is coming to fruition. The question is was today the beginning of a rally, or just an up day within a move lower.

It looks like all the after market news today is negative. RIMM was crushed after releasing their earnings report. It looks like WAMU is being seized by the FDIC tomorrow. There is also "breaking news" that the proposed bailout is falling apart. There is a chance that tomorrow starts off with a large gap lower setting up a possible retest of the recent lows. How it reacts will be key, and interestingly enough, the government is in a situation where they could be the ones to step in yet again and manufacture a low by sealing the deal. Now is not the time to be taking large bets for short time frame trades. I am still trying to position myself for a rally, but I don't feel the urge to get greedy and bet the farm. If we get a rally, it should last a while and provide plenty of chances to hop on.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart VLNC Posted by downtowntrader | 9/22/2008 09:25:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis VLNC

Valence Technology, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:VLNC)

While I've been thinking we are closer to an intermediate bottom then the beginning of another wave down, I am cognizant of the fact that we are in a bear market and most rallies will be shorted. As such, I like to have a list of short plays ready, so that won't have to rush intraday to find a play if I'm wrong about my main thesis.

VLNC is a classic breakdown and retrace back up to the broken support for a retest. It was actually a pretty strong looking stock up until August. It broke down and while it found support at the 200 day sma, the bounce quickly petered out and it fell for 9 straight days. It is now back for a retest of the 200 sma, and after the sharp rally, this looks like a natural place for existing holders to get antsy and sell some shares. If market conditions cooperate, this could make for a nice short trade even if only for a retest of the lows.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SNhF3pG4YNI/AAAAAAAABSg/fJFKiUD2d0g/s400/vlnc.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

We might be there now Posted by downtowntrader | 9/17/2008 09:17:00 PM | 0 comments »

Wow. That was a crazy day. It's almost like we had two separate trading sessions. I've mentioned how I've been running the Stocktickr / Trade Ideas Trading robot, and today was a crazy day for it. It typically takes 4-8 trades a day, and today it took 63. It was up over 20 R's by noon on mostly short signals, and by 1:00 they were all gone. It chopped around a bit just after lunch, and then in the afternoon it took off again on mostly long signals. It actually used up all the buying power in my account and missed some trades. It ended up gaining 21R's, which is it's all time best day. The sick part about it, is that I had an urge to close out the mornings trades manually, but let the system run on it's own. If I had managed to just salvage half of those R's I would of had 30R's. Baby Frankenstein is definitely alive.

Today had some real fear and panic in it, and it shows up in several charts. What I would typically dismiss as bad ticks on daily charts, are actual sustained trading periods on several charts. There were some crazy moves in the market, and aggressive traders had plenty of opportunities. I mentioned how I would probably stay away, but once I saw how Frankenstein was shaken out of all his short positions, I had a feeling that capitulation had occurred. I entered a few long plays and was rewarded almost immediately after entering the trades. It's important to note, that while I went in with the frame of mind that I would wait things out, the markets showed me enough to risk my capital in a favorable environment. This is why I usually prepare for two or three different scenarios, so that I have a plan in case anything happens.

We may of hit a real important low today. Is it the bottom. Who knows? We won't know until it's in the rear view mirror. However, there are plenty of signals that an important low is being formed. Fear is rampant right now, and not many people believe a rally will hold up. Like I mentioned last night, I expect some follow through on this rally attempt, but I am fairly sure we will be back to test these lows. We might stop short of the lows, and we might surpass the lows, but it's HIGHLY doubtful, that we just catipult higher without some choppiness or backing and filling.

Also, keep in mind that after todays historic move, we are not even back to where we started on Monday. For all the market gyrations, nothing has really happened, so as traders we need to be fully prepared for anything that might occur. And as unlikely as it seems tonight, there is still a chance we plunge even lower.

Trade Carefully,

Joey

Are we there yet? Posted by downtowntrader | 9/17/2008 09:17:00 PM | 0 comments »

We started to get some panic trading late this afternoon, with several fear based indicators starting to hint at a low forming soon. T2108, which is my favorite indicator for signaling intermediate term bottoms closed under 20% today. The VIX closed over 30 as well. The Put/Call ratio was at a level consistent with overwhelming fear in the market and new lows have been at that level as well. The question is, are we there yet? As much as I trust these signals, I get the feeling we're not there yet. The market has to prove that we're there, and that means some sustained buying. A lot of traders have been burned recently, and I have a hunch that plenty of people are on margin calls and will be looking to sell once they "get back" some of their losses. Also, everytime the market is near a real panic, the Government intervenes and manufactures a low. These false bottoms end up just prolonging the inevitable and making it worse, by not allowing a real flushing of weak hands. The way I see things playing out is a sharp rally occuring at some point in the coming few days. I doubt we will get a rare V bottom, so it should eventually roll back over and have the critical retest, and possible bottom. Once that occurs, I will be more interested in getting long.

I did cover most of my shorts today, as I like to cover when t2108 get's under 20%. Maybe I'm missing out in the case of a real market crash, but I prefer to play it safe. One thing I will try to avoid the next few days is getting anxious on the long side. One of my faults is getting greedy and trying to get in early on a bottom. Even now, I am seeing plenty of bullish looking charts, inspite of the more common massacred charts. My plan right now is to start building a list of bullish charts that have not been damaged, so that in the case a bottom does form in the coming weeks, I will be ready. A few on my list already are bke, odfl, vocs, bwld, hubg, afam, cnqr and wbsn.

The longer and deeper this weakness lasts, the more likely we will set an important low.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart M Posted by downtowntrader | 9/14/2008 10:03:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis M

Macy's, Inc. (Public, NYSE:M)

M broke down in June after a perfect short setup. It had broken through support and gave a nice retest into the 20 sma where it failed. I could swear that I had blogged about it, and I know I ended up taking it, but I couldn't find it after searching for it.

Either way, it ended up dropping well over 25% and has steadily been climbing it's way back up to the breakdown area. It already failed it's first attempt at hurdling past resistance, and appears that it may be failing again. Additionally, the 200 sma has caught up to price, and it could offer up some additional resistance. If it rolls over, there is a chance it goes all the way back down to retest the July low, or even go past it.

Unfortunately, it appears we are set for a huge gap lower tomorrow morning on news that the LEH deal may of fallen through, so there may not be a good entry on M tomorrow. However, I will be on watch just in case there is a reasonable entry available.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SM3EEyyVblI/AAAAAAAABSY/o8fo70qA7bo/s400/m.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart CSH Posted by downtowntrader | 9/11/2008 08:59:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CSH

Cash America International, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CSH)

I like to keep a bullish and bearish watch-list at all times regardless of the current state of the markets. This way, I am ready to take advantage of any counter trend bounces when they emerge. The markets look like they may get a bounce here, so I'm gonna post a chart of a stock that has been holding very well while the markets have been dropping.

CSH has traced out a cup and handle type consolidation and looks like it may be breaking out of the handle. It has been unfazed by the recent market weakness, and on the contrary, is fairly close to all time highs. It had a strong move yesterday, and then held up well during this mornings weak open. It closed near the highs for the day and could be ready to move out as early as tomorrow.

Keep in mind that it is assumed that any rallies we get now are bear market rallies, even with stocks at all time highs. As a trader, I like to keep my targets fairly conservative when betting against the overall trend and much more aggressive when aligned with the trend. This would be a spot where I'm looking to take advantage of an oversold market with a strong stock, with the idea that I will be taking profits in a few days at most.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SMm_G-OwtvI/AAAAAAAABSQ/dses7l4U4PE/s400/csh.JPG

Good Trading,

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:02

Stock Chart TOL Posted by downtowntrader | 9/08/2008 09:26:00 PM | 3 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis TOL

Toll Brothers, Inc. (Public, NYSE:TOL)

Have we seen the bottom in the home builders? I want to clarify, that a bottom in home builders is not synonymous with a bottom in the housing market. Stocks tend to lead the economy by a good margin, and while the real estate market may have a ways to go, a bottom in the home builders really just means that investors feel more comfortable that the worst is known, and things will start to get better.

Today marked an important shift in Toll Brothers as they closed above a large double bottom that has been forming for two years. Below is the weekly chart showing that pattern I am seeing. I see a stock that broke a downtrend and cleared a sideways consolidation base. While we must wait for a weekly close, we did get a daily close above the base which was a good sign. The important shift, in my opinion, is that TOL may be setting a higher weekly high and did in fact set a higher high on the daily. Uptrends are classified as higher highs and lows of which TOL has both. Other homebuilders have yet to confirm the strength, so at worst, we may be getting a preview that TOL will be a leader in this space.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SMXRnA5OYaI/AAAAAAAABSI/s2qyalnvKJU/s400/tol.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart LNC Posted by downtowntrader | 9/04/2008 07:43:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart LNC

Lincoln National Corporation (Public, NYSE:LNC)

While financials have been showing good relative strength, it looks like several names are trading up to resistance. There may be a decent swing trade in this sector, even though it appears that money is rotating into the sector longer term. LNC has been in a steady downtrend over the past year. It has been consistently failing on every bounce to the 200 day sma. It looks like it may be reversing from the 200 sma again. I highlighted a wedge it broke down from in June and it appears that it may be falling out of a similar pattern here. If it does, it should test the July low and possibly surpass it.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SMBy7wpTBmI/AAAAAAAABSA/75l8sY__mfQ/s400/lnc.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart TRA Posted by downtowntrader | 9/03/2008 10:20:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis TRA

Terra Industries Inc. (Public, NYSE:TRA)

Below is a weekly chart of TRA. It has been in a healthy uptrend and recently has been trading sideways in a range. Is the Ascending Triangle below a Continuation base or a Topping Pattern?

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SL9GN8OrJ-I/AAAAAAAABR4/XzfwSamyubs/s400/tra.JPG

That was a trick question, as it could be either depending on which way it breaks out or down. However, volume is suggesting that this is a topping pattern, and that TRA is under heavy distribution. An important concept that many traders miss is that heavy volume is not always bullish. Heavy volume is valuable during a breakout or at an important low. However, heavy volume with no substantial movement signals that one party is "distributing" the stock to another. When there is heavy volume AFTER a strong uptrend, it's usually institutions distributing stock to retail investors. When you see heavy volume AFTER a log trend lower, the it's usually institutions accumulating from retail investors. Notice the common theme? Institutions are rarely transparent with their intentions, however, they can't hide the volume they trade.

In looking at TRA, it really has been in a sloppy range on the daily, however, the weekly is pretty well defined. It has been finding support at the 200 day sma on the daily chart with 6 touches over the past 6 months, but it hasn't been able to muster any real trend. Technically, it still can breakout higher from this triangle, but the heavy increase in volume has me a little skeptical. So, while the short agriculture trade may be getting crowded, TRA looks like one of the next to rollover to me.

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart PAAS Posted by downtowntrader | 9/01/2008 08:56:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis PAAS

Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:PAAS)

I've mentioned a few times how I think commodities may have topped out for this cycle and how money has been rotating out to early cycle sectors. Gold and Silver had an interesting past month in that prices fell off a cliff as the dollar surged. There is a lot of trapped money in this sector, as the move was very sharp and swift.

If you look below, I am highlighting a weekly chart of PAAS, which is a silver miner. Notice how it surged over a defined trading channel and then promptly rolled over to break below the entire channel. It got a little bounce back into the channel, and now the million dollar question is if it can hold above the channel, or if it is ready to embark in a bear market. I suspect the latter, but I think there is a good chance the dollar comes back in a little, which will allow for Silver to bounce a little higher. One of the reasons I think it may be over for PAAS though, is how it has been reacting to moving average support. Notice how it has been bouncing off the yellow moving average every time it corrects. This moving average has held as support since 2002 (not shown) and usually it bounces fairly quickly. There is still a chance it climbs back above it, but the drop was much steeper this time. My guess is that PAAS will roll over soon and offer a decent shorting opportunity. As always, please do your own due diligence.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SLyPh-b9UGI/AAAAAAAABRw/fIDxMWvI9HY/s400/paas.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart MOS Posted by downtowntrader | 8/28/2008 09:12:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis MOS

The Mosaic Company (Public, NYSE:MOS)

I mentioned last night that MOS was on my short watchlist, but that I wanted to get a feel for the markets before making a trading decision. Well, I noticed quite early today that "Ag" stocks were showing weakness, as the general markets were exhibiting impressive strength. I also mentioned on a few occasionshow early cycle sectors were starting to get some inflows and that late cycle sectors were being sold. It's not as easy to pick up these rotations on a typical day, but on strong trending days these patterns tend to stick out. Today, while Financials and Transports rallied, Agriculture stocks were down.

