Unless the Fed Cut shocks markets to the downside, Goldman Sachs (GS) will post an incredible rally today. Yesterday, the stock traded as low as $140, and today, we’ve reached intraday highs of $171. Let’s look:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031808-1920-goldmansach12.png
Earnings today beat estimates. Analysts expected a profit of $2.58 per share, but were surprised with reports.23 per share profit. When a company beats earnings by that much, gaps of this magnitude are relatively common.
I did want to point out two previous positive momentum divergences on the daily chart, which served to shock the shorts and create a temporary rally (divergences are often resolved by a simple counter-swing move, rather than a trend reversal).
Price breached the key $20 period moving average. Remember how I said that this week would be news driven, rather than technical analysis driven. The Federal Reserve still has to release its decision (as of 1:15 EST as I write this post) and don’t forget that the end of this week signals the volatile and unpredictable “Triple Witching.”
Nevertheless, not to be outdone, Lehman Brothers (LEH) also showed an impressive and stellar reversal, doubling off yesterday’s $20 intraday low:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031808-1920-goldmansach22.png
The Financial Sector as a whole has been battered the last few months, and so percentage increases will likely occur more here than in other sectors. Those funds who are short are forced to cover rapidly, as bottom fishers are throwing their lines out in droves, snagging up ‘cheap’ shares of companies who they feel will not return to those levels any time soon. Time will tell, of course.
Here’s a peek at the rest of the AMEX Sector SPDRs intraday prior to the Fed Cut Announcement:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031808-1920-goldmansach31.png
(UPDATE: The Fed cut rates .75 bps)
Be sure to keep an eye on the Financial Sector, as it tends to lead the market. I’ll wait to analyze these developments further until after the closeâ
Idealized Trades for Friday March 14
March 15th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
While Friday’s action was quite volatile, there were actually some very profitable and simple trades you could have taken within the price structure on the day.
Let’s look at the DIA (Dow Jones ETF):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031508-1727-idealizedtr1.png
The day did not begin with a significant gap, yet within the first 30 minutes, price had fallen from $122 to beneath $119, which was a 300 point Dow drop. It was difficult to get any entries into this large volatility momentum move down, which occurred due to fears that the recent economic (financial) injection (stimulus plan) might not work after all to save the banks from financial crisis. Shortly afterwards, the Fed announced a major bailout of Bear Stearns (BSC), which was the major new event of the day.
Price recovered, and found significant resistance at the falling 20 period MA, which set up a short-sell trade if you were aggressive (trade highlighted in purple). Price inflected off the daily S1 pivot (not shown) and then pulled back to the falling 20 period MA again, setting up an identical trade which terminated also at the daily S1.
Savvy traders may have noticed a triangle consolidation forming, which prompted them to stay out of the market until a break of consolidation occurred. Even though the day had so much negativity and downside momentum, it’s still best to wait until price breaks because you cannot predict the actual price ejection direction from consolidation triangles (though triangles tend to be continuation patterns).
The break on higher (relative) volume signaled a trade to the downside, which targeted the distance of the height of the triangle, which witnessed a disheartening ‘throwback’ (notice the doji candle just before 1:00) which took out conservative traders with tight stops in this short-sell trade.
The initial break paused and formed a 45 degree angle pull-back into key resistance again by the 20 period moving average, which set up a high-probability short-sell trade again which was a classic bear flag (which achieved its target perfectly, which happened to be the intraday low).
A lengthy momentum divergence had been setting up all day as price continued to make lower lows, signaling that a turnaround was increasingly likely. Indeed, this occurred, as the day closed with moderate strength, rather than closing on its lows.
An “impulse buy” trade set-up with momentum making a new high and the pullback into moving average support allowed for a buy-side (long) trade with a small target (which gave you 50 Dow points into the close if you are a pure day-trader).
While there were many more trades to be located, I always recommend you keep a file or journal of what you perceive to be the ‘ideal’ trades of the day, and then look at your results to see how much of those ideal trades you captured, or what percentage of the available profits (or losses) you achieved from these trades.
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A Peek at Gold, Oil, and the Dollar
March 14th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Without getting too deep in explanation, let’s look at the technical picture of Gold, Oil, and the US Dollar Index on the daily charts:
First, the plunging US Dollar Index:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031408-1543-apeekatgold1.png
On to Light Crude Oil (one barrel):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031408-1543-apeekatgold2.png
Finally, Gold Contract Prices (one ounce):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031408-1543-apeekatgold3.png
Finally, let’s compare the relative performance of these markets (from 180 days ago until today):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031408-1543-apeekatgold4.png
There is a classic inverse relationship between the US Dollar Index and (most) commodities.
Recall that gold is a protection against inflation, and oil is quoted in US Dollars, so that when the dollar weakens, oil prices are inflated.
Notice also the almost mirror image of the US Dollar and the Crude Oil chart, down to the divergences and consolidation rectangle pattern. It’s quite amazing.
As always, I recommend Market Club.comÂfor more information on these markets, including potential trading signals with analysis. Of course, for education only (and lessons), you can join INO.com TV for access to a plethora of educational video seminars to help you during this time of testing in the market.
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ALERT: Bear Stearns Plunges 50% Today
March 14th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Bear Stearns (BSC), one of the major US Financial companies, lost half its value intraday today on concerns that the Fed’s recent liquidity injection “might not work” for the company.
Instantly, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously today to provide cash to help this crisis, and stands ready to inject more as needed.
As reported by Yahoo News, the Federal Reserve issued a two-sentence statement, part of which said, “The Federal Reserve is monitoring market developments closely and will continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system.”
According to Yahoo, “The plan will provide secured funding to Bear Stearns for an initial period of 28 days, seeking to provide short-term relief for Bear Stearns.”
Furthermore, “The action by the Fed board in Washington represented an endorsement of a rescue effort for Bear Stearns that had already been arranged by JPMorgan and the Federal Reserve’s New York regional bank, seen as a last-ditch effort to save the investment bank, which on Friday acknowledged its serious financial problems after a week of denials.”
With that news, let’s look at what happened to the stock prior to the news (or let’s see what caused this announcement to happen so quickly):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031408-1613-alertbearst1.png
On to the massive decline in the weekly chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031408-1613-alertbearst2.png
Before you start thinking this is a normal decline, realize how large Bear Stearns is to the US Financial markets, and what this might mean for the broader sector.
This is an extremely important development, which shows that investors must always be on guard for catastrophic events (news/fundamentals) in their chosen investment, and also highlights that even long-term investors should use some sort of position liquidation plan (such as an 8% or 10% arbitrary stop-loss, or some other risk control management plan).
At any moment, the unthinkable can happen in the market.
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Sears â
Sears Holding (SHLD) has taken a severe punishment from investors since 2007, falling from an all-time high above $190 to a recent three-year low beneath $90.
While the chart itself is educational from a trend and retracement perspective, I wanted to highlight a few points during the decline.
First, there were two significant events that occurred on the daily chart that are worth viewing:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031308-1650-searsbruise1.png
As price crested lower, a major report in late November caused a $20 point overnight gap which resulted in a hammer-style candlestick on massive volume (thought to be selling volume, but it was actually short-term accumulation).
Retail traders and investors who sold here (after a depressing investment) were shocked to see the stock recover its full value prior to the overnight gap-down drop which forced many to sell. Savvy traders knew that the odds seem to favor that the gap would have closed, rather than not, and could have played price up (to close the gap) and down (due to the pullback to resistance via the 20 period moving average, combined with bearish candlesticks and overbought oscillator readings). There almost was a powerful evening star candle, and certainly a bearish engulfing pattern at key resistance.
Second, not to be outdone, yet another $10 gap occurs in mid-January, which also resulted in a fill. However, this time it was the short-sellers who got their accounts cleaned instead of the buyers. The fact that Sears was in a strong downtrend, and had deteriorating fundamentals due to weaker retail sales was clear to virtually everyone. Newer (and even experienced) traders and funds were certainly short this stock (or sector). I’m sure many of them were counting their profits following this overnight gap and subsequent price weakness, but they woke up the morning of January 22nd to find a massive short-squeeze and buying frenzy on their hands.
Those who held short into the next day experienced a two-day price move greater than $25. Traders who opted to be aggressive and buy to fill this gap similarly found their accounts higher than before.
The fact is that the market often acts to confuse the majority most of the time. In late November, the price gapped down beyond fair valuation and immediately corrected over the next week, shocking those who ‘got short’ due to the poor news.
Subsequently, price shocked the shorts with a massive squeeze, triggering all but the aggressive stops and pulling away those positions. When the dust settled, the market then turned around back to the downside and shocked the new buyers and ‘bottom fishers’ who thought they had found retail gold with this stock. While price has not yet made a new low, it does continue its downtrend, leaving buyers at the late January and early February levels quite underwater.
Let’s peek quickly at the weekly chart to gain the broader perspective on this move (red arrows indicate key resistance levels, and opportune short-selling trade entries):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031308-1650-searsbruise2.png
Notice the massive momentum divergence which set up in the middle of the chart. The subsequent breakdown in price beneath the key moving averages and out of the channel trendline formation signaled that the impetus had shifted from the bulls to the bears. The large price decline in early June signaled the official end to the uptrend and birth of the new downtrend (and position trade short entry).
I wanted to post the amazing gap fade that took place earlier today:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031308-1911-marketfades1.png
The morning started with a large volatility (150 Dow point) gap as the economic news was very bearish this morning (oil and gold at new record highs, signaling inflation, and a larger than expected drop in retail sales).
The market, however, shook off this news and frustrated traders who exited, and punished those who got short this morning.
Although the first impulse is to fade an overnight gap, two factors prevented this classic play this morning:
[*]The gap was greater than a 100 point Dow gap, meaning odds favored continuation rather than a filling of the gap[*]The market did continue in the direction of the gap almost 100 points down, which would have taken out virtually any stop you placed if you tried to fade this gapA momentum divergence formed as price made a new swing low on the day (in fact, it was a significant momentum divergence â
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031208-0744-zeroinontue12.png
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031308-1620-ashootingst11.png
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-23 06:20 编辑 ]
A 400 Point Dow Day?
March 11th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Before you get ultra bullish, realize that the sharpest volatility price moves to the upside often occur during a bearish downtrend. That’s likely what happened today.
The day began with a strong upside gap in all US Indexes, and proceeded to a near 50% gap fade, followed by a strong surge of buying power (combined with short-covering) into the close.
When the dust settled, the Dow Jones Index climbed more than 400 points today, representing a 3.5% daily increase over yesterday’s close. The NASDAQ and the QQQQ ETF closed 4% higher today.
Did anything change on the daily chart (DIA is shown)?
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031208-0333-a400pointdo11.png
The quick answer is surprisingly “no.” Although price completed a large volatility price move to the upside, it is still beneath the falling key 20 and 50 period moving averages, which are both a good distance beneath the 200 period moving average, representing the most bearish orientation possible.
If indeed price continues to trend higher as it may, price will have likely broken these key averages and carved out a higher low than the January lows. This does little to change the current bearish structure at the moment before more buying (with short-covering) enters the market.
Volume was relatively light today, given the large magnitude of the intraday price swing, and unless we get higher prices on higher volume, then there is a developing divergence.
Did much change on the weekly chart? Let’s peek at the S&P 500 chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031208-0333-a400pointdo21.png
There appears to be a larger consolidation pattern taking place within the larger frame of the market, which has yet to break either up or down. Price has tested and successfully defended both the rising 200 period moving average and (near) the January intraday low.
Let’s rise a little higher and peek at an interesting insight on the S&P 500 monthly chart:
Â
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031208-0333-a400pointdo31.png
The S&P 500 Index recently inflected twice (intramonth lows) off the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement line drawn from the bear market low to the recent bull market high.
