Price is currently testing the 161.8% extension of 2.0366-2.0233/2.0345 at 2.0131, so a bounce from this level is possible. However, the structure looks bearish as the GBPUSD could be entering a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. If this is the case, then we’ll see much lower levels relatively soon (a break of 2.0043). This very aggressive bearish count is intact as long as price is below 2.0224.
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As for that Kiwi chart, here it is...
Near term, expect a drop below .7064 to complete a the correction from .7185 before the next advance. The confluence of the 38.2% of .6824-.7185 / 9/12 low at .7044/47 is potentially strong support.
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I have noticed that there are some posts about the stock markets, so why not show a chart of the Dow...
The decline from the top is obviously in 3 waves. However, that decline is sharp and with where the Dow is in the larger wave structure it seems unlikely to me that 12518 is the bottom (unless this is a big triangle) as a larger flat correction is probably unfolding. Treating the decline to 12518 as wave A, we need to look for the top of wave B. Wave B itself is a complex W-X-Y correction. Wave X is an expanded flat. Wave Y of B is underway now and there are 3 points that I am watching for a reversal. The 61.8% extension of wave W at 13560, the 78.6% retrace of wave A at 13700 and the 100% extension of wave W at 13892.
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This is the weekly, crude is tracing out wave v of 3 in the 1,2,3,4,5 from the 99 low. The next big move should be in wave 4 back to 49.90. I'll post the 240 minute chart next to show wave v of 3 in detail to see when it might come to an end.
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Scratch the 240 minute...I'm having problems with data. Here is the daily. Again, the rally from 49.90 is wave v of 3 (1,2,3,4,5 from 1999). Within the rally from 49.90, the current rally is wave v of 3 also. So, we need a 4th wave that is likely to end near 68.63 or so before a rally in wave 5 to a newhigh in order to complete the rally from 49.90. What we are looking at then is a big topping process in the next couple months with a fairly wide range but ultimately a return to the 50 level.
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For weeks I kept on focusing on that wave 4 that you are showing on the weekly.
It looked to me like an impulse 5 waves down, but i could not place it in sequence. Especially since it seems that the begining of it just got breached, so that couldn't be a larger wave 1.
Thank you so much.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8131&stc=1&d=1189776583
The rally from 1.9649 to 2.0365 looks impulsive with a 5th wave diagonal, which I label wave 1. I see the down move underway currently as a correction of this wave 1 which ideally should retrace into the 61.8% - 78.6% area between 1.9802 and 1.9922.
A break below 1.9649 would invalidate my count.
On a larger scale, I label the move from the 1.7 level to 2.0651 as wave 1 and the move from 2.0651 to 1.9649 as wave 2 (which retraced about 30%). So on a larger scale, if my scenario is right (I may be crazy for being the only one with this count among you guys), we are in wave (1) of iii of 3.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8132&d=1189777940
it can be correct?
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So... quite a lot of possibilites... another one is the one italm here must take as his number one count - let me guess... my a-b-c today is actually a 1-2-i-ii decline and we are about to enter a iii of 3 massive decline... And I'm not ruling that out. The only reason I feel we might see a bit more of the upside are the daily charts and studies - I would like them to completely offset the big sell-off and then plunge lower without obstacles. So that we can all enjoy a year 1992 or year 1998 repeated and completely short the GBPJPY. Kidding. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/images/smilies/smile.gifAttached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8134&stc=1&d=1189790491
So to end... I'll finnish with the same thoguht I said in the previous post:
I would like the daily studies to completely offset the big sell-off and then plunge lower without obstacles. So that we can all enjoy a year 1992 or year 1998 repeated and completely short the GBPJPY. But this time I am not kidding. I'm dead serious...
Happy trading!