This, coupled with the fact that MOS reversed at its 200 day sma and had a bearish engulfing candle that took out a few days worth of candles was enough for me to establish a short position in the name. While I may be early, my expectation is that MOS will move lower over the next few weeks and make new lows. It has broken it longer term uptrend and then broke down under a lateral consolidation. Even the weekly chart is showing some topping patterns. For more analysis on a topping pattern, check out this post on POT. As always, perform your own due diligence.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SLdNeNJFkOI/AAAAAAAABRo/29nCGjYW5UI/s400/mos.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Couple of picks Posted by downtowntrader | 8/27/2008 09:34:00 PM | 0 comments »

I was completely away from the markets Monday and Tuesday, not even reviewing after market. I was then only able to pay attention for a couple of hours today, so to say I and probably a little disconnected from the markets is an understatement. I hate to offer analysis or advice when I am not fully involved, so I won't be posting any charts again tonight. I do have a couple of picks that are interesting, but I prefer to get a feel for the markets tomorrow before committing to any positions. The two that I have my eye on are MOS short and SOHU long. I am quite confident that MOS will be lower this year, but I'm not sure how high this retrace will go. SOHU on the other hand is not as clear, but the potential is there for a strong move higher.

Also keep in mind that next week should bring the return of "normal" volume levels to the markets. Late summer is always a tricky time to trade, and I for one will be happy after next Monday. We may get a strong trending move, one way or the other beginning next week.

Good Trading,

Joey

Philly Posted by downtowntrader | 8/24/2008 09:46:00 PM | 0 comments »

No update tonight as I have a 7:00am flight to Philly tomorrow morning.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart NETL Posted by downtowntrader | 8/21/2008 09:34:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis NETL

NetLogic Microsystems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NETL)

Add NETL to the list of cup and handle charts currently forming in the markets. One thing I like about this chart is while it hasn't cleared the overall cup and handle base, it has cleared the falling wedge that comprised the "handle". Also, respected the 4/30 gap as support, and in fact never completely filled it. Tech stocks have been getting some inflows the past couple of days on the heels of the HPQ report, and BCSI, which is in a similar space as NETL, was higher after hours today. The thing to watch for here is if NETL can pause here and get a bullish candle to reverse the pullback. I would bail if it fell back into the wedge, but more conservative traders may opt to place a stop under the 200 sma.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SK4X_t_DeWI/AAAAAAAABRg/ZG9zIXK2buE/s400/netl.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Auto Trading System Posted by downtowntrader | 8/19/2008 09:31:00 PM | 1 comments »

I posted this on downtowntrader.com tonight regarding an Auto Trading Robot I have been testing.

I’ve mentioned how I’ve been working on an Auto Trading System previously, and so far it has gone really well. I’ve been testing some strategies over the past three months using a paper trading account and it has actually performed better then I expected. I feel very comfortable with the safety and reliability of all the components to the point that I feel I can leave the bot unattended for short periods of time. I could theoretically leave it unattended all the time, but I prefer to keep tabs on it in case some strange market condition appears that would trigger an excess of alerts.
I had been thinking of running an auto trading system for quite some time, due to several factors including having a full time career, my love for building and testing strategies, and the fact that automated trading aligns very well with my personality. Even my discretionary trading is very close to an automated system in how I enter and exit positions. I initially looked at all the different players in this field including tradestation, ninjatrader, aiq, and even building a bot from scratch, but my lack of programming skills made it difficult to get started. I had friends that were willing to help with the programming, leaving me to focus on trading strategies, but collaborating on ideas was cumbersome and time consuming at best.
Funny enough, a few months after I began my search, my friend Dave from stocktickr.com mentioned how he had arrived at a similar conclusion about adding auto trading to his arsenal and how he was working on a trading Bot that would interface with Trade-Ideas. He was open to allowing me to help him beta test the software for him and in the process, it was the perfect environment for me to build some strategies around a product that I already used and loved. Dave has really created a fantastic product that has some very unique features compared to some of the other products I have looked at. The components are as follows:
Stocktickr Trading Bot: The Bot is responsible for tying all the different components together and is the brains around the ATS. The Bot is where you create, edit, and run trading strategies. Trading strategies are centered around receiving an alert from the Trade-Ideas Software, using trade management rules such as position sizing and stop loss management created in the Bot, and rerouting the signals as orders in Interactive Brokers. Once positions are closed, the Bot logs every trade into a users Stocktickr journal. There are several options including what times to trade, how to manage risk, and how to alert yourself of trades. You can also have multiple exit orders such as a trailstop and timestops to close positions before the market closes. All full subscription users of stocktickr.com have access to the trading bot software.
Trade-Ideas Software: This is where the trading signals come from. Trade-Ideas is a real time market scanner that generates alerts based on the criteria you enter. There are several strategies prepackaged with the software and it’s fairly simple to create your own. The software lets you choose a predefined alert, and then you can customize it with numerous filters. There are several alerts to choose from, and while you can’t program your own, the folks at Trade-Ideas are always adding new ideas. Just recently they even added some fundamental data filters. Some may find it limiting that you can’t program indicator based strategies such as MACD crossovers and such, but I’ve found those basic strategies pretty flawed. The alerts you can build from Trade-Ideas are very powerful, and I would venture to say you could probably use some of the prepackaged alerts pretty successfully. I’ve been using this software for years now, and it’s fantastic. Here is a prior review.
Interactive Brokers TWS: This is simply the Interactive Brokers Trading Platform. It is responsible for all orders once they are passed by the Bot. The beauty of this setup, is that once the Bot hands the orders to TWS, they are live orders within TWS, and thus any disruptions such as a communications outage or a PC freezing have no impact on the orders. You don’t have to worry about resynching, or resubmitting orders, as they are live server side orders. The Bot communicates via the Interactive Brokers TWS API.
Trade-Ideas Oddsmaker: Oddsmaker is the software used to backtest any idea created with the Trade-Ideas product. You can test several exit strategies to verify if an idea is worth pursuing. Typically, I brainstorm for an idea then run it through the oddsmaker. If it shows promise, I will test several exit strategies, and if it makes it this far, it is a candidate for forward testing with the Bot. As a side note, the nice thing about using Interactive Brokers, is that they have a paper trading feature where you can test with real time data and fills. It will reject a short sale if shares are not available, account for slippage, etc.
Stocktickr Journal: I’ve written about stocktickr before, and this is where I log every single trade I make. It tracks all the stats I need to keep tabs on my trading systems such as expectancy, win rate, and net profit. Keeping a journal is one of the most important things you need to grow as a trader. I wrote an article a while back about how important keeping a journal is here.
* You can also configure the Bot to send signals to Medved’s Quotetracker software. I don’t currently use Quotetracker, but I can see this as a very useful feature.
To summarize, the basic requirements are using Interactive Brokers as your broker, subscribing to stocktickr.com and subscribing to the Trade-Ideas software.
I’ve been calling my bot Frankenstein and I brought him to life last week. So far it has been decent, with a gain of 4R’s in 3 days. More importantly, there have been no snags so far in live mode. There have been small issues here and there, mostly related to the bot logging the trades into the journal. The biggest issue I had in test mode was a trade that didn’t close, but that was a problem with AMEX executing the order and even canceling the orders and resubmitting manual orders didn’t work.
Of course there are pro’s and con’s regarding any product and some of the limitations with this setup are as follows:
At this point Interactive Brokers is the only supported broker. This was not an issue for me as this was my broker of choice anyways.
You can’t program your own strategy like in TradeStation, however, the ease of creating strategies trumps this limitation in my eyes.
There are no portfolio management options like limiting total capital used, although you can sort of rig it my limiting how many concurrent positions can be opened per strategy.
Some of the pros include:
Live orders at the broker.
Extensive statistics available with stocktickr.com
Very stable platform (all applications) with very fast executions from alert to journal entry.
Very inexpensive for having a complete trading BOT with no programming required.
I think anyone interested in building an ATS should check out this suite of tools. Through the affiliate links below, readers of downtowntrader.com can sign up for 7 day trials of Stocktickr and Trade-Ideas. Even if you have no interest in auto trading, each of these are spectacular products and deserve a test run.
Sign up here for your free trial of stocktickr.com
Sign up here for your free trial of Trade-Ideas
If anyone has specific questions regarding any of the tools, please feel free to post them in the comments section. If I don’t know the answer, I can forward the question to the respective companies.

Good Trading,
Joey

Stock Chart PETM Posted by downtowntrader | 8/12/2008 09:43:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis PETM

PetSmart, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:PETM)

PETM is a nice example of a confirmed double bottom. A lot of traders see the W forming and assume it's a double bottom, but in fact a double bottom is only confirmed once the stock CLOSES above the neckline (or top of W). A large number of these patterns fail before closing above the neckline, and usually end up forming some sort of descending triangle.

Notice how PETM did in fact close above the neckline. The way to measure a target for this pattern is to measure the distance from the top to the bottom of the pattern. This yields a target of 6 points, which would take PETM near 31. Of course there are no guarantees it ever gets there. Here is a link to double bottoms on a great site for chart patterns and how to trade them.

It looks like PETM is coming back to test the breakout, and with a good chance of market weakness over the next few days, it's quite possible that PETM dips under the neckline, but it's on my watchlist in case it holds in this area and then resumes the breakout.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SKI8hDKymCI/AAAAAAAABRY/ftX2TKH8nVU/s400/petm.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:03

Stock Chart BNI Posted by downtowntrader | 8/10/2008 10:12:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis BNI

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (Public, NYSE:BNI)

Railroad stocks have been marching higher despite the general markets being weak over the past several months. Take a look at the chart below for BNI and notice how it has been moving higher the entire year. While the chart doesn't jump out at you as anything spectacular, if you take a look at the same chart for the S&P500 then it makes you wonder how rails have avoided the recent plague. While it has been in a correction over the past two months, so far the correction has respected the breakout area as support, and the weekly and monthly charts still look very healthy. This is one is not too complicated, basically, there is an opportunity to enter a strongly trending stock, in a strong sector, on a pullback.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SJ-gqbmt1-I/AAAAAAAABRQ/DFPcjJTEqdY/s400/bni.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart ODFL Posted by downtowntrader | 8/06/2008 08:27:00 PM | 3 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line (Public, NASDAQ:ODFL)

Often I look to intermarket relationships to look at underlying market themes that can help skew the odds in my favor on a given trade. Lately, commodities and oil in particular have been taking it on the chin and with the dollar breaking some resistance, it looks like it could rally some more in the next few weeks. Transport stocks have benefited directly from the drop in crude as Airlines, trucking, and rails have looked quite bullish over the past few sessions.

Below is a chart of ODFL with the price of crude as tracked by USO overlayed on the chart. Notice how ODFL was basing the entire time crude was in an uptrend and how ODFL would tend to rise on pullbacks in oil and fall back when oil would rise. Then notice how ODFL had a significant breakout at a time when oil was breaking down below a multi month trend line. Volume was substantially higher on the breakout and ODFL has been basing in a flag type formation since the initial breakout. While it may come back and retest the lower boundary of the flag again, it sure looks like ODFL is setting up for a sharp move higher. I also like that the all time high is just about 10% higher. It sure looks like this is a good sector to be in moving forward.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SJpBy0ikvuI/AAAAAAAABRI/coL6PB75oH8/s400/odfl.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Fed Day Move Higher Posted by downtowntrader | 8/05/2008 08:47:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock ripped higher today well before the Fed released their statement and then continued to surge higher after the release. However, after huge moves the indexes are basically back up to lateral resistance and while volume was higher then yesterday, it was nothing to write home about. Often it takes a few days for the markets to digest what the Fed had to say and then "price it in", so I wouldn't put too much into today's move. I still like biotech, medical, and pharmaceuticals as leaders if the markets are going to rally here. Also, notice that commodity and AG stocks continued to roll over today. They may be the stocks to short for the next move lower whenever that occurs.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart POT Posted by downtowntrader | 8/03/2008 10:01:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis POT

Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

POT has been a market leader for well over a year now. It has been immune to the weakness in the markets and has been bought on every dip. However, notice how it has basically been trading sideways on very high volume. This is how the big boys distribute stocks to the little guys. It is tough to pick up sometimes on the daily charts, but sometimes it pays to step back and look at weekly or even monthly charts. (High volume) + (no movement higher) = Distribution and therefore a possible top. Looking at the chart below, it has paid to buy POT on pullbacks to the rising 21 week ema so it is possible that POT is a buy right here. However, it sure looks like POT is headed at least to the rising trendline and possibly much lower.

http://bp3.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SJZlr1EA83I/AAAAAAAABRA/wWFt2HRhIAg/s400/pot.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart ABAT Posted by downtowntrader | 7/30/2008 09:50:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis ABAT

Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ABAT)

ABAT has been consolidating a breakout for over a month now and could be close to resuming the prior move. It has held above the prior peaks and most of the volume has been on up days. The all time high is 8.38 and when these small stocks hit new all time highs it can cause nasty short squeezes. This is due to a lot of different reasons, but a big part of it is many of these stocks are heavily sold short because they usually fail. Shorts get it right more often then not, but when a stock is able to push to new all time highs, then EVERY single short is underwater. Of course, any time a large group is caught on the wrong side it can cause fireworks. Of course there is no guarantee the stock ever gets there, but if it can clear this small penant, it could head for at least a retest of the all time high.

