从技术面看,在20元以下选择逐级洗筹说明主升浪并非在12-----24元段.结合基本面:1新光的一二其预期.2.二期的全面投产带来的业积增长3.英利的分拆上市所带来的价值重估.4IPO后三期的产能暴增带来收益.5.主营变压器随十一五景气度的不断提升.6.代工,原料保章.规模效应.劳动力成本,品牌,税收优惠,,,,,,,,,所带来的成本下降,毛利率提升等等无不让我们对威威的主升浪产升想象:25----50.元.唯一需要的是时间.!!请参阅:600583的K线. 希望大家要耐得住寂寞.做一个真正的骑马高手..
-----------------------------Danny
[ 本帖最后由 PATTAYA 于 2006-4-4 12:33 编辑 ]
楼上真会编
、天威还要继续调整!
如果说上次二月初天威14时我说它不会超15,那么这次有几个相似的情况没有太大变化,值得警惕!一.是盘口方面上次春节前一天的拉升和前期的放量表明节后即将拉升,节后头一天大盘十分配合大幅上扬,该股却逆勢下跌,机构在大家一片看好的时间出局了!这次该股连涨10天先大盘而启动,在17元上方调整4天并战稳,如此强势却在大盘上扬时再次逆势下跌!在大家极度看好时(或者说被诱导的极度看好)逆势下跌,不怕损失大量筹码?有一种可能,就是短线资金对筹码的缩定要求不是很高!二是再拉升过程中大量的股民再看好,每一次的回调众多股民都在抢筹,这从论坛的发言就可看出!尤其搜狐论坛人气极旺,而你看别的大幅上扬100%200%的股票没有多少股民关注!天威还要继续调整
最重要的是该股月线周线走势难看!放量突破后按惯性也的大幅上扬,但该股却突破后嘎然而止,有人说这是突破后的回抽,但这有两个问题,周线突破后并没上扬,怎么回抽??更要命的是它突破的是长达6个月的箱体,这么长的箱体一但被突破,应该是加速,怎么周线突破后立即在箱体上沿不动了??尤其月线,你见过哪个高位横盘突破后拉出长上影的股票能第二个月又拉出大阳线的???天威还要继续调整
结论:天威还要继续调整,短期不会大幅上扬!调整周期至少3个星期已上!再局部牛市的情况下,资金成本十分重要,个人建议长线看好可继续持有,但应分仓角逐热点,防止该股长期震荡,挣指数不挣钱!短线可在冲高时出局,等季报出台! 550是目前两市第一人气股是确定无疑的!现在就是不知道主力在这样的人气下能拿到多少筹码,从去年年报看,550的筹码还很分散,远远没到集中的程度,一旦主力对550的筹码吸筹完毕,550将爆发惊人的行情! 原帖由 yhohnsm 于 2006-4-4 13:06 发表550是目前两市第一人气股是确定无疑的!现在就是不知道主力在这样的人气下能拿到多少筹码,从去年年报看,550的筹码还很分散,远远没到集中的程度,一旦主力对550的筹码吸筹完毕,550将爆发惊人的行情!
问题就在这,在这种人气下主力什么时间能拿够筹码!个人认为必需要大盘的配合,所以在大盘中级行情中,不排除主力压住价格,事实主力也是这么做的,所以天威这波行情基本没大戏,只有短线机会! 不可否认,天威基本面有独特的亮点,但什么时机会被挖掘,也许是很久以后!就像申能,它的收入50%以上来源于天然气,在资源股大涨的情况下却得不到游资挖掘!
再次给你16元下吃货的机会,散户依然在抢
想买誰时买的到! 还是那句老话：立足技术面的，要把握涨跌的节奏，当然其中滋味需要敏感的心灵去体会；
立足基本面的，要把握趋势的方向，当然其中的无常需要坚忍的心灵去承受。
呵呵，我买
16.1815.92
七分之二的资金补回了。等于做了2元钱的差价。
[ 本帖最后由 qinjiayu 于 2006-4-4 13:51 编辑 ] 原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-3-31 14:46 发表
小心!
当时股价探底15.55拉升16.35. 真相隐藏在表象之后! 原帖由 qinjiayu 于 2006-4-4 13:49 发表
16.18
15.92
七分之二的资金补回了。等于做了2元钱的差价。
恭喜!剩下的七分之五明日继续啊,肯定比今天低的机会回给你的,省着点用啊,别到13的时候没钱了啊!
明日
跌!再次进入大盘狂涨，他横盘阶段，！
只是不知这次它要横几个月？ 原帖由 雨下走好路 于 2006-4-4 14:43 发表只是不知这次它要横几个月？
大盘狂涨，他横盘???
是横盘？ 原帖由 qinjiayu 于 2006-4-4 13:48 发表
还是那句老话：
立足技术面的，要把握涨跌的节奏，当然其中滋味需要敏感的心灵去体会；
立足基本面的，要把握趋势的方向，当然其中的无常需要坚忍的心灵去承受。 ...