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And as for canadian - it's great for my longer term outlook on USDCAD! In the chart below - I am looking for the canadian to bottom out and believe it would do so quite soon. I'd say I now favour a push lower for the buck next week after some consolidation (in wave 4 now, then EURUSD above 1.40 in 5th wave), which will be lower for USDCAD, but then - that migh as well be it for quite a while. Look at the chart below. There are good fibonacci relationships as well for this structure. So, I think canadian dollar is about to get heavy soon. If the buck continues to be heavy like for example zeev sees it, it will be wise to play the CAD weakness in say EURCAD, where on the weekly charts we are bottoming in a wave 2 of a third wave or a C wave. I think it might be a really great opportunity. But you see for yourself if u find this interesting.
Good luck.
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I might be crazy... But this is certainly possible below 160,46.
And NZDUSD is reluctant to follow up higher showing a possible head and shoulders top after a five wave rally... on the 30 min charts.
Interesting.
I drank too much black tea and my eyes opened for a lot of ideas....
PIC
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Problem with my charts is solved so here is the eur/usd weekly. Same count applies to the gbp/usd.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8144&d=1189914049
We should complete wave c of 2 before the fed meeting on Tuesday the 18th (I'm expecting it to complete probably on Monday). Looking at 1.1980-1.20 area as the top for c of 2. 1.20 area is a logical zone as support has been broken over the course of 2 months since beginning of July, and should now be resistance. It is also a 50% retracement of the smaller wave 1, and the zone where the trendline of the irregular wave 2 falls into. Also, in that 1.20 area, the smaller wave 2 will enter the price territory of larger wave 1 and will confirm a 1-2, 1-2 count, and a third of a third will follow.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8145&d=1189915062
eur
no, italm, the counts are not the same for u and me. for me, wave three would only be the shortest if euro went above 1.445 in this push. So I can easily allow the euro to go higher and overshoot the upper trendline, which might be a signal of the ending if this count or outlook is any good. It's a simplistic approach for the longer term outlook, but when the picture is not clear, the simpler the better for me.
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Check the move lower, zeev.
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Picolo,
I'm currently working with the same count as you. Here is my breakdown of where we are within waveC of 5. I think we are at or near wave iv of 3 of C of 5. My best guess is par is gonna be the psychological barrier here, though we never know, do we?
Spin
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Hey guys,
I've been scratching my head about the loonie. What do you think of this count?
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8164&d=1190072126
Thanks italm31. Yes I meant sort of a failed wave C when it does not make it past the top of wave A in bear correction. You will see what I mean in my GBPJPY count below. Wave C looks like a 3 wave structure in this timeframe but moving down to H1 it is a clear diagonal. If this is a valid count I am looking to at least 222.74 for this big wave down, there are already signs of it being an extended wave 3.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=8171&stc=1&d=1190113469
The bearish count that I proposed last week that had a 3rd wave falling is tracking well. Look for strong resistance at the confluence of the fibo / former 4th wave over the next day. This should lead to the completion of wave 4.
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Hello, I seldom post here but seems like it's a great place for ellioticians to share their counts.
For Euro/Usd, I have 2 counts, the corrective and the bullish count labeled in my charts. I prefer the B wave count rather than Jamie's bullish count as wave 3 is very close to 100% of wave 1. Looks more like a common relationship in a zigzag to me. But the only way to prove the bullish count wrong is a break of 1.3719 before a new high like Jamie mentioned. A good thing about Elliot wave counting is that, most of the time we get the same direction, just where the wave ends is the question.
Edit : Sorry the graphs are too big, I will make the next ones smaller
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I think I might be on to something. This forum makes it very difficult to contact people privately and start a group. Is there an active chat room for Ellioticians?
http://img103.imageshack.us/img103/9955/dailyfxrq1.gif
Again I must apologise about the big graph, but this is kind of important.
Guys yesterday's drop on the dollar index failed to reach the 100% of wave 3 which means it is still a valid count. There is a potential that this coming dollar strength might turn into a reversal rather than just a retracement. Possible tops on many majors againts the dollar.
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