http://bp1.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SJEbPS-J7uI/AAAAAAAABQ4/LApr4vdxb4A/s400/abat.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Laptop Issues Posted by downtowntrader | 7/28/2008 09:07:00 PM | 0 comments »

I use my laptop for most of my homework and blog posting, and this weekend my charger broke. This has left me in a little pickle as I don't have most of my research software loaded on the trading computer. That's why there wasn't a post last night, and why there won't be a chart tonight either. I've been taking it easy the last couple of days anyways as the markets are a little herky jerky here. I still feel like we are closer to a rally then the beginning of a new leg down, but obviously the bears still have some fight in them. A couple of interesting charts on the long side are FSLR and NIHD. Keep an eye on those if the markets get some traction over the next couple of days.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart LMNX Posted by downtowntrader | 7/24/2008 09:14:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis LMNX

Luminex Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:LMNX)

As bad as the bottom line looked today for the major indixes, several stocks held up or actually moved higher. LMNX, while giving back some of it's gains, still formed a nice bullish engulfing candle on an uptick in volume. This shows that buyers overcame early weakness and overwhelmed sellers. Looking at the bigger picture, LMNX looks like it recently cleared a small wedge like consolidation pattern, which should yield at least a retest of the prior highs. There is a very good chance it will continue past that and make new highs. There are several different options for stop losses depending on the type of trader you are, but for my style, I wouldn't want LMNX falling back into the wedge.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SIkqmxU08jI/AAAAAAAABQw/7RoVKgz_4E4/s400/lmnx.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Earnings Season Posted by downtowntrader | 7/22/2008 09:47:00 PM | 0 comments »

I pore through hundreds of charts every night as part of my "homework" routine in order to scan the markets for trading candidates. I then typically pick one for my blog post. The last thing I do is check for earnings and upcoming events, because as a short term swing trader, I avoid earnings like the plague. I had four charts that looked pretty interesting tonight, but low and behold, they ALL report earnings in the next day or two. I don't want to mislead someone into buying a stock that reports earnings in two days, so I won't post the charts. I'll name the stocks for anyone that wants to go back and review the charts themselves though. I liked NETL, FFIV, NVEC and BMC as long plays. Funny enough, they are all tech issues. While some big tech names have been sold after earnings, the buyout of FDRY today could help other network plays like NETL, FFIV and even RVBD or BCSI. It should be interesting to see if the "sell earnings" theme continues.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart FSLR Posted by downtowntrader | 7/21/2008 09:10:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis FSLR

First Solar, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FSLR)

I had lost track of FSLR for a while, as most solar stocks were nailed in a correction. I was quite impressed as I pulled up the chart and noticed that FSLR has not been damaged at all by weakness in it's sector and the general markets. Sure, it has undergone it's own pullback, but the chart looks very constructive and volume has declined during the consolidation. I don't know, or pretend to know if oil is topped out, or getting ready to squeeze higher, but if it does squeeze higher, I want to be ready with a basket of alternative energy stocks.

Looking more closely at the chart, notice that FSLR has generally had higher highs and lows, and it is more apparent in the weekly chart. It is in the process of potentially carving out a small W or double bottom continuation pattern, and also has the 200 sma rising to support it. Even if oil has peaked, this chart has enough potential to stand on it's own and we might even see a run in alternative energy stocks as the election nears. Being a technical trader, I don't usually worry about what causes a stock to move, but I like to be prepared for macro events as they occur.

http://bp1.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SIU7Sup8YAI/AAAAAAAABQo/62Xfmx1i0uU/s400/fslr.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:04

Stock Chart BVN Posted by downtowntrader | 7/20/2008 10:26:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis BVN

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BVN)

I wasn't sure about posting this chart tonight, because I was looking for gold to pull in a little more. However, this chart is close enough to a breakout that it should be on my watchlist. I can't predict if it will clear the descending trend line or not, so the best I can do is prepare for it, and watch what unfolds. Gold stocks don't necessarily trade in perfect unity with physical gold, so the miners may take the lead here. As for Gold in general, it still looks pretty good to me, although it will be interesting to see what happens if oil continues to drop.

Looking specifically at BVN, it was on quite a nice trend from January 2007 through March 2007, before beginning a correction. This correction it is in has been rather mild, and BVN has respected the $59-$60 area very consistently. The 200 sma is now exerting pressure from below as the trend line converges from above. There should be a resolution fairly soon, and my guess would be that this is a continuation pattern.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SIP09qX3iCI/AAAAAAAABQg/AxV_TPRssEc/s400/bvn.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart WIRE Posted by downtowntrader | 7/17/2008 10:03:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis WIRE

Encore Wire Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:WIRE)

I highlighted a possible cup and handle in AAPL yesterday and mentioned how I've been seeing similar patterns in the markets recently. WIRE is another stock I've been watching that is forming a possible cup and handle. This chart has a lot of things going for it besides the cup and handle label. It had a nice gap higher on strong volume in the right side of the base. The gap, combined with the 200 day sma, has been holding as support during the pullback as well. Volume has also contracted with the pullback which is healthy. It may come back at test the lower end of this trading range before attempting a breakout, but WIRE is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SH_6rVhk5kI/AAAAAAAABQY/np4a9w_xvhM/s400/wire.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Videos on Gold and Crude Oil Posted by downtowntrader | 7/17/2008 02:01:00 PM | 0 comments »

We have some interesting price action today. With the recent moves in oil and gold, INO.com had two very timely videos posted today on where they stand.

Please enjoy and let me know what your thoughts and opinions are.

The first covers Gold and analyzes if it has topped out:

http://www.ino.com/info/230/CD3120/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

The second looks into the recent moves in Crude:

http://www.ino.com/info/231/CD3120/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart AAPL Posted by downtowntrader | 7/16/2008 08:50:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AAPL

Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

Often, after a market enters a trending state, you will start seeing similar patterns appearing in multiple stocks. You can see this to a greater degree during specific sector rotations. Lately, I've been seeing a lot of cup and handle type bases, which would make sense if you analyze what the markets have done over the past several months.

First there was the steep drop from October to March, where the left side of many of these bases was formed. Then as the markets bottomed and attempted a rally, the ride side was formed. Now as the markets correct once again, the stronger stocks are consolidating by retracing a portion of the right side of the base, therefore forming the handle. There are no guarantees that a stock will ever clear the handle and break to new highs, but the fact that they are well above the lows, while the markets test the lows, shows relative strength.

AAPL is a pretty good example of the type of base I'm seeing recently. It is pulling back in a flag like base, which also could be the handle in the base. I like how the 200 day sma is also providing support as AAPL attempts to find a low here. The one thing I don't like here is the relatively light volume as AAPL built the right side of the cup, but the decrease in volume in the handle is desirable. AAPL is not out of the woods yet though. It is still under a downward sloping 50 day sma and technically, it could lose the 200 fairly easily. However, trading is all about taking calculated risks, and if the markets are indeed getting ready to stage a rally, then AAPL should get the support it needs to attempt a breakout.

http://bp1.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SH6XvWP4JGI/AAAAAAAABQA/Go3IzdWOGuA/s400/aapl.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart IDIX Posted by downtowntrader | 7/13/2008 10:28:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis IDIX

Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:IDIX)

It looks like the markets will gap higher tomorrow morning based on the FRE and FNM news. Throw in a little M&A news on the Anheuser buyout and shorts may get a little squeezed. I've been noticing some rotation into Biotech stocks and Pharmaceuticals recently and they could take a leadership role in whatever rally the markets get. While IDIX is no where near all time highs, they have been one of the few stocks to remain very close to their 52 week highs and remain above their 50 day sma throughout the recent market weakness. I highlighted some lateral consolidation areas that are similar to Darvas Boxes. Notice how IDIX has been respecting the previous resistance level as support. If IDIX can clear the $7.50 area, momentum could easily carry it into the $9-10 area. While Darvas theory would place a stop below the existing "box" at around $5.50, more aggressive traders could probably get away with a stop .50 cents higher.

http://bp3.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SHq6UBi3u8I/AAAAAAAABP4/qsgLiJRwT3A/s400/idix.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Beach Vacation Posted by downtowntrader | 7/06/2008 09:12:00 PM | 5 comments »

I am in Marco Island, Florida for the week on vacation, so I doubt there will be any posts this week. I usually try to tune the markets out completely when I'm on vacation, but I have a feeling there will be a sharp move this week, so I want to try and monitor whats going on. I may get a post up if I see anything developing.

Good Trading,

Joey

Markets Capitulating Posted by downtowntrader | 7/02/2008 09:22:00 PM | 0 comments »

My gut is telling the markets are in the process of capitulating. I was early on some of my buys and have thus been stopped out of several positions. I am still resisting any temptation to short as any snap back rally we get will occur sharply and trap more then a handful of bears. I've been continuing to nibble on the long side, but at this point, the best thing to do is what for the indexes to stabilize. Even after we get the first rally day, the markets will probably come back for a retest a few days later. It makes no sense to get too aggressive until things become more clear.

These can be difficult times for traders and the best advice I can give is to make sure you cut your losses with complete discipline. Just because the markets "should" bounce back, doesn't mean they "will" bounce back before margin calls force you to sell. Your capital is the only ammo you have to compete in this world, and you need to save as much of it as possible so that you have a fighting chance when the odds are back in your favor.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart XTLB Posted by downtowntrader | 6/30/2008 08:51:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis XTLB

XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:XTLB)

When you look in the textbook for what a symmetrical triangle looks like, this is what you see. There's a lot to like here on this chart. I like how XTLB reclaimed the 200 day sma and based in an orderly fashion as the ma rounded into form. It also has been building a healthy base as the overall markets correct. Today's breakout also came with the support of expanding volume and could ignite a move to new highs. Take care if you choose to trade this stock, as the volume is relatively thin, but if the markets get the snap back rally I've been expecting, then XTLB may be a nice play.

http://bp3.blogger.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SGl_9GR4KiI/AAAAAAAABPw/l_z802LuhFY/s400/xtlb.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Chart Analysis NTWK Posted by downtowntrader | 6/29/2008 07:49:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis NTWK

NetSol Technologies Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NTWK)

With the Markets at oversold levels, I am starting to position myself to the long side. I may be early or wrong entirely, but that is what stops are for. NTWK is a stock I found through a scan that printed a narrow range candle at support. In looking at the chart, it looks like NTWK is trading in a small triangle pattern, that could be interpreted as the handle in a larger cup and handle base. The fact that it is basing over the 200 day sma is telling be that this level could very well hold as support, and institutions may be accumulating at these levels. Also, it has shown very good relative strength by holding up the past few days as other tech stocks got hammered. If the markets do indeed bounce from these oversold levels, then NTWK could beak out of the triangle and head up for a retest of it's 52 week highs.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SGgf1Jd00-I/AAAAAAAABPo/sjbc7SfHIS8/s400/ntwk.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart DUG Posted by downtowntrader | 6/26/2008 08:47:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DUG

UltraShort Oil Gas & ProShares (Public, AMEX:DUG)

I know many will see this post about going long on DUG (inverse oil producers and oil service stocks) and assume I am trying to call a top in oil. I'm not calling a top in oil, although I think there is a chance it is close to topping out. What motivates me to write about DUG, is the recent divergence between oil the commodity and oil producers and service stocks like XOM and DVN. Notice that while Oil is hitting record highs, these oil stocks are not hitting new highs with oil.

In looking at DUG, notice that while oil was surging today, DUG didn't break to new lows, or even under yesterdays low. Are funds distributing Oil stocks into the unsuspecting retail traders? This is typical of institutions during the climactic phases of any trend, and DUG is showing some very interesting volume patterns. I highlighted the highest volume days for DUG in the chart below and circled the days they corresponded with. All the high volume days were associated with buying in the $27 range showing strong support for that level. It's tough to try and call bottoms or tops, but it sure looks like money is flowing into DUG here, even as Oil continues to surge. A key level to watch here would be DUG trading over $30.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SGQ5ACy1wUI/AAAAAAAABPg/1muJgtjQ3_k/s400/dug.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart GLD Posted by downtowntrader | 6/25/2008 10:45:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GLD

SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (Public, NYSE:GLD)

Is Gold ready to turn higher, or is it in the process of topping out? It is starting to look like we will find out very soon which way gold will go next. Below is a chart of GLD, the ETF that tracks gold prices. Keep in mind this is gold the asset, not gold miners. I will first warn, that I have not had much luck in trading gold or gold stocks the past few months, but it looks like a possible setup is forming here. GLD was on a great trending move for 2007 and early 2008, before beginning a correction. The correction has been fairly well organized, and the wedge it was following was broken to the upside about a month ago. GLD also pulled back to a previous pivot high and it looks like it is holding as solid support. GLD has basically consolidated the past few weeks and may be close to setting a higher low. This could serve as the launching pad for a new leg up which would ultimately challenge $100. The key levels to watch here are a break under $84.50 which could lead to a break of the 200 sma and horizontal support, and $89 on the upside.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SGMDFqcT1QI/AAAAAAAABPY/m8A8ImXJMR8/s400/gld.JPG

update 6/26/2008: My buddy doc, who is a gold bugs gold bug, wanted me to mention how he has been bullish gold bullion in a big way. Of course he is neither a real doctor nor a mining executive, but he wanted his opinion to be known.

