This is what I'm checking out with EURUSD so far...daily charts show the pair holding above trendline support. However, given the consolidation we're seeing (see 240 min chart), a simple break below 1.46 will cancel out that trendline. However, I think we may see EURUSD essentially hold to these levels until the ECB meeting on Thursday.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9719&stc=1&d=1196765532 http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9720&stc=1&d=1196765541
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:21 编辑 ]
As supposed, the pair has reached 1.4750 level, which showed a resistance. At the same moment, the pair set against the upper bound of a descending 4-hours trend. Upon breaking it, the pair will get ability of growth to 1.4841, possibly a key level from which forming of the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape may start. The potential of forming such shape is expressed not only with the general picture of the main pairs, but also with the divergence at the daily graph.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9998/eurusdh4cd9.gif
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/6214/eurusdd1ib1.gif
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:22 编辑 ]
The daily chart is getting pretty congestive. This looks like a very good candidate for a breakout. Whether that's to the upside or downside will likely revolve around what the ECB says and does (while the level of speculation of a possible 50 bp rate cut from the Fed will have its hand on the momentum handle).
Little risk in having a short stop order below 1.46 as I will be around for the ECB, so I can monitor any potential false breaks on the pick up in volatility.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9766&stc=1&d=1196865654
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 13:24 编辑 ]
This night EUR/USD sharply broke a neck line (1.4634), after reaching a red ascending daily trend (1.4525) the pair rapidly bumped out of it and went back to a neck line. During this movement a turned candle “hammer” shape was formed. The pair’s situation is uncertain. Logically, after breaking a neck line a good descending trend should start, but forming of a turned candle assumes equal possibilities of going up or down.
Upon neck line bottom-up breaking (1.4643) there are two variants of consequences:
1. the pair may bump off an ascending green daily trend.
2. in the case of breaking of this trend, as well as breaking a descending 4-hours trend, the pair will forward to 1.4840.
In the event that the pair bumps off a neck line (1.4640) it will go towards an ascending red daily trend (1.4550) and on its braking will go at 1.4370. Strategically, if this situation develops, I expect the pair at 1.4200.
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/1179/eurusdh4hz4.gif
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 14:00 编辑 ]
Any forecasts for tomorrow's FOMC meeting? I think we will keep to the quarter point cut and the 28 percent chance of a 50 bp cut will lead to some modest readjustment in the dollar's favor. How much? Therein lies the trade.
A 28 percent chance of a half point cut is far reduced from the 58 percent probability given to such an outcome last week; and it most likely means that traders have not built much risk premium into such a move. Certainly not enough to take out large dollar-resistance levels among the majors.
On the other hand, this upswing for EURUSD could be a good oppurtunity for those looking for a potential short. If we can make it up to 1.4775 during the release, I may look for a shorting oppurtunity for 75-100 points. Of course, it will depend on how volatility and momentum evolved around this resistance level.
At the same time if we get a modest dollar rally on a quarter point hike; and spot is carried to the rising trendline (1.4500/50) I will definitely watch closely. For me that rising trendline is keeping up the medium term trend. So if that holds, it would align the long, medium and short time frames to the same EURUSD bullish scenario.
Anyone setting up differently?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9856&stc=1&d=1197311008
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 14:07 编辑 ]
Whether EURUSD breaks to the downside or not, it certainly looks like the major risk is to that side and a break below support could lead to a very large move.
For a short, I'm going to wait for a close below the rising trendline (at 1.4580 or thereabouts at the moment); then I'll look for entry on a move below the neckline of the heads-and-shoulders formation and 50-day SMA at around 1.4500/30.
Any one else making long-term plans for a break, or is it range trades from here on out until the holiday passes?
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9943&stc=1&d=1197574683
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:38 编辑 ]
The daily graph shows that the pair is closed in the range between red and green ascending daily trends. I expect the red trend breaking and going down to the first target at 1.4371. My strategic target is 1.4200 (going down to the blue ascending trend), but again examining the pair behavior at 1.4371 is necessary.