Price also has failed to close beneath the key 50 period moving average (which could act as support) on the monthly chart. Notice that the last 4 months in the market have closed lower.
Odds may shift to favor a counterswing up, but recall that the upward swing is currently just that â
buying in anticipation of a bottom â
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/dia15m.png
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http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/applemar11.png
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031108-0323-howdidoilge1.png
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-23 06:23 编辑 ]
Brief Weekly Index Overview
March 10th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Let’s peek at some of the major Indexes to see what may be the next play in the upcoming weeks:
First, the Dow Jones:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/031008-1717-briefweekly1.png
Notice that the Broadening Top formation (bearish) that I mentioned months ago is completing to the downside.
Momentum keeps making lower lows, signaling the increased probability of lower index prices are yet to come.
A test of the 200 period moving average at 11,500 (red arrow) seems to be a near certainty (which is only 250 points away). The index may get a potential upswing (counter-swing) bounce at this level. This would cause a subsequent test of the January lows (when the market had the stellar recovery of January 22nd).
The most recent upswing (counter-swing) was not confirmed by volume (volume declined as price moved higher â
Daily and Weekly Chart View of Apple AAPL
March 22nd, 2009 by Corey Rosenbloom
Let’s take a quick look at Apple (AAPL)’s weekly chart (including an Elliott Wave count) and a closer look at the Daily Chart’s consolidation rectangle pattern.
Apple (AAPL) Weekly:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3543/3376985704_d8cdec8dcd_o.jpg
I would consider this Elliott Wave count a high-probability count, but it is not the only count available.It’s also possible that this rectangle is actually part of a fractal Wave 4 of (C), which means the move out of consolidation will be a down-move.However, for the time being - unless we get a down-move that breaks support at $80 per share - I would consider this a slightly higher probability Wave count.
This count assumes that we made a Wave 5 Peak just as 2008 began and then formed a quick Wave A down into the $120 level before swinging back up in a rapid and strong Wave B (3-wave), before forming a reversal and then heading lower into a 5-wave subdivided C Wave.
A positive momentum divergence has formed and price is respecting a rectangle trend channel.
Apple (AAPL) Daily:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3605/3376985780_0522126ba2_o.jpg
On the Daily Chart, we see how price has created this rectangle consolidation (parallel trendlines) about the $105 and $80/$85 level.The obvious play would be to wait for a break-out from this consolidation to play for a range expansion move, whether it comes on a break to the upside or the downside.
It would appear currently that price wants to head a little lower as a result of price being at the upper trend-channel resistance line and forming two doji (reversal/indecision) candles in a row last week.The 3/10 Momentum oscillator is also starting to hook (turn) over at these levels.Notice the Oscillator has stayed within a respected trend channel as well.
We really can’t use moving averages for analysis in a trading range, though the help show us the mid-point (or ‘value area’) of the range.Price in a range doesn’t generally respect them for support or resistance (or to set up trades).
I’m also showing that Apple Inc has shown Relative Strength to the S&P 500 Index since 2009 began.Though prices stayed in a range, they did not decline, unlike the S&P 500 (which is off 15% year-to-date).Apple is actually up (currently) almost 20% year to date.
Keep watching Apple for a breakout above $105 or a return back to the midpoint or lower channel of the current rectangle trading range.Apple can’t stay in this range forever!
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter:http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Register (free) for the Afraid to Trade.com Blog to stay updated
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A Quick Look at Crude Oil and the US Dollar
March 21st, 2009 by Corey Rosenbloom
I posted yesterday about “Crude Oil and the S&P 500 Index” but let’s take a look now at Crude Oil and the US Dollar both on the weekly timeframe.
Crude Oil (WTIC):
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3608/3372700173_304905378c.jpg
Crude Oil seems to be completing a “Rounded Reversal” pattern that I’ve been highlighting for some time now, and we’re finally getting a rally of the significant positive momentum divergence that has been forming (particularly on the daily charts).
As it stands now, we’re at key potential resistance via the 20 week EMA, but if price clears this level, there is ‘open air’ or open room to make a play for $70 per barrel.Again, this is just taking a chart view on this possibility, not including fundamental or other considerations.If the dollar continues to weaken, crude oil prices (and that of many commodities) will continue to rise.A little inflation would be a good thing in an environment of deflation virtually across the board.
US Dollar Index:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3426/3372700203_cb7af2292f_o.jpg
The Dollar Index appears quite bearish in its weekly chart, particularly after having formed a doji (and sort of evening star pattern) at its recent price highs at the $89 level.Look closely to see that a distinct negative momentum divergence formed on these highs as well.
The “angle of ascent” (I drew trendlines around it) ‘feels’ odd - almost corrective in nature, and that a down-move seems the natural pathway to work off that rise.It almost feels like an “AB = CD” Measured Move pattern is forming, whose targets would be roughly the $78 index area.
There is potential support about the $81.50 level via the rising 50 week EMA, but if that support level gets taken out, then we would have similar ‘open space’ on the weekly chart to the downside as we do upside in Crude Oil.
We’re sitting now on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2008 lows to the 2009 highs, and the 50% comes in at roughly $80.50, while the 61.8% retracement is at the $78.30 level.The $79 level also reflects prior resistance from the September price swing, which should be expected to act as (at least) temporary support.
Keep watching these charts closely for additional clues.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter:http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Register (free) for the Afraid to Trade.com Blog to stay updated
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Two Markets - Two Directions - SP500 and Crude Oil
March 20th, 2009 by Corey Rosenbloom
Adam Hewison of Market Club released a video last night (that was precient on today’s move!) where he discusses the ‘rhythm’ of the S&P 500, Fibonacci resistance (as I’ve been describing), and the next likely move in both the S&P 500 and Crude Oil.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3430/3371635744_6eacbfe9c3_o.jpg
(Clicking the image opens the free video page)
Entitled “Two Markets - Two Directions,” Hewison traces the likely pathway for the S&P 500 and then compares that to a potentially different move in Crude Oil.
Strangely enough, Adam draws the same conclusion I’m finding in both markets, only without using Elliott Waves, Moving Averages, Oscillators, Trendlines, and the like.Sometimes it helps to ‘keep it simple’ as he always says.There’s clearly a reason why he’s a 30 year veteran of the markets!
Take a moment to watch the video (was was released earlier to members and released here by permission) and consider becoming a member.I have a heads up and have previewed the new charts for Market Club members and they’re quite impressive.I’ll keep you updated when they roll out those long-awaited upgrades!
Corey Rosenbloom
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A Look Back on Prior Quadruple Witching Days
March 20th, 2009 by Corey Rosenbloom
Friday brings us the infamous “Quadruple Witching” event which might be a big deal in the market, and it might not.Let’s define the concept and then look back in the past at some recent Quadruple Witching Days.
Options traders know that the third Friday of every month is “Options Expiration Days” which can lead to frenzied activity, volume, and volatility as large funds (and traders) ’square up’ any remaining open options positions before they expire and settle on Saturday.Perhaps they would prefer not to take posession of a large amount of stock, and so they may unwind hedges and/or sell/buy positions in the options (and stock) market.
Quadruple Witching occurs not only when equity options (like Google, Exxon-Mobile) and index options (like DIA, SPY), but also when futures contracts “roll over” and options on equity index futures (like @YM, @ES, @NQ) expire along with single stock futures options.
The following four components comprise a “Quadruple Witching” Day:
Equity Options
Equity Index Options
Index Futures Options
Single-Stock Futures Options
Often, the result is a rather erratic, volatile trading day that can confuse many intraday traders who aren’t aware of this occurrence.Quadruple Witching occurs on Expiration Friday in March, June, September, and December.
Let’s look back at regular Expiration Fridays and also Quadruple Witching Days in the S&P 500:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3453/3370539734_467aaf70a2_o.jpg
(You’ll need to click the chart for a larger image)
The last Quadruple Witching occurred on December 19th which resulted in a small-range day with volume running only slightly above the average at the time.It was a ‘dud’ in terms of normal Quadruple Witchings.
Prior to that, we had a decent range day on September 19th, with volume surging during the run-up to that Friday as price began its downslide into the October lows.That Friday took many traders by surprise as it was a sudden up-move in a down-swing that only served to delay the inevitable decline.
The first example shown on the chart comes from June 2008, where price formed a Trend Day Down on higher than average volume in the context of a down-swing.
So, not all Quadruple Witching days result in big moves, but the intraday squiggles (price swings) can occur seemingly randomly and not follow the typical expectations of technical analysis.Funds are balancing positions and they typically are looking at their books and not their charts to do so, which can cause seemingly perfect intraday trade set-ups to fail.
So, do trade with caution today but perhaps not with extreme caution.Some retail traders take these days off and start their weekend early. In the end, it’s up to you.
Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter:http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Register (free) for the Afraid to Trade.com Blog to stay updated
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Expand All Months »March 2009(49)
[*]22: Daily and Weekly Chart View of Apple AAPL (0)[*]21: A Quick Look at Crude Oil and the US Dollar (16)[*]20: Two Markets - Two Directions - SP500 and Crude Oil (11)[*]20: A Look Back on Prior Quadruple Witching Days (16)[*]19: Fibonacci Confluence on NASDAQ and Dow Jones (2)[*]19: Triple Fibonacci Confluence at 800 on SP500 (0)[*]18: The Fallout from Wednesday’s Fed Meeting (3)[*]18: Bear Flags Galore in Silver SLV (11)[*]18: What is the Cradle Trade? (8)[*]17: Intraday Tactics for St Patrick’s Day 09 (12)[*]17: The 10 Year Treasury Note Triangle (7)[*]17: Intraday Trades for March 16 (0)[*]16: A Look inside Fibonacci Confluence on Recent SP500 Move (14)[*]16: Join Corey at the LA Trader’s Expo in June (6)[*]15: Fibonacci Confluence and Projection on NIFTY Index (8)[*]15: Which Sectors Outperformed Last Week? (2)[*]14: Update on the Two Competing SP500 Elliott Wave Interpretations (19)[*]14: Essentials of Trading FOREX Video (1)[*]13: 3x Bullish Fund Volume Surges (11)[*]13: NewsFlashr Editor Picks for March 13 (1)[*]13: Positive Sign from New High New Low Indicator (4)[*]12: Thursday’s Most Perfect Trend Day Ever (12)[*]12: SP500 Daily Swing Goes Green (6)[*]12: New FOREX Profit Principles Download (4)[*]12: Ten Year Note Yield - At Weekly Resistance or Daily Support? (0)[*]11: SP500 Midweek Color Bars (7)[*]11: Sector Returns Year to Date (0)[*]11: Video Analysis in Crude Oil - Surviving $80? (1)[*]10: Stepping Inside Tuesday’s Powerful Trend Day (15)[*]10: Stocks Overdue for a Rally (10)[*]09: Surfing the Trend Channel on Monday (18)[*]09: A Daily Look at Crude Oil Developing Reversal (15)[*]08: ADX DMI Strategy Performance Test Results (2)[*]08: March 8 View of India’s Nifty Index (12)[*]07: March 7 Weekend Look at the SP 500 Index (30)[*]06: Johnson and Johnson JNJ Takes an Unexpected Turn (4)[*]06: SP 500 Stocks Under $10 (4)[*]05: A Look Inside the Trend Day in Gold GLD (4)[*]05: Where Are We in the Wave Structure? Elliott Intro (3)[*]05: Looking Back on the 1929 Stock Market Crash (9)[*]05: A MidWeek Look at Gold Daily Chart (13)[*]04: Rounded Reversal Underway in Stocks (15)[*]04: A Quick Chart Look at Apple AAPL (2)[*]03: A Look Back at US Steel (0)[*]03: Resolution of the 1937 Dow Bear Market (11)[*]02: With SP500 at New Lows the VIX Has Room to Run (4)[*]02: Amazing Similarities in Dow Jones 1937 and Today (13)[*]02: Longterm View of Crude Oil since 1990 (5)[*]01: Full Scale Elliott Wave Count on the SP500 (27)February 2009(59)
[*]28: Looking Inside Friday’s Intraday Reversal (16)[*]27: SP500 Support and Fibonacci off 1980s Low (20)[*]27: Quick Elliott Wave Update on the SP 500 (22)[*]26: Intraday Bear Flags Galore (9)[*]26: A Weekly Chart Update on Apple AAPL (4)[*]26: NASDAQ Outperformance and Structure (3)[*]25: Sell Signal in Silver? (3)[*]25: The Dollar and Japanese Yen - FOREX Chart Video (3)[*]24: Intraday Divergences Preceding Reversal (17)[*]24: Fibonacci Confluence Prices on Gold Weekly (0)[*]23: Something You Never Want to See as an Investor (12)[*]23: The Market Remains Smarter than All (6)[*]23: Fibonacci Confluence in 10 Year Note Price (6)[*]22: Weekly Nifty Indian Stock Exchange Analysis (10)[*]22: Trader Tax Bill and Petition (15)[*]21: Failed Rounded Reversal Example in CitiGroup (1)[*]20: Interesting Lessons from Friday’s Almost Trend Day Down (7)[*]20: How Do I Create the 3/10 Oscillator? (16)[*]19: The Dow Theory Sell Signal Given Today (0)[*]19: Trend Trading the Dow Jones (0)[*]19: Of Banks and Beer Sales (0)[*]18: Silver Completing Textbook Rounded Reversal and Monthly View (9)[*]18: The Disciplined Investor Free Book Download from MSN (0)[*]18: ETF Profit Driver Member’s Site Preview (2)[*]18: A Tale of Two Competing Head and Shoulders (11)[*]17: Dow Jones and XLF - A Test of New Lows (6)[*]17: SP500 View with Elliott Projection to Start the Week (2)[*]16: A Quick Large Scale Elliott Wave View of the US Dollar Index (2)[*]16: ETF Profit Blueprint (2)[*]16: Netflix NFLX Challenges New High with Elliott Count (0)[*]15: A Weekend Look at the XLF Financial Sector (1)[*]14: Elliott Wave on the Indian Stock Exchange (18)[*]13: Set Your StockCharts up Like Corey (6)[*]13: A Quick Update on the US Dollar Index (6)[*]12: Double Bear Flag and Strange Rally Intraday (13)[*]12: Daily Structure and Support in Apple AAPL (0)[*]12: Rounded Reversal in RIMM with Broken Support (0)[*]12: Mid-Week NewsFlashr Editor’s Picks (2)[*]11: Weekly and Daily Take on Gold Prices (11)[*]11: Extreme Divergence and Rounded Reversal in USO US Oil (8)[*]10: 5 and 15 Minutes of Downside Doom in the DIA (17)[*]10: Strange Gap Fills and Traps in UBS (2)[*]10: Using SmartScan to Find Winning Trades (0)[*]09: Elliott Wave in Intricate Detail on the DIA One Minute Chart (15)[*]09: 15 Companies that Might Not Survive 2009 (0)[*]09: A View of the SP500 Structure to Start the Week (4)[*]08: A Little Trick in Friday’s Trend Day Up (1)[*]06: Video: Fibonacci in the Gold Market (1)[*]06: Trading Rising and Falling Wedges (6)[*]05: Gap Fade Stats for All of 2008 (2)[*]05: Gap Fade Stats for January 09 (0)[*]04: Sector Rotation and Performance in January (0)[*]04: NewsFlashr Weekly Links (0)[*]03: 15 minute Rounded Reversal in the DIA (5)[*]03: Rounded Reversal in Crude Oil (4)[*]02: Conflicting Intraday Performance (0)[*]02: Possible Elliott Wave on the SP 500 Daily Chart (15)[*]02: Three Trade Examples in the EUR USD (3)[*]01: Clean ABC on TLT Bond Fund (6)January 2009(68)
[*]31: Interesting Developments in Friday Trend Day Down (6)[*]30: Sirius SIRI Why You Should Never Buy Because it is Cheap (8)[*]30: Why You Should Turn Off Indicators on Trend Days (8)[*]29: Trading the Strong Trend Day Down on Thursday (16)[*]29: A Monthly and Weekly View of Silver (3)[*]29: SMB Video: A Day on the Street (0)[*]28: The Double Dip Trend Day Up on Wednesday (6)[*]28: A Look at a Key Price in Daily Gold (14)[*]27: 30 Minutes in Trader Hell (18)[*]27: The Lipstick Indicator EL (3)[*]26: Distortion in the Dow Jones Index (6)[*]26: Caterpillar CAT Confirms Bull Trap and Tests November Lows (11)[*]26: Strong Education Stocks APOL and ESI Clobbered (8)[*]25: Weekend Links for January 25 2009 (2)[*]24: A Weekly Look at the XLF Financials with Elliott Wave (18)[*]23: Extreme Triangulation (12)[*]23: Server Upgrade (2)[*]23: Intraday Range Compression This Week (10)[*]22: Well at Least Half of the Day Made Sense (5)[*]22: Relative Strength of Discretionary to Staples XLY to XLP (11)[*]21: Rare Intraday Mirror Image (3)[*]21: Meet Corey at the Orlando Money Show (2)[*]21: Swing Trading eBay for Fun and Profit (0)[*]21: Tuesday’s Terrible Trend Day (3)[*]20: A Look at the Carnage in Financials Tuesday XLF WFC C (4)[*]20: Possible Reversal in USO US Oil Fund and Crude (9)[*]19: Classic Fibonacci Clusters in the SP500 Index (4)[*]19: Is a Reversal Brewing in the CRB Commodity Index? (4)[*]18: A Few Weekend Links (0)[*]17: Intraday and Daily Financial XLF Structure (7)[*]16: Peek Over Corey’s Shoulder to his Trading Screens (27)[*]16: Top Ten SP500 Stocks Close to 52 Week Highs (0)[*]15: Absolutely Fascinating Intraday Affairs (18)[*]15: Gap Fade Stats for December 08 (6)[*]15: A Look at XLF Financials Sector (6)[*]14: A Look at Apple AAPL’s Trend Intraday and Daily (2)[*]14: New FOREX Video: Hewison’s Favorite Market (2)[*]14: We’re All Set to Test or Break the November Lows (18)[*]13: A Tuesday Look at the SP500 Index (11)[*]13: A Look at the Recent Strength in the Japanese Yen (4)[*]12: Monday’s Average Trend Day Down (12)[*]12: Two Competing Elliott Wave Counts on the SP 500 (28)[*]11: NewsFlashr Editor Picks for the Weekend (0)[*]11: NewsFlashr Launches New Editor’s Picks Section (0)[*]11: Quick Count of the Australian All Ords Index (11)[*]10: Elliott Wave Count on the GBPUSD FOREX Pair (7)[*]09: Interesting Elliott Wave Count in Feeder Cattle (8)[*]09: A Quick Glance at the SDS - 2x Short SP500 (16)[*]08: Trend Day turned Rounded Reversal (17)[*]08: SHLD Perfect Confluence Trade Set-up (6)[*]08: Simple vs Exponential Moving Averages (4)[*]07: Wednesday’s Trend Day Down with Flags (11)[*]07: Afraid to Trade Archive Page Now Open (13)[*]07: A Daily and Weekly View of Goldman Sachs GS (14)[*]06: Caterpillar CAT at Vitally Important Juncture (6)[*]06: Viewing the Commodity CRB Index in 2008 (7)[*]06: Comparing Cross-Market Performance for 2008 (4)[*]05: Inside Today’s Interesting but Frustrating Trading (18)[*]05: Looking at UNG Natural Gas Fund and Divergences (1)[*]05: A Short and Long Term Look at Crude Oil (19)[*]04: Digging Deeper into the Recent Rally (14)[*]03: Timing Entries into Your 401k (13)[*]03: Daily and Weekly View of the SP 500 (16)[*]02: The Most Perfect Trend Day Ever (27)[*]02: Market Cracks Overhead Resistance (6)[*]02: Confluence Support Zone for the 1987 Low (2)[*]01: A Weekly Chart Look at the 1987 Market Crash (10)[*]01: A Technical Look at the 1987 Stock Market Crash (4)December 2008(62)
[*]31: 2008 Final Index Performance Numbers (9)[*]31: Nice Trend Day Up - Good Way to End 2008 (5)[*]31: Long Term Structure of the Euro Index (5)[*]30: A Trend Day that Teetered in the Balance and other Signals (11)[*]30: Announcing Completion of CMT Level III Exam (18)[*]30: Volume Surging in USO and DXO Oil Funds (11)[*]30: Gap, Support, Bull Flag - and the Day is Half Complete (16)[*]29: Revealing Intraday Patterns in the DIA (12)[*]29: Dinosaur Trader Selects Best Posts of 2008 from Bloggers (10)[*]29: Long Term Structure of the British Pound (6)[*]28: Looking Back on Buffett’s Predictions for 2008 (0)[*]27: Three Month Sector Rotation Insights (4)[*]26: Triangle Action in the DIA (15)[*]26: Holiday Link Time (6)[*]24: Current Gold Price Structure (13)[*]23: Daily Diamonds - Volume and Resistance Insights (11)[*]23: Charting eBay and Amazon AMZN (9)[*]22: The Basics of Price Charts (2)[*]22: Long Term Structure of the 30 Year Treasury Bond (5)[*]21: Long Term Structure of the US Dollar Index (16)[*]21: Link: Smart Goals vs Dumb Goals for 2009 (8)[*]20: Link: Nine Last Minute Easy Steps to Lower Your Taxes (1)[*]20: A Rounded Reversal in Store for RIMM? (5)[*]19: Stepping Back in Time - Elliott Wave Count of 2000 to 2003 (28)[*]19: Index Ascending Triangle Coming to Apex (8)[*]18: A Trend Day Down Full of Bear Flags (13)[*]18: Best Posts of 2008 on Afraid to Trade (7)[*]17: Elliott Wave Interpretation for the Financials XLF (16)[*]17: Large Scale Fibonacci Price Projections in the SP500 (10)[*]16: Which Elliott 4th Wave Are We In Currently? (54)[*]16: Trends and Timing in the FOREX Market (0)[*]15: Inside Monday’s Intraday Trading Action (7)[*]15: If You Really Want to Trade Crude Oil Aggressively try DXO and DTO (6)[*]15: A Look at the Strengthening Euro Index (4)[*]14: Fibonacci Confluence Support Zones for the US Dollar Index (4)[*]13: Weekend SP 500 Index Overview (8)[*]12: Gold at Significant Turning Point (3)[*]12: Daily Chart Positions of the US Dollar and Crude Oil (3)[*]11: Idealized Trades for Thursday in the DIA (8)[*]11: Signal and Static Noise in XOM (0)[*]11: Oddities in the US Dollar ETF UUP (5)[*]10: Bullish Volume Surge in USO US Oil Fund (10)[*]10: Adam Hewison Introduces the Pullback Rule and Fibonacci (2)[*]10: A Technical Take on Google GOOG (3)[*]09: Intraday Action for Tuesday (5)[*]09: Airlines Showing Relative Strength with Crude Oil Down (8)[*]09: Crude Oil Finds Longterm Support and Buy Signal at $40 (5)[*]08: SP500 Fibonacci Price Clusters and Confluence Chart (1)[*]08: Elliott Wave 4 Rally Appears Confirmed - with Targets (5)[*]07: Elliott Wave Count on the 10 Year Note and Yield (0)[*]06: Note Prices Soar While Yields Plunge (6)[*]05: Gotta Watch Those Rounded Reversal Days (9)[*]05: Chicos Fashion CHS - Long Elliott Wave Analysis (0)[*]04: Gap Fade Stats for November (0)[*]04: A Long Term Technical Look at Apple AAPL (9)[*]03: A Look at Dry Ships DRYS (9)[*]03: Elliott Wave on the Baltic Dry Index (1)[*]03: Analyzing Tuesday’s Intraday Action (0)[*]02: Elliott Wave Count on the German DAX Index (5)[*]02: Hewison on the Trend of the Dow Jones (2)[*]01: Interesting Intraday Action Today (3)[*]01: What is Meant by Price “Structure?” (2)November 2008(48)