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart T2108 Indicator Posted by downtowntrader | 6/23/2008 10:00:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis T2108 Indicator

Worden Telechart T2108 Indicator (% Stocks Above 40 Day PMA)

While I've been bearish the markets for several weeks now, I am starting to see some bullish signs. I think there may still be some near term weakness, but I am starting to think the markets will mount another decent rally in the intermediate term. Several of the indicators I watch are pressing towards lows commonly seen at bottoms and any weakness over the next few days will get them there. However, there is a chance that if we see enough strength in the next few days, it will not allow the markets to get truly oversold, thus delaying any bounce, and possibly setting up for a stronger move lower.

One of the charts I watch for bottoming in the markets is Worden's Telechart T2108 indicator. This indicator measures stocks trading above their 40 day moving averages. It's a percentage based oscillator and as such, is measured from 0% - 100%. The levels I look for are 80% for topping patterns and 20% for bottoming patterns.

This is not to say that I follow automatic buy or sell signals when it reaches these levels, but it definitely puts me on guard. In the chart below I highlighted the last three years and the occurrences of the indicator falling under 20%. In green, I superimposed the the S&P500 via the SPY ETF. Notice how a bottom occurs almost every time the indicator falls under 20%. There are a few cases where it takes a little longer, or fakes a little, but several weeks out, it has been a very reliable indicator.

The indicator is not yet under 20%, and it could spend a few weeks under 20% if it gets there, but what is important to note is that the markets are indeed approaching oversold levels and as such, it wouldn't make much sense starting to go crazy shorting now. Unless of course, the markets head higher too soon, which would offset some of the "oversoldness" of the markets and provide great shorting opportunities. One of those two scenarios should unfold over the next month.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SGBMdXbNwRI/AAAAAAAABPQ/CTjzbAJpexk/s400/t2108.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

Heading to the Big Easy Posted by downtowntrader | 6/16/2008 10:18:00 PM | 5 comments »

I will be out the rest of the week on vacation. I will be heading out to New Orleans for a few days of fun. If anyone has some good suggestions for places to eat at or visit, please feel free to drop a comment.

As for the markets, I was hoping to get a decent rally tomorrow to allow for some re-entries into some shorts or inverse ETF's. While we could have more strength ahead, I am still leaning towards the markets being lower over the next couple of weeks.

Good Trading,

Joey

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:05

Stock Chart FPP Posted by downtowntrader | 6/15/2008 10:11:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis FPP

Fieldpoint Petroleum Corporation (Public, AMEX:FPP)

Junior Oil stocks have been going ballistic recently, and several of them have been consolidating over the past two weeks. While most of these look extended, as simple as it sounds, the fact that they are not going down shows buyers are stepping in on any weakness. FPP has been trading in very tight narrow range candles the past five sessions, showing that bulls and bears are at a stalemate. Whichever way it breaks will find a group of traders scrambling as stocks usually explode after strong volatile moves followed by extreme contraction in volatility. FPP looks like it is trading in a bull pennant with volume contracting nicely as it consolidates. These patterns usually resolve to the upside as continuation patterns, so I am looking at a break of the recent narrow range candles as a potential signal that the uptrend is resuming.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SFXMlnk_ZmI/AAAAAAAABPI/0EOABc5T-TQ/s400/fpp.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Making a list Posted by downtowntrader | 6/12/2008 09:40:00 PM | 0 comments »

I'm not too crazy about chasing any new shorts right now. Although I think there is a good chance we continue to see downside, we are starting to get oversold and a snap back rally will probably happen very quickly when it does. I was surprised to see that the percentage of stocks over their 40 day moving averages dropped to 27% the past few sessions. I usually look at levels under 20% as oversold and it could easily get there after a day or two of extended weakness. Therefore I am also not looking to go long in too much now either. I would rather wait to get to an extreme oversold environment, or wait for a small bounce to relieve some of the fear in the marketplace. What I am doing now, is making a list of stocks to watch depending on the next few days of action. If we gap higher tomorrow on economic news and it sticks, I will then be looking to re-short next week. If we gap lower and crash, then I will start looking for long plays next week once things settle down.

Some stocks that have been showing relative strength are:
Some specialty retail like TRLG and DLTR
AUXL
Several Junior Oils like PDO,FPP,etc.
RIMM
ag stocks like MON and MOS
More oil stocks like GMXR and SFY

Stocks that have been showing relative weakness are:
Any airline stock
Any financial stock
China and Financial ETF's
Non specialty retail like M and SHLD
Some oil like RIG and XOM

All of these are on my watchlist and could provide decent entries over the next few days.

Good Trading,

Joey

Tradecision Promotion Posted by downtowntrader | 6/10/2008 11:24:00 PM | 0 comments »

I mentioned last week how downtowntrader.com readers could get a 16% discount for the Tradecision software. Alyuda Research just introduced 2 and 4 month subscription packages for those that don't want to commit that much capital to buying a software package. Additionally, they are running a promotion where they are offering the Alyuda Neatscan Market Scanner as a bonus to all buyers and subscribers. Keep in mind that there is a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee on their software, so it may not be a bad idea to pick it up now while the Neatscan scanner is free. You can find more information on the Tradecision software along with pricing here.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart LNC Posted by downtowntrader | 6/08/2008 09:03:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis LNC

Lincoln National Corporation (Public, NYSE:LNC)

One of my favorite patterns to trade is buying a stock that looks like it is completing a pullback after a 52 week or all time high. The reverse works very well in certain market environments. Assuming we are in a bear market, this would qualify as one of those market environments.

LNC made a new 52 week low in January and successfully tested that low in March. If you step back and look at the overall picture, it appears that LNC has been in a corrective move higher after a steady downtrend. While it could be in a bottoming process, the breakdown from a rising wedge portends a move down to retest the lows again. The retest would yield a 10% move, and there is always the chance it breaks down to fresh new 52 week lows.

I would look at any bounce in the next few days as a possible shorting opportunity.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SEyBuRhQQVI/AAAAAAAABPA/M-zXx6eb2Ns/s400/lnc.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart RIG Posted by downtowntrader | 6/03/2008 08:44:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis RIG

Transocean Inc. (Public, NYSE:RIG)

Oil and Oil service stocks have been on a tear lately. Many junior oil stocks like MXC and PDO have gone parabolic, and new ones seem to be popping up everyday like ROYL today. In the meantime, it looks like some oil stocks have quietly been under distribution. Often, when a stock trades sideways on higher volume then the preceding run up, it signals that institutions are unloading shares to retail traders. RIG has basically gone nowhere over the past 2 months and may be completing a triple top. It made a marginal new high and quickly reversed. All the indicators were divergent at the top as well. While it's oversold on a near term basis, the reality is, that RIG may be at the early stages of a deep correction. It's tough to spot a top in any market, but RIG is showing several classic traits of a stock that is in a topping process. Another point to consider is that RIG was recently among the Oil Stock Leadership group, leading most of the rallies. It is now a laggard, and could be due for a rough stretch.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SEXls31CB-I/AAAAAAAABO4/S7Vlp7bZ2sc/s400/rig.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart LULU Posted by downtowntrader | 6/02/2008 09:54:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis LULU

Lululemon Athletica inc. (Public, NASDAQ:LULU)

Often, failed patterns end up being more powerful then the original pattern projected. Part of the logic behind this idea, is that you have the added presence of a group of traders who were caught off guard in addition to the typical traders speculating on the position. LULU is a good example of a possible failed breakout.

LULU is in a precarious position here, as it attempted a breakout from a reverse head and shoulder type base, and quickly fell back under the neckline. This left a group of traders speculating on a breakout from a solid pattern, underwater. They are feeling the pressure as LULU is looking like it might be failing before even reaching their breakeven price. Then you add short sellers looking for a breakdown, and the potential for a sharp pullback is increased. Of course they don't always work out like this, but there is always a chance that failed patterns lead to a squeezing of the group who was caught off guard. This usually leads to handsome profits for the prepared trader.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SESkuKEJi4I/AAAAAAAABOw/eQT5YXxT9l0/s400/lulu.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Special "Downtowntrader" Discount offer for Tradecision Software Posted by downtowntrader | 5/28/2008 08:55:00 PM | 0 comments »

I recently partnered with Tradecision in order to offer downtowntrader.com readers deep discounts on their professional trading software. In our agreement, I am able to offer 16% off the retail price for the software, and it's a one time fee, so no monthly fees to worry about. They also offer a 30 day money back guarantee, so there really isn't anything to lose by trying it.
I've been looking for a professional caliber trading package that would allow me to recreate my trading strategies into quantifiable systems that could be accurately backtested and work with my current broker. I also needed the ability to apply portfolio management techniques and of course, the ability to apply my typical technical analysis methods in a charting package. The Tradecision software is very powerful and has many features I haven't been able to use yet, but it looks like it will easily become an important piece of software in my toolbox. Here is a snippet from their website detailing how the software can help short term traders (What I assume the majority of my readers to be):

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SD3_rmnRmtI/AAAAAAAABOo/Vst-t58fHNc/s400/tradecision_300x250.jpg
With the help of the clear Improvian language, strategy development tools, and the application's reliable Data Manager you can attain virtually any of your trading objectives.
Tradecision enables you to:
Perform accurate price action analysis. Identify buying and selling opportunities in real time. Create sound money management strategies. [*]Gain an edge over your competition by using neural networks.At your disposal, you have a set of analytical studies including Auto-trends, Pivots, Single Bar patterns, Elliott wave, Reversal patterns, Fibonacci, Pitchforks, and Gann, as well as over 100 most popular indicators, such as RSI, PercentR, MACD, Moving averages, Stochastic, Bollinger bands, Chaikin Oscillator.
For your convenience, the most reliable money management rules are predefined and easily accessible through the Tradecision point-and-click Money Management Editor.
With fully automated neural networks you can create a profitable trading strategy. You can reduce the time required for optimization of your trading rules and indicators using the fast Genetic Algorithms. At the same time, any over-optimization is automatically prevented by the intelligent algorithms.

I will follow up with this post in the coming weeks with details on certain parts of the platform as I become more comfortable with the software.
Follow this link if you're interested in trying the Tradecision software with a 30 day money back guarantee.

Stock Chart Analysis SPY Posted by downtowntrader | 5/26/2008 08:12:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis SPY

SPDR Trust, Series 1 (Public, AMEX:SPY)

First off, my thoughts are with the soldiers who have made the ultimate sacrifice protecting our country. Whether you support this war or not, think of the people who put their life on the line everyday. Happy Memorial Day.

I decided to show very simple chart of the S&P500 ETF, SPY for a couple of reasons. First, the markets are in a tough spot to be initiating new positions for the type of trades I make, so I don't want to post any charts of stocks until I feel the odds are back in my favor. Second, I felt it was important to show that the markets are possibly breaking down without over complicating things with tons of indicators.

