看一看老牌波浪家怎么分析吧！
(Interview) Chinese Stocks: Here Comes the "Boom"New Shanghai Composite insights from Elliott Wave International’s Intraday Asian Stocks Analyst
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By Alexandra Lienhard
Mon, 27 Jul 2015 13:30:00 ET
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In this new interview, our Intraday Asian Stocks Analyst, Matthew Gress, tells you what Monday’s (July 27) sharp decline in the Shanghai Composite means for the index going forward.Matthew's forecasts focus on the ASX, Shanghai Composite, Nifty, NIKKEI, Hang Seng and other key regional indexes. Learn more about this service here >>
********Alexandra Lienhard: Matthew, the Shanghai Composite just fell 8.5% in a single day. Last Thursday (July 23), you emailed an alert to several people here at the office saying that the "ABC rally from the recent lows nears a conclusion" in Chinese stocks. In other words, you expected this rally to end. Why? Could you explain what made you suspicious of the rally?
Matthew Gress: Hi Alex. As I mentioned in our previous interview (read here), before the recent rally began, the Elliott wave pattern in the Shanghai Composite’s charts had already called for it. When it started, we knew it would most likely develop as a 3-wave, corrective move. We’ve been watching the rally develop, and last week it satisfied our minimum upside expectations when Chinese stocks rose above 4035.
What’s more, the final push lacked strong upside momentum, and the entire bounce from the 3374 low took on a corrective, three-wave appearance (partial Elliott wave labels shown -- ed.):
Therefore, the focus shifted toward signs of a bearish reversal.
Alexandra: What Elliott wave pattern is the Shanghai Composite tracing out now, after Monday's sell-off? And what does that imply for the trend over the next few days?
Matthew: The ABC rally you see in the chart above is probably only the second leg of a larger correction. If our interpretation is correct, the index has further to fall. We have to reserve the actual price targets for subscribers, you understand, but suffice it to say that the risk is to the downside.
Alexandra: You mentioned “risk” -- how do you use the Wave Principle to limit risk?
Matthew: When I first look at a chart, I try to identify which parts of the price pattern look corrective (i.e., developing in three waves) versus impulsive (i.e., developing in five waves). Is the price in a choppy and corrective range, or does it show notably long price bars in an impulsive wave form? It’s really as simple as that; that's you basic visual assessment. Then, I proceed with placing the appropriate Elliott wave labels on the chart: "1-2-3-4-5" for impulses and "ABC" for corrections (as you see in the chart above). At this point, you can start talking about risk-management.
One way to limit risk is to make sure that the wave pattern that you think is unfolding actually follows the rules of Elliott. For example, one rule says that wave two cannot retrace more than 100% of wave one. So, if you are tracking what you think are waves 1 and 2, looking to jump in for the third wave rally, then the start of wave 1 is the point where you know your "1-2" wave count is wrong:
And there's your “risk.” If wave two retraces the entire length of wave one, then it's not a wave two, and it's time get out.
This is the beauty of Elliott. We are not grinding out "market fundamentals." Instead, we look for one pattern to end -- and another one to begin. That gives you both price targets and levels where to place your stops, for risk-management.
图 :#DAXIAO {:7_317:} 三波反弹构成 一个连接 2个大型下跌的联接浪X 浪 更好 为何不能看成是一个五浪的上升，C 是一个延长的五浪，由于三浪太强，所以，五浪走得慢，接下来应该是一个五浪结构的C向上的。 这种画浪只能算是初级。:#DAXIAO 根本不顾内部细小结构的组成
属于形态划分
不是结构划分 我发现老外的浪都是追求简介，不少时候准确度 还行。 那是个C吗？表示怀疑:loveliness: 老外的意思是又一大波杀跌浪要来了，看国家队怎么玩了 此波浪划分是正解！
看不懂的说明技术不精、需要修炼 本帖最后由 agas2003 于 2015-7-28 12:40 编辑
关键是abc是反弹结束还是反弹中的一个浪。。。有两种可能http://bbs.macd.cn/thread-2672329-1-1.html 次级调整往往结束于次一级4浪行走空间。3400-2400 之间啊:#DAXIAO 本帖最后由 haoyoo 于 2015-7-28 15:03 编辑
chxxfzw 发表于 2015-7-28 12:25 static/image/common/back.gif
此波浪划分是正解！
看不懂的说明技术不精、需要修炼
这就不一定了。原则上应该排除这样画。
haoyoo 发表于 2015-7-28 09:23 static/image/common/back.gif
这种画浪只能算是初级。
这图绝对是错的。这家公司是个挂羊头卖狗肉的~~~ haoyoo 发表于 2015-7-28 14:50 static/image/common/back.gif
这就不一定了。原则上应该排除这样画。
认为这种图是正确的人才是真正需要进一步锻炼的。 :#JINGYA 这样画是极其合理的 有其它画法的可以贴图上来 交流 呵呵 错是必然的。 关键看是错得是否太离谱。 既然5178--3373是5个浪3373-4184 是3个浪那么这个5-3-5的雏形基本已成，那么就剩下检验这个5-3-5的C浪（5个小浪） 。
由此图可见的股票交易策略是 4184 以后应是卖出 空仓。今天你空了吗？这才是关键。:#DAXIAO 资叫兽 发表于 2015-7-28 15:20
这图绝对是错的。这家公司是个挂羊头卖狗肉的~~~
过一个月再回头看！ 逍遥丨随风丶 发表于 2015-7-28 15:53
呵呵 错是必然的。 关键看是错得是否太离谱。 既然5178--3373是5个浪3373-4184 是3个浪那么这个5-3-5的 ...
你的思维太僵化！
那样划之后只能是向下的C?
你不会想复合浪？
、 chxxfzw 发表于 2015-7-28 18:26 static/image/common/back.gif
你的思维太僵化！
那样划之后只能是向下的C?
你不会想复合浪？
不是我僵化的问题单独一个5段浪能构成一个完整的调整浪吗？ 弄明白这个问题，你才有资格上这发言。
否则想你这般连起码的波浪知识都不具备的， 你又如何知道我看下跌的必然性呢？多读读书吧。
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