[*]30: Elliott Wave Count on the CRB Commodity Index (8)[*]29: Weekend SP500 Overview with Projection (13)[*]28: Holiday Linking (0)[*]26: Elliott Wave Analysis on the Euro (14)[*]26: Examining Tuesday’s Fluid Intraday Swings (2)[*]25: Reversal in the US Dollar Index Underway (6)[*]25: Extreme Volatility in Leveraged SKF (0)[*]24: Large Scale Fibonacci in the Dow Jones (17)[*]24: Is Gold Set to Rise? (0)[*]23: A Look at the Devastation in US Steel X (0)[*]22: Interesting Fibonacci Development (8)[*]21: Divergences and a Potential Completed Elliott Pattern with Projection (24)[*]21: Just How Low Can the Dow Jones Go (9)[*]21: Free Live Streaming Video from the Vegas Traders Expo (2)[*]20: Inside Today’s DIA Trading Patterns (2)[*]20: A Look Back at the 2002 Bear Market Bottom (2)[*]19: Midweek SP 500 Overview (5)[*]19: Midweek Dow Index Overview (3)[*]18: Sears Holdings SHLD Steady Price Plunge (0)[*]18: Pivot, Divergence, and Elliott (4)[*]17: Jerry Yang Steps Down as Yahoo CEO - With Charts (4)[*]17: ADX Compression in the DIA (5)[*]17: Begin the Week with Links (5)[*]16: Possible Elliott Wave Interpretation for the SP 500 (6)[*]16: Weekly SP 500 Overview (4)[*]15: A Look Back at Last Week via the 30 Minute Charts (2)[*]14: Rounded Reversal Structure Underway (10)[*]14: Gold at Resistance - Watch Closely (4)[*]13: Chaotic Day - A Look Inside the Action (5)[*]13: Google GOOG Dips Beneath $300 (0)[*]13: Dollar, Stocks, Crude - What is Next? (1)[*]12: Another Trend Day Down Example (4)[*]12: Two Recent Insidious Bull Traps Revealed (4)[*]11: A Day of Structured Chaos (2)[*]10: Gap, Flag, and Divergence: A Day that Had it All (5)[*]10: US Dollar Index Holding Strong (1)[*]09: Goldman Sachs Triangulates to New Lows on Positive Divergence (1)[*]09: Weekend Linking In (6)[*]08: Inside a Volume Divergence (8)[*]07: New Hewison Video: Where is the Bottom in Crude Oil (1)[*]06: A Perfect Trend Day Example (1)[*]06: Just How Low can Crude Oil Go? (5)[*]05: Current Dow Structure and Possible Resistance (9)[*]04: US Election Day - Current Projections (0)[*]04: Post Number 1,000 (6)[*]03: Intro to Elliott Wave Article in SFO (0)[*]03: Gap Fade Stats for October (0)[*]01: Gold Hits Resistance - Target Below (7)October 2008(43)
[*]30: The Rise and Fall of Nokia NOK (0)[*]30: Strange SP 500 Confluence Ahead (10)[*]29: CMT Level 3 Exam Today and MTA Sponsorship Request (19)[*]28: A Recent View of Goldman Sachs GS (3)[*]27: What a Fresh Five Year Low Looks Like (2)[*]27: Foundations of Technical Analysis (5)[*]26: A Monthly View of Gold Prices (4)[*]25: A Glance at the Daily NASDAQ and SP500 (3)[*]24: SP 500 Futures Overnight Lock Limit Down - Compare to Gold and Oil (0)[*]23: Link: Really Scary Fed Charts! (3)[*]23: Russia Hit Extremely Hard (4)[*]22: SP 500 Triangle Continues (5)[*]22: Crude Oil Dips Beneath $70 (2)[*]21: Monthly Charts of a Homebuilder and a Financial Company (0)[*]20: Gold the Game Changer? (1)[*]19: A Little Daily Index Triangulation (4)[*]18: How to Project Measured Move Flag Targets in TradeStation (1)[*]17: Possible DIA Intraday Elliott Wave Interpretation (2)[*]17: Breaking Down Thursday’s Action (0)[*]16: Damage on Monthly Charts - XOM and JNJ (1)[*]15: Current NASDAQ Elliott Wave Count (2)[*]15: NASDAQ Hit the Hardest (0)[*]14: Is the Retracement Rally Already Finished? (7)[*]14: Fear (0)[*]13: Classic (though record) Trend Day Example (0)[*]13: Why is the US Dollar Index Rallying So Sharply? (2)[*]12: Apple Holds its Own (2)[*]10: Wild Intraday Action (8)[*]09: The Two Prior 7 Day Declines in the Dow since 2000 (5)[*]09: Devastation (6)[*]09: Market Club: Is Gold Ready to Skyrocket? (2)[*]08: SP 500 Tests Major Monthly Moving Average (3)[*]07: Interesting Developments in Potash POT (4)[*]06: A Little Elliott Wave Into the Close (3)[*]06: One-Minute Elliott Wave Example on today’s DIA (1)[*]06: SP500 Damage Done on Monthly Chart (10)[*]05: US Dollar Index Makes Fresh 2008 Highs (6)[*]03: Hey, Who Stole My Rally?! (3)[*]03: Two Recent Elliott Wave Impulse Examples (4)[*]02: The Three Hard Rules of Elliott Wave Theory (2)[*]02: Intraday Ascending Triangle Example in DIA (0)[*]01: Gap Fade Stats for September (0)[*]01: Roller Coaster Market (0)September 2008(50)
[*]30: Research in Motion RIMM Falls - Support Below? (0)[*]29: When the Dust Settles - NASDAQ, Dollar, Crude Oil (0)[*]29: VIX Surges to New High Not Seen Since 1998 (0)[*]29: Apple AAPL Slides Sharply on Downgrade (0)[*]28: Weekend SP 500 Overview (0)[*]27: A Quick Look at the US Presidential Election (0)[*]26: The End of Washington Mutual WM - A Look Back (3)[*]25: Dollar Supports… For Now (1)[*]25: Intraday Action Since Last Friday - Divergences (0)[*]24: Had Enough Therapy? (0)[*]23: A Look at Gold Prices - Two Views (3)[*]22: Dollar Index Targets Achieved Today (2)[*]22: US Dollar Index Structure and Support Zone (3)[*]20: Right Back Where We Began (1)[*]20: Five Days that Shook the Financial World: A Chart (1)[*]19: A Quick Peek at the S&P and Russell Morning Pop (1)[*]19: Link: Seven Deadly Sins of Deregulation (1)[*]18: Gold’s Stunning Two-Way Reversal (4)[*]18: Underperforming Emerging Markets (1)[*]17: A Quick Look at Apple Inc AAPL and Technology (7)[*]17: A Quick Look at Goldman Sachs GS (1)[*]16: S&P Hits Large Scale Monthly 50% Fibonacci Retracement (0)[*]16: Sector Performance from Monday (0)[*]15: A Quick Look at Previous 4% Down Moves in the S&P 500 (0)[*]15: A Look at the Dow Jones 30 Midday and End of Day (2)[*]15: Use Extreme Caution in the Week Ahead (1)[*]13: How I Set Up My Charts (7)[*]12: Projecting S&P Price Targets with a Breakout (0)[*]11: The Daily Dow (2)[*]11: Looking at Lehman LEH (0)[*]10: Interesting Setup in Goldman Sachs GS (0)[*]10: A Look at the Steel Index (1)[*]10: Gold Makes Fresh 2008 Low (2)[*]09: Foreign Currencies Plunge (10)[*]09: Take a Look at Google GOOG DELL and Technology XLK (0)[*]08: Fun Intraday Rounded Reversals and Smiles (1)[*]08: An Oddity in the Airlines Today (0)[*]08: Charting Freddie FRE and Fannie FNM Perhaps for the Last Time (0)[*]06: Gap Fade Stats for August (4)[*]06: Intraday Action from Friday (0)[*]05: Inside the Recent Bearish Rising Wedge (2)[*]05: A Quick Look at the Current S&P Weekly Structure (2)[*]04: Large Scale Ascending Triangle in Copper (1)[*]04: The Dollar, Fibonacci, and Trading from a Desert Island (0)[*]03: Prudential Financial PRU Bull Flag Example (5)[*]03: The DELL Decline (0)[*]02: What a Difference a Day Makes: Gold, Oil, Dollar, NASDAQ (2)[*]02: Clean Gap Fill Example on Goldman Sachs GS (0)[*]02: Looking at the August S&P 500 Action (0)[*]01: How to View Sector Performance in StockCharts (1)August 2008(54)
[*]31: Holiday Links (0)[*]30: Recent US Dollar Index Action Chart (3)[*]29: How to Achieve a 96% Win Rate (0)[*]28: Freddie Mac FRE Doubles in a Week (0)[*]28: Ideal Trades and Lessons from Wednesday’s Session (0)[*]27: A Quick Look at AAPL and GOOG Daily Charts (0)[*]26: A Quick View of the NASDAQ (1)[*]26: Top 10 Percentages Above and Below Moving Average (0)[*]26: Would You Trade This Stock? (3)[*]25: Was Anything Up on Monday? (4)[*]25: A Quick Look at Volume Clues on the Dow Jones (4)[*]24: Divergences in DUG (Oil & Gas ETF) (6)[*]23: Follow the Electoral College Presidential Projections (1)[*]22: Viewing the Current S&P and Russell 2000 (2)[*]22: Johnson and Johnson JNJ Reaches New Highs (0)[*]21: Interesting Development on the Russell 2000 (2)[*]21: Why is Trading in the Current Environment So Hard? (5)[*]21: Hedge Fund Blogger Richard Wilson (0)[*]20: Glancing at the Health Care Sector XLV (6)[*]20: New All-Time Lows For Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (5)[*]20: A Return to Simplicity: Up, Down, Sideways (0)[*]19: Crude Oil Reversal Back Up Underway? (1)[*]19: Market Gaps Through Support Trendline (0)[*]18: Monday’s Intraday Trading Tactics (2)[*]18: Market Retests Bottom Channel Intraday (0)[*]18: A Closer Look at July’s Gap Fills (0)[*]17: Head and Shoulders for the Utilities? (1)[*]16: Is There Potential Support for Gold at These Levels? (3)[*]15: HANS Pops 50% - Short Squeeze? (0)[*]15: Recent Money Flow Shift Affects Hedge Funds (1)[*]14: Quick Intraday Market Look (4)[*]14: The British Pound Plunge (0)[*]13: Apple’s (AAPL) Remarkable Recovery (10)[*]13: Index Triangle Pattern Becomes More Uncertain (2)[*]12: Gold Breaks Major Weekly Support (4)[*]12: Did You Know the Russell is close to New 2008 Highs? (7)[*]12: Charting the Weekly Dow Jones (1)[*]11: The Potash Plunge - Targets Achieved (4)[*]11: Bonddad: It’s a Recession that Won’t End Soon (0)[*]10: Looking at the Dow and its Components (3)[*]09: Significant Strengthening of the US Dollar (1)[*]08: The Thursday Measured Move and Intraday Tactics (4)[*]07: July Select Stats - Overnight Holding vs Intraday (2)[*]07: NewsFlashr Rolls Out New Features (5)[*]06: Gap Fade Stats for July (2)[*]06: Critical Test of US Dollar and CRB Index Coming Up (1)[*]05: A Quick Look at Tuesday’s Trend Day (0)[*]05: Risks Run High for Biotech Companies (0)[*]04: Crude Oil Fails Test - Continues its Slide (0)[*]04: Potash Breaks to Downside - Targets Established (0)[*]03: SFO Magazine All About Trading Systems (0)[*]02: Top Ten Stocks Extended Beyond their Moving Average (4)[*]01: Dow Forms Symmetrical Triange - Break Ahead? (3)[*]01: Russell 2000 Trapped - Showing Relative Strength (1)July 2008(57)