Looking at the SPY chart below, you will find only a couple of moving averages, and a trend line. I also highlighted the most recent pivot highs and lows, as the very definition of how a stock is trending is based on the highs and lows. An uptrend is simply when a stock is making higher highs and higher lows, and the reverse of course, for down trends. If you look at SPY you will notice that it was in a clear down trend from October through January. It then started trading sideways until appearing to breakout late in April. It then cleared a down trend line dating back to October, but then immediately reversing a few days later. I highlighted a couple of questionable pivot highs and lows, of which both were broken. The low was broken last Friday, and while this may not be an important pivot point that was broken, it does portend a test of the more significant low near 132. I would suspect a bounce over the coming days, but as long as price doesn't make a new high, it looks like SPY will ultimately test the low formed at 132.33.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SDtS0GnRmrI/AAAAAAAABOY/8tiIlf8T5n4/s400/spy.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Markets Pullback Posted by downtowntrader | 5/21/2008 09:08:00 PM | 0 comments »

There are no charts tonight, as I feel it's probably time to step back and wait to see what the markets will do. I posted some more commentary on downtowntrader.com for those interested.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart LEH Posted by downtowntrader | 5/19/2008 09:48:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis LEH

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Public, NYSE:LEH)

Financial Stocks have been under performing throughout the recent rally, and should lead the way lower on the next downturn. LEH's chart is interesting as resistance is clearly defined, yet the lower boundaries of support are still open to much interpretation. It looks like the $49-50 is the clear ceiling until proven otherwise. It looks to me like it may probe for support in the coming sessions as supply seems to be overwhelming demand. I don't know how much lower it will go before buyers step in, but LEH could easily drop 5-7 points from here and still be confined to a trading range. That is over a 10% move from current levels and the stop is manageable as well.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SDIx_e8_d6I/AAAAAAAABOI/sHexvnbMYS0/s400/leh.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:05

Stock Chart PFCB Posted by downtowntrader | 5/18/2008 09:25:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis PFCB

P.F. Chang's China Bistro (Public, NASDAQ:PFCB)

I'm not sure when or if gas prices will start impacting the consumer, but the first place most will cut back is on eating out at the mid-tier restaurants. The clientele for high end restaurants are usually less impacted during economic downturns, and the cheaper restaurants could have a trickle down effect from consumers looking to curb their spending rather then staying home. I'm not sure how business is doing for PF Changs, or their prospects moving forward, but the chart is showing some possible weakness. It just broke down through a rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. It's bollinger bands have contracted to it's narrowest range in several months and just began expanding again. This could be signaling the beginning of an increase in volatility and with PFCB falling out of a bearish pattern, it looks like the move will be lower. It's also at a point where the stop loss is clear and risk is minimal compared to the possible reward. I would prefer an entry near the declining 20 day sma, but it may not give that chance. Of course, a lot depends on the markets the next few days.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SDDXXO8_d5I/AAAAAAAABOA/l4HxzkZuLJY/s400/pfcb.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart GFA Posted by downtowntrader | 5/13/2008 09:36:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GFA

Gafisa SA (ADR) (Public, NYSE:GFA)

While I can't predict how much longer this rally will last, I know that it's entirely possible that it can be much longer then everyone expects. As such, I continue to take the setups as they occur, and proper money management will get me out of the way when things finally reverse and head lower. GA looks like a classic buy at support candidate with limited downside. It broke out of a healthy base in early May, and is now coming back to retest the breakout area. I have no idea how long it will take to retest, but it looks like it has some more consolidation to go through. This should present some decent prices to get in and the breakout from the original base looks pretty healthy with a clean strong breakout on higher volume. The breakout was also to all time highs, although that's not saying much, since the stock has only been trading a little over a year. All in all though, it looks like a pretty good setup to monitor.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SCpCh-8_d4I/AAAAAAAABN4/BSwase6cnuI/s400/gfa.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart VMW Posted by downtowntrader | 5/12/2008 10:23:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis VMW

VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)

VMW was my number one pick for 2008 and unfortunately, I've gotten it very wrong as we reach the halfway mark. It has yet to fill the nasty gap down in February and remains down about 25% on the year. However, there is a chance it has bottomed, as it has had a fairly resilient rally off the lows. It set a higher pivot point, clearing the high in February, and could be attempting to set a higher low here. It cleared the recent down trend channel as well. While it may not be officially in an uptrend here, enough has happened to reclassify the trend to sideways or rangebound. If it does successfully set a higher low here, then it will challenge gap resistance near $78, which in of itself is a decent trade. However, there is a chance for longer term traders that VMW won't come near the IPO price ever again.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SCj89u8_d3I/AAAAAAAABNw/TokBWY2dttY/s400/vmw.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Happy Mothers Day Posted by downtowntrader | 5/11/2008 08:30:00 PM | 0 comments »

Happy Mothers Day to the few mom's reading Trading blogs on the Internets on Mothers Day. Hopefully you had a great day.

No Charts tonight.

Joey

Stock Chart ESRX Posted by downtowntrader | 5/08/2008 07:42:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis ESRX

Express Scripts, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ESRX)

As many of you know, I love finding stocks that are completing a pullback from a strong uptrend. ESRX fits the bill and has a few things going for it here. First, notice the clear and orderly pullback from all time highs shown as a declining channel from December through March. Also notice that from January through April, ESRX was quietly forming a base from which to resume the prior uptrend. The base resembles a reverse head and shoulders and has a clear breakout area near 68. It subsequently broke through the $68 level and came back for a classic retest of support. It now looks like it is turning back higher, and this could be the run that carries it to new highs. I worry sometimes when the signals are so perfect, because they could be setting up a bull trap, but this setup looks pretty good. They also have two Health Care conferences coming up and they could help bring institutional money into the stock.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SCOQKGeIMHI/AAAAAAAABNo/OoEzVQluChY/s400/esrx.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart CMC Posted by downtowntrader | 5/05/2008 08:27:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CMC

Commercial Metals Company (Public, NYSE:CMC)

Industrial Metals stocks have been on a tear lately as inflation is starting to move to the forefront again. It looks like some of these names are under accumulation with stocks like X, NUE, and WLT ripping higher daily. CMC is one that may be flying a little under the radar, but could be ready to move to center stage. It's been building a base that resembles a reverse head and shoulders. The weekly chart may also be hinting at a correction that has run it's course. Often these patterns may be setting up bull traps, but it's never known until after the fact. Speculating is a game of odds and the best we can do is find setups where the reward outweighs the risk we are taking. If CMC clears this base, it could very well head to new highs, and if it fails, the risk shouldn't be too great from this spot on the chart.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SB-mG5etqoI/AAAAAAAABNg/d5M6UoTLJ-U/s400/cmc.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart ARGN Posted by downtowntrader | 5/04/2008 08:28:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis ARGN

Amerigon Incorporated (Public, NASDAQ:ARGN)

Often the best time to enter a trend is on the first retrace after the breakout or breakdown. In ARGN's case, it broke down from a lengthy base in early April, and then retraced to test out the break down area a few days ago. The test failed miserably and it looks like ARGN may follow through on another leg down. It's interesting to note that ARGN has been notably weak in a time where the majority of stocks have been moving higher. While I prefer to not jump in after a stock has dropped 6% in a day, it does look like the trend is resuming and I will look for any near term retraces as a possible shorting opportunity.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SB5VCpetqnI/AAAAAAAABNY/D5wjQtqmvb8/s400/argn.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart BDK Posted by downtowntrader | 4/30/2008 08:46:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart BDK

The Black & Decker Corporation (Public, NYSE:BDK)

The markets reacted negatively to the Fed decision today, and while I remain unconvinced that the rally that was unfolding is dead, I think it's wise to start looking for some shorts in weak stocks. The indexes are at stiff resistance and there is a chance things head lower here. BDK is a stock that failed to move up with the markets over the last month and is trading at three year lows. It has been consolidating for all of 2008 after topping out last year, and while there is a chance it is building a base here, nothing sticks out as bullish here. It is more then likely still under distribution and could head to new multi-year lows if the markets roll over.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SBkTQZetqmI/AAAAAAAABNQ/vlBaxDSXENw/s400/bdk.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart DLTR Posted by downtowntrader | 4/27/2008 11:17:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DLTR

Dollar Tree, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DLTR)

I've been seeing a lot of these Reverse Head and Shoulder / Rectangle bottoming patterns in stocks recently. A large portion of these have been in retail stocks as well. So either retail stocks have been bottoming out, or this is a bull trap setting up. Either way, money can be made short term by playing the breakout attempts. I am showing a chart of DLTR below showing a clear move above the recent trading range. I am seeing similar charts in LOW, HD, and JWN. Volume was a little light on this one, and it has to contend with the 200 day sma above it, but overall it looks like it wants to test higher prices.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SBVCBpetqlI/AAAAAAAABNI/aKKRv0b7dVk/s400/dltr.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Dead Laptop Posted by downtowntrader | 4/24/2008 10:35:00 PM | 2 comments »

My laptop died on me when I needed it most. It blue screened last night and never recovered. While I have most of my data backed up, I ended up having to replace the laptop today and it looks like I will spend the better part of the next few days installing programs. This all of course comes at a time when I am confined to my family room in crutches, so none of this has been easy. There is a lesson here that I learned a long time ago however. Because I have a trading plan in place, with orders (or alerts) managing my exits for me, I was comfortable today despite not knowing what my positions were doing all day. I actually had a fairly active day with a few target hits and stop outs. Even the most discretionary of traders should have an emergency stop in place somehow. You never know what can happen, and it's better to have some assurance.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart FSTR Posted by downtowntrader | 4/22/2008 10:40:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart FSTR

L.B. Foster Company (Public, NASDAQ:FSTR)

FSTR's chart is showing a fairly common rectangle base that can also be interpreted as a W bottom or double bottom. While some may say that double bottom's only exist at the end of a downtrend, I prefer to look at what the price action is telling me, and disregard what the pattern is labeled. FSTR's base may be setting up for a reversal of the 1-2-3 correction it began last December, or it could easily be setting up as a continuation base. I prefer to look at this for an upside breakout, because it it close to doing so, and the longer term trend supports it. It looks like it attempted a breakout a couple of weeks ago, but it also has traded a pretty tight range after that refusing to give up too much ground. However, I just realized that FSTR reports earnings on the 24th of April, so that may be the catalyst for which direction it takes. I will not trade this at this point due to upcoming earnings, but I decided to post it anyways, because some readers may actually be holding it already, or some of you may have safer ways of playing it with option strategies.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SA6ivpetqkI/AAAAAAAABNA/shsHKbDT75M/s400/fstr.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis HD Posted by downtowntrader | 4/21/2008 09:27:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis HD

The Home Depot, Inc. (Public, NYSE:HD)

While HD has been in a downtrend for years, there seems to be some bullish behavior building in the stock. While it technically below the most recent long term base (looking at the weekly charts), it looks like it has formed a solid base on the daily charts and that it may attempt a run at the previous breakdown area. This would carry HD into the $32-34 area. The measured move of a breakout from the triangle base would carry to $35 which may be pushing it near term, but would yield a respectable trade.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SA1AGZetqjI/AAAAAAAABM4/DhSSQkeDs3A/s400/hd.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:06

Surgery still Sucks Posted by downtowntrader | 4/20/2008 08:57:00 PM | 2 comments »

I had my second reconstruction of my right Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) on Friday. Both of my knee injuries have been on freak accidents on the basketball court, and it's amazing how a split second decision by someone else can ruin your year. About 14 years have passed from my first surgery and all I can say is surgery still sucks. They have all these new techniques and options and the end result is not much different from how I felt the first time. If anything, I'm in more pain now. I was supposed to have a femoral nerve block but I had complete feeling in my entire leg immediately following the surgery. As hard as it is to believe, I had more pain on the night following surgery, then two days later when the anesthetics supposedly wear off. I also had one of those fancy On-Q pain pumps and while it may of helped (hard to tell), I basically have been bleeding out of it all weekend. Thank god that thing comes off tomorrow. I think I will feel much better once that thing is removed. On the bright side I was able to avoid "microfracture" surgery, despite "extensive" cartilage damage. I can't wait to see what awaits me in my golden years.

Between the Doctor and Physical Therapy, I don't think I will have much time left to trade tomorrow.
Good Luck,

Joey

Nice Rally Posted by downtowntrader | 4/16/2008 10:16:00 PM | 0 comments »

The markets rallied very strongly today as expected. This really could turn out to be a strong move as bear market rallies can be quick and violent for the shorts. I don't have time to post charts tonight but there are a few stocks I will mention. The homebuilders continue to look good. I like BZH, MTH, HOV and DHI in that space. I also like some retail names like JWN and DLTR. Other miscellaneous stocks I like are VIP, DE, CHNR and CTRP in addition to recent charts I've posted.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis RIO Posted by downtowntrader | 4/14/2008 10:13:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis RIO

Vale (ADR) (Public, NYSE:RIO)

One of my favorite plays is finding stocks near all time highs that have pulled back a little. It's amazing that I'm finding any at all recently, but there have been plenty. RIO is one that is very close to all time highs, and is pulling back gently into moving average support. With the general markets becoming near term oversold, there is a chance we have a few up days ahead. A general rally could provide enough fuel for RIO to break out to new highs. The weekly chart is beautiful sight to behold, and it's usually a pretty good idea to buy long term strength on short term weakness.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/SAQPgF8FuXI/AAAAAAAABMw/q04OJYMzr7k/s400/rio.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis NFLX Posted by downtowntrader | 4/10/2008 09:10:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis NFLX

Netflix, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NFLX)
NFLX has been quietly ripping higher most of this year, even as the markets have been floundering. Its been trading sideways for three weeks now and may be correcting through time rather than price. It looks like it is forming a pennant which is usually the most bullish of consolidation patterns . There is a chance there is no flag and that NFLX is entering a longer consolidation period, but that will only be known after the fact. While such a consolidation may have NFLX come back to test the low $30's, there is a chance that it begins another impulse move right here that will take it to all time highs. With 49% percent of the float short, it could get ugly for bears if that happens. Keep in mind that earnings are 4/21 for those that close out positions during earnings reports.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_66uxVofeI/AAAAAAAABMo/9BrvSO_F6ds/s400/nflx.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis CSIQ Posted by downtowntrader | 4/08/2008 08:47:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CSIQ

Canadian Solar Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSIQ)