我们缺少的可能就是坚忍的心灵,不然主力不会这样嚣张,主力坚信这样做会达到他的目的! After some anticipation, we were rather pleased to see the IPO go forward too for thepure-play
solar PV maker SunTech Power (STP) late in the Fourth Quarter of 2005. Like SPWR, this is another
opportunity to add to the Index another unique PV equity and one that helps to capture daily
movement of solar stocks.
SunTech is based in China: they make relatively lower-cost polycrystalline and mono-crystalline
PV products. On the day of their IPO, shares in STP increased about 41%, which by coincidence
was about the same that SunPower saw on its first day of trading. Much like a recent initial offering
for SPWR, this indicates there may be some investor interest in solar. Being a foreign firm,their shares
trade as American Depository Shares: hence adding this non-U.S. company to the WilderHill Index
(ECO) might to some limited extent help also mitigate (U.S.) country-specific risk and further the
non-correlation of ECO with majorindexes.
We’re mindful too that modern portfolio theory holds that diversification beyond just one nation can
reduce risk and assist long-term performance. But most importantly, we’re interested in STP mainly
for its Indexing value in the solar sector.
SunTech is based in the Jiangsu Province of China and although it’s a young company,their growth to
date is strong: in the first nine months of 2005, net revenues increased to $137 million (nearly tripling)
from the year prior. They aim to use IPO proceeds to expand research, manufacturing and to lower
costs. They expect to spend about $100 million from the IPO proceeds to prepay for raw materials
such as silicon, $40 million to expand manufacturing, and $20 million on research and development.
At present their cost per watt is fairly good at $2.30 and they’re especially notable as a PV maker
that has been profitable annually since 2003 (almost since start-up).They’re able to make use of
China’s relatively inexpensive materials and labor, and hope to reduce cost per watt significantly further.
They presently have sizable sales into Germany (and Japan where high retail costs being paid per watt
to utilities have been a boon to PV sales, but government PV subsidies in Japan are going to end).
To some extent,a lack of history contributes to dearth of knowledge about particulars of this company
and their technologies specifically. SunTech was founded in 2001, by Dr. Zhengrong Shi and he has a
scientific background in solar research.The newer holding company “Suntech Power Holdings Co.,Ltd.”
was recently incorporated in the Cayman Islands and it has become the ultimate holding company of
Suntech. One drawback to be sure, is they’re clearly a far less transparent business than say, a
U.S.-based solar manufacturer; there’s real differences stemming from China’s nascent business
regulatory environment, language difficulties, distance, etc. Perhaps to some extent that uncertainty
and hence the greater risk is factored into their stock pricing, yet they have met particular thresholds
to be listed here on U.S. exchanges.
A core question we ask ourselves as an Index provider, is whether STP shares help tocapture and
track clean energy. They should be in a business that stands to benefit substantially from any societal
transition toward cleaner energy and conservation, they should be a significant company for clean
energy, have some technological influence, and be relevant to preventing pollution in the first place.
We’re satisfied that SunTech meets these criteria, though we note issues of transparency, etc.
They’re now a top-10 producer of solar cells — around the fifth largest by capacity — although growth
seems almost the norm lately for many PV makers(chart source: Photon International,and Piper Jaffray).
The company claims its average conversion efficiency rates are 16.5% for its monocrystalline cells, and
15% for its polycrystalline cells. Those rates aren’t as high as those at SunPower for example, but they
are respectable and STP may hold growing promise as a low-cost and high volume pure-play producer,
especially going into the important Japanese, German, and Chinese markets. The company claims it
increased manufacturing capacity by 12-fold the past three years (from a base very near-zero,however)
and that they’re planning to double capacity again by the end of 2006.
A ‘role’ too for SunTech for the Index, is that being a fast-growing PV pure-play, its share price should
(pessimistically) drop robustly — should government solar subsidies be pared back unexpectedly,
oil prices drop dramatically, or other big negative news hit PV. We seek to capture sharp decline,
just as fully as upwards movements. On the other hand, we note that fast-growing China is increasing
its silicon capacity. In Q4 for example, a 100-unit order was placed to purchase DSS multi-crystal silicon
ingot wafer growth furnaces from GT Equipment Technologies.
That will allow ‘LDK Solar Hi-Tech’ based in Jiangxi, China to swiftly ramp their annual wafer fabrication
capacity from 75 MW at present, to 200 MW. LDK aims to expand up to 400 MW by 2008. This
follows on the prior furnace orders from Chinese companies, such as from Baoding.
Finally we note SunTech purports to be a major supplier of PV for China’s government
— a domestic market which may one day conceivably grow much larger than Japan or Germany.
SunTech is involved in China’s ‘Light the West” Program and is PV provider for their foreign aid
program. China has made ambitious claims about their desire to build smart energy-savings,
to grow renewables, and about clean energy in general
[ 本帖最后由 the_top 于 2006-4-4 16:15 编辑 ]