[*]31: Gold’s Make or Break Zone Coming Up (1)[*]31: Recent Market Club Trading Signals in Crude Oil (0)[*]30: Major Intermarket Relationships Shifting (4)[*]30: TA Legend Martin Pring turns Bullish on US Equities (0)[*]29: Yet Another Trend Day in the Market - Trading Tactics (3)[*]29: Current Dow Overview (0)[*]28: Yet Another Trend Day Down (0)[*]28: BUD Stairsteps to Profit - Random Walk? (0)[*]27: Top and Bottom 10 Stocks by ATR Percentage: Volatility (0)[*]27: Phases of a Bear Market (0)[*]25: Which Stocks Have the Highest and Lowest ATR? (4)[*]25: Dow Completes Weekly Measured Move (2)[*]24: Thursday’s Trend Day in the Dow and Ford (0)[*]24: Gold Takes Unexpected Swing (3)[*]23: A Useful Inflation Calculator (0)[*]23: Hear Russell Sands Discuss Turtle Trading (0)[*]22: AAPL Amazing Intraday Gap and Recovery (2)[*]22: Generate Your Own Equity Curve (Simulator) (0)[*]21: Gaming the Market (1)[*]21: Larger Divergences Form - Selling Ahead? (4)[*]20: Finviz New Group Performance Tool (0)[*]19: How GOOG Ended the Week and the Fall-out (0)[*]18: Confirmed Bear Market Rally Underway (9)[*]18: Will Your Starbucks be Closing? See Full List Here. (0)[*]17: SKF - UltraShort Financials: A Lesson in Defense and Stops (3)[*]17: Notable Links for Thursday (0)[*]16: Trading Wednesday’s Trend Day (5)[*]16: Oil Stocks Fall ahead of Oil Prices (0)[*]16: Apple’s AAPL Latest Actions (0)[*]15: S&P Financial Sector Monthly Charts (1)[*]15: Markets Lunge for 50% Monthly Fib Retracement (4)[*]14: Quick Intraday Structure Overview (0)[*]14: How Have Commodities Compared in 2008? (1)[*]14: Freddie & Fannie: Double Trouble (0)[*]13: Gold Breaks Out - Target $1000 (3)[*]12: Deteriorating Breadth - Warning Sign? (1)[*]11: Intraday Action - Surge and Plunge (1)[*]11: Small Edges with Consistent Returns (0)[*]11: The Collapse of Freddie Mac - FRE (0)[*]10: LMVTX: A Mutual Fund in Peril (1)[*]10: A Classic Pattern in Gold - Video (0)[*]09: Intraday Foibles, Flags, and Reversals (0)[*]09: Bond Yields Falling - Pullback or Reversal? (0)[*]08: Rounded Reversal Up Underway? (0)[*]08: How Have Global Indexes Held Up So Far? (0)[*]07: Fascinating Intraday Action Revealed (0)[*]07: Amazing Intraday Plunge (0)[*]07: Has Gold Broken Upside Resistance? (1)[*]06: Quick Weekend Reading (0)[*]06: Time to Buy AAPL? (3)[*]05: The Fall of Starbucks - SBUX in Three Timeframes (1)[*]04: Gap Fade Statistics for June (0)[*]03: Oil, Oil, Oil. Pullbacks Lead to Higher Prices (0)[*]02: US Steel Shows False Breakout and Reversal (1)[*]02: RIMM Inflects off 200 Day - How Far Will it Go? (1)[*]01: Shocker of a Day! Intraday Action Revealed (0)[*]01: What are the Monthly Index Charts Revealing? (0)June 2008(57)
[*]30: Monday’s Intraday Trading Tactics (0)[*]30: Gold Intraday Descending Triangle Break Example (0)[*]30: Weekly Index Fly-by (0)[*]29: A Few Sunday Reading Links (0)[*]28: Comparison of RIMM, AAPL, and GOOG (1)[*]27: Friday’s Intraday Index Trading Tactics (2)[*]27: How Did General Motors Lose its Edge in the Marketplace? (5)[*]26: Trading Today’s Large Trend Day (0)[*]26: Dow Breaks March Lows - Tests 2008 Lows (0)[*]25: Market Loved, Hated the Fed Decision (3)[*]25: Watch What the Fed Says, Not What it Does Today (0)[*]24: Alert: Dow Tests March Lows Today (3)[*]24: Utilities Holding their Own (0)[*]23: US Steel Melts Resistance (2)[*]23: The AAPL Retracement (3)[*]22: Monthly Overview of the Major Indexes (1)[*]21: Probability of a String of Profits or Losses (2)[*]20: The Arc of Opportunity is Almost Complete (2)[*]20: VMI - A High Flyer Crashes (0)[*]20: Sector Performance for June and 2008 (0)[*]19: Insights from a Difficult Trading Day (1)[*]19: Is Google Poised for a Larger Breakout? (0)[*]18: Today’s Intraday Trading Tactics (0)[*]18: Markets Continue their Downward Arc (0)[*]17: POT and MON Surge to New Highs (0)[*]17: Goldman Sachs Indeed Fades Upside Gap (2)[*]16: Three Views of Goldman Sachs Before Earnings (2)[*]16: Does Fading the Gap Work in APPL? (1)[*]15: Two Week Complimentary Trial to Market Club (0)[*]14: Is Gold Topping or Basing? (1)[*]13: A Final Bottom for the Dollar? (1)[*]13: Yields and the Curve - A Quick Look (0)[*]12: What’s Happening to AAPL?! (9)[*]12: Transports Driving off a Cliff (0)[*]11: Trading Today’s Trend Day Down (4)[*]11: Double Doji - Should Resolve with Larger Move (0)[*]10: Gas at the Pump $5 by End of 2008? (0)[*]10: AAPL Falling, Rising, Confusing (0)[*]09: AAPL Intraday - Why Didn’t it Rise?! (0)[*]09: Stops, Profit Targets, and Total Trades Taken (0)[*]08: Blog Roundup of Friday’s Market Activities (0)[*]07: The Dollar and Oil (0)[*]06: The Damage Done Across the Board (0)[*]06: Intraday Plunge Shocks Bulls (0)[*]06: WMT: An Unexpected Stock Breaking to New Highs (0)[*]05: Remarkable Recovery Leads to Interesting Juncture (2)[*]05: Ten Year Yields Still Rising (0)[*]04: Small Caps Strongly Outperforming (5)[*]04: CMT Level II Passed (11)[*]04: Net Profit Results of Fixed Stops and Targets (0)[*]03: Market Beginning a New Down Swing (2)[*]03: Full Linda Raschke Seminar - Five Trading Patterns (0)[*]03: The Dreaded Black Swan Chart Formation (0)[*]02: Fascinating Intraday Action (0)[*]02: Gap Fade Statistics for May (3)[*]02: The Five Components of Successful Trading - Whiteboard (0)[*]01: Does a 95% Win Rate Result in Net Profitability? (0)May 2008(65)
[*]31: Dry Ships Hits a Rock (1)[*]30: Revisiting Stop-Loss and Profit Target Affect on Win Rate (7)[*]30: TIPS Bond Fund and 20 Year Falling (2)[*]29: 10 Year Yield Breaks Resistance - Higher Rates Ahead? (2)[*]29: Wachovia Tests New Lows (1)[*]28: Momentum Shifting Upwards, but How Far? (2)[*]28: INO TV - the Logical Choice Video (0)[*]28: Clean Overnight FOREX Trend Trades (0)[*]27: Fixed Targets and Stops - Effect on Win Rate (2)[*]27: Six Steps for Setting Daily Goals (2)[*]27: Trading Bots and Skill Analytics Launched (2)[*]26: Sell in May and Go Away - Views Since 2002 (0)[*]25: VIX Inflects off Lows (2)[*]24: Dollar Index Rolls Over (2)[*]23: Ideal Intraday Trades before the Holiday (0)[*]23: Five Volume Principles to Guide Decisions (0)[*]22: Defensive Sector Posturing Occurring (0)[*]22: StockCharts New TickerRain Feature (0)[*]22: AAPL Retraces to Support Zone (0)[*]21: Intraday Leverage Ideas (0)[*]21: Rough Intraday Selloff (2)[*]21: Crude, Crude, Crude (0)[*]20: Bears Take Their Intraday Swipe (0)[*]20: Market Finally Tests Lower Prices (0)[*]20: Link: Closer Look at Profit Targets (0)[*]19: Intraday Reversal Action Stuns Traders (4)[*]19: Hear Corey on the Disciplined Investor Podcast (0)[*]19: How to Spot Winning Trades with Market Club (1)[*]18: Five Steps to Backtesting Successfully (0)[*]17: A Look Under the Market Hood (0)[*]16: Indexes Confused - Trapped (4)[*]16: New Apple Store Unveiled (0)[*]15: Intraday Trend Day Yet Again (0)[*]15: Indexes Trapped though NASDAQ Outperforms (0)[*]15: AAPL Divergence and Resolution (0)[*]15: Trend Day Turned Upside Down (0)[*]14: Gold Loses its Luster - Sell Signal Confirmed (0)[*]14: Three Strong Stocks on Falling Volume (0)[*]13: Is Google Finding Support (0)[*]13: Clean Trends on FOREX Charts (0)[*]13: KNDL - Massive Head and Shoulders (0)[*]12: Alcoa Breaks to New Highs (0)[*]12: Intraday Semi-Trend Index Action (0)[*]12: A Little U-Turn Buy Action with Gap Fade (0)[*]11: Market Status with Materials and Healthcare (0)[*]10: Dollar Bumps Weekly Resistance (1)[*]10: How to Increase Your Win Rate Easily (0)[*]09: Interesting Intraday Action in AAPL (1)[*]09: Crude Oil and Trade Triangles (2)[*]08: Commodities Race to New Highs (2)[*]08: VIX Off 2008 New Lows (0)[*]08: Intraday Foibles (1)[*]07: Indexes at Support or Resistance? (1)[*]07: Current Yield Curve Turns Bullish (2)[*]06: Tuesday Intraday Index Fun (0)[*]06: Smaller Opening Gap Statistics (3)[*]05: Fallout Begins from MSFT and YHOO (2)[*]04: AAPL Surges and Impresses (0)[*]03: Inside a Dark Cloud Cover (0)[*]03: Google Surges, Forms Dark Cloud Cover (4)[*]02: Dollar Rallies and Gold Falls (0)[*]02: Major Index Gaps and Fills (0)[*]01: Some Surprising Trend Day Action (0)[*]01: Gap Fade Stats for April (1)[*]01: A Look Inside the Transports (0)April 2008(77)
[*]30: Stunning Intraday Action (1)[*]30: How to Trade a Rectangle Consolidation (0)[*]29: IBM Impresses Investors (1)[*]29: Transports Outperforming Dow (0)[*]29: The Disciplined Investor Podcast Series (0)[*]28: Support Confluence (2)[*]28: Moving Average Respect Example (0)[*]27: Correlation Between Yields and Stocks (1)[*]27: Dollar and the Dow Positions (0)[*]26: Potash Continues to Impress (0)[*]26: Stock Market Overview (0)[*]25: Dollar Recovery Could Shake Commodities (0)[*]24: US Dollar and Commodities (0)[*]24: Selected Tech Stocks Trapped at Resistance (0)[*]24: Monthly View of the SP 500 (0)[*]23: Gold and the US Dollar (1)[*]23: Stock Market and Gold Correlation (2)[*]23: Stock Correlation with the 10 Year Yield (3)[*]22: A Day of Divergences and Interesting Trades (0)[*]22: Announcing INO TV in Detail (3)[*]22: AAPL Insights (0)[*]21: Rising Intraday Support (0)[*]21: Inside a Momentum Divergence (0)[*]21: Markets – Truly a Leading Indicator? (1)[*]20: A Focus on Key Sectors (0)[*]20: Recent Clues from Sector Rotation (0)[*]19: Indexes Close at Resistance (0)[*]18: Sweet Intraday Action for the Bulls (0)[*]18: The Disciplined Investor Interviews Robert Reich (0)[*]18: Caterpillar Claws through the Competition (0)[*]18: GOOG: Who Saw That Coming? (0)[*]17: Crude Oil Gushes to New Highs (2)[*]17: Another Peek at the US Dollar (0)[*]17: All 11 Trader’s Educational Whiteboard Videos (0)[*]16: Another Trend Style Day Emerges (2)[*]16: Link: Mid-Size Gap Ups (0)[*]16: GOOG Has Trouble at Resistance (0)[*]16: CROX Gets Bitten – Twice Shy (1)[*]15: Fascinating Intraday Action (1)[*]15: Gap Fade Becomes Bear Flag (5)[*]15: Market Cleanly Fills the Gap (2)[*]14: AAPL Pulls Back for a Potential Buy (0)[*]14: Three Types of Morning Openings (0)[*]14: Blockbuster Offers to Buy Circuit City (0)[*]13: Quick Market Overview (0)[*]12: Tips on Trading Trend Days (1)[*]11: What is a Doji? (2)[*]11: Just When You Thought the Commodity Bull Stumbled (0)[*]10: Crude Oil Notches First Close above $110 (0)[*]10: The Yahoo Saga Deepens (1)[*]09: VIX Settles Into a Channel (1)[*]09: What Would You like to Hear in a Podcast? (13)[*]09: Which Way is Gold Headed (0)[*]08: Market Faces Two Lines in the Sand (1)[*]08: Charting Microsoft and Yahoo (0)[*]08: Another Day, Another Gap Fade (3)[*]07: Intraday Ideal Trades for April 7 (0)[*]07: AAPL continues its Ascension (2)[*]07: Google Search for Recession (0)[*]06: Gap Fade Statistics for March (2)[*]05: Is Citigroup Waking Up (6)[*]05: Shanghai Exchange Resembles NASDAQ Bubble (0)[*]05: A Little Index Overview (0)[*]04: Potash Amazes Us with New Highs (1)[*]04: How to Trade a Bull Flag (5)[*]04: Market Club Q1 Trade Triangle Results Revealed (0)[*]03: Apple Turns the Corner (0)[*]03: The Complete Trader’s Whiteboard Series (0)[*]03: Smooth Gap Fill this Morning (0)[*]02: UBS Writes Down $19 Billion â
Gambler’s Fallacy
March 7th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
What is the “Gambler’s Fallacy” and how might it describe why you may not be achieving the trading results you’ve been expecting?