Solar stocks have been on fire lately and buyers stepped in quickly after Mondays reversal. While some solar stocks have been all over the road, CSIQ has been forming a fairly steady base all year. It cleared the base on a closing basis last week and came back to retest the breakout this week. While there is a chance that CSIQ falls back into the base or worse yet, this is a bear trap, the chances are that the breakout will hold. The measured target for the double bottom / triangle breakout is near 34, so there is obviously a lot of potential here. I would probably stick with a volatility stop on this one, as it has some wiggle to it.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_wSn3EV-nI/AAAAAAAABMg/EgpkK1CWC8s/s400/csiq.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis NUE Posted by downtowntrader | 4/06/2008 09:53:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis NUE

Nucor Corporation (Public, NYSE:NUE)

Industrial Metal stocks have been moving higher recently, and if the markets rally, this could be a decent sector for a trade. NUE recently cleared a base and tagged new all time highs which is impressive considering the how bad the general markets have been. The stock has come back in a little and there could be a group of buyers waiting to buy who feel like they've missed the boat. Buyers have been stepping in around the 20sma and the mid $60's. Often when a stock has been consolidating just below all time highs, and then climbs back to new highs, it produces a short squeeze as shorts scramble to get out of the way. While I don't know if NUE will be able to break to new highs here, the ingredients are there for this stock to continue moving higher.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_l-wXEV-mI/AAAAAAAABMY/C8n7nHpsyN0/s400/nue.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis SXE Posted by downtowntrader | 4/02/2008 10:08:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis SXE

Stanley, Inc. (Public, NYSE:SXE)

SXE is a recently listed company with only a year and a half of public trading. It's been a good performer since inception with over a 100% move from IPO to all time high. It entered into a correction late last year along with the markets and may be ready to resume the prior trend at a point where the markets may help the ascent. It cleared the down trend channel it was following and is currently trading in a tight range which should lead to an impulse move once it's cleared. Of course it could head lower so longer term traders may prefer to wait for a close above $30.50 or so.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_Q9WHEV-lI/AAAAAAAABMQ/t2kDSvcnyFE/s400/sxe.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis INFA Posted by downtowntrader | 4/01/2008 11:09:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis INFA

Informatica Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:INFA)

INFA's chart is one of those that doesn't look all that organized and it doesn't lend itself to pretty trend lines and diagrams but it still looks bullish to me. It recently tagged a new 52 week high and then began a pullback. It has been bumping it's head up against a declining 20 day sma, but was able to close above it today. It looks like it's setting up for a retest of the 52 week high and possibly new highs.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_L6RHEV-kI/AAAAAAAABMI/JspldNASkGI/s400/infa.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis DHI Posted by downtowntrader | 3/31/2008 10:18:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DHI

D.R. Horton, Inc. (Public, NYSE:DHI)

I've been feeling a little bullish towards homebuilders for the past few weeks as they traded sideways while the markets extended their losses. While I wrote about BZH most recently, DHI is also looking like it may move higher as well. It has held well above the early January lows and although it's been volatile, it is trading in an organized manner. The recent trading range may be a continuation base which combined with the recent higher high and low, could signal the beginning of an uptrend. Homebuilders are still toxic in the media, and bad news is still on the way, but unlike financials, the charts are pointing to a possible bottom on them.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_GcS3EV-jI/AAAAAAAABLg/yEHGNFDDC3E/s400/dhi.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis BMRN Posted by downtowntrader | 3/30/2008 10:23:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis BMRN

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BMRN)

While I'm thinking the markets may be higher the next few days after three down days in a row to close out the week, BMRN looks like a good enough short setup to mention anyways. Often, when a stock breaks down from a chart pattern, moving average support, or some other form of support, it trades back up to the point of the breakdown before rolling back over. BMRN has closed weakly three days in a row as it trades up against resistance and while this is still a bullish looking chart on longer timeframes, it looks like there is more room on the downside as it corrects. It may even trade down into the previous breakout area or 200 sma which would provide a very nice target. I would set a stop around the 36.50 area with a target near 31.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R_BLV3EV-iI/AAAAAAAABLY/EzgneSrRGT8/s400/bmrn.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:07

Lack of posting Posted by downtowntrader | 3/26/2008 09:30:00 PM | 2 comments »

My apologies for the lack of posting this week. I had to travel for a business emergency and have been swamped. I haven't been able to track the markets at all, let alone scan for promising charts. I will be reviewing charts thoroughly this weekend, so I should have something up on Sunday.

Good Trading,

Joey

Options Expiration Tomorrow Posted by downtowntrader | 3/19/2008 08:57:00 PM | 1 comments »

I think I'll wait until next week before I make any move in this market. The last two days have hurt bulls and bears alike, and who knows whats in store tomorrow on options expiration. Here is an excerpt of my post on the other blog tonight.

Interesting that after two huge days in the markets we are really back to the middle of the recent weeks trading range. I'm really not seeing many of my setups developing which has been thankfully keeping me mostly out of this market. I am still inclined to think that if we break lower here that it will lead to a capitulation low fairly quickly. However, quickly doesn't necessarily mean it won't be steep if it does occur. The markets are so skittish lately, that I wouldn't be surprised at a 5-7% day in an index at this point.Click here for the rest.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis BZH Posted by downtowntrader | 3/18/2008 10:53:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis BZH

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (Public, NYSE:BZH)

I'm not too enthusiastic about buying stocks after a 400 point Dow rally in a bear market, but it does look like things will head higher for a while. I don't think we got enough of a wash out to form a longer term low, but there are several indicators pointing to an intermediate term rally. In looking at possible sectors for a long trade, Homebuilders are sticking out as a group to me. Most of them failed to make new lows on this recent move lower in the markets, and in fact they may of set higher lows with bullish divergences on several indicators. Several are close to challenging breakouts, but BZH is looking to me like one that may of already completed a chart pattern breakout. While the clearing of the reverse head and shoulders is negligible, it did close above the neckline and most of the recent volume has been on up days. I don't think I would buy it tomorrow after an 11% move today, but it's worthb stalking for a pullback.

One point to add is this is a possible position trade, because this sector may be bottoming out even if the the bear market has a ways to go. Keep in mind that even though the housing market may still be in trouble, stocks lead the economy and much of what will happen in the future has already been priced in. It may be early, but in general, Homebuilders and Financials tend to bottom while the rest of the markets are still falling, due to the accommodative environment of falling interest rates.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R-CAWCSHaHI/AAAAAAAABLQ/_A7TQzGhR00/s400/bzh.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Crazy week starts early Posted by downtowntrader | 3/16/2008 08:57:00 PM | 1 comments »

No charts tonight as I think I will let tomorrow unfold before trying to get into this market.

Here is what I posted in the other blog.

The upcoming week had enough catalysts to shake the markets up, but now we have two HUGE news items on a Sunday night. First, JP Morgan has agreed to buy Bear Sterns for a freaking incredible $2 a share. I couldn't believe it when I saw it. How does a stock go from $150's to $2 in half a year with no criminal activity? There are so many different ways to go.... Read the rest at downtowntrader.com. Good Luck out there,
Joey

Stock Chart Analysis RICK Posted by downtowntrader | 3/13/2008 09:50:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis RICK

Rick's Cabaret Int'l, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:RICK)

I guess strip clubs do well during recessions, because RICK's chart isn't showing much weakness. This looks like a very straight forward setup with a bullish looking consolidation range coinciding with a possible market rally. I like how RICK quickly bounced off the $19 area twice in the past month, forming a possible double bottom off the lower bollinger bands. I would prefer that price close above the 20 day sma before taking a position, but if things look ok tomorrow after 10 am, and it's above the 20 sma, then I may take the trade anyways.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R9nbdSSHaGI/AAAAAAAABLI/7uzksIg5f7k/s400/rick.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Very Cool Site Posted by downtowntrader | 3/11/2008 11:00:00 PM | 0 comments »

Gal Arav, founder of Instantbull.com appears to hit it out of the park again with a new project. He launched a new site that aggregates news in a very innovative way. The site is named Newsflashr and it promises a faster way to track all the most credible news sources. The site focuses on keywords when aggregating news and then displays popular keywords in a cloud like format. When you click on a keyword, it displays links to current news. I have to say, I tried it and it was very fast and I am really impressed at how innovative this idea is. Here are a few excerpts from their site: hot topics are extracted from all the most credible news sources in order to display the "collective intelligence" of all the top news editors results are displayed within a "hot topic news cloud" in order to transparently link matching news headlines at unprecedented client-side speed (competing services are slower due to their use of standard server-side retrieval operations) mainstream news and blog categories can be easily compared while viewing each news source's independent traffic rankings (provided by Alexa, an Amazon, Inc. company) search and track popular topics in news headlines up to 7 days old; search results are immediately displayed in a convenient summary matrix customize the "freshness" of highlighted topics and corresponding headlines [*]access all headlines on one concise page in either "feeds view" or "topics view", including photos and images in the news that match selected topicsI use google to aggregate my rss feeds, but I have always felt my news feeds were slow and overwhelming with stories I wasn't interested in. I can easily see myself using Newsflashr to check breaking news stories.
Check it out Newsflashr.com when you have a chance.
Joey

Simulpost from Downtowntrader.com Posted by downtowntrader | 3/10/2008 11:09:00 PM | 0 comments »

One of my most reliable indicators for identifying when the markets are getting oversold is Worden’s T2108 indicator. I’ve written extensively about it in the past, but basically it measure the percentage of stocks trading above their 40 day MA’s. It dipped below the important 20% level today. While this doesn’t mean the markets will bounce right away, it does mean stocks are being sold to historically low levels. It also doesn’t mean the market will put in a bottom and resume the bull market either. But when bearish sentiment gets to the extreme, it becomes unsustainable and gives way to a bounce back rally. We still haven’t had a capitulation day though, and I would prefer to see that. I thought we might get one tomorrow with TXN lowering the profit forecast and subsequently taking chip stocks down in the after hours, but our futures are currently pointing to a higher open. Maybe we get a 2 or 3 day weak bounce before the flushout. Kirk had a great post tonight with similar thoughts on where we are in the markets.
Good Trading,
Joey

Stock Chart Analysis GENZ Posted by downtowntrader | 3/09/2008 08:11:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GENZ

Genzyme Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:GENZ)

GENZ hit all time highs early this year and then entered a very orderly correction as the markets fell apart. It is near the upper range of the channel it was following through the correction, and could be poised to break out of the trading range. I often try to identify smaller trading ranges within a larger trend to help locate possible turning points. The trend clearly changed when GENZ broke under the blue channel highlighted below (sloppy trend line but you get the idea). An important note to add, is that just because a trend ends, it doesn't mean it will necessarily reverse. More often then not, the trend changes to a sideways trading range. In the case of GENZ, price didn't even make a lower low, so clearly there are still buyers looking to get in. It also has a clear stop loss area defined in the case that the trade doesn't work out.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R9R_OySHaEI/AAAAAAAABK8/5-3H-sO_vF4/s400/genz.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis MCHP Posted by downtowntrader | 3/05/2008 10:59:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis MCHP

Microchip Technology Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:MCHP)

While the markets have been looking weak to me, I noticed more then a few semiconductor equipment stocks tonight with interesting patterns developing. There are more then a few that look like they are attempting bottoming patterns. MCHP is one for instance. While it has plenty of overhead resistance, the recent action looks like a solid base. It has a clearly defined breakout point near $33, which if broken should lead to a filling of the gap near $36.If the markets decide to breakdown, then it shouldn't trigger, so this is a fairly easy play to call. Keep an eye on other stocks in this space like XLNX, AMAT and the Solar semi's as well. If the markets attempt a rally, then they may lead the way.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R89tB6y-BQI/AAAAAAAABK0/CWWOeFBp3jI/s400/mchp.JPGGood Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis SWY Posted by downtowntrader | 3/04/2008 09:43:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis SWY

Safeway Inc. (Public, NYSE:SWY)

The indexes are fighting to stay above some support levels, but it's looking like they may be broken on longer term timeframes. While we could find a bottom here, I think the path of least resistance is currently lower. With that in mind I am highlighting a chart of SWY which shows a clear breakdown from a long base. It had a sharp bounce today and could follow through if the markets gap higher tomorrow. I think that may be a gift as it has substantial resistance overhead. Keep in mind that all the traders who bought this in the last year are currently underwater. This is why broken bases offer such stiff resistance, as traders underwater jump at the chance to break even on any bounces. While this is not the most exciting stock to trade, the downside target should be near $25, which with a bounce to the $30's provides a decent potential trade opportunity.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R84KpKy-BPI/AAAAAAAABKs/ML8DWx6xj1s/s400/swy.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Laying Low Posted by downtowntrader | 3/04/2008 12:01:00 AM | 0 comments »

Got home late tonight and I'm not finding too many appealing charts. The indexes are right at support and it could go either way for the next few days. I'm still liking DE if the markets head higher, and maybe DUG if the markets head lower. TWM is setting up as a nice play on a pullback (markets heading higher). Not much else to add tonight.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis DE Posted by downtowntrader | 2/28/2008 09:33:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DE

Deere & Company (Public, NYSE:DE)

DE had a strong rejection of the $70 area when the stock started to rollover in January. If this were towards the end of a trend you could call it a V bottom or tweezer bottom, but regardless of where it formed, the message was clear: buyers were waiting for it to dip. It broke over the 50 sma a couple of days ago and looks like it is resting for another push. It settled on the 20 sma today in a pretty negative tape and if it can get back over $88, then I think it will cruise over $90 and head back to new highs.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R8dvkGsG4kI/AAAAAAAABKk/EvkIeYw9qDs/s400/de.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:08

Watchlist Posted by downtowntrader | 2/26/2008 10:38:00 PM | 0 comments »

I had some router problems after the power outages in South Florida today, so I'm just gonna post a few stocks on my watchlist for tomorrow. These are long picks if the market looks like it will follow through after 10 am. It is probably prudent to note that most of the indexes are right up against their declining 50 day sma's after being up three days in a row and the VIX is pulling back into a trend line. However, that doesn't mean they can't go higher for a few more days. The following stocks that are close to 52 week highs and looking like they are starting to turn back around.