At H4 graph the pair has a weak resistance at 1.4639 which is likely to collapse, but I’ll try to sell at it. I can’t see more exact resistances above, hence I won’t name the price. The pair trades in a descending trend, which is worth orienting to. Braking of this trend will put in doubt the pair’s willing to go down and in that case it has a good chance to grow to 1.4750. If the red trend (daily) will be repeatedly broken, the pair will head to the blue trend, and upon breaking it – to 1.4371. This course of events is the most probable due to pictures on oil, dollar index, gold and the rest main pairs.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6567/eurd1mt3.gif
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6307/eurh4uk4.gif
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:39 编辑 ]
I've been away from the markets since the middle of last week, and needless to say, there's been a lot to look at. The head and shoulders on the Euro charts made a beautiful break below the neckline, though it looks like 1.4353/78 is holding up well for now. I think we could see some consolidation above these levels for the next day or so, but a break lower could target 1.4164/1.42, especially as European data from here on out will likely reflect a slowing economy.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=9983&stc=1&d=1197881886
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:40 编辑 ]
I know I did.
First let me say hi and introduce myself. My name is Michael. I experimented with forex several years ago and lost a few bucks and gave up. I got a new demo account last week and started to try some more. I setup a chart layout and saved it with lines on the 15 minute setting, that I was using as my predictions for where I thought they were headed. For the next couple days I started using 5 minutes for some reason, and forgot about the lines that had been saved on the 15 minutes. Today I was checking some different times and this is what I found.
http://easymoneypage.com/images/fx/eurusd1217.jpg
http://easymoneypage.com/images/fx/gbpusd1217.jpg
http://easymoneypage.com/images/fx/usdjpy1217.jpg
I'm no pro, and I don't understand many of the indicators and how to predict things, but it was last week on a 15 minute time scale that I set those lines, and they look pretty good to me. They were set by marking highs or lows from previous points that day.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:41 编辑 ]
This price action is very frustrating. We have almost nothing on the docket for the rest of this week and the next; and if the market continues to take profit and remove its stop and entry orders, there is little promise for a breakout move over the holidays. One of the big components of big moves during these low liquidity periods (like the one we saw over Thanksgiving 2006) is that a sizable push meets few counterparties to absorb the order, we see a spike, this spike hits a large group of floating stop or limit orders, then price is pushed ever further, juniors on the FX desk join the move, and then we can see round after round of orders triggered and a jump in from hedgers and speculators.
All this considered, the presence of 1.45 going into the low liquidity conditions is a concern for me. However, I'm sticking with my short position; but I think I'll watch the market at least a few times a day during my vacation to keep an eye on liquidity and possible monitor the big levels of support and resistance.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10049&stc=1&d=1198077251
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:42 编辑 ]
Looking at a 240 min EURUSD chart and the descending triangle (bearish), I think if price drops below immediate support the pair will target 1.4240/50. However, it remains to be seen whether or not the scenario will play out.
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10059&stc=1&d=1198144932
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:43 编辑 ]
Perfect trade a week ago but as Jamie predicted it stopped at 1.4309!!
I will be looking for a long entry but not holding my breath for now.
Feel free to contact me for info on my charts or system.
Steve
Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10076&stc=1&d=1198177126
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:43 编辑 ]
The pair is consolidating in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 1.4525. A neck line of “head & shoulders” shape is at the same level. From 1.4525 I expect the pair to turn with a target of the 5th wave (1.4095). But before this level, at 1.4310, there is a very important trend “G” (upper bound of bull’s triangle), which is able to keep the pair from going down. If it manages to do so, strategically, I expect a serious correction to 1.4670 level (see weekly graph) followed by pair’s lowering to trend “H”, approximately to a level of the 39th shape (1.3900).
If the 4th wave won’t start, the pair will go down to 1.4210.
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/4470/eurusdh4hx0.gif
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9260/eurusdd1mm2.gif
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/6377/eurusdw1zf2.gif
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:44 编辑 ]
I read the PDF file.
good reading.
It says EURO to reach 1.8 eventually.
Now, should we buy now ? 1.4400 to 1.8000, almost 4000 pips !!!!!!
(that is why forex starters lose monies trading on all these useless analysis)
and you guy say "where can I find more info like that? " (soooo Sweeet)
I tell you where you can find those, in my toilet bowl.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10132&d=1198510347
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:45 编辑 ]
chucky2007, I'm not exactly sure what happens then, but if you are an FXCM client, you can e-mail sales@fxcm.com with any questions you may have (though by now I'm sure you already have your answer).