According to The Skeptic’s Dictionary, the Gambler’s Fallacy is the incorrect notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease upon observing the most recent occurrences.
The classic fallacy plays itself out on the Roulette wheel, when the ball has landed on a red number 4 or 5 times in a row, and gamblers believe that red is now “hot” and so they place their bets more frequently on red, even though the fixed chance of red coming up is 47.5%.
Roulette wheels take advantage of this fallacy by posting the most recent numbers and colors on flashy boards near the roulette wheel.ÂIt causes gamblers either to say a certain number or color is hot or cold, and so they irrationally adjust their betting strategies to accommodate this perceived (though false) edge.
Similarly, if a fair coin has been tossed numerous times and the last 4 throws have been heads, then a better commits this fallacy one of two ways:
1)ÂBy betting heads because he expects heads to come up because it has come up the last 4 times in a row
2)ÂBy betting tails because he expects tails to come up because it has NOT come up in the last 4 throws and he feels it is “due”
Notice that expectation plays a major role in committing the fallacy.ÂIn reality, the outcome of the probability is 50%.
In trading, there are plenty of chances to commit this fallacy, but note that the odds and probabilities in trading are not actually fixed, but often change, which complicates the situation.
However, if your strategy has a certain, discerned edge, then you can create this fallacy the same way if you adjust trading size or expectations significantly based on the results of your last three or four trades.
If you know your trade set-up (or strategy) has a 60% win rate, and you have just experienced 7 winning trades in a row, you would commit the error by doubling your position size because you expect the next trade also to be a big win, or cutting your size in half because you expect the next trade to be a loser because 7 trades in a row is just too good to be true.
The key is to know your probabilities, stick to a certain ‘betting style’ or method of selecting trades (that you know have an edge), and continuing to let the probabilities play themselves out naturally, rather than trying to step in and tweak them whenever you feel either frightened or unstoppable.
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Daily View from the Top
March 6th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Let’s take a quick look at where we stand and were we may be heading on the US Stock Market chart, using the Dow Jones Index as our proxy.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030608-2335-dailyviewfr1.png
I don’t normally draw so many lines on the chart, but there are a variety of support and resistance levels, many of which I have not drawn.
Notice the major confluence of resistance that took place at the 12,300 level in terms of the overlap of the recent triangle, which was just beneath the falling 20 period moving average. In addition, the market had just ‘busted’ an upside break of the triangle, and failed moves (or unexpected moves â
Do You Know Where Your Commodity Has Been?
March 5th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
You’ve probably heard that commodity prices are rising, but have you looked at individual commodities and what that might mean for you or the market?
Let’s peek at a few selected commodities and see exactly what magnitude these commodities have been making new lifetime highs.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030508-1702-doyouknowwh1.png
Soybean prices (above) have virtually doubled since October 2007 and almost tripled since mid-2006.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030508-1702-doyouknowwh2.png
Wheat prices have almost quadrupled since 2006, before pulling back recently.
Higher wheat prices affect consumers in a variety of ways, the most obvious being that the cost of bread and other food products will likely increase, as has the price of milk and eggs over the last year.
Finally, let’s view corn prices:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030508-1702-doyouknowwh3.png
Thanks to the ethanol possibilities and other pressures, corn prices have almost tripled since 2006.
I highlighted a perverse bull flag on the weekly chart, which has actually exceeded its ‘measured move’ component recently, as price is making all-time contract highs.
Oil and Gold (not shown) are also making new highs and showing similar major uptrend patterns.
Will these prices affect the economy in terms of higher inflation for everyday goods?
It’s probable, but let’s see how long it takes for these realities to sink into the financial media and general public.
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Fun Intraday Trades
March 5th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Tuesday’s action provided a plethora of key set-ups and high probability trades on the short time frame intraday charts on the US Indexes.
Let’s check out the Dow Jones “Diamonds” ETF (DIA):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030508-0655-funintraday1.png
The first trade when there’s an overnight gap is to fade the gap for at least a 50% retracement and a potential full gap fade. Today only gave us a 50% fade trade early on.
At the failure to close the gap, the market offered up a clear bear flag trade which targeted a ‘measured move’ of the initial flagpole (which included the invisible overnight gap price).
Any pullback to the key 20 period moving average set up a trade with a small target of the previous swing’s price low. These trades worked, but the momentum divergence that was building (purple line) gave clues that the bears were losing steam.
Aggressive traders could have played both sides of the channel that developed, but ‘counter-trend trading’ by buying down-swings in a clear trend day down can be a low probability strategy.
Fortunately, the lengthy momentum divergence led to an upside break of the strong downtrending channel of the day, leading to a miniature bull flag entry and “three push” pattern.
A key breakout trade came NOT at the breakout zone, but at the purple oval I’ve drawn, which represented the pullback to retest the channel and key moving averages.
Visit and join MarketClub for a plethora of information, including the new “trade triangle” technology, daily analysis/commentary, daily videos, and other valuable information for traders.
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Link: Really Scary Fed Charts
March 4th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Ben at The Financial Ninja blog posted examples of “Really Scary Federal Reserve Charts,” in which he discusses some alarming facts straight from the Federal Reserve.
Ben makes good use of the Federal Reserve website of St. Louis, which I had highlighted in a previous post about the coolness of the data available to you there.
Notice the ’scariest’ chart, which discusses that non-borrowed bank reserves have gone negative.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030408-1637-linkreallys1.png
Just a few months ago, non-borrowed reserves were above $40 billion and now they are negative.
I’ve heard other commentaries on this particular chart and concept, and I’m not qualified at all to discuss them, but I wanted to point out this chart to those who have not seen it yet.
Ben further lists six points and briefly yet concisely explains the charts he collected from the Fed’s website, and leads to a most interesting conclusion:
“Bottom callers in general will become extinct. Those calling for specific bottoms, in financials and real estate for example, will become extinct first.”
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A Little Intraday Flag Action
March 4th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Today saw yet another gap fade and bear flag so far:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030408-1713-alittleintr1.png
In February, 75% of trading days had an overnight gap. Will March be similar? So far, we’re 2 for 2!
Again, the first play is to fade the gap for at least a 50% retracement into the gap. The pure target is yesterday’s close, but sometimes a more tantalizing trade develops in the form of a bear flag into moving average resistance.
If you’re apt at candlesticks, you’ll notice the large upper shadows on each 5-minute candle that formed the 45 degree angle flag. Finally, a hammer (almost a gravestone doji) formed beneath the key 20 period moving average, signaling a trade (short-sell) to target a “measured move” of the previous ‘flagpole.”
That trade worked out instantly and gave great satisfaction, with the market reversing right as the measured move was complete.
Right now, we may be forming a second bear flag, but the positive momentum divergence will likely limit its potential for a full profit.
Intraday action is almost always fascinating!ÂCheck out the features at INO TV and learn from over 100 educators across a wide range of topics.
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Sector Clues for the Year to Date
March 4th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Let’s look at some insights from the Sector Rotation Model and also Sector Returns to date:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030408-1619-sectorclues1.png
Since the start of 2008, all nine Sector SPDRs were negative, with Materials performing the ‘best’ by only losing 0.36%.
Technology has fared the poorest, losing a massive 17% (thanks to Google and Apple and many others under intense pressure).
If we compare these returns and make them relative to the S&P Index, we see clues from the Sector Rotation Theory:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030408-1619-sectorclues2.png
The model is providing relatively unclear results, as these sectors are aligned from left to right in terms of how money flows from sector to sector as the funds ‘rotate’ positions among the major sectors.
Again, materials have outperformed (relative to the S&P), and we see a negative money flow pattern (purple arrow) on the right side of the chart.
The ‘ghost in the machine’ is the Technology sector, which has grossly underperformed all other sectors.
It is interesting to note that, although all sectors are underwater for the year, all sectors except Utilities, Financials, and Technology have outperformed the S&P index.
With the trend still down, it’s best not to buy sectors except as a hedge. From the above pattern, it’s difficult to predict where the money will be flowing next.
Why is it confusing? From a sector rotation standpoint, the current chart (relative strength) is showing a late bull market, rather than early bear which was showing up.
Keep in mind this is only two months worth of data (40 trading days).
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Gap Fade Statistics for February
March 3rd, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/030408-0038-gapfadestat1.pngLet’s take a quick look at the base statistics for overnight gaps and fills for the month of February.
I used the DIA (Dow Jones ETF) for the basis of the study, though the SPY gives near identical results in terms of percentages.