ASTI
VMI
CPRT
PEG
ZOLL

If the markets are down tomorrow, then I will probably just stand pat or look to QID.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis ABAX Posted by downtowntrader | 2/25/2008 08:38:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis ABAX

Abaxis, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ABAX)

ABAX just finished pulling back into long term support and looks like it may be confirming it as support. The 26.75 area was previous resistance in 2006 and 2007, before being broken late last year. While it may not be ready to resume the rally from here, there are a few interesting possibilities here. First, a trade to the declining trend line looks likely and would yield a 10% plus move. For longer term traders, there appears to be a good chance that a longer term low is being put in here as well. It just reclaimed the 20 day sma on huge volume, although the volume could be misleading as it was just added to the SP600 index. It should challenge the 50 day sma next as it works it's way higher. The stop is pretty easy to figure as well, with a couple different spots below depending on your timeframe. The biggest drawback is that it already moved 5%+ today, so a little backing and filling would be ideal for a better entry.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R8NuZtow_-I/AAAAAAAABKc/DmxVMoI-fUE/s400/abax.JPGGood Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis MBT Posted by downtowntrader | 2/24/2008 11:26:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis MBT

Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (ADR) (Public, NYSE:MBT)

MBT came up in one of my scans tonight and I think it has decent potential. MBT had an amazing run from the middle of 2006 through early this year, but it has since fallen into a correction. It broke a trend line I had drawn on the daily chart, which signaled the end of the impulse move higher and the beginning of a correction or consolidation. However, if you pull up a weekly chart, it looks like MBT is bouncing off of a longer term trend line, which also lines up nicely with the theory of an end to the wedge like correction playing out. I always pay more attention to the longer term charts, as the underlying trend has a way of tugging on the shorter timeframes. So while many are looking at MBT as a stock that has topped, I would probably lean to playing this as a buy.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R8JD2dow_9I/AAAAAAAABKU/37PEOcG4kgI/s400/mbt.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis HOKU Posted by downtowntrader | 2/21/2008 08:47:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis HOKU

Hoku Scientific, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:HOKU)

Late this afternoon as all the solar stocks were making fresh lows, I saw HOKU trading higher. There is no news I can see that drove the stock, so I figured I would take a closer look tonight. In looking at the chart, it looks very sloppy and volatile. It can't seem to hold any breakouts, but it also resists falling apart. This is what ends up creating a solid base as market participant play the tug of war game with the price. One thing I did find interesting though, is how price has been bouncing off the 200 sma the past few dips. It has been very consistent after the breakdown that was followed up by a gap surprise. It looks to me like that gap will remained unfilled, and there is a better then decent chance that HOKU ends up forming some sort of important low in this area. And if by any chance HOKU gets over $14, then I pity whoever is stuck short.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R74vd9ow_8I/AAAAAAAABKM/6tmBOg9ep9s/s400/hoku.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis VIVO Posted by downtowntrader | 2/19/2008 10:11:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis VIVO

Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:VIVO)

VIVO is a stock that got away from me early last year when it broke out of a lengthy base. It had a very nice run before beginning a consolidation period last October. It looks like it had a false breakout this January before falling back into it's base. It just reclaimed it's 20 and 50 day sma today, and found support at the bottom of the large base it's forming. If it can get back over 33 then it should come back for a retest of the prior highs. The prior highs also happen to be all time highs so a short squeeze could be in the works.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R7ua0dow_7I/AAAAAAAABKE/CDbImNivJmY/s400/vivo.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis CHNR Posted by downtowntrader | 2/13/2008 09:52:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CHNR

China Natural Resources Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CHNR)

I meant to get this chart out last night, but I was having all sorts of problems with my internet connection. CHNR has attempted to end it's correction a couple of times, and it looks like it may be ready to follow through. This is a huge descending triangle that has formed here, and it looks like CHNR is already out of it. The first target is the last pivot high over 28. I think it will more then likely test the 32.85 pivot high, and while CHNR is capable of doing it in one fell swoop, it will probably pullback a few times before doing it. While this is a risky and volatile stock, it has been trading steadily and the reward is high enough to justify the risk.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R7OtAtow_6I/AAAAAAAABJ8/XR1QTIbqRMA/s400/chnr.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis WFR Posted by downtowntrader | 2/10/2008 08:09:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis WFR

MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (Public, NYSE:WFR)

WFR had one of the more interesting charts I looked at this weekend. WFR broke out of a long base last October and had a very strong impulsive move higher. But then it retraced the entire move which put the underlying trend into question. It is at a point where it came back to retest the breakout area and is trying to bounce back from it. The interesting part of this chart is how it is showing two different possible chart patterns forming. The first one is a large possible head and shoulders top. I highlighted this one in blue and the neckline is actually under strong horizontal support. If it were to break down and set a lower low under 59, then it would probably seal the deal on the H&S top. The other pattern is a smaller reverse head and shoulders which if successful, would negate the possible H&S top. I highlighted this pattern in red and if WFR breaks the neckline, it would project a target price of $95 which takes it close to prior highs. It looks to me like the smaller reverse head and shoulders has the higher probability of playing out, but either scenario looks like it would result in a great move.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R6-g2tow_5I/AAAAAAAABJ0/uq2GcFoQfYI/s400/wfr.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis CIM Posted by downtowntrader | 2/07/2008 09:13:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CIM

Chimera Investment Corporation (Public, NYSE:CIM)

CIM is a recent IPO in the financial sector which has largely been unaffected by earlier weakness in the sector. It has been steadily moving higher at a sustainable pace, and appears close to taking another step up. There is not much history to work with here, but CIM has yet to close under its 20 day sma. The financial sector also looks like it is beginning to lead when the markets move higher. Another bonus is that earnings are out of the way as of yesterday, so there shouldn't be any nasty surprises coming up. This looks like a decent opportunity as an intermediate term swing trade.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R6u7tjFw_xI/AAAAAAAABJs/3ydPHAcmfUQ/s400/cim.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis CPLA Posted by downtowntrader | 2/06/2008 09:24:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CPLA

Capella Education Company (Public, NASDAQ:CPLA)

CPLA looks like it has entered a downtrend, or at a minimum an intermediate correction. It has been in a healthy uptrend since IPO'ing just over a year ago, setting higher highs and lows. It traded sideways the last two months of last year before rolling over into a correction. It has started to set lower highs and lows which is the definition of a downtrend. It looks like it just set a pivot high and is starting to roll back over. This is an easy trade to manage because the stop loss area is very clear. If it trades and closes over 64.55, then the trend would be changing to at least sideways. If not, then it should be headed to lower lows, or at a minimum a retest of the January lows.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R6psVTFw_wI/AAAAAAAABJk/Een0p39VZgc/s400/cpla.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:09

Stock Chart Analysis DISCA Posted by downtowntrader | 2/05/2008 09:06:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DISCA

Discovery Holding Company (Public, NASDAQ:DISCA)

While I'm not convinced the markets are ready to break down on another new leg down, it is fairly obvious we are in a bear market and the path of least resistance is down. DISCA is a stock that may be a little extended to the downside for a new short position, but overall the large topping pattern looks very promising. While this is not a text book head and shoulders, the general pattern is one of a stock that breaking under a large congestion area. Typically, these patterns lead to lower prices as the majority of the trading volume (along with the traders) is underwater after an extended period and supply begins to overwhelm demand. I would look for DISCA to trade back up to the neckline area in the next few sessions where sellers will be waiting to ease their pain.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R6kWUTFw_vI/AAAAAAAABJc/e-eFr4WIYoY/s400/disca.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis OII Posted by downtowntrader | 1/30/2008 10:47:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis OII

Oceaneering International (Public, NYSE:OII)

OII recently broke down from an established trading range and has since been in a struggle to get back over the 200 day sma. While the volume hasn't been high, the breakdown looks pretty solid. It looks like a clear double top or descending triangle breakdown which has a good success rate. I also like that there is a clear stop loss area for my trading style just over the 200 day sma and the recent trading range. If the markets are going to head lower for a retest of the recent lows, then I think OII will go down with it.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R6FFEzFw_uI/AAAAAAAABJU/XSICAvMqQjY/s400/oii.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Waiting for Fed Posted by downtowntrader | 1/29/2008 08:27:00 PM | 2 comments »

No charts tonight as I prefer to wait until the Fed move announcement is digested tomorrow. There is a better then even chance we may not even know the next move until a few days pass either. I have a few plays in mind depending on the reaction such as OMCL, ZOLL, and CCC if the move is positive, or going the inverse ETF route if things break down.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis GYMB Posted by downtowntrader | 1/27/2008 09:29:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GYMB

The Gymboree Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:GYMB)

Retailers had a nice bounce the past few sessions as lower rates and extra money courtesy of a stimulus plan are giving hope to many that a recession can be avoided. However, the threat of a recession is very real, and most retailers will suffer if consumers are tapped out. While there is still a chance of further rallying from retailers due to coming news related to a stimulus package, some are starting to look like they are ready to pullback again.

GYMB has had a sharp move off it's lows recently and is actually up nicely for the year, which is shocking considering how poorly the markets have fared. While I would typically avoid shorting a stock showing such strong relative strength, GYMB is still technically in a down trend and is up against stiff resistance. It's also had enough of a rally to work off any oversold readings it had. The chart below is showing a candle pattern named an evening star reversal pattern which often kicks off a reversal. The fact that it occurred just below the 200 day sma and horizontal resistance validates the signal further in my opinion. I would think $37 will remain as resistance but the nice thing about trading a pattern like this is the clear signal to cover the short if it doesn't work out.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R50-bDFw_tI/AAAAAAAABJM/2dF4I9glBNU/s400/gymb.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis OMCL Posted by downtowntrader | 1/22/2008 09:58:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis OMCL

Omnicell, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:OMCL)

I had a very difficult time finding charts that were in a good buying position without the huge risk of a wide stop below todays trading range. Most stocks had huge candles with long tails indicating reversals, but most are probably too risky to hold at this point. There is still a better then average chance that the markets come back to retest todays lows in the near future regardless of whether this is an important low or not. I say low, because it is highly doubtful that a "bottom" is in.