EURUSD has rallied for a test of 1.45 as traders filter back into the markets, with resistance looming around 1.4555 (38.2% fib and 50 SMA). Looks like its the end of the mild holiday price action we saw late last week/early this week.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10153&stc=1&d=1198739949
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:46 编辑 ]
Stryker.....The ichimoku I have been looking at over the holidays...and if you had set your stop just a few pips higher above the line(Kijun) you might have been safe,well for a little while anyway.
Looking back is always easier though.......I am not trading right now..might wait another week..Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10162&stc=1&d=1198795110
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:50 编辑 ]
Keep in mind we also have the FOMC minutes later in the afternoon (14:00 EST), which could prove to be a bit dicey for the dollar depending on the commentary. I'd wager that a continued pessimistic focus on instability in the financial markets will prove bullish for EURUSD. On the other hand, if the FOMC expressed worries about inflation pressures, the comments would offset that.Attached Imageshttp://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10235&stc=1&d=1199281646
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:50 编辑 ]
pre FOMC minutes, we would see Euro knocking on 1.4750,
then by Friday, pre-NFP, we should be knocking on 1.4860
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10238&d=1199286790
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:51 编辑 ]
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=10243&d=1199290152
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-18 15:52 编辑 ]
AR 1Next Slide
Welcome to the FFES (Foundation for Economic Stabilisation) Case Study Course applying principles of mathematical probability to the production of profits from prognostication.
The old Romans were wise enough to know that things change and fluctuate. They therefore recognised that the best way to know what would probably happen in the future was to study how changes took place in the past. To symbolise this, their two headed Janus was their chief deity with one head confidently looking to the future as the other head had studied the past.
While it is true that few things are certain to happen in the future at a definite time such as the time that a certain person will die in the future, this mathematical probability has made tremendous profits for the insurance concerns that use it, as well as similar profits for investing individuals who employed it.
What are some of the important profit making principles that you are now about to learn to use. One is the application to price fluctuations of Newton抯 law of physics to which the late Roger Babson attributed his fortune of over $50,000,000. The Action and Reaction Rule that states these are equal and opposite. Another is how drawing a single line will enable you to know where the price of any stock or any future is now headed and the probable time it will reach there. Then there are principles that enable you to switch positions so near to the turning points or pivots that start each new trend, that you may be constantly either long or short making money whether price is rising or falling. Also in each weekly letter on the right hand column you抣l see some abbreviations that are headed 搑easons for actions taken? As a course member now you抣l have the glossary of these abbreviations so you can now verify on your own chart that every change of position from long to short has a scientific reason. Have you ever seen elsewhere anyone making such information available. Many of our members have taken other courses and we hope you抣l find as they have that this one of yours in the best.
Besides the above principles that are unique to this Course you抣l also find what we have been informed are better ways of using other well known methods, and as an example we抳e added channel lines to the popular moving average method in a way that you抣l find helps eliminate some of the whip-saws the usual moving average followers frequently find troublesome. Then various members of the past have added improvements that bear their names, as you may do in this wide open field of probability applications to price fluctuations.
Your glossary of abbreviations is enclosed so that you may soon get the meaning of the abbreviations that summarise the rules. Other Course studies including some recent Course letters will follow soon.
So many investors have doubt as to the possibility of constantly predicting when and where prices will turn. Therefore the Marechal Chart is a good starting point for your studies as he was one of the first to use mathematics to show what the DJI would do during the coming 20 years from the time he copyrighted his chart.
Feel free to write whenever you have questions and I am confident you抣l be happy you抳e joined this wonderful group of investors who want to become 揋ood Stewards?as in the parables in Luke 19:11 on and Mathew 25:14 on if my memory is correct.
You investors are the life-blood of the economy. Without you there抯 be no banks, chains or factories, etc. where a person could choose jobs, nor would the government be able to collect the taxes they now get. Your importance has been neglected, too long.
Sincerely,
Alan H. Andrews, Trustee FFES.
AR 2Previous Slide Next Slide
You will find enclosed the first study of the Course concerning the ML (median line) Method. This enables you to know where the trend of anything that fluctuates at random is headed. What everyone wants to know is where the latest trend is headed, and where the next pivot (P) will be from which the reverse trend will start.