Of the 20 trading days in the month of February, 2008, an astounding 15 days had some sort of overnight gap, meaning that 75% of trading days in February experienced an overnight gap in the stock market.
Of these 15 days with a gap, 8 gaps filled by the close of the day, and 7 gaps remained unfilled by the close of the trading day.
Thus, the classic gap-fade strategy (entering to trade against the gap) held a slight edge over trading in the direction of the gap from a percentage basis, 53% successful to 47% failure.
Your actual profit for this strategy would be dependent on your type of stop-loss method and position sizing strategy you use.
Here is a quick summary of the data:
Of the 20 total trading days in February, 15 resulted in an overnight gap.
8 (53%) of these trading days filled the gap, while 7 (47%) did not.
See my earlier post on Gap Fade Statistics for January, where 65% (13 of 20) of trading days resulted in a gap, and of these 13, 9 (70%) of the gaps filled the same day and 4 (30%) did not.
For trivia’s sake, 28 of the last 41 trading days (68%) have resulted in overnight gaps, and 17 of those 28 have filled, meaning that 60% of this year’s gaps have filled by the close.
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Recent Gaps Canâ
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-23 06:36 编辑 ]
Intraday Insights
February 28th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Today was in interesting day in terms of intraday analysis and trading. Let’s take a look at what happened today!
First, the idealized trades in the SPY on the 5-minute chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022808-2336-intradayins1.png
While the chart may seem garbled, let’s take it step by step.
First, notice the gap fade trade that resulted in a bear flag. Traders should have entered early to play for a full gap-fade, but realized profits when the market began to roll-over at key moving average resistance (first arrow).
Savvy traders realized the bear flag pattern and entered short aggressively at this zone to play for a ‘measured move’ target.
Exiting at the full price target, traders either could have bought for a reversal trade, but more likely should have stayed out, expecting market consolidation following a large volatility price move.
The multi-swing positive momentum divergence that developed hinted at higher prices yet to come, and the 1:00pm triangle led to a volatility breakout (long) trade.
A momentum divergence formed right at 3:00pm, which hinted at lower prices, but did not alert to a trend change. Divergences usually give targets that allow us to play for the 20 period moving average only.
Price broke these averages and found resistance at these levels into the close, and the market closed near its lows, which confirms the inherent bearishness in the general market.
Moving away from the intraday charts, let’s look at the daily chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022808-2336-intradayins2.png
I have drawn two potential triangle consolidation patterns on this chart.
First, let’s note that the market (and the Dow Jones Index pattern looks very similar) has found key resistance at a major horizontal line that has served both as resistance and support in the past.
The price is trapped between two trendlines (red) that are holding the market between these zones, and a breakout seems imminent, but may not come this week.
A second consolidation triangle (purple) has broken out to the upside and is experiencing a ‘throw-back’ test, which is actually a buy signal, but the target is so small that it is better to view price within the context of the overall red-line ascending triangle consolidation.
Watch out for the potential of a large volatility move either to the upside or the downside within the next few trading days.
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Bear Flags and Lower Prices
February 28th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
As I mentioned in last night’s blog post, index prices had hit probable resistance, formed a doji, and were poised to head lower. Today, prices headed lower, forming dual-bear flags as further confirmations.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022808-1658-bearflagsan1.png
Notice the first bear flag which set-up into yesterday’s price close. You have the first push down which is followed by a 45 degree angle retracement into the moving averages, which set up the flag pattern (which I missed viewing in my analysis last night).
This morning’s gap actually completed the flag pattern. Recall that the first play is to fade the gap, which gave a 50% fill before forming yet another near perfect bear flag pattern (which has currently hit its target):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022808-1658-bearflagsan2.png
It’s extremely rare to have two such bear flags back to back, especially where the initial ‘pole’ of the second flag is the measured move price projection from the previous flag. It happens, but it’s not common, and it’s often a sign of strong negative momentum. To be far, there is a slight momentum divergence occurring, and we have already had three pushes down (which could indicate exhaustion).
Also today’s action is a good educational lesson for Elliott Wave Theory. The intraday action so far has completed â
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Google Shatters $500 per share
February 27th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Today, Google (GOOG) shocked traders and investors alike, blowing past potential support at $500 per share and gapping down on significant volume to form a semi-hammer pattern.
Let’s look before describing the picture:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022708-0137-googleshatt1.png
First, notice the massive triangle break-down toward the end of 2007. This led to a large volatility price move to the downside as the new year began.
Recently, price completed a bear flag pattern after completing a measured move down.
Notice the 45 degree angle pullback to the falling 20 period moving average that set-up both an impulse sell trade and a bear flag retracement trade (short-sell).
Also, notice the massive volume on today’s trading (23 million shares!), indicating a large volume of shares trading hands. Are retail traders just now starting to sell or get short? Is it too late?
Although the pattern is very faint, today’s price action formed a hammer candlestick, which could potentially be bullish, as it has formed after a large downtrend move. Might price rally to attempt a gap close in the coming days?
What caused today’s downside move? UBS released a report saying that with a slowing economy, advertising revenue at Google would fall due to fewer companies buying advertisements through the company. Either way, it is a lesson that price shocks often occur in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Adam Hewison offers analysis on Google which includes pivot points and continuation patterns in his video post “Did Someone Ring the Bell on Google?”
It’s also a testament to how volatile high-flying Google can be both on the upside and the downside.
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Triangle Break Continues Despite Massive Negativity
February 26th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
The market continued to defy the odds today and make new (relative) price highs in a price continuation move out of the recent triangle pattern break.
This is a case where the technicals (price patterns) trump the fundamentals/news, as today otherwise would have been an immensely bearish day for the US Stock Market indexes.
Let’s start with the news.
Today, it was announced that the Producer’s Price Index rose 1% in January, exceeding economic expectations of a 0.4% gain. Also, the consumer confidence index declined and reports of stagflation resurfaced.
Stagflation occurs when an economy is contracting while inflationary pressures cause prices to rise. According to the Associated Press in the article “Worries Grow for Stagflation,” the situation creates a toxic economic mix the nation hasn’t seen in three decades: Prices are speeding upward at the fastest pace in a quarter century, even as the economy loses steam.
Typically, economic slowdowns curb inflation as consumers lose buying power, which reduces demand, but that doesn’t seem to be happening this time.
“The latest worrisome news came Tuesday: a government report showing wholesale prices climbed 7.4 percent in the past year. That was the biggest annual leap since 1981.”
And how do you think the market took this double-punch today? Did it fall 3% or more?
No, as I’ve already hinted, actually the market rose almost 1% today. The fact that IBM bought back shares helped, but was that enough news to combat the rampant bearishness inherent in these reports?
According to an MSNBC report, “The market is kind of overcoming negative news, which is potentially a next step toward higher prices,” said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “At least in the short-term, it’s a nice change here.”
As the adage goes, “Buy the rumor, sell the fact.” At any rate, let’s look at the chart and the continuation breakout from the recent triangle consolidation:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022708-0312-trianglebre11.png
As the news gets worse, price went higher. A measuring rule (of price projection) would take price just shy of Dow 13,000, which could happen as price has closed above the declining 50 period moving average on increasing momentum.
Volume, however, is failing to confirm higher index prices. Let’s see how this dual non-confirmation unfolds!
Check out sponsor MarketClub or INO.Com for more information and educational videos.
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Trader’s Whiteboard Educational Video
February 26th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Adam Hewison of INO.com has introduced a new series entitled “Trader’s Whiteboard” in which he shares basic education regarding trend, trading set-ups, risk management points, and targets.
In the first educational video,ÂAdam discusses how to identify a trend and how to take advantage of the trend with entries and exits once you identify this trend.
He discusses the classic pattern of higher highs and higher lows and explains clues that alert you to early trend reversal spots, including a couple of tactics used by the famous Turtle Traders.
Here is an example of this classic pattern as described by Adam:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/twhiteboard1.png
The video is 8 minutes in total and is certainly worth viewing for newer and developing traders, as it offers perhaps a different perspective and ideas.
I will try to keep you informed as to when new Trader’s Whiteboard lessons become available.
Feel free also to check out the Market Club for more structured ideas and education.
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Did the Triangle Break?
February 25th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Virtually every trader who uses charts has seen the recent symmetrical triangle forming in the major US Stock Market Indexes. Did we get a break-out buy signal today?
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022608-0231-didthetrian1.png
From the chart (and zoomed in image), it would seem that indeed we did have a triangle breakout buy signal today, but notice that it was not confirmed with higher volume (yet).
Notice also that there is key resistance overhead via the 50 period moving average, which is approximately 100 points away.
One thing to note is that almost everyone sees this triangle, and I assume that a majority would assume that the resolution would be to the downside. As such, there are likely to be stop-loss orders (to buy to cover) above the upper trendline, which were triggered today. Traders, anticipating a downside break, may have already entered short, only to have their positions currently underwater.
I’d like to see price cross the 50 period moving average on higher volume before getting super-bullish.
Until then, let’s wait for the market to tip its hand one way or the other before positioning ourselves too aggressively.
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Weekend Fly-by
February 24th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Let’s take a quick look at the weekly charts of key stocks or indexes to see what could happen in the weeks ahead.
First, the Dow Jones:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022508-0206-weekendflyb1.png
[*]New Momentum Low (blue dotted arrow) hints that lower index prices are yet to come.[*]Non-confirmation by volume (blue solid arrow) hints that the recent higher price swing was not confirmed by increased participation[*]Triangle consolidation (purple lines) reveal market consolidation, confirmed by reduced volume as the pattern formed, which hints at a large volatility move that’s upcoming[*]The index is in a downtrend, and the 20 period average has now crossed under the 50 period average (’death cross’)[*]The technical (chart) structure hints at lower prices aheadThe US Dollar Index:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022508-0206-weekendflyb2.png
[*]Confirmed and strong downtrend[*]Moving averages in most bearish orientation possible[*]Price cannot seem to breach the falling 20 period moving averageApple Inc (AAPL):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022508-0206-weekendflyb3.png
[*]Rising wedge completion, resulting in a large volatility move down[*]Momentum divergence accompanied the rising (bearish) wedge[*]New momentum low has formed, but on euphoric volume conditions[*]Volume has been receding as price has moved lower, serving as a non-confirmation of lower prices[*]Price has broken both the 20 and 50 period moving averagesThe week ahead should resolve the triangle on the US Stock Market Indexes, so be aware that a large volatility price move may come at any moment next week, and don’t get taken by surprise if it happens.
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Gold Triangles Break Upwards â
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February 22nd, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
I have been following Potash Corp for almost a year now, due to the stock’s stratospheric rise among all stocks, especially fertilizer producers.
The recent chart patterns have been interesting, including a major busted chart pattern which threw traders for a loop. Let’s look at the recent patterns that setup in this high-flying stock:
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-23 06:46 编辑 ]
Crude Oil Tests $100 and forms Range
February 20th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
I haven’t heard much about crude oil recently (other than it’s expensive) until today, when journalists are bemoaning another test of the $100 per barrel level. Let’s look at the recent history of this major global commodity and what it might mean for the markets:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022008-1654-crudeoiltes1.png
Three times since November, Crude Oil futures have tested the psychologically significant area of $100 per barrel. Will the third time be the charm that breaks prices through the recent tight and clear channel?
Notice how major support and resistance has developed at the $85 and $100 levels. These areas have become fixed in traders’ minds as levels that have worked in the past and serve as clear targets for stops, entries, and exits.
Eventually, the force of supply or demand will overcome one of these areas, but until then, we can only observe the price action and horizontal channel consolidation.
Notice the recent rapid ascent of the commodity from $85 to $100 in approximately two weeks. This represents massive strength on the side of the bulls.
Now that price has hit resistance, the market faces a major turning point. Should oil break $100 per barrel, it could have massive psychological significance on the US Stock Market (as well as global markets), pushing them lower. It may even be enough to cause US Stock prices to eject from their recent triangle consolidation (indecision) pattern.