Looking at OMCL, it also had a wide range day today, but even at the lowest reaction low, it held near and above the 20 day sma. It also looks like it has cleared a triangle like trading pattern and actually cleared it over the past few very negative market days. It has been showing great relative strength which may lead to higher prices soon, especially if the markets begin to rebound. The one thing that stands out though, is that it may be a little overbought near term and therefore could pull back too, but it is worth keeping an eye on. Basically this is a strong stock in weak tape and therefore warrants consideration.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R5avfzFw_sI/AAAAAAAABJE/PSJYsIdgnjA/s400/omcl.JPGGood Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis FCN Posted by downtowntrader | 1/16/2008 09:24:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis FCN

FTI Consulting, Inc. (Public, NYSE:FCN)

Looking at the chart for FCN, you couldn't tell that the markets have been mired in a correction. It just hit new all time highs in December and has been drifting back in an orderly fashion. It's been finding support at the 50 day sma all along the uptrend and there should be a good chance that it repeats a bounce here. This is one of those situations where a clear stop can be placed and you should know fairly quickly whether the trade will work out. I would wait for price to get over 60 before taking this trade though.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R468smX5qRI/AAAAAAAABI8/MDJlTECEs9Q/s400/fcn.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis FLIR Posted by downtowntrader | 1/14/2008 11:19:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis FLIR

FLIR Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FLIR)

FLIR's chart is looking interesting as it is showing a lot of bullish divergences. Take a look at how price is making new lows, yet all the indicators are making higher lows. This is warning that momentum is slowing and that the tide amy soon change. FLIR has also been drifting back towards a previous breakout area and that may lend support as well. I would only be interested in a close above the 20 day sma as a starting point, but all the ingredients are here for an end to the consolidation followed by renewed strength. FLIR announced a new contract after hours today and that may provide the catalyst for a move. Hopefully it won't gap excessively tomorrow.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R4w4LWX5qQI/AAAAAAAABI0/WrI9jg1jMyw/s400/flir.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis CHL Posted by downtowntrader | 1/10/2008 09:14:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CHL

China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) (Public, NYSE:CHL)

CHL has been on a heck of an uptrend over the past few years. Recently it doubled from June through November before settling into a consolidation period. It has been trading in a symmetrical triangle over the past two and a half months and could be ready to break to the upside as soon as tomorrow. Usually these types of patterns are continuation patterns that breakout before the reach the apex of the triangle. Since CHL is getting close to the apex, it reclaimed the 20 sma, and has a bullish divergence on the MACD, I think the odds greatly favor the upside breakout.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R4bRNWX5qPI/AAAAAAAABIs/UgdVMMm9gzA/s400/chl.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis AIRM Posted by downtowntrader | 1/09/2008 11:04:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis AIRM

Air Methods Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:AIRM)

AIRM has a chart that I am looking for more and more each day. It is a stock that has outperformed greatly over the past year and which appears near the end of a correction. It has been pulling back in an expanding wedge like pattern and looks like it is trying to form a higher low here. The key here, is not the chart pattern or what it's named. It's the fact that a range has been established and that it may not honor the full range this time. If that turns out to be the case then it shows that bulls are becoming more aggressive by not waiting for the full trip to the bottom of the pattern. This would lead to an eventual breakout and thus a higher high. Of course this is a hypothesis at this point, but it merits watching.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R4WZu2X5qOI/AAAAAAAABIk/U5onkA_34ik/s400/airm.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis IMA Posted by downtowntrader | 1/06/2008 07:16:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis IMA

Inverness Medical Innovations, Inc. (Public, AMEX:IMA)

IMA completely disregarded the bearish bias on Friday and ended clearing the highs of the past 15 sessions. In doing so, it successfully cleared a downtrend line and reclaimed it's 20 day sma. There are also some bullish divergences on the indicators and if the general indexes bounce back after 6 or 7 down days in a row, then IMA could mount a little rally. Another bullish scenario I will be looking for is a series of narrow range candles as it bases above the 20 day sma. This would probably be the ideal scenario as it builds fuel for a more substantial rally. Stocks like these are worth keeping an eye on because if investors are stepping up and buying when the markets are tanking, then it should continue to climb when the markets cooperate, and at worst, not fall as hard as the rest of the carnage.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R4GO8WX5qNI/AAAAAAAABIc/aP7uc9VORS8/s400/ima.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Contests 2008 Posted by downtowntrader | 1/02/2008 09:55:00 PM | 2 comments »

It was a very negative start to the year. The major indexes all were down over 1%. It looks like we are headed for a retest of the November lows, but it's a tough call to make with only one day completed into the new year. Several sites are running stock contests this year and I entered two in addition to my annual one. The first is being held by Ragin Cajun over at madstocks.com. Basically, you pick one stock using 2007 closing price as the start and closing price of 2008 as the finish. I chose VMW. The second was a contest specifically for bloggers hosted by sinletter.com and runs through the first quarter. In this one you pick three stocks but the entry price is the highest price the stock hits on 1/1. I chose VMW, HOLX, and CMED. I've also been running my private stock contest for a couple of years now and our picks were due today. I will go over last years results next week, but suffice to say it was a disappointing year. This year we expanded to 4 stocks each in an effort to minimize the impact of any certain stock. Interestingly, we have had a combined positive gain both years so far if stocks were bought equally weighted. Here are the choices of each of the participants;
Joey VMW, HOLX, TASR, GSOL
Rob CCC, XOM, ATVI, KNM
Btuff ASEI, SYNL, TGE, IVN
Paige SNCR, MFN, LMRA, IVN
Doc GDX, NAK, SLW, LIHR
Lionshare AAPL, GOOG, ASTI, AIZ
Some of the others I was considering were OXPS, EXM, BZH, CMED, SOHU, QDEL, ANSS and LKQX.
I am still on vacation so posting will be light the next few days, but look for a regular posting to resume Sunday night.
Good Trading,
Joey

Happy Holidays Posted by downtowntrader | 12/23/2007 07:30:00 PM | 0 comments »

I'd like to take the time to wish everyone out there a Happy Holiday Season. Hopefully the year treated you well, and if not, keep in mind that everyday is a new opportunity to start over in any aspect of your life.

Regular posting will resume after the New Year.

Happy Holidays,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis LOGI Posted by downtowntrader | 12/20/2007 10:14:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis LOGI

Logitech International SA (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:LOGI)

LOGI has been consolidating bullishly for the past two months after a huge breakaway gap. The breakaway gap followed a year long consolidation and it looks like this gap may not get filled. LOGI is just starting to turn higher off the 20 day sma and it may be ready to breakout to new highs. Breaking the trend line marking the most recent pivot highs would be the first objective on it's way to the breakout. Stochastics is also starting to turn up as well.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R2swqmX5qMI/AAAAAAAABIU/S9b-DeO-CQU/s400/logi.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

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hefeiddd 发表于 2009-3-18 21:10

Stock Chart Analysis GEOY Posted by downtowntrader | 12/18/2007 08:41:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis GEOY

GeoEye Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GEOY)

GEOY had a high volume breakout in October and has rose steadily for almost two months. It has pulled back to it's rising 50 day sma. The bollinger bands are contracting as the stock becomes oversold, which could be a recipe for an upcoming impulsive move up. If the markets show some strength the next few days, then GEOY could have enough strength to clear the downtrend line shown and then test the recent highs over 34.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R2h28GX5qLI/AAAAAAAABIM/7JkaMkyZxOg/s400/geoy.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis BNT Posted by downtowntrader | 12/17/2007 09:50:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis BNT

Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Public, NYSE:BNT)

I'm gonna mix things up a bit tonight and show a weekly chart instead of a daily one. While I look at weekly charts of every stock I watch, I rarely post them. My success rate is much better when the weekly and daily charts line up with a trade signal. In this case, BNT looks pretty good on the daily chart closing positively in a weak market today, and holding above it's 20 and 50 day moving averages. It looks close to making new 52 week highs, and the weekly chart shows that it may of already cleared a reverse head and shoulder bottom. The right shoulder is not perfect, but it does show a clear picture of bulls rejecting single digit prices. I think the volume pattern is a little weak here, but the price action looks positive. There is a decent chance that if BNT gets over 14, it may follow suit and test it's two year high in the low 20's.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R2c1nGX5qKI/AAAAAAAABIE/kK5bkuJw0Ec/s400/bnt.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis HOLX Posted by downtowntrader | 12/16/2007 08:54:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis HOLX

Hologic, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:HOLX)

HOLX held up pretty well in a weak day Friday. It just hit new all time highs a few weeks ago and the subsequent pullback has been rather tame. It looks like it's in a well defined trading range and it's worth watching to see if it can break through the range soon. If the markets show strength in the next day or two, it may even be worth entering a little early if it can clear $66. A successful breakout would have an estimated target of $77. Of course, the general markets will probably have to cooperate.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R2XXMmX5qJI/AAAAAAAABH8/uv0DKkyo_xc/s400/holx.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis RIMM Posted by downtowntrader | 12/13/2007 09:26:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis RIMM

Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)

Here is another of this years hot momentum stocks coming off a correction. While I'm not banking on RIMM heading to new highs, I wouldn't rule it out either. What is pretty clear to me is that RIMM is coming off the bottom trading range resembling a falling wedge. These can be bullish continuation patterns, but regardless of the ultimate success of failure of the overall pattern, it looks like it will at least attempt a move to the upper boundaries of the wedge. I mentioned in my DRYS post below, that this is also window dressing season, which I think helps a name like RIMM. Window Dressing is when funds pick up a stock that performed well during the year in order for it to show up in the end of the year holding report. This way they can show their investors how they hold leading stocks in their portfolio. Here is some more information on "window dressing". RIMM looks like it may fill that breakdown gap in the 110-114 area, which may also coincide with the descending trendline in a few days.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R2HqHNIj35I/AAAAAAAABH0/hdG06eVv8B8/s400/rimm.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis DRYS Posted by downtowntrader | 12/13/2007 09:23:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis DRYS

DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)

DRYS has been one of this years best performing stocks, with a bottom to top run of over 110 points. It has recently been in a correction, along with other dry shipping stocks. While it's too early to say if the stock completed it's correction, it is looking like it's ready to test the waters up above. It had a nice bounce off the 70 dollar mark up near $100, and then settled down nicely on it's 20 day sma. A higher high tomorrow may provide a nice entry with a target near $120. Of course nothing is set in stone as this is a game of probabilities, but with year end window dressing season upon us, and one of the years hottest stocks coming off a correction, I like the chances for this moving higher.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R2Hpa9Ij34I/AAAAAAAABHs/hGRMv7Ki854/s400/drys.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Quick Hit Posted by downtowntrader | 12/11/2007 10:27:00 PM | 0 comments »

I'm feeling a little under the weather, so no charts tonight. The markets reversed course today and there are a few different scenarios that could play out. This really could just be a normal pullback off a rally high, or it could turn into a lower high which could then begin a primary bear market. The way I'm playing it is to honor my stops in my existing holdings that are acting well, while nibbling on the short side / inverse funds. A few short candidates I am looking at are JNY, RUTH, MRO, CAM, and YRCW. On the inverse fund side, I like DUG and possibly FXP.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis MCRS Posted by downtowntrader | 12/09/2007 10:11:00 PM | 1 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis MCRS

MICROS Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:MCRS)

While I'm thinking the markets will have a pullback over the next few sessions, I am still bullish overall. MCRS is a stock that I can possibly buy in a couple different scenarios. If the market strength continues, then I can play MCRS as a triangle breakout with the recent bounce off the 20 day sma as a possible stop loss area. If the markets are weak, then I may look to buy MCRS towards the bottom of the triangle, since the odds are that this will prove to be a continuation base. If the second scenario presents itself, I would still look for it to turn back up before buying. In either scenario, the end result is to looks for the stock to eventually clear the current base and move towards $80.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R1yuotIj33I/AAAAAAAABHk/FS_CMmlgKP8/s400/mcrs.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis URRE Posted by downtowntrader | 12/06/2007 08:47:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis URRE

Uranium Resources, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:URRE)

Metals reversed off their lows this morning and had a very strong session at an important area in their charts. While I'm a little nervous about the general markets after their quick rebounds over the past week, metals look like they are just starting to resume their uptrends. URRE is a chart that is looking pretty decent with it just a couple of points from all time highs. It recently cleared a large base and has come back to retest the breakout area. If it holds this area then a reasonable target is near 18-19.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R1imd9Ij32I/AAAAAAAABHc/dbbto2jDEUg/s400/urre.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis CDS Posted by downtowntrader | 12/05/2007 11:30:00 PM | 2 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis CDS

China Direct Inc. (Public, AMEX:CDS)

I commented on the other blog last night that I've been seeing some money flow back to the China sector and today there were some large moves in several names. It's tough to find good risk vs reward setups coming out of sound bases in this sector, but I think CDS may fit the bill. CDS is one of the few lower priced China stocks that didn't retrace their full breakouts. In fact, it has held an orderly channel that looks like a large bull flag. It looks to me like it just cleared the consolidation base and if it behaves like a pennant breakout, then the target takes it to 18. Also, while this is not a high volume stock, the trading volume is enough that slippage shouldn't be a huge issue.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R1d7DNIj31I/AAAAAAAABHU/T-CY3tpYgzc/s400/cds.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis PAAS Posted by downtowntrader | 12/02/2007 09:41:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis PAAS

Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:PAAS)

The gold bugs index ($HUI) had a break out on the weekly chart in September with several mining stocks hitting multi year highs along with it. Most have been under pressure recently and are in an area where a pullback may be complete. PAAS for instance surged in late October and early November and has since retraced about a third of the rally from top to bottom. It is now oversold and sitting near the previous breakout area which could provide support. Fridays low may end up holding for quite some time.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R1N15lH-SfI/AAAAAAAABHM/sRW8RYJ12dw/s400/paas.JPG

Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

Stock Chart Analysis OMCL Posted by downtowntrader | 12/02/2007 09:36:00 PM | 0 comments »

Stock Chart Analysis OMCL

Omnicell, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:OMCL)

OMCL recently broke out to all time highs, but ended up retracing the whole breakout. While this is not normally a bullish sign, the fact is that it did end up holding support and it has been forming a base over previous resistance. The small base it has been working on looks like a reverse head and shoulders with a projected target over 30 if successful. It looks like a close over 27 would seal the deal so I am watching to see how it handles the 50 day sma as resistance.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_HFOJIW9Nr98/R1Nsrn8UMZI/AAAAAAAABG8/rnw0n1z33Vo/s400/omcl.JPG
Good Trading,

Joey

for more analysis, check out downtowntrader.com

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