The probability of the next P being at the latest ML seems to be about 80%, and even without any additional rules that enable you to be constantly either long or short , the profit potential of this simple rule is tremendous for you.
Although Marechal never left us exactly how he was able to predict twenty years in advance what his copyrighted chart showed the Dow Jones Industrial Averages would do, you can draw in the MLs from each P bisecting the distance between the 2 latest alternate Ps, and see that nearly every time the new P occurred when prices met that latest ML. You抣l also see that on the right hand side of his chart prices were too strong to drop to the ML that started from the high in 1945, which always signals that a big rise is ahead unless the next trend fails to reach the new ML. This cancels out the prior signal and signals a big move contrary to the big move previously signaled. And as there was no contrary signal after prices failed to drop to reach the ML from the high in 1945, you could be confident of realising a big gain from your long position taken as soon as prices crossed the parallel to the ML from the high of 1945. You draw this parallel from the third top that the ML was drawn half way below on the distance to Previous P.
You can now tell from the enclosed Glossary what the abbreviations mean, in the right hand column of each weekly letter. This enables you to understand the scientific reason for each new position taken based on simple geometry. When you change a position your new methods enable you to be one of the few persons who knows how to be constantly either long or short, in this way you make profits after each rise and fall that follows the rise. You may be whip-sawed a few times but if you get you order in before the market opens the next day, should prices move against the position you have just taken, your losses will be small and often show a small profit.
You will see all this after you抳e done some 損aper trading?which you should start on right away showing on your chart where each position was taken. You should concentrate on the ML method applying that even if you have had experience with other methods. For we learn best by concentrating on one thing at a time. When you have a question mark where the question arose and send me a copy of your chart that should also list our profits from the two contracts you take each time you change position. When you write out your question leave a space where my answer can be written and mailed back to you.
After you see that your paper trading has made well over the 100% profit rate, it will indicate you are ready to learn the Action and Reaction Method to which my friend the late Roger Babson attributed his fortune of over $50,000,000. Then after that let us know and you will be sent the rest of the Course Studies.
Sincerely.
AR 3Previous Slide Next Slide
http://www.medianline.com/images/604_AR3.gif
AR 4Previous Slide Next Slide
Case study course rules
Median lines and MLH: the MLs enable the user to be one of the few who can tell where the prices are headed, and the place they will reach about 80% of the time, and when approximately that place will be reached. Slopes of alternate MLs of comparable length indicate the trend.
When both recent MLs slope in the same direction the trend is strong and price change rapid. A reverse ML is formed when 1ML2-3 is exactly reached at P4, and is a reliable CL for applying the AR method.
There is a high probability that:
1. Prices will reach the latest ML
2. Prices will either reverse on meeting the ML or gap through it
3. When prices pass through the ML, they will pull back to it
4. When prices reverse before reaching the ML, leaving a 搒pace? they will move more in the opposite direction than when prices were rising toward the ML.
5. Prices reverse at any ML or extension of a prior ML.
Frequently, after crossing a lower MLH, prices continue to rise along the MLH before the further drop that was signaled by passing through. So here you can use a sliding parallel through the bottom of the range of the most recent day as a sell signal if prices drop through that SH.
MLH are places beyond which each day you place a buy or sell order before the market opens the next day if prices pass through that MLH. MLs between P2 and P3 can start from nearby or more remote P1s, and prices tend to reverse at each of these MLs. The distance of each MLH from its ML is the distance of the next warning line (WL) from that MLH. When a second 搒pace?reversal negates a previous one, there has been a 搒hake out?that signals a larger move in the opposite direction.
Mini median lines (MMLH): Use the MMLH as the buy/signal when you expect a reversal because of a P5, or because prices are at an RL, WL, major ML extension, etc. Also use MMLH as a stop loss right after entry.
If prices cross an MMLH and then move along it, enter when prices reverse by use of an SH.
In some markets drawing MMLH from end of ranges is best to reduce whip-saws, but use closes to draw these MMLHs between usually.
Converging lines that meet prices have high probability of trend reversal. MMLH lines can be drawn through the daily range after a gap.
Two to four days is usually a maximum between 2 and 3 for an MML. P1 can be 1 day or more back from 2 and 3.