Before we get too excited or bearish (or bullish, from a contrarian’s perspective), let’s peek at oil’s weekly chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022008-1654-crudeoiltes2.png
We see the same sort of consolidation pattern on the weekly chart, but we also see a momentum divergence. Momentum readings, as do all oscillators, lose a bit of their significance as price winds down to a low volatility, equilibrium point where swings have narrowed. The divergence is not as strong or telling as the divergence that occurred from October to December 2007, which presciently preceded the major high volatility price move from $52 to $100.
Could price be forming a bull flag style continuation pattern? Let’s hope not but we can’t overrule that possibility. It would seem highly unlikely, but anything can happen in the market.
Let’s continue to keep an eye on this commodity, and others, and focus on what strength here means for the US and global stock markets.
Check out MarketClub or INO.Com for more information and educational videos, including analysis by Adam Hewison on the current state of the gold and crude oil commodity markets.
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Market Still in Triangulation Zone
February 20th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
The US Stock Market still has failed to break its recent symmetrical triangle or coil pattern, and the pattern is still forming on the major indexes.
Let’s peek:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022008-1642-marketstill1.png
Most triangles resolve 66% to 75% of the way to the apex, and that is approximately where we are. Volatility has narrowed and typically price will eject into a trend move following these consolidation periods.
Triangles are mostly continuation patterns, meaning that the odds slightly favor resolution to the downside, but no pattern and no market prediction is ever 100% accurate, and this triangle could break to the upside as well.
Volume has also been declining as the triangle formed, which further confirms the pattern.
I drew the most recent triangle pattern, which occurred throughout the month of December. That particular triangle consolidation resolved to the downside. What will February’s consolidation do?
We’re currently in “wait and see” mode.
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Nasty but Interesting Intraday Action
February 19th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
The market action today was quite stellar, but ended lower after an amazing morning gap.
Let’s look at some of the set-ups and trades that you could have taken today:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022008-0124-nastybutint1.png
First, “fade the gap” which occurred over the weekend. The gap actually filled halfway (which classifies as an official full gap morning failure) into moving average support, which set up the “Impulse Buy” momentum trade.
A second pullback in the upwards price trend occurred around 1:00, which exceeded its price target (the most recent swing high) and then price pulled back but failed into the final hours with a massive breakdown that took price down $1,40 (140 Dow points) in less than 30 minutes.
Morning traders who were excited at economic news were slammed today, and their expectations of bullishness were dashed.
Let’s look the NASDAQ ETF (QQQQ) which was even more bearish than the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) today:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/022008-0124-nastybutint2.png
The initial gap fade play went further than the 50% retracement the Dow experienced, but also found significant support at the rising 50 period moving average and also set-up an “Impulse Buy” trade. The second pullback trade worked (but barely exceeded its price projection) and then price began to fail.
Notice the super-trade that occurred as price rallied up to significant resistance from the crossing (and simultaneous price) of the 20 and 50 period moving averages.
The final hour showed a positive momentum divergence before a massive 5-minute up-bar was observed.
Today offered many clear-cut trading signals and low-risk opportunities. If only every day was as easy as today.
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A Look at Bonds, Stocks, and the Fed Rate Cuts
February 19th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Continuing the thought from my last post asking whether Fed Rate Cuts are Actually Good for the Market, I thought I’d compare the 2 Year Treasury Note, 30 Year Treasury Bond, and the S&P 500 and overlay the recent Fed Rate Cuts on the comparison chart.
Let’s see what happened:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021908-1610-alookatbond1.png
The chart begins in June, 2007, when the Fed announced that it would likely stop raising interest rates for a period, and in fact, may begin cutting soon.
The Fed cut rates .50 basis points on August 17th, and then cut five additional times which have been marked on the chart with black lines at the bottom.
Notice how the S&P 500 responded to the first rate hike â
Is Fed Easing Actually Good for the Market?
February 18th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Is it really as simple as “When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it’s great for the market” or “When the Fed raises rates, it’s bad for the stock market”?
Michael Panzer of Financial Armageddon recently asked this question, as well as provided an excellent graph detailing stock market returns and Federal Funds rate at his post “Is Aggressive Fed Easing Really Bullish for Stocks?”
This is a concept I’ve been at odds with the financial media for quite some time, but I felt alone in my view.
Traditional thinking goes like this:
“When the Fed raises rates, it chokes off money supply through higher interest rates and decreases capital expansion, so it’s bad for the market. However, when the Fed lowers rates, it’s great for the market for the opposite reason. With lower cost of carry rates and lower interest payments, companies can take on more loans and expand their business, as well as the consumer can purchase more items (including bigger purchases like houses and cars) on credit or loans (or mortgages).”
That’s absolutely true, but what does it mean when the Fed raises or lowers rates?
Typically, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to prevent rampant inflation from runaway expansions caused by ‘easy money.’ If the Fed kept rates at 1%, then so many businesses would be expanding and consumers would be spending that inflation (through higher demand) will cause everyday prices to skyrocket as well.
The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to stimulate a weakening economy to encourage businesses to expand and consumers to spend. If weak economic conditions are present, or predicted through fundamental forecasts, then the Fed typically will choose to reduce rates to stimulate expansion.
That’s excellent, but let’s look at some of the underlying facts behind this:
The Fed raises rates when business conditions are “too good” and the economy is expanding or is expected to expand.
The Fed lowers rates when business conditions are “too bad” and the economy is contracting or is expected to contract.
How does that relate to the market?
The Stock Market generally rises when businesses conditions are good and the economy is expanding.
The Stock Market generally falls when business conditions are poor or deteriorating.
Keep in mind that the stock market anticipates economic conditions (discounts them) by a factor of three to six months in advance.
So what might it actually mean (in simplified terms) when the Fed raises or lowers rates?
When the Fed raises rates, it means economic conditions are good, and the stock market is expected to rise.
When the Fed lowers rates, it means economic conditions are poor (or becoming so), and the stock market is expected to fall.
Before you scream “foul,” let’s look at the excellent 10 year chart from Michael Panzer that expressed this sentiment far better than any words could:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021808-1641-isfedeasing1.png
(Image Credit: Financial Armageddon)
Notice that the market (S&P 500) was rising into 2000, and interest rates were rising as well.
Notice that the market began to stumble in 2000, and then fall, and Interest Rates fell right alongside the market.
Notice how the market bottomed in 2002/2003, and as the market rose through 2004-2006, the Federal Funds rate rose as well.
Finally, notice how the market fell in 2007/2008, and the Federal Funds rate fell as well.
Also, notice the flatline periods in the target rate. This indicates likely turning points in the campaign by the Federal Reserve, but also indicates long-term investment shifting points from into the market and out of the market.
A simple strategy (that flies in the face of conventional wisdom) might be buy stocks when the Federal Reserve is in a campaign of raising rates and be in bonds (which rise as rates fall) when the Federal Reserve is in a campaign of lowering interest rates.
The next time you hear a Wall Street pundit scream because the Fed raised rates, or jump with jubilation because the Fed lowered rates, think back to this chart and what that actually means.
(Post sponsor: MarketClub and INO.Com. Visit them for more market education)
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UTX Chart Wonders
February 17th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
United Technologies (UTX), component of the Dow Jones Index, has recently ended a multi-year uptrend through some highly volatile downside price action. Let’s look at the history of this stock’s chart pattern through the last few years:
Monthly Chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021708-2223-utxchartwon1.png
While the monthly chart shows a magnificent uptrend since 1997, the recent action represents a mere pullback or correction against the strong, underlying trend. Price has found support at the rising 20 period moving average, yet time will tell if the bulls continue to hold this area as support.
Notice the textbook symmetrical triangle pattern which unfolded exactly as the classic textbooks project. Notice the measuring rule (price projection) that achieved its target perfectly following the breakout of the triangle consolidation zone (purple arrows).
The 20 period MA has served as support in the past and we’ll see if it happens again this time.
Onto the Weekly Chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021708-2223-utxchartwon2.png
Again, we see a strong uptrend in price, and support coming from both the 20 and 50 period moving average.
Currently, price is trapped beneath these key averages, and the weight of force seems to be pushing price downward, as price broke the 50 period average briefly. The averages themselves still remain in the most bullish orientation possible, but price has now broken into a confirmed downtrend on the weekly chart (with lower high and lower low, combined with two new momentum lows and moving average violations).
While the fundamentals may still remain strong, even stocks like United Technologies can’t always overcome the pressure of a falling overall stock market.
Keep your eye on this stock. If the uptrend resumes, we could see higher prices yet to come, but it seems likely that price will attempt a test of the rising 200 period moving average at some point, which would take price down to $60 or below before making a new run higher. Let’s see!
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A Quick Look at the Weekly Charts
February 16th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Let’s look at how the weekly charts of the S&P 500, US Dollar Index, Commodity Index, and 30 Year Bond Index have set-up:
First, the US S&P 500:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021608-1835-aquicklooka1.png
The S&P 500 Index is currently trapped between the key moving averages, but is beneath the 20 and 50 period average. I have added arrows to highlight key support and resistance via the moving averages.
Price is in a confirmed downtrend, and is forming a possible consolidation (indecision) pattern. It would not surprise us if price re-tested the 200 period moving average.
The US Dollar Index:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021608-1835-aquicklooka2.png
The US Dollar Index continues to threaten to make new price lows, as the key moving averages are in the most bearish orientation possible, and have been so since early 2006. The 20 period average is serving as key resistance, and has done so numerous times.
A momentum divergence has developed, which has resulted in a price consolidation. Is a reversal at hand? The odds don’t seem to favor it.
Next, the $CRB Commodity Index (which often trends inverse the US Dollar):
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021608-1835-aquicklooka3.png
As expected, the Commodity Index responded to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to slash interest rates by rising precipitously, almost to the day from where the Fed started cutting.
Lower interest rates help fuel demand for certain commodities, and the fact that investors are turning to gold and other commodities for protection (hedge) against a possible global showdown has added fuel to the fire of the commodity boom.
Typically, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to protect against inflation, but higher commodity prices often translate directly into higher inflation (oil prices, etc), so what is the Fed to do? That’s a whole other lesson.
Finally, US 30 Year Bond Prices:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021608-1835-aquicklooka4.png
As the US Stock Market has been falling, US Bond Prices have been rising from a dual-pronged approach: Lower Yields (cut by the Fed) mean higher bond prices and also economic uncertainty has driven up investors’ appetite for bonds (as a less-risky asset).
Recall that these four markets (and many others) are often directly related, and price trends in one market affect price trends in other related markets. Inter-market analysis is a fascinating concept, and I recommend you study more if you aren’t sure how markets trend together or apart as a result of their underlying structure.
Visit sponsor MarketClub or INO.com (excellent educational videos) for more information.
Have a great weekend and de-stress a bit from the wild ride we had this week in the market. I’m sure more volatility is ahead!
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Great Divergence Resolution Example
February 16th, 2008 by Corey Rosenbloom
Friday in the stock market gave us an almost ideal example of the classic rolling momentum divergence and balanced shift in demand from sellers to buyers. Let’s view the pattern:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/021608-1816-greatdiverg1.png
This is the DIA 5-minute chart.
Notice the higher lows that continuously form in the momentum oscillator as price makes new intraday lows. Eventually, the price will (likely) reverse because of the rolling or balanced divergence.
This is exactly what happens, as the sellers fail to push prices lower and buyers take over the battle. It almost forms a perfect ’saucer’ type pattern on the chart as you can feel the momentum building.
Notice also in the example how the moving averages resist price until price eventually breaks through, when the averages serve to support price.
Although yesterday represented yet another ‘failed gap fade trade,’ it provided an excellent educational example of a rolling momentum divergence.
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