ACTION/REACTION are equal and opposite:
CL can be 0-3.0-4, Reverse ML, MPL, 2G, MA, MA Channel Line, 2P, Peak to Low, Low to Peak etc.
Normally use a down sloping R line to call a sell point, with A line measured through a bottom. Exception: still using Dt R line to call the sell point, when CL is a 0-3, the top seems to work for the A distance, as well as the bottom.
When prices pass through R lines, it often drop back as with MLs that are passed by prices, but signals probability of further move in direction before the pull-back.
Since each gap is 2 Ps they can be used for A points. When MA is used for CL, use closes for measurement above and below MA. Hagopian's Rule applies to R lines. The longer the CL the more reliable it seems.
AR 5Previous Slide Next Slide
Case Study Course on Price Fluctuations
Sir Isaac Newton and George Marechal
Of the two kinds of change in the Universe, flowing change and random change, we are indebted to Newton's invention of the Calculus that enables us to find out in advance the conditions that flowing change will produce in the future. His discovery of the natural law that Action and Reaction are equal and opposite in the field of physics also has been applied in the Course to the random changes of price movements in free markets. This application of the Action-Reaction law enables you to learn in advance where the probable reversals of price trends will come in the future. We owe this application to the late Roger Babson, who credited this law as the basis for his fortune of over $50,000,000.
When we speak of any scientific law, we mean a statement that a relationship has been observed among certain given conditions. We mean 搃f these conditions now, then those conditions will follow, and can be expressed mathematically? We have 搊rder?through which we can know the outcome from these conditions. We can therefore take advantage of this knowledge, and thereby progress and profit.
So Newton was one of the great discoverers of this 搊rderliness?that underlies all of the Creator抯 work, even if we are often slow in discovering it. Newton抯 Laws therefore as stated above, have benefited the users in both flowing and random changes.
The definition of randomness implies that future conditions are unascertainable, because there seems to be a lack of order underlying such change. Such has been the almost universal belief, still prevalent with most people as far as price prediction is concerned.
Marechal, also by mathematical methods of his own was the first to demonstrate that there is also order underlying the so-called random changes in price fluctuations. No professor in any University, no government economist, has ever been able to produce a similar chart showing as Marechal抯 famous chart, copyrighted in advance, what the Dow Jones Industrial Stock averages would do 18 years ahead. As one of many other examples of this mathematical orderliness regulating the flow of stock prices, the writer received from this remarkable man now approaching 90, several months before President Nixon抯 election, an accurate prognostication of what the DJ Industrial Averages would be the day after Nixon抯 election.
Many others such as classmate Dewey抯 Foundation for the Study of Cycles have shown the 搊rder?underlying stock and future prices. For example the recent rise in price of Copper futures was predicted by the cyclical studies of that Foundation several years before the advance took place.
So now and during each of the past ten years your Foundation for Economic Stabilisation has presented this Case Study Course on the predictability of prices, summing up the results of thirty years of research and inquiry among successful investors. By the use of these Course Rules never before published except by your Foundation, you as a Course member will have an advantage over others without knowledge of these Rules.
Alan H. Andrews, Director
AR 6Previous Slide Next Slide
The Chart No Government Economist, No College Professor Has Enough Knowledge
To Even Approach, Or Courage To Try To Duplicate: George Marechal抯 chart.
If one is posing as an expert looking for a government job or research grant, and another person with superior knowledge might be a possible competitor, the policy of ignoring superior accomplishment is frequently adopted. 揝weep it under the rug?policy.
Fortunately there are real experts like Garfield Drew, and classmate Edward R. Dewey of 揊oundation For Study of Cycles?fame who are not afraid to call attention to the person who can outperform the rest of us. Mr. Drew whose book 揗odern? rather 揘ew Methods for Profit in the Stock Market? has this chart. He introduced Marechal to me at a dinner and seminar I was giving at the Beach Club at Craigyville Beach. And that was the beginning of a friendship of several decades wherefrom Mr. Marechal has provided me with advice of coming price movements whose accuracy has never been equaled by any of the many forecasters whose services I抳e engaged. And Mr. Marechal's forecasts were freely given, to me and a few of his friends.
http://www.medianline.com/images/564_AR6.gif
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-19 07:25 编辑 ]